Downtown Comings and Goings.

I hate to argue with good news, but I don't think there has been a particular acceleration of new businesses downtown. Despite the headline in the Bulletin, "Businesses are filling downtown vacancies," I hadn't noticed that the pace had picked up.

A better headline might have been: "We're holding our own! We're hanging in there!" but I don't know if that would be news. (In fact, in the text of the article, it mentions there was an actual DROP in the vacancy rate from 95% to 93% from the last quarter.)

It's great though, that there are businesses willing to come in.


I added Let It Ride! to my list. All the others had been included weeks to months ago.


NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(Fall, 2008 or so.)

Buying arc.

Over the last few weeks, I've gone on a bit of a buying binge.

The following posts are done chronologically from my initial enthusiasm, to my eventual slight buyer's remorse.

**********


January 10, 2011.

I am being extremely aggressive right now in my ordering. It feels right. It feels like the time.

First of all, I don't think the economy is going to collapse. It's always on the verge, you know, but not much more than usual, right now.

Secondly, I don't think my store's sales are going to collapse. Christmas was good, and this month has held up so far. I'm confident I know where the bottom is -- and how much more than that I'm likely to do.

Third, I don't think the product lines I'm selling are going to collapse. Indeed, I think I can actually build on sales in books and games, and shore up sales in card games and comics and toys. Even sports cards and manga. I feel as though I have a good sense of where all the product lines are headed and what can be done about it.

Fourth, I think Bend is still floating downward, but that I'm taking that into account and working around it.

I'm betting that I can get back to my target average, if not this year, then next. I'm betting that I can spend my target budget and at least break-even. I'm betting that by aggressively stocking the store, I can get sales moving upward again.

**********

January 20, 2011.

The store is completely stocked, top to bottom.

Now all I need is customers...

Heh.

I probably have made a huge mistake. If so, I'll be carrying the balance through until the summer. No real harm done.

I continue to find ways to stock everything. My instincts seems to be pretty finely honed. For instance, I got 3000.00 worth of retail games yesterday, and there was just enough room to put them out, with nothing to spare. Literally, I spent the last half hour trying to find a space for the last box.

A few days ago, I stacked all the Penguin books on one shelf, and probably made room for another 20 books. I've got three bookcases devoted to fantasy art, and I always figured that would be winnowed down to about two cases, so that will free up room for another 75 - 100 books. (I've got another 300 coming, but I'll deal with them when they show up...)

And so on.

As long as everything goes out on the floor for sale, I'm cool with it.

I've packed the store because that seems to be the thing that works. It sometimes feel a little over the top, but I can't argue with results. If product starts having to be stored in the basement, I'll know I reach the limits. So far, except for except toys that come in every case, and unsalable back issue comics, most everything has found a place on in the store.

Makes life interesting.

**********

January 25, 2011.

I may have overdone it a bit.

It's not that I can't sell the product. It's not that I can't afford it. It's not even that I can't find a place to squeeze it in.

It's that...well, it's slightly unnecessary. I've already got a full store. This is...extra.

I have a tendency to want to fill in every single niche, to fell that beer stein to overflowing.

It's like I can't accept a weak product, even when it's weak. I've been ordering manga, for instance. I've been ordering superhero action figures.

I have to say, though, I've been a pretty good boy through most of the Great Recession. It's only been in the last couple of months that I have felt comfortable enough to buy to my limits.

Now we find out if the store is rewarded with sales, or not...

**********

January 28, 2001.

What I've done is spruce up categories that I was letting sit fallow. There is a time to do these things, and I gauged it was time to reinvest in action figures, manga, and especially magic cards.

Magic sales have gone up, for whatever reason. So I decided to bring in all the affordable packs I could get.

I can see a path to growth in manga, though it remains to be seen if it actually happens. Picking the best ongoing series and filling them in.

On toys, I just decided that it was time to fill in; so I ordered Iron Man, Marvel Superheros, Spider-man, Twilight, and Star Wars. All were slightly discounted, so the 10% or so I save, makes it slightly easier to justify.

The book orders, which I enjoy immensely, are probably where I didn't really need to order, but did anyway. Because they were available.

Thing is -- they are always available. That's where I question my spending.

But, I also know that a healthy store needs to be somewhat aggressive to keeps it's edge.
Time to flex my muscles a bit.

Bend's quagmire.

How to turn a gift into a boondoggle.

Wiki Definition: BOONDOGGLE: A term for a scheme that wastes time and money. (See also:
Cost Overrun; Megaproject.)

Once upon a time, the City of Bend was gifted 1500 acres of land. Yes, "gifted."

Caught in the throes of a land boom, the city council decided to create a 'megaproject,' and hired outside consultants to develop the land. The plans flopped, but the consultants were paid off millions of dollars. So far, Bend has spent 18 million dollars in development costs.

Meanwhile, the Oregon Department of Transportation said, "Wait a minute. You don't have the infrastructure for a megaproject!"

Meanwhile, it turns out that developing megaprojects actually costs some investment; like with sewers (estimated $15 million) and roads and such ($7.3 million.)


Meanwhile, the boom collapses.


The Bulletin's Headline is: "Bend May Profit off Juniper Ridge."

But reading the fine print, you really have to wonder why they chose that wording. (Actually, I'd love to know why they printed that headline. Did they read their own article?)

Turns out, Bend has to sell 7.5 acres A YEAR, for ELEVEN YEARS STRAIGHT, at DOUBLE THE COST OF OTHER INDUSTRIAL LAND and with ESCALATING RATES!!! ($7.5 million profit on $82 million in sales? -- ouch.)

Sorry to shout, but just read that sentence again....(??!!?)

This, of course, in a down economy. With competition from Redmond and other parts of Bend which have suddenly become very, very available. As the city of Bend's general fund is facing a $17 to $27 million dollar shortfall over the next five years....

Since 2005, the city has managed to sell $9.5 million worth of land to three businesses. (All of which had a presence in Central Oregon already.) By my reckoning, that's less than 2 million per year, of which the first three years were in an unprecedented boom. A once in a lifetime boom.

But suddenly, we're going to sell three and half times that much land per year, with no hiccups, at twice the going rate? (And the reason a business would pay double the going rate? Because Juniper Ridge is "unique." I'm sorry, as a businessman I'd like to know how that translates into profits for my business...)

The two new city councilors express some doubt, but they've obviously been captured by the group think over there at city hall. They seem so married to this project, that they can't let it go.

It's a quagmire, and they can't seem to extricate themselves. They seem to be worried about morale and momentum and wounded pride; when they should be worrying about not bankrupting Bend.

I don't know what the costs of mothballing would be, but this just seems like throwing good money after bad. They mention that they can sell some land before improvements need to be made, and it would seem to make sense to sell that land first and then see where they stand.

At least get some commitments, before going forward. How about some nibbles?

Let's see if I can sum this up: In an economic time known as the Great Recession, the City of Bend is planning to sell $7.5 million dollars a year for the next 11 years at twice the going rate (and escalations built in) when they've only managed to sell $9.5 million in the preceding five years, three of which were in one of the biggest land booms in history but in order to do so they have to invest at least 22.3 million in infrastructure not counting what ODOT is going to want at a time when we are facing a $27 million dollar shortfall in the general fund.

Because....we don't want to retreat. It sends the "wrong message."

But really, you have to wonder what they're thinking. Sound like a big roll of the dice, to me. A Hail Mary pass. Actually, those have some chance of success. I think this is more like jumping out of airplane and hoping you land in pile of hay.

It's Wednesday. (but feels like Thursday.)

I have to say, for all my doubts and for all his faults, I was much more likely to watch Olbermann than Mathews or O'Donnell. And if I watched Olbermann, I was much more likely to watch Maddow.

Just saying...

**********

Tried watching the second episode of The Cape and it was unwatchable....

**********

Off to a rip-roaring reading start for the year. I'll have read at least 8 books, depending. (I'll try to do reviews at the end of the month...)

It pulls me away from the T.V., which is a good thing.

**********

I have to say, my comic sales are surprisingly strong, considering how weak my subscription shelves are. I was always in fear that without my subs, the comic sales would die off. But that doesn't seem to be happening.

I also make 20% more profits from comics purchased from the display racks.

Cool.

**********

On Monday, just to get out of the house, (Linda was at a doctor check-up), I got in the car and just started driving North. I like exploring all the "market" roads between Redmond and Sisters.

About ten miles toward Sisters, I pulled off on Fryear Rd. and about four miles beyond that I found the Fryear Canyon Trails. (I pulled off on a utility road about a mile before that, but I got the willies from the remains of homeless camps and whiskey bottles.)

I don't know if there are maps to be found of all the public access trails -- local, county, state and federal. But I'm going to start drawing my own crude maps in a notebook, so someday I won't have to wander around for so long before finding a likely spot.

**********

Funny how you have the same schedule for years, and then it changes -- but your body still thinks the old schedule.

I wake up Wednesday mornings thinking I need to hurry to get ready for the comic shipments.

Then I remember I dealt with them last night.

But having dealt with the comics, I think I need to do the weekly liquidation orders from Diamond -- but those aren't until tomorrow.

I think I'm autistic. I don't like the routines messed with!

**********

Having money in the stock market is just weird. It seems so detached from day to day reality. Making money doing nothing at all.

Of course, I'm aware I could just as easily lose money doing nothing at all.

But it's weird.

Happy to own my own business.

Both Linda and I have commented lately on how happy we are to be in control of our own fates.

Every time I read an article in the Bulletin like today's "Older Workers Lean On Each Other In Job Hunt", I'm thankful that whatever happens, I'll be able to adjust up or down, without someone else pulling the rug out from under me.

I read somewhere that stress induced by a-hole bosses was way worse than any stress that comes from self-owned business -- because you can't do anything about your bosses and what they may do to you. It may be an illusion, but I feel like if I have problems, I can try to respond to them by changing.

**********

Meanwhile, the split between the national and the local economy starts to grow larger.

Some of the questions bubble bloggers had a few years ago are starting to be answered.

There was a school of thought, for instance, that Bend would do better than the national economy. I thought the opposite, because I had seen in the '80's that Bend has to struggle alone out of the abyss, without much synergy from the surrounding communities.

Housing prices continue to drop, both locally and nationally. A double dip, if you will. Again, there were actually quite a few people who thought Bend housing prices would hold up -- whereas, I thought the opposite. I thought we'd be hammered. The worst. Devastation.

(You still see local real estate blogs blurring the lines of national and local, and cherry-picking statistics....I have to wonder if they're fooling anyone, or just damaging their own credibility.)

Still, nationally, consumer confidence is rising.

Locally? I noticed the population sign at the edge of town is 80,999 which-- correct me if I'm wrong -- is several thousand less than a couple years ago. (Another disputed point; I thought it likely we'd lose population, but most doubted that...)

A quote from another business article, "Economic Forecast To Include 1,000-Day Road Map,"

"Three years after the recession started, Bend is still losing jobs. That is not a good sign for area businesses," said Bill Watkins, director of the Central Oregon Economic Forecast Project..."

As bad as it is, and as bad as it still may get, the one positive I'm taking from all this is --well, at least I know where we stand. I can make reasonable assumptions and forecasts, and operate from there.

Because I own my own business, I can make the adjustments I think are necessary...

**********

Living in a paradigm shift

We live in interesting time. It's a cliche to say that -- but oh, so apropos.

The entire business world is being turned upside down. It's fascinating to watch.

My own little niches are being affected perhaps more than most retail. Books, comics, games. All are moving to digital manifestations. Sales of everything else I carry -- toys, t-shirts, etc. can all be found online at basically wholesale prices.

Yesterday morning it was announced that Wizard and Toyfare are ceasing their print editions. This is a big deal; Wizard was part of that comic boom in the 90's; and the go-to price guide for much of the last two decades.

There are rumors of cutbacks at both Marvel and DC; which both moved more into the mainstream parts of Warner and Disney, after being segregated for a generation as an overlooked backwater.

It confirms to me that being diversified is the ONLY way to go. Comics and graphic novels are half my business -- but not my entire business, which they easily could have been.

Strangely, I don't see future overall strength in any of the product lines I carry -- but I see ways to be a stronger player than my competitors, which should be enough to see me through to the end of this paradigm shift -- or the end of my career, whichever come soonest.

In other words, if I'm very savvy and canny, I can assemble the strongest parts of a bunch of weak sisters, into one strongly meshed business.

I find it all interesting to follow, like watching a trainwreck. You know the wreck isn't a good thing, but it's so damn mesmerizing!

A writing spouse.

Linda has been writing up a storm over the last few days.

I'm trying not to bug her, which is hard, you know. I always have comments to make, but I don't want to break her fictional dreamstate.

She often dreams names of characters, which are so evocative to her that they invite story. She also usually dreams up a scenario to start out --

Her writing is usually a cue for me to start writing fiction too, but I've decided not to do that this time. It's not that we become competitive, but the focus gets diluted, and I think it's her turn to have the full attention.

I'm not sure if she's going to read at writer's group tomorrow (7:00 PM at the Bookmark): I think I'd almost advise her not to. I don't think she need anything but encouragement to keep writing.

I'm going to listen whenever she wants to read, but not offer comment. I think that's the best way to keep her going....

I'm trying to be more thoughtful this time around; more supportive. She deserves it.

Indie bookstores are still relevant!

When I go on the Shelf Awareness website, it seems like the message is -- "Don't worry. Independent bookstores still have a place!" But then they go and subvert the message, by making nonsensical arguments that We Too can sell e-books. Which I simply don't believe.

Five years ago, the message the American Booksellers Association was pawning off was: Be interactive! Have events! Coffee and magazines! Book signings! Contests! Wine and Circuses and Clown costumes!

(They still say that, though it doesn't seem to be working...)

At the same time, the ABA seemed to be telling all their members to sell online. Maybe that's the salvation of independent bookstores!

(Only that didn't seem to work either...)

Now they are saying we should sleep with the enemy -- if you can't beat them join them -- cut our own throats. Sell e-books!

Whatever.

So the numbers I'm hearing is 2200 indie bookstores left. Ouch.

Central Oregon has 5 full service independent bookstores -- which is probably about 4 times more than most metro areas our size. (Not that there is anything wrong with this -- the other areas need more bookstores, you know?)

Shelf Awareness is constantly posting the closings of stores; and/or the selling of stores. They try to counteract this negative news with positive messages from new owners.

Thing is, the voice of experience -- closing or selling, have a whole lot more weight with me than the starry eyed declarations of new store owners -- either those who buy an existing store or those who are opening new ones.

A significant development is that Looking Glass Bookstore in Portland is going to close if they can't find a buyer by March. My memory of this bookstore was that it was the kind of bookstore I wanted to be when I grew up.

I don't think e-books are putting independents out of business -- but they are the straw that breaks the camel's back. Years of competition from the likes of Barnes and Nobles, followed by years of Amazon and other online retailers, followed by mass market incursions from Walmart and Costco, and ---now -- e-books. Only so many battles you can win before you use up all your soldiers.

I'm fortunate that I'm coming from a different direction -- everything but e-books was in place before I started buying new books. I call this coming up from underneath the problem (instead of having the problem cut out the ground beneath you.)

But I make no pretense of being a full service bookstore -- just a store with good books. I pass almost entirely on non-fiction, except popular authors like Tom Wolfe and Hunter Thompson and Jon Krakauer and/or pop culture books. I don't spend a whole lot of time pouring over new releases, unless they already interest me. I'm picking off the low-hanging fruit; books I know will sell.

Classics, favorites, cult, and quirky.

I still think independent bookstores are going to be around when all the dust settles; they may handle the e-book phenomenon better than the big chains even.

But it isn't going to be easy.

There is no longer a market for collectables...

...there are individual collectibles that sell in the market.


My store has slowly transitioned away from being a "collector's" store with collector pricing, to a store that sells everything for the original retail price. (Exceptions would be singles -- comics, cards, that have to recoup their cost of opening, or cover the cost of storing and displaying -- but even here, it's rare that anything is priced very high.)

"Collecting is what happens after the product leaves the store," is what I've been telling people.

It's my belief that the internet has flattened the prices for most collectibles.

Imagine if you will, 20 years ago, someone had been searching for a long time for a particular toy, and he finds it in a 'collector's' store. He would've known that he might never again see that toy, and would've paid a premium for it.

Now? He can go online, and there will be more than one person selling that item -- and because there is more than one, there will be some pricing competition.

I think, in fact, there is no longer a "Market" for most collectibles I used to carry: toys, cards, comics, books, games, whatever. There are individual items that people are looking for, but usually it's only the hardest to get, and the most rare, and probably the highest priced.

There just aren't enough of those to go around.

If, for instance, the only sportscards that will sell are Mickey Mantle cards, in fine or mint condition -- well, only a few stores are going to have the wherewithall to carry those.

A "Market" implies a broader range of material selling: high price, low price, medium price. Rare, Uncommon and Common. There is a synergy to the process -- selling old cards (comics, books, toys, etc.) helps sell new cards helps sell supplies helps sell price guides, etc. etc.

Unfortunately, if you take away too many parts -- like selling boxes and packs of cards cheaply at Walmart -- then the singles market no longer functions, either.


I have to tell you, I'm totally O.K. with all this. I really want to sell product for the original reason anyone ever bought anything -- because they enjoy it. They read the comics, they collect the cards, they play with the toys -- because that pleasure will always be there.

In fact, selling a toy that will never be opened is --- anti-toy. Selling a comic that will be slabbed in a "Graded" sleeve -- is anti-comic/anti-reading.

And I'm happy to no longer have to justify, to explain, why my prices might be different than what it originally was. There is a liberation in being able to say to folk: "We charge retail. The Suggested Retail Price." Most customers instinctively know what I'm saying and they either accept it or they don't; but it doesn't require anymore explanation than that.

Like I said, this doesn't have to keep people from collecting: after they leave the store. I'm just no longer part of that world.

Listen to the storekeeper, he knows best....

Owning a store has certainly changed the way I buy stuff from other stores.

Even though I'm not much of a consumer, on those rare occasions when I do buy something, I try to take the advice of the salesman. If -- and admittedly this is a big If -- if I think the salesman is trying to give me his best advice and not just trying to sell me something.

I can't tell you the number of times I've known -- known from 30 years of selling this stuff -- exactly what the customer wanted and needed. Only to have the customer pick something that I knew -- just knew -- wouldn't satisfy him in the end. After remonstrating a couple of times, trying to use soft reasoning, I'll give in. The customer wants what the customer wants.

But basically, a smart retailer wants you to be happy and satisfied so you'll come back.

I also use this approach when I start buying into a new product line. I'll ask the rep. for advice. If he steers me wrong, I never go back. But if he steers me right, I listen to him even more the next time.

There have been occasions when I had a preconceived notion of what I wanted, and the rep would try to talk me out of it and I ignored him. And almost always -- he was right. Not always, but often enough to make me take notice.

Confrontational tactics probably backfire more often than not. Ask me nicely for advice, and I'd be more likely to bendover backward to find what you need. I might even give you a discount. "I'm giving you a bit off," I say, "Because I talked you into it." Being demanding will probably just get the retailer to close down and hide behind polite but fixed regular procedures.

If you've given the salesman sufficient and accurate information about what you want, he'll probably be able to steer you right.

Now, I suspect this works with repeat type business; not so much that once in a blue moon purchase. (Which is why car salesmen and real estate agents are more dangerous...)

And you have to have a pretty good bullshit detector; which being a salesman myself I like to think I do. You want to avoid fly-by-night stores because they aren't in it for the long run and could care less if you buy the 'right' thing; which is also a pretty good argument for avoiding flea markets and e-bay, come to think of it.

Still, I think generally, most storekeepers want you to buy the right thing because you'll be so happy with it you'll come back and buy more.

This takes more faith in the average goodness of retailers than most customers possess these days, but there it is. I suppose you might test the salesman with a smaller purchase, and see if he's right.

Of course, in the mass market world you're in danger of running into salesmen who: 1.) don't know anything or 2.) don't care. And, of course, all bets with phone or e-mail salesmen; in fact, I refuse to buy anything that way. Buying something cheaper isn't helpful if you buy the wrong thing, or if you buy something this isn't as good as something slightly more expensive.

It's a false savings.

Another argument for buying from a specialty retailer.

In essence, I'm saying "Trust me." Which is a phrase that usually has customers backing away.

But I just haven't had that many bad experiences buying product from salesmen in my own industry. They are usually honest and helpful. So....I'm willing to believe that in most cases -- obviously not all, that would be naive -- but in most cases, the salesman in front of you isn't trying to screw with you.

Disneyland in Redmond.

Looking at that picture on the front of today's Local section in the Bulletin of Redmond's urban planning made me think of Disneyland.

"An Ambitious Plan," says the headline.

To say the least.

Reading about the financing made my eyes blur. O.K. I'm just not that wonky about public policy. But what I seemed to be reading was: An Urban Renewal District would raise revenue by renewing the urban landscape and increasing land values. They would do this by investing. The money they would invest would come from ....

Oh, hell.

It's magic. Money for nothing. Land values would increase -- because....they would improve the land. Land would be improved because land values increase. A perfect fusion machine. A perpetual motion money raising machine that would cost us nothing.

If I may be impertinent, I'd like to ask a couple of questions.

1.) Are you going to raze all the existing structures all at once to create that parklike zone?

If not, how will a piecemeal tearing down and replacing affect existing businesses, who are trying to make a living now, today, and tomorrow? (Have you ever tried to conduct a profitable business while the streets and buildings next to you are torn down?)

2.) If you don't even have the money to fix up existing buildings, what makes you think you'll have the money to build brand new ones?


Are these pie in the sky schemes a Central Oregon phenomenon?

Plans are fine. Ambitious plans are....O.K. as a guideline. But really. One step at a time, One REALISTIC step at a time.

Aren't readers great?

Had a customer ask for Balzac.

"You mean, Balllllll-zac, as in The Music Man?"

"Er, I guess. You should try Cousin Bette."

So, I think to myself, any good bookstore should have Balzac, so I order a Penguin copy.

I've sold two in two months. Which is pretty good.

Aren't readers great?

I think I may have to try reading this Cousin Bette, by Honore' de Balzac.

**********

Had a lady bring up a big trade of Anna Karenina, by Leo Tolstoy.

"How much is this?"

"Well, we usually charge half the cover price," I say. I look and it's 5.00. "Oh....how about 3.00."

"That's not enough," she says.

(Contrast this to the woman who wouldn't pay the 1.00 minimum for a .35 cent book. She wanted it for .17).

"Well," I mutter, "If I had caught this I probably would've charged a bit more. But.....I quoted you 3.00 and 3.00 it is...."

"That is not enough," she insists. "I feel guilty..."

"Give me four dollars and walk away with a clear conscience...."

"Thank you!" she says.

Aren't readers great?

**********

Speaking of the Penguin imprint. Another customer told me of a deal he heard that you could get a truckload of every Penguin book in print for 14K or something like that.

I told him, I thought I'd heard of stores that do nothing but sell the Penguin imprint.

When I put Penguin in my distributor's search engine, I get over 5000 answers. (Many of these, are probably duplicates.) As far as I can tell, this is the only publisher imprint the search engine finds.

Meanwhile, in my never-ending quest to find room for books, I'm thinking I may just take all the black-bordered Penguin books and stack them on a single shelf.

Aren't readers great?

**********

One of the interesting things about the book liquidators is they are chock-a-block with classic books. I suspect this is because they have fallen out of copyright and they don't actually have to pay anyone for the titles.

Anyway, I'm thinking it's a no-brainer to order classic novels for a cheaper rate.

And the customers buy them, because they're happy to find a copy of Silas Marner, or Tristam Shandy, or Moll Flanders, or ....well, a world of classic literature.

Aren't readers great?

**********

Another interesting thing about the book liquidators is that they often have copies of graphic novels I've never heard of. Now I'm pretty up on graphic novels, so I'm not sure if these where never offered by Diamond, or I just missed them.

I could have missed them, because they are offering us 100's a month nowadays.

Still, like the classic books, I'm a sucker for any unknown graphic novel I can get for a lower price....

I figure there has to be someone out there looking high and low for these titles.

Aren't readers great?

Why the movie reboots?

I find it strange and weird that they are completely rebooting Spider-man, Batman and Superman. One of them being restarted would be understandable -- but all three? What do they think is going to happen?

I think the big splash was already made -- so unless a whole lot of time passes, like for instance the 16 years between the first Batman movie, and the reboot of Batman Begins, these are going to feel like warmovered leftovers.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe they'll be so spectacularly original that everyone won't shrug.

Then again, it's a lot like what the comics themselves do over and over again. Reboot, start over with a #1.

They get a small boost every time they do it, but it quickly fades.

Wonky store stuff.

I realize the following is pretty store-wonky, but it's the kind of thing I never see written about. Perhaps there are business school scenarios and formulas that explain the following, but I don't know of them. ("Ah, yes," says the Professor, "the Goddwin Principle....")



Christmas and summer sales aren't just healthy because they are bigger than the rest of the year.

They're healthy because they are broader than the rest of the year. That is, you sell a wider array of material.

During regular months with regular customers -- you tend to sell within a narrower range of material. The more specialized the customers, the more specialized the material.

For instance, I can go hours, or even days, where the vast majority of sales are to regulars coming in and buying what's on their subscription shelves and nothing more.

And once all your regulars have passed on a particular product, chances are they aren't going to change their mind later.

Whereas, someone new in the door is going to be open to everything in the store, because he's never seen it before. In fact, he's more likely to buy the passed over product, because he's already gotten the in-demand product in his own base store, and it's more than likely the left-overs at his store are different from the left-overs in my store.

I'll try to explain the benefits of this.

Take a random 10 different items. Let's say that I have doubles on three of those ten items. What this means is, my regulars stopped buying before I got down to the one-of-each I like to keep in stock.

If over the course of a busy season, I sell one each of all 10 items, I won't have to restock at least 30% them, because I had duplicates. (Any product I don't have to replace is worth, more or less, 4 of product I do have to replace.)

If over the course of the slow months, I keep selling say, 5 out of the 10 items, but never the ones I have duplicates of, then I have to replace all 5 items.

But usually, in the slow months, it's worse than that. I'll keep selling, over and over again, the 3 most in demand of the 10 items. Since the other 7 aren't selling, my margins shrink -- and what happens is, either I go into the red to replace the best-sellers, or I start developing spot shortages.

But you need to buy the 3 best-sellers; and if you sell them enough times, they may or may not end up paying for all or part of the 7 slow-sellers.

(One of the advantages to staying mostly out of debt, and having a cash cushion, is that you can replace spot shortages faster, without hurting the store. But then you have debt....)

I don't know if all this is clear: it's a concept I'm still trying to figure out. Much like the realization I had years ago that you can have an active store selling lots of stuff, but still be bleeding red ink under the surface.

(Example: you sell 60% of a product in a week and think you have a winner; so you reinvest. But you only sell 20% more over the next 2 months, and then 10% over the next 4 months; and basically never sell the last 10% of the original order. Meanwhile, you've done the same thing with the second wave of material. If you aren't paying close attention, you will end up with your profits frozen in slow or unsaleable inventory...even though on the surface you may feel you've been busy selling.) (""Ah, yes," says the Professor, "The Carson Formula....")

"The Biebs!"

Linda is utterly consistent in her lack of current pop-culture knowledge.

It's rather endearing.

So we'll be watching Jon Stewart and he'll mention the Kardashians -- and ....I count....one....two...three...wait for it.....

"Who are the Kardashians?"

Heh, heh. I rather enjoy it.

"Who's Snooki?"

I roll my eyes, and mutter, "You're hopeless, babe. Totally hopeless..."

Last month it was Justin Beiber. So I yell out every time I see him, thoroughly embarrassing her. When we went to movies last week, there was a large stand-up of the little mophead.

"Look!" I nearly yelled. "It's Justin Bieber! It's Bieber, babe! It's the Biebs!!!!"

"Shhhhhhhh......"

Twitter blog.

I told the publisher of Duncan the Wonderdog that it was a lousy title.

He said he'd change it to -- McGeary the Wonderdog.

**********

Dick Cheney needs a heart.

For God's Sake give him a heart!

**********

Aspen Lakes files for Chapter 11.

Always funny how they try to make this sound like a GOOD thing...

**********

Got my comics on the shelves in only 40 minutes last night. But I still didn't get home until an hour later. I was able to prepare throughout the day, probably cutting full hour of labor.

But still, I hate staying past regular hours.

Dare I wait until Wednesday morning? I'd still be done by noon, shaving a couple hours off the usual time....

**********

Snow?

Snow was definitely NOT in the forecast.

**********

Panga came in from her morning Vole-patrol.

She let me know with some full-throated meows she wasn't happy with the white stuff.

**********

So far, with the new changes in shipping, I'm getting regular reorders at least a week later.

But I'm also not getting billed for direct shipping until a week later. I'll take that trade.
Especially since I appear to have finally paid off my useless Point of Sale system which was costing my 42.00 every week. That's almost enough to pay for the direct shipping.

**********

Unexpected bonus from the early shipping.

Tuesdays had gotten pretty boring. Now I can process this week's shipment, as well as make direct ship orders for Thurday and Friday. Makes for a fuller week.

**********

It's been a year or two since I settled on the current product mix.

I've got enough experience under my belt with both new books and boardgames, to feel comfortable making large orders.

I more or less ordered an entire quarter's worth of product this week, and I'll try to pay it back by one/third a month. If it doesn't happen, at least I gave myself a chance -- and Summer will eventually arrive.

But I almost don't have anything else I feel I NEED to order -- which is an enormous luxury. And a goal that I spent most of my career trying to reach.

(Well, I could probably use some stand ups -- I'm out of John Wayne and Chewbacca and Johnny Depp.)

**********

A ton of books.

I ordered a ton of books. Over 400.

I'm getting more and more comfortable that they will sell. I'm assembling a track record of books that have already sold. Once I identify a novel that people will buy, it's a simple matter of reordering that novel every time it leaves the store.

The trick continues to be; order favorites (Name of the Wind, Game of Thrones); classics, (think anything that would fit the Penguin imprint); cult (Vonnegut, Palahniuk, Bukowski, Kerouac); and quirky (Zombie Spaceship Wasteland, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter); and a smattering of best-sellers -- especially if connected to a recent movie or a subject that fits the store: Squirrel Seeks Chipmunk, The Sherlockian, Freedom.)

My biggest problem isn't really whether the books will sell or not. It's whether I have room for them, especially room to gives them any kind of decent display. (Art books only showing spine out are a hard sell obviously.)

I just keep trying to be creative in how I put them out. Necessity being the mother of invention.


Meanwhile, the store is now in the February billing period, and I have a clean slate with the budget.

I'm going to be making a massive boardgame order this week, as well. Basically, these are quarterly orders -- made toward the beginning of the quarter and then paid back during the next three months. Frontloading, if you will.

This takes faith -- in the economy, in my store, in the product, and in my own judgment. Paying off the debt at Christmas has really freed me up to take some chances -- that plus having adequate cash reserves.

Sales so far in the first half of this month have been pretty good, though I have to be careful about the usual second half slide. So far, I'm about 10% above my projection (what I budgeted for) and about 10% below last year (which was in the midst of a seven month increase in sales).

All I know is -- I'm pretty proud of the store right now.

"Let's go see a bad movie!"

My third week of getting the Sunday New York Times. Plowing through it much quicker, now.

Sometimes, when I'm confronted by a massive amount of information, I have to learn how to deal with it. And the N.Y.T.'s has the content of a full book, basically. So I'm learning what to ignore and what to skim and what to actually read.

**********

There is very little to say about the City of Bend's budget woes. (I told you so?)

If only they had all those millions they utilized on Juniper Ridge; if only they had charged sufficient rates while the town was actually growing; if only they hadn't taken on expenses they couldn't pay for (BAT). If only, if only....

**********

Linda and I went to see Season of the Witch yesterday. It was our -- "Let's go see a really bad movie!" moment. We are suckers for all things fantasy.

O.K. It was cheesy.

But I kind of enjoyed it, in a cheesy way. There is no way I would recommend it -- but if you had to see a bad movie, this a good bad movie to see.

The acting was O.K. , the story actually wasn't bad, the special effects were adequate.

It was the dialogue and character development that were rudimentary and uninspired. You have to wonder sometimes in movies like this if they didn't have a production meeting where someone said; "Hey, we could make this movie a whole lot better if we hired an average T.V. sitcom writer to spice up the dialogue!"

It was funny to see the audience for this movie -- I don't want to sound all elitist, but it was a pretty blue-collar, uneducated group, by appearance.

I guess they hadn't read the reviews.

Or -- maybe it was their "Let's go see a really bad movie!" moment.



We're going to have another "Let's go see a really bad movie" day, today. We're going to see The Tourist.

So I can stare at Angelina Jolie for a couple hours. (And Linda can stare at Johnny Depp for a couple hours...)

Don't quit.

Anyone catch the interview on "60 Minutes" with the successful Las Vegas gambler? I thought it was a hoot when he asserted that the crooks and swindlers in the gambling world were more honest than Wall Street.

But it also pointed out something that defies conventional wisdom -- that one can be a successful gambler at all.

It brought me back to that moment about 20 years ago when I realized that I needed to change the way I did business.

First, for context. This was after a seven year growth spurt. I had 4 stores, around 12 employees, pretty high sales.

But sports cards were collapsing.

My first response to that collapse was to lower prices to compete with the chainstores and fly-by-nights that suddenly popped up.

Secondly, the moment of epiphany: There was a PBS program at the time, usually aired around mid-afternoon, about small business. I wish I remembered the title of the show, because it had a big influence on me -- but I suppose the program would be dated by now.

Anyway, there were actually two moments of clear-sightedness. The first, was a epidsode where a young businessman was walking along the banks of a pond (I remember it being Walden Pond, but that seems doubtful) and reflecting on what had gone wrong with the business he had just closed.

And the thoughts he was saying out loud, were the same thoughts that were going through my head.

That scared me, it scared me enough to actually make some very big changes. That very afternoon, I went back to the store, and moved all the prices back to full retail, Suggest Retail Price, or where not applicable -- I moved everything to a 40 to 50% markup. Because that was what I needed to survive, and I figured I might as well give myself a chance.

The second program that had a huge influence on me was about a "successful" gambler. I remember thinking, "there's no such thing as a successful gambler." But what the guy was saying really had an impact on me.

Basically, he recounted how when he started out gambling as a young man, he had a number of contemporaries. But one by one, they fell away after running into trouble. But he kept going, and finally -- after many failures and setbacks, he finally learned how to do it on a consistent and reliable basis.

"Why quit," he asked. "When you've gone through all the hard work of learning through your failures?"

I took this to heart. Even though I lost a whole lot of money on the sport card boom and bust, and the comic book boom and bust, and the non-sport card and magic booms and busts, I still felt there was a way to play it -- to gamble, if you will.

My first shot came with pogs. I pretty much pitched a no hit ball game, there. Nearly flawless. (It was an unusual fad in that I could buy exactly as much material as I need, when I needed it. Usually the problem with a fad isn't SELLING the material, it's ACQUIRING the material.)

The second success was with Beanie Babies, followed by Pokemon. In both of these cases, I was able to "Time The Market", get in on the Golden Age, but get out before it became a disaster.
I mostly did this by not actually buying direct from the manufacturers, but through middle men. I paid slightly higher prices for the privilege of being able to get out and cut my losses at a time of my own choosing.

But it really doesn't matter how I did it. The point is, I learned from my mistakes and failures, and applied those lessons to the next situation. Instead of quitting altogether.

There hasn't been a fad over the last ten years that I could find a way to tap into. But that's all right. I'd much rather have solid if unspectacular sales on a day to day basis. If a fad came along that I thought I could profit from, I'd do it, but I don't mind if one doesn't come along. Manga and anime looked like it might go that direction, but technology short-circuited those possibilities. I probably broke even, over the long run. It isn't the fad cycle I'm concerned without nowadays, it's the technology curve.

To tie it back to the stock market; I do indeed think you can probably "time" the market, at least in the broad sense. I suspect the same lessons apply. Get in lightly, test the waters, leave yourself an escape clause, get out when the getting is good. Don't be greedy. Don't be foolish.

But don't quit altogether.

Business 101

I'm ambivalent about getting business advice from the "experts" up at Central Oregon Community College.

------(Thus this blog will be jam packed with "yes, buts"...."Yet(s)"...and "on the other hand(s).")----

Part of me never wants to spend another minute inside a classroom. I feel like I spent way too many hours in classrooms, basically getting very little out them. Instead, I'd go back to my own room, read the course material, and learn most of what I learned that way.

There were the occasional teachers and moments where a lightbulb lit up over my head, but it was relatively rare for all the many hours I spent listening. I'm a visual learner, big time. Audio goes in one ear and out the other.

On the other hand, my limited experience with the Small Business people up at C.O.C.C. was extremely useful. It was a one-on-one situation, which may explain it. But I not only got some simple formulas that I have used ever since, I was also helped in getting a loan to expand my business, something that probably never would have happened without their help.

They put me through my paces, making me develop a business plan. And best of all, they more or less validated my instincts ("You have a primitive sophistication," said my adviser) and encouraged me to go forward with my planning.

However, I think that in many cases, the advice and knowledge available is not completely applicable to a small Mom and Pop style retail. Like most business advice books, it's almost too much knowledge.

I have a similar ambivalent feeling about technology: I want to take the easier elements and use them, but discard most of the complexity. Most of possible uses of technology are overreaching for my little store. Too much time, money and effort spent on marginal improvements.

And no offense to the experts, but I've seen way too many small businesses come and go over the last 30 years to believe there is a single method of succeeding. I suspect that unless you already know what you're doing, you'll get at least as much bad advice as good advice.

Then again, I'm the guy who is always horrified by how little homework most people do when they are opening a new enterprise. When I wanted to be a writer, I read every book on writing I could get my hands on, I took adult classes in writing, and I joined a writer's group.

When I started my business, I read every book I could find on small business I could find, and joined the professional bulletin boards.

Like I said. Most of the time, I tend to think this type of advice is useless. It's probably most useful to those small business people who have already experienced enough ups and downs to recognize the value of the advice.