Sundays That and This.

About the tourism article in the Bulletin this morning. I think most people don't realize that whether sales are up and down have to do with so many connected factors that it's nearly impossible to take one factor out and draw any firm conclusions.

My sales have more to do with the product lines I'm carrying, and their current popularity, than anything else. In fact, for every part of my career except the first few years and the last few years, the economy at large had very little to do with results.

That said -- We ARE a tourism economy, don't kid yourself.

**********

Instead of finishing the garden jobs I've started, I spent most of yesterday clearing away a whole new space for the garden. I spread a packet of wild flowers and we'll see what happen.

I have a sunburn on the top of my head, under the hair, which I don't remember ever happening before. At least I still have hair on the top of my head -- if there was one thing I always knew, it was that I'd be bald by now and I'm totally surprised I'm not.

Anyway, whenever I garden that intensively, I am itchy and sore and scratchy beyond belief. It took me hours to fall asleep last night -- I dreamed of roots, tangled and entwined.

Speaking of roots, we brought home a couple of curly willow cuttings from out son, Todd, in Portland and I just kind of put them in a tub of water. Weeks later, they've sprouted roots under water. So I'm going to plant them pretty soon, and hope they survive.

I didn't fertilize the plants this year-- I figured I'd do that in August in enough time to hopefully strengthen the roots -- so I better get going on that... I'm also going to make more of an effort to cover plants this winter -- either build up the dirt around them, or use refuse if that's handy.

**********

Last week, Linda and I went to go see Cowboys and Aliens (Aliens and Cowboys?); but I'd read the time wrong, and we were 10 minutes late. Since I'd just read a review that said the first 5 minutes of the movie were the best, we opted to see Horrible Bosses, instead.

It was O.K. Funny in parts. But I always feel like these kind of movies can be seen on a smaller screen without any loss in viewing. Seems like a waste of money. These gross-out movies seem to be becoming total formula. I'm already tired of them. Going to see Aliens/Cowboys this afternoon.

**********

I kept finding shelled peanuts in my garden and couldn't for the life of me figure it out. (Sometimes I'm not very smart -- please, no comments.) Finally, Linda pointed out the obvious -- someone is feeding the squirrels. I feel really bad about digging up the poor squirrels winter food....

**********

I've decided to go heavy on ordering new books for the rest of the year. I keep selling the easy books -- titles like Sometimes a Great Notion, or The Alchemist, or On The Road. Inexcusable not to have them in stock. I have dozens of titles I know have sold and probably will sell again. Maybe hundreds of titles.

Meanwhile, when people ask for titles like "The Help", I always say, "I don't really try to carry the bestsellers." They just look at me like I'm crazy. That's like saying, "I don't carry them because they sell too good..."

But new hardcovers are so expensive I think people SHOULD buy them at a discount whenever possible. It has to be a very special book for me to carry it new hardcover; like Dance with Dragons. Even then, I've only sold a few.

It's when they're affordable, at 15.00 or less, that I'm always surprised the customers don't buy the book new. If a book is worth reading, it's worth buying new; if a book isn't worth reading, it isn't worth buying used. They simply don't believe me when I say they're unlikely to find the book they are looking for in used, and even if they did, it would only save them a few bucks.

I mean, it's possible, but not likely for any particular book. And really, when was the last time you were reading a good book and you EVEN THOUGHT about what it cost you? I'm not talking a 10.00 or 20.00 difference in price, but somewhere between 3.00 to 7.50, usually. Seriously, just buy the damn book and save yourself the time and energy.

I know, because I've had this store for 31 years, and my wife has had a used bookstore for 7 years that goes through hundreds of books a day -- that there are many titles, well-known titles, that simply don't show up used all that often, and when they do, they sell right away. But no one believes me when I say this -- they remember the successes they had finding a used copy, but they don't remember the failures.

So much wasted effort. I have the book right here -- and it's only a few bucks more. I take solace in the fact that it's Instant Karma, they pay the price not me.

Anyway, about the bestsellers. I've started explaining myself by saying -- "I wait to until the bestsellers have some seasoning..." which is true. But really, it's about not carrying 25.00 and 30.00 hardcovers that become impossible to sell once they become tradepaperbacks.

Strangely, there is a category of books that I do have luck selling in hardcover format. Books that people want a permanent library of -- such as Harry Potter and Song of Ice and Fire. I suspect The Hunger Game trilogy will be the same. Probably true of Lord of the Rings and some others. (In fact, I'm going to order a hardcover Hobbit in my next order...) I can actually sell hardcovers of them, despite it seeming like everyone in the world has already bought them.

Ah, the life.

One of the guys working for me has been bringing in movie soundtracks to play at the store. I don't know what movies they are -- but I feel like I'm in a theater. Very anthem-ic. Gets lots of raised eyebrows.

**********

So the hijacker, D.B. Cooper might have pretty much used his own name -- and had a connection to Boeing -- and no one ever saw it before?

The F.B.I sure is on top of things....

**********

Linda thought she was renewing my New York Times Sunday paper subscription, and instead signed up for The New Yorker. I don't mind -- the cover illustrations and cartoons alone are probably worth it. I remember always looking at the magazine when my parents took it. (It appears to be maybe one third the size of the mag. I remember...)

I'll tell you....reading long magazine articles feels kind of strange nowadays, especially since most of the ones I'm interested in I read online anyway.

**********

I had one of those eye-opening realizations that make me wonder why I didn't realize it before.

Yes, I was up 10% in sales in July from the previous year, my first up month in 14 months. But ALL that increase (and more) was due to one category, which had an unusual reason for being up that probably won't be duplicated soon.

In other words, it was more or less a false sign. Take that unusual reason out of the equation, and I would have had the usual small drop.

Sigh.

Still, I'm still more profitable today than I've been in 90% of my career -- due just to the store maturation. It took a long time to get here -- years of investment in time and inventory. It's fully stocked in six major categories....

It was painful at the time, but it certainly has panned out.

**********

I was patting myself on the back for avoiding a 5% drop in the stock market.

If I had waited just one more day, I would have avoided another 5% drop.

Bah.

***********

I say we just ignore S & P's downgrade. Just pretend there is no such thing as S & P.

What did you say? Who's S & P?

See...it's easy.

**********

My gardening urge has faded with the heat.

I really don't like the heat.

Later: changed my mind. Spent an hour on the lawn with my cat. It isn't that hot, and I started to get the urge to weed.

Think I'll be doing that for the next couple days -- put my laptop on patio in case I think of anything to write.

Ah, the life.

**********

Suggested Retail Price.

Early on, someone told me you can tell the strength of a store by how close to Suggested Retail Price they charge.

Why do I try to charge S.R.P as often as I can? Is it to survive? Or is it to get richer?

No, the real answer is -- so I can have a fully stocked store. Not just the obvious stuff, but the next tier down, as well as the unusual and the unexpected. So that I don't constantly have to scramble to get enough material, or pay my bills, and so I can experiment on untested or new product, or bring in a whole new product line.

That's really the real reason. To have a store full of material. S.R.P is me trying to do a good job.

Try to explain that to a newbie to business. They've been told from the moment they first think about retail that "the cheaper you are, the more you'll sell."

First of all, that is often not even true. Product tends to have its own demand momentum. If it had high demand, you can sell it at a higher margin. If it has low demand, selling it at a cheaper margin won't usually push the noodle all that much.

But selling more doesn't even matter, if you aren't making sufficient margin. At least in the cost effective sense. If you sell 80% more selling for half the normal price, you still don't make what you would've made selling for 80% less at normal price. In fact, you probably lost money. At half the margin, you need to double your sales, minimum.

That's IF you are selling at a very nice 50% margin. If you sell for less than that, -- and for most product most of the time, you do sell for less than that -- then even selling double won't make up for the loss. (If you get large margins -- 50% or more, I guarantee it won't be long before someone comes along to undercut you. Every time.)

If I sell you a 1.00 item that I bought for .60, at 20% off -- that is half my profit margin. For you, the significant number is 20%. For me, the significant number is 50%.

But even if you succeed at selling more material -- you still have to replace it. In fact, you have to replace twice as much material. Your cost of goods in effect is twice as much, so you have to sell more of it faster.

It's a downhill slide, I tell you.

You have no margin for error. If something stops selling, you're probably going to lose money. Selling half the product at full price to break even is a much more comfortable place to be than have to sell 80% of the product before you break even.

It's hell on the cash flow -- being positive sooner is a great benefit to a business.

Sometimes you have no choice. But whenever you can charge the S.R.P, you should try to do it.

Not because I'm greedy. But because by buying at S.R.P I can stay in business, buy more material, buy material that has slightly less demand or sells slightly slower, have sufficient stock in place, and so on.

S.R.P. makes me a better store, which helps me to sell for full price, which helps me to be a better store, which helps me to sell for full price....

My guy got snookered.

First of all, let me make it clear that there is no way on God's Green Earth that I won't vote for Obama in the next election. There is not a Republican in sight who I would vote for, instead.
That said, I'm not happy.

1.) I think Obama has a cautious and consensus building personality, not a daring and confrontation one.

2.) I think he is fundamentally more conservative -- moderate-- than I expected.

3.) I think he listens to experts a little too much.

The first point is O.K. I think his personality is probably the only kind that could have survived the crazies.

The second point, well, I'm a bit surprised, but I just made the assumption he was liberal, when he's pretty much an establishment kind of guy.

The third point is the one I'm disappointed in; and it shows that he probably needed slightly more seasoning as a leader.

To me, Tim Geithner is his Rumsfield. Obama just bought into their bullshit, and when he had the political momentum, didn't do anything about Wall Street.

Nothing was solved. Nothing was resolved. No one went to jail. No effective changes were made. We are all going to pay the price for years to come.

It's just sad.

O.K. Mr. Smartypants.

I was going to write a followup to yesterday's post about how "BLOODY OBVIOUS" the downturn was -- to say, well, I don't really believe that.

No need.

Today pretty much proved that point.

eh?

"Great kid. Don't get cocky!"

I've made a few decisions over the last year that didn't work out, I just haven't talked as much about them. They were necessary decisions where the timing wasn't fortuitous.

Which is what usually happens, you know?

I realize from my store that things that seem "bloody obvious" aren't; and things that seem unlikely -- are.

The story takes over.

I wrote three and a half chapters over the last 4 days, after averaging a chapter every two weeks.

I had a clear shot at it. I knew what the next 4 chapters were going to be about and just went ahead and wrote them.

It's much easier to write once you're this far in. I figure by now, a reader is with me, and I don't have to sweat over every little word. I want to get the plot down as quickly as possible, knowing I will have to go back later to flesh it out.

Once thing I'm hoping I won't have to do, is completely reorganized the book. So far, most of the changes have been little, and can be fixed with simply adding a few paragraphs here in there. More in the way of reconciliation.

It looks now, like I won't have the problem of making such a huge change (discovery) late in the plot that requires a complete overhaul. My first book was harder than hell to fix, my second and third books came easy, my sixth book was rewritten and reorganized so many times I got sick of it, and the seventh book NEEDED a complete reorganization.

After these four chapters are done, I think I'm somewhere between a third and half way through.

I got the premise in place, the characters, the set-up, now I need to plot out the second half.

So I'll be waiting for a big idea, there. Something that really propels me forward.

I've never gotten this far into a book without finishing, so I think it's going to happen.

Timing the market

I made a big 250 dollars on my Barnes and Noble investment. I probably could have done 3 to 4 times that much, if I'd sold at the peak. But I stuck with it not because of the money but because I wanted to understand the timing of such things.

As far as I can tell, one has to be very far in advance of the upturns and downturns, for them to do you any good. But you have to sell pretty much immediately when there has been a dramatic change...

So I tried to learn from that small investment, and reacted to the news a few weeks ago by making a bigger move. As I mentioned, I took about half the available funds out of the stock market about 3 weeks ago.

It just didn't seem that there could possibly be any good news out of the debt negotiations. I thought there might be a Tarp like drop of 700 points when it got to within a couple days to the deadline.

Instead, over the three week period, including today, it went down about 700 points, little by little.

I went back into the market today, though I held about a third back into very safe, conservative, non-stock type investments.

By my calculations, I saved about 5% by pulling out when I did.

It's more than possible that the market will continue to drop for awhile, but I'm back in for the "long term" unless there is an equally obvious moment to "time" the market.

I mean, it seems so obvious to me that the market was going to go down -- and I was right. I know Timing the Market can't be counted on, but really...there are times when you absolutely should time the market.

Go back 3 weeks. Was there ANY chance there was going to be an easy solution? Did no one else hear the "Let It Burn" sentiment from the Tea Party? Was there not at least a small chance it could all crash?

Most importantly, what were the chances that the stock market would actually go UP over the last 3 weeks? I deemed the chances as pretty much zero.

Cash? I have the same cash I started with.

So why play with fire? Why wasn't this obvious?

Like I said. I'm believe truly that one probably shouldn't time the market.

Except, you know, when it's BLOODY OBVIOUS!!

Come on, people. Think!

I've been wanting to write about this for awhile -- if I had, I suppose I would look prescient. (For those of you who don't read the Bulletin, it appears that the young 16 year old cyclist was killed by a motorist who may have been texting...)

It seems to me that there is a common denominator in many of the traffic accidents I've been reading about in the paper. That combined with what I see myself every day on the roads.

What I am seeing is a whole lot of tail-gating. Worse, it seems like no one is paying attention to the cell phone law. And I just don't know what to say to the people who actually text!

I had someone zoom up on my the other day who's back end was smashed in. She could barely keep her car on the road, and I saw her wrenching the steering wheel to the right. Not exactly road safe.

So her back end was smashed in, how does that compute with tail-gating? Because the less room you leave for yourself to stop, the less room the person behind you has to stop.

Keeping an adequate distance helps not only you from smashing into the guy in front of you, but helps keep the guy behind you smashing into you. Get it?

Thing is, I'm NOT a slow driver. The tail-gating doesn't seem to have any relation to how fast I'm going. They just drive up on the back of whoever is in front of them, apparently.

Time it sometime. Pick a landmark on the side of the road and see how much longer it takes to get to a particular point in the road. It's milliseconds.

Everytime I read about a multiple car accident, I have to believe there was some inadequate distances involved. I think if properly space, cars are less likely to pile up on each other.

Linda came home on Sunday with a harrowing story of a giant truck who almost ran her off the road on the way to church in Redmond. He was talking on a cell phone.

Meanwhile, the other day I was approaching an intersection and I saw a guy in a huge pickup pull out right in front of me. I had an extra ten feet to slow down. Thing it, he didn't EVEN LOOK in my direction. I mean, he stopped at the stop sign, but he might as well not bothered because he didn't EVEN LOOK.

Over and over again, I see erratic driving behavior, and find out the driver is talking on the cell phone.

I know nothing I can say will change anything. I know this is a throw away post and that I'm saying the obvious. All I can do is continue to drive defensively, continue to provide as much space as possible between me and others. Try to avoid what I see as erratic driving from others.

But I sure wish the cops would enforce this tail-gating and cell-phone ban. And throw the book at ANYONE who texts. That's just crazy.

I've been doing this budgeting thing all wrong.

Damn. I've been going about this budgeting thing all wrong. What I really need to do is create a "super-Pegasus" that will make hard decisions down the road. And if they don't make hard decisions, the decisions get made automatically!

Brilliant!

Of course, if I was bigger I could have a Chief Financial Officer who could tell me how much to spend. That is, if I wasn't a bully of a C.E.O. who would badger my C.F.O. and the board to do as I wanted.

"Never mind what I said in the annual report! I need to spend this money!!"

Of course, if I was bigger, I might be tempted like Borders to treat my merchandise as if it was bread and butter, and institute a "category management" program so that I only carried best-sellers. (Never mind that I only KNOW it's a best-seller because A.) someone else has already sold the shit out of it, or B.) I actually carried a wide enough variety of product to ascertain which product sells best.

I look forward to the day when our Digital Overlords simply tell us what we want, and insert it directly into our brains.

A finicky writer.

I wrote not one, but two chapters yesterday.

I've reached the point in the book where ideas are coming fast and furious.

As I've mentioned before, it is around the 50 page mark that I start to get a glimpse of the basic structure of the novel. At this point, I can start to diagram a plot line without it stopping me dead in my tracks. I may or may not even stick to the basic plot line; it doesn't matter. It just matters that I have something to work toward.

I'm amazed that many of the plot elements in the early chapters are still applicable. I don't think its so much because my subconscious had it all figured out, but that my subconscious is adapting to, and arranging the story so it fits. There have been 4 or 5 major plot elements that were included in the earlier chapters that took on significance later in the story.

The sixth chapter is kind of wordy and explanatory. What plot developments there are are character relationships and explanation of the mythos.

The seventh chapter is almost completely flashback, and a bit heavy. I figure by the seventh chapter, I can get away with it.

The story has gotten this far, so I think it has legs. I've got the basic ideas for the next two chapters.

Meanwhile, the 7th chapter catches me back up to my every two week pace. I'd been thinking that this pace was kind of slow, you know? But then I remember that the current formatting for my story is single spaced, and when I used to write books on my typewriter, it was double spaced.

Which explains why it all the threads came together around page 30. Because page 30 translates into page 60, in the old days. It's the tipping point, if you will; the threads have come together, and you can see if you actually have a story worth pursuing or not.

I'm excited that this is my first book with a more or less "high concept"; or an idea that can be explained in a few sentences. I didn't set out to do that, but that's what has emerged. The best I could do with my earlier books was describe them as "quest fantasy" or "heroic fantasy."

So far, at least, none of the later chapters have been a deal breaker; that is, none of them have necessitated going back and completely rearranging and rewriting the earlier chapters.

I have to honest with myself and admit: I really don't like re-writing. I enjoy discovering the story; finding connections. I don't mind smoothing over the language, fleshing out the characters and scenery and plot.

What I don't like is having to completely reorganize the book. It feels like a puzzle to me, and if I take out a significant section of the puzzle, it's extremely difficult to put back together again.

I say I don't like rewriting, but at the same time I'm very capable of becoming obsessive/compulsive about it.

When I started this project, I knew that half the battle would be my writing habits. I'm not worried about being able to write a book -- I've done it seven times before. But I am worried about pacing myself in such a way that I keep the inspiration up, and still have energy at the end to rewrite and improve.

I have to admit: I've missed this. The thrill of the first draft.

But I can also see why I wasn't able to follow through until now. I needed a minimum of time off -- not sure what that minimum is, but apparently I've crossed it. I had a friend visit yesterday while I was in the middle of writing, and it took the rest of the afternoon to recapture the fictional dream I was in.

The full days at the store mean zero writing on those days, or the day after really.

I guess I'm just a finicky writer.

Writing and gardening go together.

I'm going to take my laptop and some lemonade out on the deck, and mosey around the garden.

Ah, the life.

Hopefully, I'll get some good ideas for the next chapter. I gave my subconscious strict instructions last night to give me some dream inspiration. Instead, I dreamed about huge equipment that I was returning to a huge store. Huh?

You'd think the further I get into a story, the more comfortable I'd get with it. But the more possibilities I see, the more pressure I feel. Pressure to complete the story; and to do a good job.

I have to throw out those notions and just write.

Cowboys and Aliens and you've been had.

As much as I was hoping that Cowboys and Aliens would be a good movie -- I'm not surprised it's an empty shell.

Because the comic was such a cynical and manipulated effort that it's simple karma.

It was created by a 'comic' company whose real focus was to sell 'high concept' comic ideas to the movies, so it didn't matter really whether the comic was any good or not. From what I've heard, it wasn't a horrible comic, but not a great one either.

The quality of the comic was beside the point.

Something rubs me wrong when I know that what I do for a living is being used as a tool for something else. I don't like it.

Then they compounded my ill feelings by manipulating the market. Word is, they made a deal with a couple of large retailers, in N.Y. and elsewhere to buy thousands of copies (with the wink, wink, nudge, nudge -- guarantee, anyone?)

Well it doesn't take millions of copies to become the #1 graphic novel for the month.

Thing is, the comic market is so small that it immediately became obvious to everyone that it was bullshit. When most of us order one or two copies, but it becomes #1 in the country, you either wonder if you missed the boat -- or if something stinks. Adding insult to injury, I couldn't get any copies to sell until recently (yeah, yeah, I know....a little hypocrisy.)

And when I did finally get a couple of copies, it immediately went out of print -- again! But then, it wasn't about the comic, was it?

Turned out, something stank.

It was irritating that they were rewarded by a Hollywood contract, even more annoying that they got Harrison Ford and Daniel Craig to star.

But I'm not surprise the movie is pretty lame -- because it was a "Snakes on a Plane" idea in the first place.

Who needs a good movie?

The Real Economy in Bend.

You know it went in the toilet with the Great Recession, and as far as I can see, it still is circling the bowl.

Whatever the media is convinced to say.

Whatever the politicians want to say.

Whatever the P.R. people hope you'll say.

Whatever the business community is willing to say.

Whatever the economists are trying to say.


Individual results can't be used as measure, in my opinion. I've just had an absolutely great month: up about 15% after having 14 months of downturns. I'm pretty certain August will also be better than last year. Because I was prepared for a 10% downtick, I've had a 25% boost to my earnings. I'm pretty sure that's going to happen in August, too. Cool.

The Real Economy hasn't changed, however. It just means there was a bottom to the market, and then a new plateau and then another bottom and then another uptick -- and it doesn't distract me from the idea that the fundamentals -- housing sales and prices; unemployment; and idiot politicians haven't changed.

It seems like the further away from the actual real economy an "expert" is, the more clueless he is. The whole idea that we ever came out of the recession, at least here in Bend, is idiotic.

I mean, to me the wise thing to do is expect this kind of slow, slow growth -- if that. You can still make money if you are realistic. It isn't being negative to expect the recession to continue. It's the way you can prepare for the eventual recovery -- whether that happens this year, next year, or years after.

Meanwhile, living in the Real economy is a survival skill.

Debt limit diary.

I think a survival skill is knowing when to panic.

I always wonder how many people in the Twin Towers had the instinct to run, but were convinced by others to "remain calm."

I don't think I panic easily. Y2K looked pretty phony, for instance.

But my feeling about the debt crisis is that, to use to cliche "If you play with fire, you'll get burned."

Tell me we haven't been playing with fire.

I'm writing this on Wednesday, the 27th, with the assumption that some half-assed, halfway measure will pass.

But I also think there is a chance -- that nothing will get passed.

Hey, playing Russian Roulette isn't my idea of a smart thing to do.

**********

Thursday.

I got into a political discussion at the store, which I try to avoid. I avoid politics not because I don't care, but because I get too heated. If you'll notice, I've tried to keep political slants out of this post, except for the basic idea that I think NOT passing the debt limit would probably be a mistake.

But from the mild reaction from the stock market, you have to wonder.

It's probably all kabuki theater. I'm not saying anything new here, just observing from the outside.

**********

O.K. It is now Friday morning, and the Republicans can't summon enough votes.

I'm still going to assume that something will pass, and it will be consolidated with the Reid plan and passed with Democratic and a few Republicans who are willing to risk their career.

Stock market is stable. Down just a little every day. A little hedging, but nothing much.

**********

Friday afternoon. Obviously they've decided to hold off on the vote until after the stock market closes. Which doesn't inspire confidence...

Writing through doubt.

There always comes a moment for me in writing a novel when it sort of all comes together. Suddenly, I know what the book is about and where it's going. In rough form, anyway. Usually, it's about 50 pages in, give or take.

I think I may have hit that point in the fifth chapter. Suddenly, the book takes on heft. Which makes it more of a responsibility, somehow. Like it has a life of it's own. I can't explain it.

We were chatting after writer's group last week, and I popped out; "Writing for me is writing through doubt. Yeah, that's it. Writing through doubt."

No one was much listening, but that thought had a real impact on me. Because that's exactly how I have to see it.

I have to keep writing; and as I write, I'll be conflicted and confused and scared and overwhelmed and self-questioning and worried. Which I just have to ignore and keep writing.

Well it be any good? Doesn't matter. Keep writing.

Has it been done before? Doesn't matter. Keep writing.

Will it make any sense? Doesn't matter. Keep writing.

If doubt is going to stop you, you'll stop a thousand times.

Is Downtown worth it?

Is Downtown worth it?

I've had a few competitors over the years move downtown. With one of them, I took the time to walk the circuit of the core, and tried to explain how seasonal it all was, how one shouldn't be fooled by the crowds that are there when the crowds are there.

Instead, I urged, try to visualize the emptiness when the crowds aren't there.

I tried to explain parking, and how hard it was for drivers to see your store, and how long it took for people to actually find you, if ever.

He went in anyway. And lasted less than a year.

His store had previously been in a mall, and he simply didn't understand that the foot traffic downtown was simply not as steady as a mall, no matter how it looked.

The second competitor had a store that would have been the perfect "destination" store; that is, as long as he located in a reasonably noticeable main street, most of his customers would have found him. If one has viable product, word of mouth is strong. But he chose downtown, instead; he was basically paying twice as much rent downtown, because of the perceived "foot traffic."

But he was such a niche business, the foot traffic added little if any to his bottomline, I believe.

The third competitor started off downtown, as well, then moved to a much bigger spot in a prime location -- but from what I understand, also more than doubled his rent. I think this was O.K. for him as long as he concentrated on making his store attractive to outsiders, but the minute he stopped paying attention, the fanboys became his main customers and his rent became unwieldy.

(By the way, I still think rents are high downtown, despite the perception that things have gotten cheaper. Nor do I think that will change, as long as there always seems to be someone in line to fill the vacancies...)

So why am I downtown?

Well, we've been in this location for 28 years or so. We have generation(s) of customers who know we are here. I've just watched to many examples of stores moving, and losing their customers. Hell, the Book Barn merely moved across the street, and I still had people coming in years later asking where it went!

Plus my store is so packed, that moving would be a huge job. The smaller than ideal size of my store has forced me to be very creative in merchandising. Necessity being the mother of invention. (I've also arranged with my landlord to use some of the downstairs space for storage, which has been a blessing.)

I've designed my store to fit the changing landscape of downtown. New and used books, mainstream type toys, boardgames, pop culture items, and so on.

There is also the fact that, other than the Old Mill, which is suited more for Banana Republic and The Gap than a funky pop culture store, there is almost no place left in Bend where you can get ANY foot traffic.

Finally, and this is something that my competitors didn't see or understand -- my store once was a destination store, pretty much off the beaten track. Sure, I was downtown, but for most of my existence, I wasn't in a part of downtown that was frequented by shoppers.

That all changed, and so the foot traffic is so dramatically higher for my store in particular, that I have seen the benefit.

Would I locate my store in downtown if I was starting out today?

Probably not. My store is probably more than 50% a destination store. So as long as I was visible on a main street somewhere else, that would do the job. If I could trade twice the space for half the rent, I'd probably do it.

But I'm ensconced where I am, now. I like my store. But, still, I'd advise my competitors not to read too much of my success downtown as a reason to come downtown. Don't do as I do, do as I say. ..

Toughened rules for events? yeah, right.....

What I take away from the article on road closures and noise complaints. (Bend May Toughen Rules For Events.) The Bulletin, 7/26/11.

1.) Gosh, golly, gee -- a city councilor and a city planning commissioner got 'inconvenienced' so they are going to get paid some lip service.

2.) "Warnings" as a solution. Whatever. Telling me something is going to be inconvenient doesn't make it less so.

3.) They won't be having any hard rock shows at Troy Field.

4.) None of the participants sound like they want to change anything much -- mostly looks like a P.R. campaign to smooth the complaints. When it dies down, it will be business as usual.

5.) Walk a mile in my shoes. The shoe is on the other foot. I loved the remark by Cameron Clark at the end of the article "...the art wasn't interested in what we had to say."

Well, exactly, Cameron. Pretty much what I've been saying about YOU and YOUR events for years....You set up wherever and whenever and however you want, not making any attempt to make it easier for my store.

6.) It wasn't long ago that the city councilors decided they could abrogate the rules as they see fit. So go ahead and make more rules. As long as the event cloaks itself as a "worthy" cause, they will get the go-ahead.

7.) It won't change until it becomes so overwhelmingly destructive that even the timid citizens and business owners rise up. And of course, there will always be the caveat for "existing events." So even then, not much will change. Personally, I think we went beyond the useful number of events years ago.

8.) Nothing will change. Events will be added, lengthened, made bigger and noisier. If the majority like it, the minority can suck eggs.

Some new shows to watch.

We went to see Captain America yesterday, and it was lots of fun. Love the retro-future stuff. I noticed that they are turning The Three Musketeers into a steampunk thing; which is a cool idea.

I can't believe I missed Green Lantern. Just seemed to have something come up every time we were ready to go.

Meanwhile, on T.V. I'm enjoying True Blood, which just seems to be getting campy-er every season.

We have tried Torchwood, which I'm not convinced I like yet, and which is definitely a risque program -- same channel as Spartacus, I remind myself.

Stumbled across Alphas on the Syfy channel (which usually has some pretty weak shows) and to my surprise, it's very well done. I like the characters, the plots, the writing and dialogue. The 'super' powers are intriguing -- just significant enough to matter but not so overwhelming as to become the sole focus.

I swear, there is one actress on the show who looks exactly like a dark-haired Sarah Michelle Gellar. We kept going back and forth on it -- she is an ensemble player, she looks too young -- and then we'd get a closeup and damn...

Credits proved it wasn't her...Of course the fact I like this show means it's doomed.

I have totally lost patience with Falling Skies. They just keep doing stupid things -- what I call "A moron show." Linda likes it, so I'm watching with her and trying not to scoff too much when they do something boneheaded.

The (No) News of the World.

This seems like one of those times when there is lots of news -- but none of it is NEWS, you know?

San Diego Con has wrapped up. This event has become overwhelmingly Hollywood, a pop culture extravaganza, more than a comic show. Which fits into my postings a couple of days ago about positioning my store as a "pop culture" store.

Ironically, had a discussion with another dealer over on retailer's comic bulletin board, who responded to a post I made about "ignoring" digital, by saying, "How can you ignore the 800 pound gorilla in the room?" Ironically, the name of his store is Pop Culture, but he sells "100% comic merchandise", while my store is called Pegasus Books, and I sell about half books (comics and otherwise) and half pop culture.

Some comic dealers are totally joining the DC effort to get them to sign up for a third site and turning over their customers for a .30 payoff. Seems nuts to me. What do they need ME for? Especially when Marvel and the others aren't making any such arrangements; they're skipping the middle man.

Seems to me that DC is just saying, "Yes, we are going to screw you. But at least we're providing a condom!"



Other non-news. Apparently, no one really believes that the government won't raise the debt ceiling. I don't believe it either -- but like I said, I worry that one of the drivers will get their coat caught on the door of the speeding car and they'll sail over the cliff.

There seems to be a part of us that wants it all to blow up. But I know from wishing such things on product lines in my store that it NEVER pans out. (Like wishing that the sports card collapse would clear away the riff raff; never happened.) It's not even all that satisfying when something self-destructs. It just seems stupid and painful afterwards.


Made my annual contribution to the biking classic (that is, I lost the usual amount of money...)
Sales were about half on Sat. from the previous three day average. But everyone seemed to be having fun, so what are you gonna do?


My DC orders came in at basically two and half times to normal numbers. The normal numbers were pretty depressed, and I seem to have more than half of the increase covered by advanced requests -- and if worse comes to worse, I can return most of the product for credit.

Still it's enough to make me nervous.

It all depends on how the news breaks when the product is actually available. Maddening sometimes how much publicity we get when the product isn't available, and then how little when it is -- but timing the media must be extraordinarily difficult.

As they say, we can always hope for a slow news day....

Hey, I can return what I don't sell? Go crazy!

I'm doing my September comic orders this weekend.

My DC orders for September are coming in about about double the normal level.

To remind everyone, DC comics are starting 52 titles over again at number #1. Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, Flash, Green Lantern -- all the big names, as well as a bunch of new (or old, defunct) titles: Nightwing, Batwoman, Justice League international.

It felt like a struggle to keep it down to double. I handed out "interest" sheets, and signed up people for a huge number of new titles.

I got them to fill out the sheet by telling them that the title they express interest in would be "optional". They could buy them or not. And I'm going to tell them they can return them for credit.

The danger is, they will either not buy after all, or they will return them because they don't like them, or they will drop the title after a month or two.

It was a real eye opener for me how many people expressed interest. Some titles I would have had no idea that I should order higher; Justice League Dark, for instance.

It's got me thinking that -- if this works, I need to find an excuse to list all the Marvel titles for people to fill out a sheet; and all the Dark Horse and Image and so on.

Of course, this starting over at #1 may be the trigger I can't reproduce.

My DC are higher than Marvel for the first time in ages. When DC went to a higher minimum per month for the bigger discount level, I found even with all the graphic novels I sell, I would come up just a little short of the level every month, even when I was looking for extra stuff to buy.

Once I can can't reach a plateau, I feel like I have no incentive to order the extra -- in fact, I have the opposite incentive. Since I can't lose the next lower level, I pare it down. So I've been WELL below the that better level for a long time.

I easily hit Marvel's higher level without trying.

It used to be the other way around, by the way.

If nothing else, I'm hoping this venture will push me permanently into the higher bracket for DC. I went into this thinking that if I get a semi-permanent boost in subs, it'll be a winner. I'm not thinking, with any decent response from non-regulars, we might see much more than that.

Of course, the higher the sales, the higher the risk, but that's showbiz.

"Hopefully this relaunch doesn't set off a rush of similar relaunches over the rest of the publishers as a sales incentive as well." A comment from one of the other comic shops.

With all these new sign-ups I've gotten, I actually wonder if it wouldn't be a good thing....

I think what I'm seeing are people who have always wanted, in the back of their minds, to buy Batman or Superman, but haven't because it seemed too overwhelming.

I think I'm seeing people who might sign up for Nightwing or Red Hood, but because they aren't paying attention, miss the first few issues and then skip it altogether.

I hope that I'll have time to absorb the lessons of this surge first, though. It may be that we will have a backlash. Normally, a comic I put on someone's shelf as an 'optional' will be bought; usually if I say they can return it for 'credit' they don't. Usually they continue to buy that comic for awhile.

So we'll see.

Meanwhile, I'm having such a good summer, I'm thinking of holding back a couple of thousand for cash-flow and investing even more in the DC titles -- with the idea that I can return them.

They have three incentive levels.

For some of the biggest titles, we'll get variant covers. For half a dozen other titles, they'll give us 15% extra. For all the rest, they'll give us the right of return, at a 10% charge.

The incentive covers, unfortunately, aren't much of an incentive for me. The 15% extra, more so. The returns seem like a no brainer. But I've still got to PAY for these comics in the short run, even if I get money back in the long run, so I need to be conscious of the cash-flow. One good thing is, I can currently afford to spend a little extra -- with July and August and December in this half of the year. By the time I get the credits -- first half of next year -- I could probably use them...

I've got to mix that alchemy in such a way that I don't lose money.