Charming economic news, heh?

Seems to me that we should be asking "Destination Resorts" to build the destination resort part of their business plan first. You know, the hotels and overnight lodging.

If they can't do that, then we need to figure that A.) they aren't meant to be destination at all and B.) they probably aren't viable except as subdivisions.

Not that the problem is going to come up again anytime soon.

**********

Original predictions about the length of this recession (and Central Oregon has never come out of the recession, in my opinion) seemed to be holding. 7 to 10 years. I start the beginning from August, 2007, though officially it didn't start until early 2008.

So four years in, and we are in the midst of another bear market and lowering employment and high foreclosures and lower sales and prices on houses.

It appears from this morning article in the Bulletin on jobs, that the biggest increase has been in "leisure and hospitality" and "accommodation and food services" and "retail."

Which is just another way of saying "Minimum Wage."

Bend's industry is tourism and retirement and those are mostly minimum wage jobs and I'll be damned if I can see what will ever change that.

**********

"Another Recession Unlikely."

Hah.

**********

"Baby Boomers weight down market."

"...baby boomers dumping stocks to branch into more conservative investments as they retire."

Not mentioned is that these baby boomers will probably be going backward in their net worth, because "conservative investments" won't be generating much. Leaving less net worth for the next generation.

My advice, should you choose to take it...

This tape will self-destruct.

Ten years ago, I wouldn't have presumed to give anyone advice about business. I was coming out of some disastrous business decisions (mostly related to over-expanding and bubbles, sound familiar?). I was still deep in debt.

Oh, sure. I could've given advice based on "what not to do" which would have been valuable, but who would listen?

I probably still need to point out basics like -- I may be wrong. Your mileage may vary. In my humble opinion.

But there are so many missteps that I see small businesses make, that I feel like I need to point out alternative ways of doing things.

I made most of the beginner mistakes -- but fairly early on, I ran across a book called "Growing a Business" by Paul Hawken, who advised that you grow your business within your means, that you don't get caught up in accouterments, and that you focus on basics. Sure, he was a promotional type of guy -- his book was proof of that, but my leanings against promotions came later.

I tried any number of advertisements and promotions, and I'll be damned if any of them really worked. At least, if you start adding up the time, energy, space, and money costs. Not to mention the complications and stress.

I'd drive all the way over the Portland to make a few hundred bucks at a convention, until I came to my senses. I'd add up the costs of staying late in order to host tournaments, or special events. I'd add up the costs of advertising and try to discern even the slightest benefit. I'd wrestle the online auction world, only to come away frustrated with minimal results. (Strange how I would always come up short at the end of the month at exactly the same amount that I spend on advertising; even stranger that I stopped coming up short at the end of the month when I quit.)

Another beginner mistake I made was to keep my prices artificially low. I had a perfect opportunity to charge suggested retail price (SRP) for sports cards during the five years I more or less had a monopoly. I probably charged about 20% less than I should have -- I did not foresee the day when a 20% discount would no longer be enough -- nor a 30% discount, or a 40% or a 50%. No, I had to pay people to be customers.

I also learned my lessons about bubbles. Sport cards, comics, magic, non-sports cards, beanie babies, pogs, Pokemon, all exploded in size and then collapsed, leaving wreckage. I became so attuned to it, that I could see the housing bubble a mile away, and prepared for literally years for the day when it would all come tumbling down.

Anyway, much of my advice is directed to people so that they can avoid making the same mistakes I did. I feel more comfortable about giving that advice since the last 5 years have been among my best years, profit-wise, despite it being the biggest downturn since the Great Depression.

I also had to opportunity, with my wife Linda, to open a used bookstore, The Bookmark, where we were able to have a fresh start, and apply all the lessons we had learned.

And darned if it didn't work.

So again, I remind people it all IMHO and YMMV advice. You can take it or leave it.

Define "Best."

Sad news that a major comic chain, Atomic Comics, in Phoenix is closing.

This was a four store chain that was a major player in the comic world, hosting myriad signings and events. In fact, if you watched the movie KickAss, you saw one of his stores.

So I don't really know what might have caused this demise, but I'm always somewhat bemused by how many people pop up to eulogize some stores. (The best thing they could've done would have been to buy from his stores instead of crying crocodile tears....)

Anyway, you read comments like this was the "best" store, or the "best" retailer around.

Well, define "best." Because if he was the best retailer, he wouldn't be going bankrupt. And if his stores were the best, then they would have kept enough business to keep going, right?

I'm just saying. What the customer sees and what the retailer needs to do to survive can be two different things.

Yes, there are outward forces that can cause a store to close, but ultimately it is up the retailer to negotiate those forces. Its a fine line between doing so much for the customer -- spending so much money on services, lowering margins so much that you gain the customer but lose the profit, and so on -- and doing what you need to do to stay in business. In the best of all worlds, you can try to do both; but a store that can't turn a profit isn't doing the customer any favors in the long run.

I've always tried to tell my customers. I want a profitable store so's I can make it a better store -- not so's I can get rich.

By the way, this was another heavily promoted store -- with huge loyalty from the comic creators -- but it wasn't enough. Tons of publicity and renown and awards and such. I'll say it again and again: no amount of publicity and promotion will make up for basic business weaknesses. To me, it can't be a coincidence that so many high profile stores fold up. (Then again, maybe those are the ones we hear about; less prominent stores fold without notice...)

My guess is such stores are top heavy with employees, (the better to host events), and laden with promotion expenses.

I guess what I'm trying to say about promotion is -- fine, if you can do it.

But you have to be aware that every hour, every foot of space, every dollar you spend, every employee you assign to the schedule, every extra hour you stay open, every "guerilla" marketing campaign, is a focus AWAY from the basics -- inventory, especially.

If you are sitting in your store and business is slow, you might think --"ah, hah! I need to have an ad campaign, or I need to have a comic creator come by!"

Or you could look around your store and thing: "Maybe I need to change what I'm carrying. Maybe I need to change my pricing policies, or my hours..."

Or any other number of things...

I'm guessing here, from other people's comments and from visiting his website, that Atomic Comics was designed to sell mainstream comics and paraphernalia -- which have been hit pretty hard in the last few years.

I've got another post following this, which is a response to another "expert" that comic retailers should be doubling down on what they do "best", which is comics.

You can add this news from Phoenix as more evidence for my side of the argument which is -- diversify, diversify, diversify. (Or inventory, inventory, inventory, if you will.)

Business fads.

"Can Our Infrastructure Support All this Brewing?" Bulletin, 8/21/11.

Blink.

Of course not. It's a fad.

**********

"Small Bookstores Add a New Chapter."

I don't argue with the thrust of the article, I've been saying something similar; that small bookstores are positioned to survive better than the megabookstores. They also mention that many of their best customers aren't coming in for the "best-sellers" which is something I've been very aware of. Most of my customers are looking for quality books, books that have a track record. And one of the examples of a new bookstore, was that of an owner working 7 days a week with family, and not doing as well as he thought he would. Well, exactly.

Still, the stat they use to talk about an "increase" in bookstores is exactly the same number I remember reading about 5 years ago: 100 bookstores.

In the year that Central Oregon got an influx of 4 new bookstores,(in the late OO's...) about 100 bookstores opened in the country. Bend, in other words, garnered 4% of the new bookstores in the country that year, with a minuscule percent of the population.

Sadly, with Camalli closing up, two of those bookstores are gone. (I thought Tina had a very nice store, and I'm sorry to see her go.)

I'll just keep saying it: opening new stores (whether in downtown Bend or elsewhere) does not represent market strength, it represents HOPE.

**********

"Incredible Inevitable Shrinking Album Art."

I probably should start saving up these examples of Unintended Consequences from the digital revolution.

Any one of these small diminishments to the quality of our life are hardly noticeable. It's only when it all done and you realize the sheer extent of it, that it becomes a problem.

People either won't notice or won't care about each small drop away -- but will get a nagging sense of something being not quite right.

All in pursuit of the cheap and easy.

What a surprise.

**********

I've been saying from the beginning of e-readers that I thought a significant percentage of adopters would drift back, consciously or unconsciously, to the actual books again.

Here's an example I found on Slate, yesterday. He's talking about The New York Times but my point remains.

"Print versus Online." Jack Shafer

"...less than a year after my Times cancellation, I was paying for home delivery of the newspaper again."

"What I really found myself missing was the news. Even though I spent ample time clicking through the Times website and the Reader, I quickly determined that I wasn't recalling as much of the newspaper as I should be. Going electronic had punished my powers of retention. I also noticed that I was unintentionally ignoring a slew of worthy stories."

In my opinion, there are going to be both enough substantive and minor differences in the reading experience that will bring people back.

It may be the layout of the paper, as in the above example.

Or it may be just the feel of paper, the heft of a book on your chest as you lay on the couch reading at night.

I think it's a little early to give up on books.

The internet is a mind-sucking black hole.

And the site Flavorwire has tipped me beyond the event horizon.

It could just have easily been YouTube, or an other incredibly dense pop culture site, but I've managed to avoid them up till now.

I've purposely limited my bookmarks to a couple dozen sites, and tried to stick with them. I mean, the Huffington Post is bad enough. Because I have the kind of mentality that wants to know EVERY pop culture reference. Which is not only impossible, but pretty fucking useless.

I've just spent an hour at Flavorwire listening to great overlooked rock songs -- which are all great, all make me want to listen to more.

This, after spending half an hour with Linda this morning watching dolphins swim with dogs, and kittens in bowls, and bike riding chimps. Arrgggghhh!

I think what has doomed me is sound. Believe it or not, I purposely had no sound on any of my computers until I got a laptop. So it's the laptop's fault.

Just turn it off, you say?

Yeah, right.

Double your fun.

Downtown finally did it. Two events on one day.

Hey, what's the problem? Why not three events, while you are at it? You know, if one event is good, two events must be better, and three events even better, right?

So during the day we'll have geezers in spandex whizzing around and around our streets like hamsters. Kind of nerve-racking if you are trying to mosey around downtown.

In the other event, we have geezers moseying around downtown, drinking wine and eating cheese. Looking at art, not whizzing geezer hamsters.

I foresee a catastrophe.

Heh.

This is what happens when you don't deal with the problem.

Conan's in town and it's getting terrible reviews and I don't care.

Gonna see it.

**********

Common Table -- errr, did you really think it was going to work?

**********

O.K. I'm worried that they'll move the Bend Farmers Market onto the downtown streets.

There -- I said it.

**********

We have 6 Thai restaurants in Bend? That seems high.

**********

The picture of my 1971 Bend High class. Wow. Maybe in comparison I'm don't look all the much older than my average classmate.

Anyway, I was at a bookstore on the coast and there was an old guy making "old guy" jokes, and I decided then and there that I wouldn't ever, ever make "old guy" jokes. Instead of self-depreciating, they sound pathetic and demeaning.

In fact, I think I won't talk about "old" at all.

**********

Thing about four day vacations: you not only fall behind by four days, you immediately plunge into work, and then finally get around to all those things that you would've normally done on your days off more than a week later. Plus you're tired for a couple of days and kind of useless.

Not that I'm going to quit taking small vacations.

***********

The economy.

This is what happens when you don't deal with the problems.

Dweebs.

**********

Didgeridoo attack!

If they outlaw didgeridoos then only outlaws would have didgeridoos.

**********

"Preparing for a Comeback." Re/Max "expand offices, add brokers."

Oh, real estate agents. You are always so optimistic.

Personally, I think we've been bumping along a bottom. But I'm expecting things to get worse before they get better.

"I know why you skipped town..."

"I know why you skipped town last weekend," says Matt.

"Oh?"

"Yeah, your high school reunion, right?"

"How on earth did you know that?"

"They were meeting at the other place I work."

"But how did you know that group was my group?"

"Because on Saturday, two women came in asking for you and said they had dated you in high school."

"Two women dated me? That's like my whole high school dating scene! Heh, heh. Not really....well close....So were they a wild and crazy crowd?"

"Well, normally when I leave work, it's pretty quiet, but they seemed to just be ramping up.'

"Yep, that's them. Bend High School class of 1971; a wild and crazy bunch."


My best friend from high school, Wes, and his wife, Ev, came over Friday night before we left. I'm curious what happened to all my classmates, but not enough to go to a reunion.

What amazes me is that none of them seemed aware at the time of my wraithlike existence as a senior. I was suffering severe depression and avoiding most human contact. But in the immortal words of Buffy, the Vampire Slayer: "In high school, everyone is too worried about themselves to notice what's happening to everyone else."

Anyway, one of the ways that I got over my depression was to put the past into the past and stop thinking about it, and stop raising associations with those down times. It pretty much worked; so I see no good reason to go against that now.

I've gotten over all the anger and resentment I felt at the time. But I haven't quite got over the awkwardness of the whole scene, you know?

Did you behave yourself while I was gone?

I need to read about four days worth of newspapers to see if Bend operated correctly without me here to tell you what to do...

Doesn't seem likely.


**********

O.K. Right off the bat, there is a business article in the Sunday paper that is one of those cases where the Bulletin takes a smidgen of evidence and tries to create a whole "trend."

To me, the information in the article doesn't quite support the slant of the article.

"Working to Live." So Bend saw an increase of (9) -- yes, (9) or 0.38 "professional, scientific and technical' self-employed businesses in the last 3 years. But since that might be nine more lawyers, under the definition, I don't know that I'm impressed.

The article also lacks a certain perspective and comparison that might tell me something. For instance, is the percentage of this category higher or lower than other towns? Like Medford, or Eugene, or Salem?

If so, maybe I would be willing to believe that we have a huge cadre of self-employed techies --

Meanwhile, "health care" and "other services" had much higher rates of increase...

**********

I bought a physical copy of the U.S.A. Today on the trip, and it had shrunk. Came back to read that the Bulletin is going to shrink their paper, too. Somehow it feels like Paper, Jr. Sized.

**********

I hate it when an author I have liked turns out to be a rightwing lunatic. Dan Simmons has joined Micheal Crichton and Robert Heinlein in writing totally awful later books. At least Tom Clancy never hid that he was a simple-minded, knee jerk conservative.

**********

Oh, sure. NOW the Brasada Ranch wants my business.

Sorry, you already acted like elitist twerps. Apparently, there weren't enough snobs to sustain you.

**********

Wow. The Bioletics article has all the ingredients of the feel good, but questionable business. Fake science, promotional craziness, and phony owners. Kind of all the local trends ramped up to 11.

They're here for the "lifestyle."

**********

Along the same line, we are seeing lots of articles about "green" and "sustainability" and meanwhile the front page of the Tuesday Bulletin is all about a "renewable energy contractor" who took customers for a ride.

I think because "green" seems like a new magic word. Wave a wand, and everything will be better, cheaper and good for the environment. It's going to attract snakeoil salesmen who will use the magic words to take your money.

I still don't think a lot of these new energy technologies have shaken out yet; there is too much chance of unforeseen consequences. I'm not against green, but just because it says it's green doesn't mean it is.

I may be reading too much into it -- but like the Bioletics company above, there seems to be a whole lot of magical thinking in these new technologies.

"Scientific Progress" has always been a great come-on for scamsters.

**********

I love the discussion about the riots in London. Why weren't the bookstores looted?

A few of the columnists started out by saying that maybe the rioters had respected the books.

Then everyone else weighed in with the obvious: the rioters couldn't CARE LESS about books. They couldn't even be bothered to loot the damn things.

Crescent City wanderings.

Linda and I drove down to Crescent City for the weekend. Got to the Comfort Inn, and they had put us on the first floor even though we had requested the second floor, so the clerk upgraded us to a "suite."

"I think this is the Honeymoon suite..." Got a kitchen and a jet bathtub and a big kingsize bed and lots of room and the best view. Heh.

I think they gave it to us because we booked for three nights.

The kingsize bed is actually a bit of a problem. I toss and turn alot and Linda's knees jerk like a metronome. But we decided to go with it, and we did all right last night.

Linda grew up in Crescent City, so she gets the urge to come down. I like the place, too. It's got some great beaches. But Linda almost always says once we're here: "I'm disappointed in how shabby it all is. I don't remember it being this shabby..."

I took the first three books of Peter and the Starcatchers for vacation, and blew threw most of the first book last night.

This is supposed to be a "writing" vacation, in that we are going to spend a fair amount of time in our room. Linda wants to get back into her story, and I want to continue my momentum.

Don't know how much writing we'll actually do. It's gotten to be a tradition to see a movie at Crescent City each visit, so we'll be seeing Planet of the Apes. I always spend hours walking the beach, for exercise and to think. Here's where I could see having an Ipad along.

But I'll throw my laptop into my backpack and that'll work. Of course, I suppose I could take an actual paper notebook. Hah, paper.

(Weird little aside: As I write this, the laptop is nestled on -- well, you know, my lap. I feel the heat on my family jewels. And I imagine invisible rays shooting through them.... Paranoia.)

Typical coastal overcast and wind and -- cold? Yeah, about 65 at best. Not exactly the Caribbean.



The Rise of the Planet of the Apes was a perfect Saturday matinee. Lots of fun, and I was rooting for the apes all the way.

They are going to have to invent a new category of acting and call it the "Serkis Award."


Linda went into this sleeping together in a kingsize with total optimism. She woke up this morning saying that she tried to hard to keep her leg from kicking that she sprained her neck! A failed experiment, but better than buying a kingsize to find out.


Went for a walk around sunset last night on the beach. Neat thing about the beach is that you don't worry about it getting dark, you can still find your way. Breaking waves, bigger than I've seen before, and just watched them mesmerized for a long while. Want to do more of that kind of beach walking wave watching today...


Finished Peter and the Starcatchers last night, and I have to say that I only found it moderately amusing. Not enough to read the other two books. Now if anyone asks, I'll have to tell them the truth rather than just saying, "I've heard that it's really good."

Thing is, Dave Barry can make me belly laugh in his short columns, but there wasn't one major laugh in the entire book. How can that be?

(Ended up starting the second book afterall. It's a quick read.)


Linda is in love with her Ipad. She's constantly playing with it. She told me she bought a .99 cent books.

"TRAITOR!" Hey, if the bookstore owner is buying e-books, we're doomed.


Well, it turned out to be a writing vacation for Linda, I didn't write a thing. I was along for the ride.

I went off for walks on the beach, instead. I think walking a wide sandy beach at sunset is one of my new favorite things. Walking back to the car, I was facing the sunset all the way, and got there just as it was dark. (I dressed warmly, by golly: I saw a range of from swimsuits (ah, foolish youth) to full parka's....)

We drove to Brookings yesterday, and visited the little bookstore we always visit: Drove up and "Uh, Oh. It looks closed..."

We wandered in and it was being transformed into a computer store. Turns out to be the woman's son. She died, unexpectedly, at 79.

The name of the store, (I think), was Words and Pictures, with new books in front and an art gallery in back. She was an interesting lady, one of the few "thoughtful" owners I've encountered on my trips. (I'm trying to imagine still selling books 21 years from now...but that's the way to go...)

Thing is, according to the son, it was a labor of love. Some of the artwork in the gallery was hers, and she spent "hours and hours" selecting and ordering the books. She had the bookstore she wanted, which is the only kind of bookstore to have, these days.

He told me how well they had done with a liquidation; with the help of the local newspaper, and ads, they had sold the inventory for more than anyone had actually offered for the store. I wandered around the mostly empty stacks, and still found about 30 books I wanted to buy at 80% off.

It's become a tradition to eat at the Dairy Queen in Brookings, which for some reason just has the best junk food we find anywhere. Brookings is definitely more upscale than Crescent City.

I'm going to take one more beachwalk and one more jetbath before leaving, and then we'll mosey back to Bend. I'm much more of a lolly gagger than Linda; she tends to bustle about, while I laze about and say, "Hey, we don't have to leave till 11:00, what's the hurry?"

Shuffling the deck.

I woke up last night with the analogy of shuffling the deck.

My store is like a 52 card deck, of which I only show 5 cards at a time. Of course, I want to show the best 5 cards, so the analogy isn't exact; but I have a huge range of material, and the possible combination of product I can show face out is nearly endless.

I'm constantly surprised by the quality of backstock I have. I can pull a book out at random, and it has a Wow cover; a great title; a neat idea. And it's lost at the bottom of the deck.

There can be a serendipity in the combination, as well. Unseen connections.

The store is constantly morphing, of course. A very slow shuffle. I need to make room so I have to move stuff, or a hole develops, and I fill it with previously unseen product, and so on.

So I just need to keep doing that, and maybe try a little harder to flip product around in creative ways.

I'll probably want to leave about half the books that are currently face out, because they are proven sellers. But I think I'll try to change the other half every week, probably on a Thursday.
It probably won't have a huge effect -- to tourists, it's all new. The regulars probably rarely glance at areas of the store they aren't used to. But it's worth a try.

Be prepared to be unprepared.

Sometimes I can forget to be grateful and appreciative that I have a fully functioning business.

There were so many years where I kept the whole enterprise alive by sheer willpower, or so it felt. I mean, by all rights I should have crumbled, but I refused to and no one took the trouble to come lock my doors.

So when I enter in a new invoice of product into my computer and I see the varied and interesting array of material, I'm impressed. I'm satisfied that I can leave the store for a day or two and it will continue to generate money. I'm proud of what I've accomplished.

I was watching a thing on C-span the other day where the author was talking about how he describes Google as an adolescent, but actually it's 12 years old which is a long time in 'tech' years.

"General Motors has been around for 75 years, which is an impressive run, and it almost went out of business last year..."

And then I compare it to Pegasus Books, which has existed for 31 years, and I'm kind of boggled.

I'm also thankful that I'm earning a "living wage" and that I started earning a living wage about the time I started this "minimum wage job" blog; (It seems silly to change the title now, especially since 80% of my career it was true.) And I'm somewhat puzzled that this has happened while the economic world around me seems to be at an all time worst -- the Great Recession has kept me from earning as much as I could, but it's still better than it was.

I think, as I mentioned above, it's because I have all the pieces in place, a fully functioning store.

It doesn't seem like that should be unusual, but I know it is -- especially when I think back on all the stores that were downtown when I started and how very few of them are left; or how few of the ones that followed are left. It sometimes seems to me that NO stores last very long.

I have constantly morphed the store over the years -- it turns out to be one of my strengths. I'm constantly developing new product lines that may or may not ever pan out; and I'm constantly keeping old product lines on life-support in hopes they'll have a resurgence.

New books are becoming more important to my store at a time when the challenges in the industry seem to be at an all time high.

But, I've always thought -- it's easier to enter an industry at the low point, or the most challenging point -- with one's eyes open to all the pitfalls. I can't tell you the number of times I've gotten into a product line when no one else was -- spent lots of time developing it, only to have the bottom fall out because the mass market suddenly takes over.

For instance, I'm holding my own on boardgames, but it's becoming obvious that the customers no longer consider my store an oasis of material they can't find anywhere else -- they are now "pricing" the games (I sell at suggested retail) and walking away instead of being happy that I carry the material at all. At least this time, I've been aware of that danger since the beginning and have fully taken it into account.

It turns out, though, that by carrying six or seven different kinds of material: new and used books, games (rpg's; card and board), toys, comics and graphic novels; cards (sports and entertainment) and ancillary material -- I can constantly adjust the mix.

Anyway, I think I'm prepared to be prepared for anything that might or might not happen. Or maybe I should say, I'm prepared to be Unprepared for what might or might not happen.

What is small business success?

When I look at other small retail, I don't consider a concept proved for at least five years. That is, a store needs to survive five years and still be making money for me to believe they're viable.

But beyond that, I also include a seven year measure for emotional success. If after seven years a store not only makes money, but is emotionally, physically, and mentally satisfying, then I believe they're viable.

Maybe seven years is an unnecessarily high standard. I could conceive of a business which is designed to be in business for only five or seven years, which might consider itself a success.

Nevertheless, I think if a store can make it through the seven year period, it has proved out.

Why the seven year mark?

Because ironically, the very things that might help you make it to the five years mark as a financial success can work against you as a emotional success. To succeed in a small business these days you need to so over work, over invest, and over commit, that success can breed failure.

My guess is that most successful businesses that make it past the seven year mark have found a compromise with financial versus the personal.

To make it through the first five years, I believe a small business has to avoid some common misconceptions.

1.) Being cheaper sells more.

2.) Paid advertising works.

What does work in the first five years?

1.) Working most of the hours yourself.

2.) Self-promoting. Doing all the promotional things you can that don't cost money.

3.) Service, service, service. Don't discount your product, add service to the product. You can't beat the internet or the mass market on price anyway, so you have to provide added value.


So, not doing the first two things and doing the second three things helps make you financially viable.

However, doing the second three things can burn you out over a five to seven year period. I've seen this almost as often as I've seen businesses go out because they weren't making money.

So in order to avoid that burnout, you have to moderate and tailor the services you provide. You have to give up some of the financial success to hire employees, you have to ease off on the constant self--promotion and hope that the business has gained enough credibility to be viable without the constant push.

A business has to either be financially successful or emotionally satisfying -- but not only aren't those the same two things, they can be actively contrary.

I think it's hard for small business owners to recognize the dangers of burnout. Our culture is so go-go all the time, that it seems sinful to ease off. But I think that the more rah rah you are, the more the danger of burnout, which then makes you less effective as a business.

The first five years of business can be exciting and satisfying, and most owners are willing to put in the time, energy, space and money to try to succeed. But it's hard to maintain that level of energy forever. It is possible to take the financial success that results, and find a level that is self-sustainable.

If you can do those two things, then you have succeeded.

"I'd rather have something to sell."

I was talking to some friends last night about how, despite having been in business for so long, things were as uncertain as ever. There apparently never does come a time when you can rest on your laurels.

It's funny how things work. Who would have thought that New Books would be the product that is making up for some of the lost revenue in other categories -- categories that aren't challenged by digital?

It's not really known, but physical book sales aren't really down all that much nationwide. Certainly not the holocaust that seems to be everyone's impression. But there is an obvious slow encroachment.

To my mind, the original Borders and Barnes and Noble cut into any fat that independent bookstores had (probably not much fat to be cut, but..you know: "You've got mail!") Then Amazon came along and cut into the muscle. And now e-books are cutting into the bone.

The article in today's Bulletin about bookstores had the usual mantra of things that are going to save bookstores that boiled down to two things: promotional events and discounts.

Yet, somehow, those things don't appear to be working all that well. I'm convinced as always that you need inventory, inventory, inventory. And anything that costs extra labor (such as events) or extra space (ditto) or giving away margins (discounts and clubs) should be avoided as much as possible. The accent here is on "extra" but I'll be darned if I can see how you can provide all these things without either spending extra on space and time and margins -- or working those extras yourself -- which is a recipe for burnout.

The head of the Bend Downtowners was in the other day, and he mentioned a rule of thumb that said, "You'll lose 20% of your customers every year, that's why I keep encouraging you to do more advertising..."

"I pay the high rent in downtown Bend to pay for a location where I get walk by traffic," I said. "That's my advertising."

(What I could have said, is : Well, my store is still profitable while a full third of the downtown stores have turned over in the last two and a half years...)

From my perspective -- I have a certain amount of money to spend. I always know of dozens of products that have recently sold, that have sold over and over again, and that I'm pretty sure I can sell again.

So I can order that product, or divert that money and time and space and effort into advertising and promotions.

If there ever comes a time when I've run out of things to sell, and I have extra money and time and space, then maybe I'll advertise.

Until then, I'd rather have something to sell.

Top 100 S.F. and Fantasy Books.

NPR has produced a list of the top 100 S.F. and Fantasy Books.

Turns out, I actively carry 80 of them, in full or part. (Some come in used often enough, that I don't get them new.)

I have read 77 of them, in full or part, and I've read 37 out of the first 40.

About 20 of these titles I don't carry because I just don't believe they are worthy, though this list may help me change my mind. I'll probably add about 15 of them to the rolls.

About 10 of the ones I don't carry, I just never thought of as S.F. per se.

And about 5 I just haven't read and didn't know were so highly thought of.

I'm going to put a (X) in front of every book I've read.

I'm going to put a * in front of every book I try to carry. (I may not always have a copy in stock, but the intent is there.)

I'm going to put a (?) with every book I think is dubious listed as S.F.

I'm going to put a (WTF) with every book I don't think is good enough.

If I don't say anything about a book, it means I totally agree with it's listing.

*(X) 1. The Lord Of The Rings Trilogy, by J.R.R. Tolkien (Countless times....)

*(X) 2. The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy, by Douglas Adams (1st book; not my cup of tea.)

*(X) 3. Ender's Game, by Orson Scott Card (1st book great, descends in quality...)

*(X) 4. The Dune Chronicles, by Frank Herbert (1st book great, descends in quality...)

*(X) 5. A Song Of Ice And Fire Series, by George R. R. Martin

*(X) 6. 1984, by George Orwell

*(X) 7. Fahrenheit 451, by Ray Bradbury

*(X) 8. The Foundation Trilogy, by Isaac Asimov

*(X) 9. Brave New World, by Aldous Huxley

*(X) 10. American Gods, by Neil Gaiman

*(X) 11. The Princess Bride, by William Goldman

*12. The Wheel Of Time Series, by Robert Jordan. (Haven't read because seems too basic. Carry in the store, however.)

*(X) 13. Animal Farm, by George Orwell

*(X) 14. Neuromancer, by William Gibson

*(X) 15. Watchmen, by Alan Moore (First comic on the list.)

*(X) 16. I, Robot, by Isaac Asimov

*(X) 17. Stranger In A Strange Land, by Robert Heinlein

*(X) 18. The Kingkiller Chronicles, by Patrick Rothfuss (This is my new favorite series...)

*(X) 19. Slaughterhouse-Five, by Kurt Vonnegut (?)

*(X) 20. Frankenstein, by Mary Shelley

*21. Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep?, by Philip K. Dick (Never got around to reading because of Bladerunner.)

22. The Handmaid's Tale, by Margaret Atwood (?)

*(X) 23. The Dark Tower Series, by Stephen King

*(X) 24. 2001: A Space Odyssey, by Arthur C. Clarke

*(X) 25. The Stand, by Stephen King

*(X) 26. Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson

*(X) 27. The Martian Chronicles, by Ray Bradbury

*(X) 28. Cat's Cradle, by Kurt Vonnegut (?)

*(X) 29. The Sandman Series, by Neil Gaiman (2nd comic series listed. Much as I love Gaiman's prose, I think THIS is his magnum opus.)

*30. A Clockwork Orange, by Anthony Burgess (No excuses -- again, the movie -- plus it's hard to get through the made-up language.)

*(X) 31. Starship Troopers, by Robert Heinlein

*(X) 32. Watership Down, by Richard Adams

(X) 33. Dragonflight, by Anne McCaffrey (Don't carry, but probably will now.)

*(X) 34. The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, by Robert Heinlein

*(X) 35. A Canticle For Leibowitz, by Walter M. Miller

*(X) 36. The Time Machine, by H.G. Wells

*(X) 37. 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea, by Jules Verne

*(X) 38. Flowers For Algernon, by Daniel Keys

*(X) 39. The War Of The Worlds, by H.G. Wells

*(X) 40. The Chronicles Of Amber, by Roger Zelazny (Personally, I like Lord of Light)

(X) 41. The Belgariad, by David Eddings (An average fantasy, as far as I'm concerned. But maybe I'll start carrying it.)

*42. The Mists Of Avalon, by Marion Zimmer Bradley (WTF) (Sorry, just never appealed to me. Read so slowly, I gave up. I gave this an in stock * because it's always floating around used.)

*43. The Mistborn Series, by Brandon Sanderson (I don't know, I might try reading this.)

*(X) 44. Ringworld, by Larry Niven

*(X) 45. The Left Hand Of Darkness, by Ursula K. LeGuin

*46. The Silmarillion, by J.R.R. Tolkien (Believe it or not, I couldn't finish. Came out too long after my mania for Tolkien.)

*(X) 47. The Once And Future King, by T.H. White (Wonderful book.)

*(X) 48. Neverwhere, by Neil Gaiman

*(X) 49. Childhood's End, by Arthur C. Clarke

*(X) 50. Contact, by Carl Sagan (I've listed that I carry it, because I always have a used copy...)

*(X) 51. The Hyperion Cantos, by Dan Simmons

* 52. Stardust, by Neil Gaiman (Starting to see a pattern; if I've seen the movie, I don't read the book.)

*(X) 53. Cryptonomicon, by Neal Stephenson (Also the Baroque Trilogy -- great stuff.)

*54. World War Z, by Max Brooks (Everyone keeps telling me to read this.)

*(X) 55. The Last Unicorn, by Peter S. Beagle

*(X) 56. The Forever War, by Joe Haldeman

57. Small Gods, by Terry Pratchett (Like Hitchhikers, I just don't enjoy the "cute" S.F.)

*(X) 58. The Chronicles Of Thomas Covenant, The Unbeliever, by Stephen R. Donaldson (WTF) (I really HATED this series -- threw the 3rd book across the room. The writer just came out early in the fantasy sweepstakes and got lucky -- only one series is worst, which I'll mention when we get there. * because it's always around used.)

*(X) 59. The Vorkosigan Saga, by Lois McMaster Bujold (Best S.F. series out there that only those who have read it know about. HIGHLY recommended.)

60. Going Postal, by Terry Pratchett

*(X) 61. The Mote In God's Eye, by Larry Niven & Jerry Pournelle

62. The Sword Of Truth, by Terry Goodkind (WTF) (I tried reading this, but it was such hackwork, I gave up. Really, people? Read a good fantasy instead.)

*(X) 63. The Road, by Cormac McCarthy (?)

*(X) 64. Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell, by Susanna Clark. (I wanted to like this book more than I did. I appreciated it more than liked it.)

*(X) 65. I Am Legend, by Richard Matheson

(X) 66. The Riftwar Saga, by Raymond E. Feist (To me, another average fantasy series. However, like Eddings and Hobb, it was O.K. so I may start carrying it.)

(X) 67. The Shannara Trilogy, by Terry Brooks (WTF) (The only series I loathed more than Donaldson's. Again, got lucky in the timing. Shameless and poorly written. Arrgggh.)

*(X) 68. The Conan The Barbarian Series, by R.E. Howard

(X) 69. The Farseer Trilogy, by Robin Hobb (Again, O.K. fantasy -- may carry it.)

*70. The Time Traveler's Wife, by Audrey Niffenegger (?) (I carry this, but in regular fiction.)

*71. The Way Of Kings, by Brandon Sanderson (Can't judge, because I haven't read him.)

*(X) 72. A Journey To The Center Of The Earth, by Jules Verne

*73. The Legend Of Drizzt Series, by R.A. Salvatore (I didn't want to read this, because it's a franchise, but so many people have recommended it, that I may try someday.)

*(X) 74. Old Man's War, by John Scalzi (?) (Just seems like an O.K. writer to me, but people love him.)

*(X) 75. The Diamond Age, by Neil Stephenson

*(X) 76. Rendezvous With Rama, by Arthur C. Clarke

*77. The Kushiel's Legacy Series, by Jacqueline Carey (?) (Honestly, I don't know anything about this one. Which is unusual, as you can tell. Turns out I'm carrying it though.)

*(X) 78. The Dispossessed, by Ursula K. LeGuin

*(X) 79. Something Wicked This Way Comes, by Ray Bradbury

80. Wicked, by Gregory Maguire (?)

*(X) 81. The Malazan Book Of The Fallen Series, by Steven Erikson (Interesting attempt to be different, but really not that well written -- lots of words and slow rollout.)

82. The Eyre Affair, by Jasper Fforde (?) Wow. I haven't even HEARD of this book!

*(X) 83. The Culture Series, by Iain M. Banks (Best S.F. going...)

(X) 84. The Crystal Cave, by Mary Stewart (Read it years ago, never thought to carry.)

*(X) 85. Anathem, by Neal Stephenson

*86. The Codex Alera Series, by Jim Butcher (Author is REALLY popular -- because of the Dresden books which they must consider horror.)

(X) 87. The Book Of The New Sun, by Gene Wolfe (Really should carry this, but seems like not all the books are in print. I'll try again.

88. The Thrawn Trilogy, by Timothy Zahn (As I mentioned about, I don't tend to read "for hire" franchise fiction. In this case, Star Wars.)

*89. The Outlander Series, by Diana Gabaldan (Linda loved this, and I've always meant to read it.)

*(X) 90. The Elric Saga, by Michael Moorcock

*(X) 91. The Illustrated Man, by Ray Bradbury

92. Sunshine, by Robin McKinley (?) ( Another book I don't know anything about. I wonder if these books just have a strong fan lobby. (See Butcher, above.) I didn't like her fantasy books...)

*(X) 93. A Fire Upon The Deep, by Vernor Vinge

*(X) 94. The Caves Of Steel, by Isaac Asimov

*(X) 95. The Mars Trilogy, by Kim Stanley Robinson

(X) 96. Lucifer's Hammer, by Larry Niven & Jerry Pournelle (Should and will carry.)

(X) 97. Doomsday Book, by Connie Willis (Another book I appreciated more than liked. Should and will carry.)

*(X) 98. Perdido Street Station, by China Mieville (State of the art S.F. writing.)

*(X) 99. The Xanth Series, by Piers Anthony (First three books were moderately amusing.)

100. The Space Trilogy, by C.S. Lewis (Sorry. As much as I loved Narnia and half a dozen other Lewis books, I just couldn't read this turgid thing.)

There is a huge bias toward newer and more popular titles -- which isn't the same thing as TOP in my opinion.

To this list, I would add Armor, by John Steakley; Titan, John Varley; Lord of Light and The Immortal, by Roger Zelazny; Tunnel in the Sky, Robert Heinlein; The Iron Dragon's Daughter, Michael Swanwick; Lensmen, E.E. Doc Smith; Gateway, Frederik Pohl; Waystation, Clifford Simak. Lord Valentine's Castle, Robert Silverberg; Uplift Trilogy, David Brin; The Mars books, Edgar Rice Burroughs; Yarrow, Charles DeLint; Deathworld, (and Stainless Steel Rat) Harry Harrison; Norstrillia, Cordwainer Smith....and many others of the older kind.

No matter what anyone else says.

I had a customer ask me how the store was doing. I waggled my eyebrows and laughed.

"Well, you know with the encouragement of the stock market, well, you know...."

Actually though, I don't expect the stock market plunge to have an immediate effect on sales. It doesn't work that way. It will take a sustained drop before people start changing behavior.

Besides, it's summer. If I'm going to have good sales, it is in the summer.

I'm almost positive we'll beat last year in August; just as we beat last July by about 10%.

That sounds good, right? But when I look at last year with cold, calculating eyes -- instead of casually averting my eyes like I have for most of the year (because an actual upturn gives me the courage) I can see how utterly dismal last summer was.

Here's how the sales have gone since the great recession started. One full down year after Lehman Brother's collapse, then as we cycled a year back over that awful September, I had seven up months, then last April, another decline of 14 months, until this summer when we've been handily beating last year. I think this is likely to continue into the fall.

What we are doing, here, is bouncing off the bottoms of previous cycles. (Dead Cat Bounces.) For instance, when we had that expected unexpected drop in April and May, I had to start cutting costs which then impacted on June, July, and Aug. and now I'm cycling a year after that and easily beating the dismal summer.

If it was the stock market, it would be called a "bear market rally."

As I've mentioned before, the only statistic that really matters is my break-even point. If I take my fixed expenses (including what I pay myself) and divide that amount by my average profit margin, I have to make (X) amount of money to break even.

I prepared for the Great Recession by pushing my sales as high as I could, increasing my margins as best I could, and keeping my fixed expenses as low as I could. When the downturn started, I could give away a little more than half of my sales and still be above the break-even point.

It's never gotten close to that bad, fortunately.

I doubt there are very many small businesses that can sustain a 50% drop, few that can handle a 40% drop, most probably can't handle a 30% drop without help, a 20% would be painful for most, and a 10% might be enough to actually destroy an unprepared (overly indebted or high fixed expenses or low margins or barely good enough sales.)

All these shocks do is remind me to keep watching my P & Q's and not expect any real change to the economy for years to come.

No matter what anyone else says.

Downtown Comings and Goings. 8/11/11.

I see there is a new sandwich shop, Plankers. It's in the space the Crepe Place was in.

A new women's clothing shop, Faveur, has opened next to the Bend Burger Company. (The Shear Illusions space.)



NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Ownership.

This might be somewhat contradictory. I like owning things -- but I don't like collecting things.

I guess, by collecting, I'm thinking of idea of buying something because you think it might be "worth" something beyond the intrinsic value of the item. That, I believe, is a giant con game. 90% of 'collectibles' are crap, and the 10% that isn't crap is hard to find and hard to sell.

On the other hand, actually owning an item makes it yours.

There is an article in the Bulletin today: "We're paying less for music, but we're getting less, too," that asserts that making art free devalues the experience of art.

Good luck with that argument.

Anyway, I'm about to make a big book order, which flies in the face of current trends. Why?

Because I believe there are still people who want to "own" a book; and "owning" a digital version just isn't the same thing. In fact, I have to wonder if you "own" a digital version at all, or are just borrowing it.

So, which is more important? The experience of reading a book or owning a book? Well, obviously, I come down on the side of reading more than owning. Much like I think owning a "collectible" because it looks nice is more important than thinking it should be squirreled away in it's original packaging and untouched.

Still -- I like "owning" at least some of the books I read. I'll do the 90% rule again -- I probably can let go of 90% of the books I read, and keep the 10%.

So by that reasoning, there are going to be shops who can survive who sell the 10% of books, movies, and CD's that people want to own.

I've mentioned before -- because of my location in a busy downtown that has tourist business, I've repositioned my store to be more of a "gift" shop; with items that people don't see everywhere else, as intriguing as I can make them, and hopefully something they want to take home with them.

To own.

If I'm right about this -- there will be room for 10 or 20% as many venues as there were before the digital revolution started. This will probably take a few years to diminish into this lower level.

And if I'm right about this, the bigger mass market type stores won't survive at all selling music, books, and movies -- anything that can be done "free" on the internet. Ironically, it will be the little guys who combine a savvy selection of the physical, with a shopping experience, and can get people to pay the price for Ownership.

Feeling half smart.

I'm feeling half smart.

(Forgive the egocentricity of this entry. But it is in the forefront of my mind. I should feel fortunate that I have savings to worry about at all. I know the stock market is not a factor in many people's lives...)

I took one half of the available money out of the stock market in mid-July, but put it back in on Wednesday, the 3rd of August.

If I had waited just one more day! There was no reason to jump back in that day, I just had a moment to call my financial guy so I did.

I had avoided the first third of the downturn. I also put 35% into a 'safe' investment, which so far has proven to be pretty safe-- that is, it's dropped about 1% when the rest of the market has dropped 10 times that much.

So by my reckoning, I saved myself about half the available pain.

However, when I say available, I could've sold the other half in cash in mid-July as well -- but that seemed more complicated and more like panic selling.

So that makes me about one quarter smart.

Still -- I coulda been a contender. I could have crowed. Instead, I'm eating crow.

What now? I haven't a clue. And when I don't have a clue, I tend to just keep doing what I'm doing.


I think I have a tendency to not give myself enough 'lag' time. I think it's because I somehow believe the markets are more efficient than they actually are. I get the basic swing right, but the timing wrong.

I remember back to when I decided the comic bubble was about to pop. It was in March, (94?) and I was making my orders for May product. I cut back drastically on my orders for June, July, and August, believing I could sell any overflow from April, May during our 'busy' months.

What I didn't see coming was that the majority of the heavily ordered April, May product, didn't show up until Sept, Oct. and Nov. So even though I was right about the timing -- amazingly so -- I didn't realize there would be a six month lag, or delay.

I tend to be pretty good about my analysis, but I don't give it enough time to develop.

That's why, when this recession started, I told myself in advance not to expect any improvement in sales for at least 7 years, probably longer. 4 years into the recession, which I don't think ever went away for those of us on Main St., that estimate is looking a little low.

Slow news day, (unless you count the end of the world.)

A slow news day, if you ignore a crashing stock market or two.

The Bulletin had a rather bizarre editorial that criticized the state for granting money to OSPIRG which had the temerity to question rate increases by health insurance companies. Because the companies are "Oregon" companies....

Because Oregon companies would never raise the rates unnecessarily. Especially health insurance companies....

**********

Went to see Cowboys and Aliens.

I think because I had already downgraded this movie in my mind, I actually was surprised by how much I enjoyed it.

I think it's the first time I've seen Harrison Ford really play his age; instead of the awkward sort of, "he's old, but he's Han Solo, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, so he can still kick your butt" kind of role. Though there was a bit of that.

Then came home and watched season finale of Falling Skies, which gets more and more ludicrous

This is a resistance army that could only have been created by Hollywood. Your touchy feelly army of, "Oh, did I hurt your feelings because you betrayed us to the enemy? Come here, let me give you a hug...."

One thing consistent about aliens in these movies -- they have lousy security. Some cultures never invented the wheel; aliens never invented the sentry.

***********

"I think I sunburned the top of my head! That's never happened before."

"Well, you used to have hair on the top of your head. You don't get sunburned if you have hair....

"What?"

"You don't get sunburned if you have hair...."

"What? What are you saying?"

"Ummm....

"Are you saying I have no hair? Are you saying I'm BALD?"

"No, dear. You still have hair, just not as much."

"What?"

***********