How did that happen?

So, how did that happen?

How did I take an originally interesting character and mellow him out to the point of blandness?  A character who most people responded to, especially the kind of people who are most likely the read the book?

Actually, I can think of all kinds of reasons.

1.) Part of it was my original training.  I worked with a pro when I started, took classes from him, and met with him fairly often.

His attitude was that you take that stuff out.  And he wasn't wrong.  I mean, I did get published.  But I also think he came from another era, and I think writing has changed. 

2.) Which goes into the second reason -- to make the plot work.  I needed to concentrate on plot, flesh out the other characters, and so on.  So I couldn't have the focus be only on the narration.

3.) I needed to make the main character sympathetic, so I toned him down, softened him.  Instead, now I see that his very problems are what can make him sympathetic, and the way he learns from them.

4.) People didn't always like the bracketed asides.  But all I really needed to do was keep the snark, drop the brackets.  (I kind of knew that, but still...)

5.) There were considerable anachronisms in the snark.  The narrator is old and immortal and since he's narrating, he might refer to any time or place, wordage or concept.   Again, that just needs to be explained by who and what he is.

6.)  I needed him to be consistent.  But -- in fact, if the VERY BASIS of his being is his inability to be consistent, I don't need him to be.  In fact, he can be consistently inconsistent.

7.)  I couldn't keep up the satire.  It's hard to be consistently interesting about pointing out the peccadilloes of humanity -- I mean, to be original about it.  I just didn't think I could keep up a full book of it.

The mistake I made was to think of it as satire, instead of behavioral.  It's the character's attitude I'm explicating, not the outside world.  The outside world observations are simply his reaction to them.

8.)  I was afraid a stronger tone would wear people out.  I'm still a little concerned about this.  But I'm not giving the reader enough credit, and frankly I'm giving myself too much credit.  In other words, I try to be outrageous and it usually comes out as a little more interesting...heh.

The best thing about this, is I'm excited by the book again, and I have to believe that will translate to the reader.

Putting back the snark.

I was waiting for my tech guy Aaron to show up yesterday, to help get started the process of making an e-book, when a light went off in my head.

It's early, but I really believe I may have found the 'third wave' improvement for I'M ONLY HUMAN.

I need the main character, who is the narrator,  to be absolutely over the top.  Crazy, weird, strange.  Make him sloppy and messy and constantly having to fix the messes he gets into and ... just ramp him up to 11, man.

I started getting excited by the idea.  For one thing, it adds a lively tone, for another it gets me involved --- Cobb is me, in the end -- and it gives me motivation to make the book better again.

I thought I was done a few days ago, at least for the time being.  I was going to make a couple of copies and try to get a couple people to read it, and then set it aside.  Come back in a few weeks or months, or whenever I came up with something that I thought would improve it.

The book is O.K.  It's as good as I can do.  It all flows, and it's got some interesting ideas. But it just wasn't THERE.   In the course of rewriting and making it work, I'd also kind of flattened it.

That's the safer route.

I think the prospect of actually putting the book out made me analyze what I was expecting.  And I decided that, ironically, what might be good enough to send to publisher needed to be better for an e-book.

In other words, the opposite of what I expected.

The e-book would be immediately judged, therefore it need to make an impact.  It's better to take the chance of it being too much, of it being over-the-top,  than of having it be too little, too staid.  I was trying so hard for consistency, that I'd lost some spark.

I decided I could just let the character remark on everything in the strongest terms, even if it contradicted other things, or didn't seem appropriate, or whatever.  Because I set the terms of what the character is, and explained why  he's acting that way. 

So anything goes.   Anything.

What did I have to lose?

So what was I missing?

My sub-conscious had already been working in this direction -- I had already decided that I needed a stronger narrator voice in the third wave, whatever it was.  What I didn't realize was, the stronger voice WAS the third wave.

I'm guessing, I'm betting if I'm right, that many of the incongruities of the plot that I wasn't able to smooth out will be explained by the new tone.

Yesterday, I decided that not only did the main narrator/character need to be stronger, but it needed to be CRAZY, erratic, unpredictable, SURPRISING, all over the place --  and so on.  He's trying to be human, and mostly failing, and while he's at it he's making remarks about people and things.

Anything goes, I decided.  Just be a loose cannon.

So I preceded to rewrite the first chapter right then and there, and damn if I don't think it improved it dramatically.  What had seemed an 11 when I wrote it -- over the top -- once it was actually incorporated, actually seemed to fit right in.

The trick I used was to not refer to the original manuscript, but to think about what the chapter was about and have him riffing on it, then mixing it in.

As it happened, I had just read the same chapter at writer's group last time because I thought it was the most polished of all the chapters I had.  So I took the newly written chapter.

They liked it much better.  Thank goodness.  Sometimes I get these enthusiasms where I think I've made a dramatic change, and I get shot down.  Here, I got the reaction I needed and wanted.

"I just went for the original snark," I said.

"Can you keep it up?" they asked.

"I can be snarky all day..." I said. 

I hope it's true.  That will be the test.  Maybe there are only so many ways to be Snarky.  But even that can part of the process -- as he becomes more human, gets it right more often, feels the appropriate reactions, I can still have a strong narrator voice remarking on those very things.

Ironically,  the second chapter, which used to be the first chapter, had become a bit of a problem while rewriting because I had started the book originally with a strong narrator voice, and kind of a snarkey tone. 

Until yesterday, I was thinking that tone didn't fit the rest of the book. 

But you know what?  The rest of the book didn't fit that tone.  I had it right the first time.  And I think that everyone who read that first chapter more or less responded to it.  Everyone had liked my little asides, my snarky comments.

That response was what I was missing.  The story read, and the plot now makes more sense, and everything was hunky dory -- but it was missing the original narrator voice.

Anyway, back to the drawing board for one last try -- hopefully moving up that third level I'm always talking about.

All the work I did to try to improve the book is still there.  The plot was improved significantly, and changing the narrator voice doesn't really change that.  (Here and there, it will, but the basics are all there:  the background, the characters, the plot.)

Finally,  since I'm trying to punch the book up, I've decided I'M ONLY HUMAN is  too generic for the final title.  I need something better.  Something less generic and more memorable and catchy.  So I'll be thinking about that, too.

So this has turned into a two year process -- something I thought I could knock off in a couple of months...

This game looks the same, but isn't.

So it begins:

"Fantasy Flight Games has announced the early 2013 release of a new, less expensive version, of Reiner Knizia’s award-winning Ingenious board game, which will be available at the lower MSRP of just $29.95. 

"...The new lower priced mass market edition of Ingenious offers virtually the same gameplay as the original (though the rules do not include the “solo” version). The major difference is that the tiles are made out of punchboard not plastic, and there are no separate stands for a player’s tiles (in this version the tiles in a player’s hand fit into slits on the edge of the game board). The new version of Ingenious comes packaged in a colorful 10” x 10” x 2” game box."


Actually, it already happened with Apple to Apples a few years ago, and probably some other games I'm talking about.

So here are three elements that make this dangerous:

1.)  It's "mass market" version, which means it won't be offered to hobby shops.
2.)  It's got a lower Manufacturers Suggested Retail Price.
3.)  It's a crappier version made with inferior parts but no one will know that.
 

I have to disagree with (commenter) Mark about whether these games are going to start selling more and more in the mass market.

Only two things you have to ask yourself.  Are they selling?  And can they be manipulated into cheaper versions?

If the answer is yes, than of course the mass market will carry them.

But instead of it being a special word-of-mouth thing, it will be ubiquitous.  Instead of being finely made, it will be cheap.  Instead of hand-sold by a human, they will be mass sold by a juggernaut.

Nothing will change this trajectory.

As far as Mark's point that the mass market can't carry all the games.  They don't have to.  They could carry the top 20 best-selling games, and they can scoop up at least 80% of the profits.  Frankly, they might be able to do that with  the top 5 to 10 games.

Even carrying "exclusive" (cheaper) versions of Settlers of Catan and Ticket to Ride would put a dent in my ability to carry the rest of the games.

It's all part of the deal.  You can't subvert the best parts of the deal and expect it to hang together.



 

Improve, patience, improve.

Well, I think I'm done for now.

101,000 words.

A nifty "high concept."  Some good stuff, some stuff I struggled with.

I'M ONLY HUMAN is about as good as I can currently get.  I think it's much improved, but whether it's good enough I don't know.  Some chapters are 90% of the way there, others are probably more like 70% of the way there. (Held back by structural plot problems that are hard to fix.)

I'd estimate the book to be in about the quality I once would've sent off, and  since I was only occasionally successful back in the day -- I'm not sure what that says.

I'm still hoping Jared is still willing to help me put it online -- maybe not with the big production we once envisioned, but something more than just throwing it out there and hoping for the best.  If you're reading this, Jared, give me a shout.

Another run through might be in order, once I get a little more feedback.  But the basic book is there.

How about that?

So I think I've learned again that I can get 50% of the way there in the first draft, relatively easy.  The equivalent of writing this blog, which I write with very little work drama.  That is, I try to make it readable, but I don't agonize over it.

So the second and third drafts get me another 30% of the way there, and are much harder to write and take way more patience.

Then, it's diminishing returns with each draft, small incremental improvements that take a long time and conscious effort.  I'm running up to the limits of my skill level, which need lots of time and work to improve.

I think it was this realistic assessment of my abilities that made me stop writing 25 years ago.  Not because I didn't think I was good enough, but that I wasn't good enough without enormous effort with very little return.

Having a new family and a new business, something had to give.

For many reasons, I made the right choice.  But now I have time to write again, and I'm very much enjoying it.

I'm trying to hold myself to the same standards -- or with a little patience even higher standards -- as when I had an agent and was trying to get paid for my books by publishers.  I'm trying to avoid the temptation to throw anything I write into e-books without working at it.

Hell, that may even be a mistake.  Maybe sheer volume of stuff is the way to go, learn to write that way.  An argument could be made.

But again, I'm trying to hold my feet to the fire.

Improve, patience, improve.


Linda,  reminded me that I should really thank those who have read my manuscripts.

I'm enormously thankful for this, and know how much effort it takes.  I use every single suggestion I'm given, and they could be even harder on me if they wanted to be.

Believe me, I'm know what a gift this is. 

Fixing by cutting.

I was struggling with a chapter, and I decided to cut about 60% of it.

It can be a daunting thing, to cut your own words.  Before you do it, you're pretty sure you'll feel a sense of loss.

But then you do it, and it feels very liberating, somehow.  You've just fixed the problem in the most elegant of ways -- eliminating it altogether.

Chances are, if nothing you're doing can fix it, it probably shouldn't be there.  This realization can be a long time coming.

If you have parts of the book that feel right to you, and parts that don't -- what happens if you just keep the parts that feel right?  Do you still have a book?  If so, then you should cut.

Makes me wish I was one of those people who overwrite the first time, instead of the kind of writer who has to fill it all in later.


Plowed through a bunch of chapters.  Also drank some beer and wine. (leftovers, argggh.)   Almost finished.

You know what?  I like it.  It's a decent book.

I just want to be patient enough to try to make it better.

I've created another "reading" copy, where all the elements are in place, and now I need to refine it.
However, leaving myself open to changes probably means there will be changes.

I still have a couple of problem chapters, including the original first chapter -- the chapter that propelled me into writing the book.  Now, the original tone doesn't quite fit.  I'm not sure how much to change it, actually.  It's not completely out of place, just slightly tonally off.  On the other hand, it's got some charm that might pull some people further into the book.  Undecided.

After I'm done with this draft, I'm setting it aside for a month or two, and give myself a chance to come back fresh.

Sunday suds.

I've given up Fridays for work.  Not scheduled hours, but all the other things.  Stocking, banking, errands, shopping, etc.  Also, since the day is used up, movies.  (Why isn't Lincoln in town?)

So I have all the creative energy that I usually spend on writing fiction, and thus more time to write on my blog.

Everything is a story, these days.  Of course, not every story is interesting.  Too bad.  It gets written.

**********

We were watching Obama cry yesterday, and I turn to my wife and sure enough, she's tearing up.  She always tears up whenever she sees someone else tearing up. She tears up for Hallmark commercials.  If I feel the slightest twinge, I'll glance over and sure enough....

So immediately after that, she says,   "I've got my rivers too wide."

Now, we've talked before about how thin her "dream-walls" are, and how close to the surface her emotions are, so I'm thinking she's talking metaphorical.

"I need to narrow them," she says.

"No you don't, " I assure her.

She looks at me, puzzled.  "Yes, I do.  On my maps, I've got them too wide."

"What?"

"You know,  in my story...."

Anyway, we had a good laugh about that.

**********

Went to see Skyfall.

A car got the biggest response, followed by the original theme music.

Cool movie.

**********

Can the Ducks close the deal?

Not just making it to the championship, but winning the final game?

Am I cursing them by asking these questions?

**********

So traveling around with a hot woman half your age who idolizes you turns out to be a bad idea?

Tactics, General, Tactics.

Remember von  Clausewitz's "Fascinating Trinity"  :  (#1)" a blind impulse, located in the people and their passions...." (Wiki)

Intuition is mediocre.

There was an interesting article on intuition: "The Science of What We Call Intuition." BRAIN PICKINGS.

Basically, it said that as you become more experienced at something and as you gain more knowledge, intuition becomes easier.

But that most people stall at this point.

To become an expert after you've got intuition down, you have to determine to learn again.

I think this is where I'm at with writing.  I've done enough of it, that I'm O.K. at it -- the intuitive part is relatively easy.

But I'm not an expert.

"...people tend to go through three phases while they improve their performance. During the first phase, the beginner focuses her attention simply on understanding what it is that the task requires and on not making mistakes. 

In phase two, such conscious attention to the basics of the task is no longer needed, and the individual performs quasi-automatically and with reasonable proficiency. Then comes the difficult part. Most people get stuck in phase two: they can do whatever it is they set out to do decently, but stop short of the level of accomplishment that provides the self-gratification that makes one’s outlook significantly more positive or purchases the external validation that results in raises and promotions. 

Phase three often remains elusive because while the initial improvement was aided by switching control from conscious thought to intuition—as the task became automatic and faster—further improvement requires mindful attention to the areas where mistakes are still being made and intense focus to correct them. Referred to as ‘deliberate practice,’ this phase is quite distinct from mindless or playful practice.




The way I was putting it, I'm at the second level of book.

To get to the next level, I need to pay "mindful attention" to what I'm doing.  Make what I'm doing "deliberate practice."

I was bemoaning that it wasn't fun, and that it was work, and that this was stopping me.  But I think I just have to realize this is the price of getting better.  I could go off and write thing after thing on an intuitive level, and it would all be all right, and no doubt I'd learn something each time.

But to get better is going to require that I work at it.  I'll try to  have fun, but ultimately, I have to step back and put some time and effort into it.

Dammit.

More math.

I decided to calculate the game sales over the last five years, as well.  (Not counting card games, which I've always carried.)

This category has had more of the steady type increase that I was envisioning was happening with books.

When I started getting serious about boardgames, they were about 60% as big as book sales.  Currently, games are within 92% as big as book sales.

Game sales are two and a half times bigger now, than they were in 2006-07.

So why don't I feel as confident about game sales as I do books, since they are nearly as big and have had a much steeper trajectory of growth?

Simply put:  I believe the downside is big, and the upside is small.

I fully expect the chainstores to start carrying more and more boardgames, and at cheaper prices than I can compete.  Much of this kind of competition in books is already factored in, up to and including digital.  That is, I see room for improvement despite the competition in books. 

And I think there is a ceiling to how big the game category can grow.  Unlike books, where I think the sky is the limit.


Finally, I'm going to give myself a big pat on the back for having the guts to grow two new categories during the Great Recession. (This is really tough to do -- investing while you're making less money takes brass, if I do say so myself.)

 I believe this is why I've been able to stay in business, because I've always been willing to take chances exactly when logic would tell me to be more careful.

It's when things are bad that you have to make improvements.

Otherwise, why do it?

I was reading another Ode to the Demise of the Book, and wondering if I'm just kidding myself.

So let's do some math.

I looked at booksales (new and used) between Nov. 2006 thru Oct. 2007 and then every 12 month period thereafter.

Pegasus Books first started carrying "new" books in mid - 2006,  just before the crash.

First of all, we've seen a 40% increase in sales over 5 years.

We saw roughly 15% increases in each of the first two years.

Then had very incremental increases over the next two years.

Over the last year, we've seen a 20% increase.


Of course, as I always try to say, sales aren't as important as profits.  But I've been able to order books when I need them, and they've never been much of a cash-flow problem (unlike dated material, such as comics and cards, which I have to order in advance, whether sales at the time they arrive are good or not.)  The mix of new and used books, makes the profit margin pretty good.

I had been under the impression that we've had steady increases in sales -- witness the 40% increase overall.

So the two static years, Nov. 2009 thru Oct. 2011, are a bit of a surprise.

What I don't know is what would happen if I went all in.  I've been tempted, let me tell you.  My feeling is there is an opportunity for growth, despite all the doom and gloom, and the 20% increase over the last year is certainly encouraging.

There's a possibility that I may completely renovate the store from top to bottom early next year, though this still has to be negotiated.  If I do it, I'll be buying new fixtures that will make better use of the space, and probably concentrate on printed material. 

So I'll be putting my money where my  mouth is.

I'm relatively certain I can increase my sales on books -- but whether I can get back the investment costs on fixtures and the cost of renovating before I retire, that's a separate question.  

Probably a stupid financial decision, but a gratifying one.

I kind of want my business to be gratifying.  It pretty much always has been, because I allow myself this latitude.

Otherwise, why do it?

He Got Eaten!!

A customer yesterday.

"I started watching Walking Dead, and you remind me of the guy on top of the R.V."

"What?!  He's OLD!"

End of conversation.

I'm still sputtering.

1.)  He's OLD!

2.) He wears hats. I NEVER wear hats!

3.) He's good at mechanics, I'm terrible at mechanics!


Still, it could be worse.

I'm reading way too much into this, I know, but I think that guy was the "conscience" of the little band of survivors. 

Metaphorically, when he died, so did the "conscience" if you will.

Oh, and one other thing.

HE GOT EATEN!

Getting ugly on Facebook.

Had two different customers talk about how it was getting ugly on Facebook.  Nasty, racist comments about Obama.

"So are these 'Friends' of yours?"

"Oh, no.  These are friends of friends."

"Still..."

"Oh, they've already taken down the comments."

Still, I think to myself.

Yeah, I'm guessing there are some ugly comments being made out there, and with Six Degrees of Separation, a whole lot of Facebook users are going to hear them.

Doesn't make me want to do Facebook, I can tell you.

Black November.

When did November become such an awful business month?

I mean, no harm done -- I factor it in, these days.

Still, it's somewhat startling to have an hour go by without anyone coming in the door.  To suddenly be below the yearly average by a good 20%.

Last year in November was extraordinarily slow.  Which is why I'll probably have another up month this year, in spite of what I'm saying here.

But overall, November has become the worst month of the year.

This is relatively new, for us.  Back when I started, kids were a major factor in my  business -- so much so, that we'd have these big cliffs we'd fall off of in September and January.  Those used to be the 'Black' months.

But in the last decade, September has turned into a pretty decent month.  January and February aren't as bad as they used to be.  But October and November, April and May are much worse.

In some ways, the extremes aren't there as much.  Not so much cliffs, as slides.

Anyway, I can think of a few factors.

1.)  Kids aren't my main customers.

2.) Tourists have become more important, as well as adults in general.

3.) Bend itself, and especially downtown Bend, has become even more tourist oriented.  So in these gaps in coverage -- the Novembers, the Aprils, I notice the dropoff much more.

What I'm saying here, is that we all of us -- well, at least those of us in downtown -- are depending on Bend being a draw.  That's why I voted for, and was glad to see it pass, the park bond.

The more amenities Bend has, the bigger the draw.  The bigger the draw, the more amenities.

Let's keep the virtuous cycle going.

Hey, this is supposed to be fun.

As you know, I've been talking about "wrastlin'" with my rewriting, using words like drudgery, and tiresome, and hard work.

I was in my store yesterday, and picked up a Stephen King book at random and read a couple of pages, and it was no fuss, no muss.  It read:  easy-like.

Now, I know getting that effect probably isn't as easy as wanting that effect.

Still, I think I need to get back to concentrating on the fun part of writing.  I'll finish this rewrite the way I planned, but try not to think of it as a chore.

Then, I'll look each time at what I can do that will be fun to do, and keep it going that way.

Also, going to quit sweating the publishing part.  I wanted to get published again just to prove I can do it.  But what do I have to prove? 

I hated the waiting, I hated the trying to find viable venues, I hated the rejections.  I hated that the publishers had so much power, and that it seemed somewhat arbitrary and ambiguous and arrogant and...

Then again, just putting it online with no effort isn't much use either.

Oh, well.  Finish the books, enjoy the process -- and maybe something will pop up.

Just concentrate on the fun of it.

Knowing a fad when you see one.

There is a surprised comment on an industry blog I frequent (Comic Reporter) that anime and manga might have been a "fad."

I always suspected they were.

Not that they don't have a core constituency.  The thing about hard core followers however, is that they aren't very good customers.  I hate to say it.

Stands to reason.  The more you are a follower of something, the more sources you're going to find.  The more you buy, the more likely you are to use those sources to find the cheapest prices.  (I don't think I'm giving away any secrets to say that you can always find something cheaper if you're willing to look hard enough.)

No, I do better with the person just getting in on the fad, or the casually interested.  Hell, on the way up, I can even sell to the hard core if I have what they want and they don't want to wait.

Why did I think it was a fad?

It had all the characteristics.

It was something that everyone had to have today, even though they hadn't heard of it yesterday, and so the chances were, they wouldn't want it tomorrow.

It's always dangerous to build a business on a fad.  Always dangerous to buy based on current high demand that can dry up to nothing overnight.

Anything that isn't central to our lives -- let's say, cellphones, for instance -- that grows exponentially, is  probably a fad.

The other thing about anime and manga fandoms was that they were heavily populated by 10-14 year old boys and girls.

Here's the thing:  15 year old boys and girls absolutely disdain what their 12 year old selves loved.  (Not always, sometimes the love is pure, thus creating a hard core fan -- see above problems with that...)

When sales for manga first started falling off, and the question of fadness first came up, the explanation was that the core constituency was "getting older."

But that's just it.

That just proves the point.  If it wasn't a fad, then there should have been a new generation of followers, and then another.

 Even knowing what I know, I got somewhat trapped by anime and manga -- mostly because I underestimated this generation's willingness to drop the retail version for the pirated version.  (We're in for some interesting times...)  I way overstocked, and as long as I was building stock, sales seemed fine. When I tailed off to try to actually make money, that demand for new product kept coming, but I wasn't being sufficiently rewarded on what I'd already bought.

So I nearly quit, had a big sale for a year or so, and then tiptoed back in carrying only the top ten or twenty titles in each category.

Manga and anime, were more of a fad than the followers were willing to acknowledge -- which is just another sign of a fad.

So, here I'll reverse course a little.  Wabi Sabi is catering to the hard core, and I think they can do some business there.  And there is enough intrinsically interesting product that it can capture the casual walk-in customer.  There is a core constituency to Japanese stuff and a broad enough range of material, to justify a business model to caters to it.  Something will probably come along every year or two under the umbrella of that product mix that will pay off.

But the huge slug of manga that came through the system a few years ago, is probably gone.  Anime is going to struggle because no one wants to pay the high prices, especially when they can get it free.

Borders and Barnes and Noble both dove into manga big time.  For a few years it was held as a cudgel over the heads of comic retailers that we were "stupid and shortsighted" for not expanding our base of customers, and how manga was the future and thus the big chains had done the right thing and we had done the wrong thing.

I think the big boxes had it wrong, and we comic retailers might have had better instincts about what was coming.

Not that we shouldn't have carried manga and anime, only that we were right not to bet the farm on them.  


Speaking of which:  my boardgame selection gets bigger and bigger.  Every holiday season I wonder if this is the year the big box stores will get a clue and undercut me.

Then again, I have 100's of games and it's a little hard to believe that any of these store would be willing to devote as much time and space and attention as I do, keeping up with the newest games and expansions.

Then again again, they wouldn't really have to.  They could carry 5 to 10 games -- Settlers of Catan, Dominion, Munckin, Ticket to Ride, and so on, and capture over half the sales.

It's always best for me when a trend stay simmering for a long time, instead of boiling over.   Reading the tea leaves, I'm going whole hog again this year.

Hope I'm right.

Something to be said for continuity.

Often the thing to do when faced with challenges is just keep doing what you're doing -- that is, if you're doing your best. 

Hope and change sound good, but keep on doing the work that needs to be done.

I've found continuity to be a valuable asset to my business.  Same business hours for decades, same location, same basic strategies.  Not to say I don't change, but I do make changes in a measured,  thought out way.

The stock market is having a tempter tantrum, and I pay about as much attention to that as I would a 3 year old being denied ice cream.

I was impressed last night by how little Obama's support has changed, despite four years of being ragged on by talk radio and a cable news channel.  Sure, it was a little less, but that's not surprising considering.  The basic support was there.

Got to mention Nate Silver.

You know that when you're partisan, you can be in danger of falling into a virtual reality.  I try to avoid the bubble, forcing myself to read mainstream and even slightly right leaning news outlets.  So my clinging to FiveThirtyEight had the potential of being nothing but a security blanket.

Except that he appears to have been almost 100% right in his predictions.

As Colbert said about it:  "Statistics have a well known liberal bias."

I think that Obama is a centrist.  Personally, I think he should stare down the Republicans and say, "Go ahead, go off the cliff.  I'm going to let the tax measures lapse, otherwise, and there isn't a thing you can do about it."

He won't do that, of course.  He'll try to find a compromise.

I'm not hopeful.

Sure, we might have had more movement if Romney was elected.

Bottomline, it would've been movement in the wrong direction.

Your puzzlement at me, is the same puzzlement I feel toward you.

I'm going to go ahead and say this, when I don't know the outcome of the election, so it will mean something.

As a country, we seem to have split in half.  Not just sort of disagreeing with each other, but complete polar opposites.

You know how I know?

Because I hear the exact same puzzlement directed at me from the other side, that I feel toward them.

As if there are two alternate realities.

Just saying.

Still wrastlin' words.

I've rewritten about 25% of the chapters.  I'm making so many changes that it's becoming another "rough" draft, instead of a reading copy.

So be it.

It's going to take at least 2 years to finish this thing, which is unexpected.  One of the reasons I started writing again was because I thought I could just dish it out, the way I write my blog.

Hasn't turned out that way.  The book gets steadily more complicated and layered.  I throw out things that work well on their own -- stuff that might read well as a single chapter read on a single day -- for the overall feel of the book.  So no one chapter is designed for immediate impact but all chapters are designed for the overall impact.

That's what a book is, I think.

I've created two new chapter breaks, and the novel is currently 99,370 words.  I'm guessing that fleshing it out is going to add another 10,000 to 20,000 words.

Which means that the next draft I can cut anything that doesn't work without worrying about not having enough book.

I believe I've improved it dramatically, so that now I'm slightly embarrassed by the edition  I got everyone to read earlier.  I see that draft trying to get by on ideas, but which read flat -- without forward momentum or suspense.

But it's all  part of the process.

As soon as I'm done with this draft, I'll go back to The Reluctant Wizard.  I'm going to try to do some outlining for that book before I set in to actually rewriting it.  Don't know if that will work, because most of my ideas actually come from writing.

Meanwhile, in the current book, I've pretty much thrown out the "what" mystery that I had in earlier drafts.  It wasn't working -- it just seemed ingenuous.  The main character kept questioning what was obvious.

But I'm playing up the "when" mystery more, which I hope creates more suspense, as well as the implicit, "why and how."

Pretty vague, I know.  I've always been a bit more protective of the actual plot of this book, even though I know no one is out to steal it or anything -- but the 'high concept' part of the book, if not the actual book, is 'steal-able' if you will.

Dressed to write.

I have to get dressed before I can start writing -- or anything else, for that matter.  I can only stay in my bathrobe if I'm sick.  Unlike Linda, who can lounge all day in her jammies.

"It's comfortable," she says.

"Too comfortable," I says.

Anyway, I've been sitting down around noon, after doodling with the intertubes for hours, reading the paper, drinking my coffee.

The two little tricks I'm using seem to work.  The idea that if I sit down for 5 minutes doing anything that I'll probably continue, and the rewriting of chapters at random.

Each chapter seems wildly different in what they need -- some I can't figure much else to do, except tighten the language up.  Others need to be reorganized -- at this point, moving paragraphs or sentences around.  Others new information can be added, and old information cut.

I'm bound and determined to get this rewrite under my belt while the whole book is still in my mind.
For instance, I described one character in one chapter, and the next chapter I work on,  I had described him completely differently.  That sort of thing.

Well, this blog is a bit of procrastination, frankly. 

Better get to work.  (I wish I didn't see it as work -- why do other people seem to like rewriting and I find it tiresome?)

One more day.

I predict whichever side wins, the other side will say they stole it.

I predict Constitutional crisis, and protests in the streets.

I predict more states will do voting by mail, but not the states that are the problem.

I predict the stock market will do what the stock market will do, and whoever wins will take the blame or the credit.

I predict the economy will either go up or go down, and whoever wins will take the blame or the credit.

I predict a deadlocked Congress.

In other words, pretty much the same.

Rewarded for stupidity. Bank of the Cascades.

I don't have anything against Bank of the Cascades personally.

I just didn't like how they played the game.  Trumpeting success when they were really setting themselves up for failure.  That bugged me.  Has bugged me since I first started writing this blog in November of 2006.  (Hey -- six years!!!)

Because it was pretty clear the Emperor had no clothes.  Over investing in commercial real estate during a bubble is a boneheaded thing to do; even if it makes you look good in the short run.  Assets do not equal profits.

It also somewhat bugged me that it seemed like the management at the time got out with their reputation and finances intact.  Maybe they didn't.  I don't know.  Give credit where it is due. Somehow, the current management of the bank has kept them alive -- which is impressive, considering how far off the road they wandered.

It has always bugged me when someone is doing short-sighted things and getting rewarded for it.  I'm in business for the long haul. It's my career.  I intend to see it through to the end.

So when I watch competitors go trotting by doing stupid things and have customers tell me how great the other guy is doing, I just shrug it off these days.  I have to look at the internal dynamics and figure I'll come out the other side, no matter what happens to the other guy.

Hey, the other guy may just continue to overperform, because he's just so damn good and smart and hard working and lucky.  Good for him.

But more likely, he'll trend back toward average, or whatever he was doing that was making him look so good wasn't real.  Even worse, whatever he was doing that made him look like he was doing so well was actually a negative.

This goes for the big boys too.  I think the big boxes are bound to collapse eventually.  I think Amazon has a stupid business model -- and is hurting everyone else because of it.

Again, I go back to sports cards.  I had tons of competitors succeed in taking my market share away, and it looked like they were doing great.  I knew what they were doing wasn't possible.  I mean, how long can you sell for under cost?

They are all gone.  The industry is in tatters. Not only didn't do me any good, but it didn't do anyone any good to go for short term profits and market share, without using a lick of sense in building a viable business model.

But hey, as long as they look like everything is great, it's all good, right?