Saturday dis and dat.

I notice a lot of my fellow downtown Bend retailers are having 20% "Winter Sales."

Does that really work? I mean, 20% just doesn't seem like enough enticement for consumers used to deep discounts. At the same time, it would represent half of my profits.

I think having 50% sales on items you are actually clearing out -- make a tad bit more sense. At least you'd recoup your money on something you don't intend to carry. But even here, my theory in my store is, I'll sell everything eventually.

I prefer to offer incentives at the point of purchase. If a customer is undecided over two items, I'll make the offer -- "Buy both, and I'll give you 10% off." Or, "I'm totally overstocked on that item, so I'll give you 20% off."

Of course, you have to have people in the store for that to work...

**********

I know you're not supposed to do this -- I mean, I should buy it and forget it -- but the Barnes and Noble stock I bought one week ago has gone up 3.6%.

Of course, if you factor in the costs of buying -- and the no doubt equal costs of selling -- this ain't near enough, but still.....it's encouraging.

**********

Interesting that the Trono shooting has not been resolved -- and looks like it may never be resolved.

Apparently the husband vouching for the wife isn't enough -- which means there is doubt in the minds of the investigators. Simply not prosecuting will leave a cloud over the entire affair.

Which sounds like where it will probably remain.

A big gray cloud of doubt.

**********

Customer shows his girlfriend the Walking Dead books. "This is a great new show on T.V."

"Yeah," I say, "and the graphic novels are just as good."

"I know. I immediately download them on my I-Pad."

"Well.....screw you."

They laugh uncertainly.

"Hey, support your local retailer, " I say. "You'll miss us when we're gone."

Again, they laugh. They're not certain if I'm kidding or not.

I'm not certain if I'm kidding or not.

**********

Got my Tuesday Reorder of comics today. Totally thought they were stuck in the snows of the Memphis shipping area.

"You mean the deep 1" snows of Memphis?" my UPS driver asks.

*********

Woman came in with a headpiece --"Do you walk down the street talking into that?"

"Yeah, and you should see some of the reactions."

"Really? I was hoping I could walk down the street crazy talking to myself and no one would notice....."

**********

We are selling millions of dollars -- for free!

Stay with me as I try to figure this out.

I think I kind of know what's happening with all the "Free" stuff. The online model that says, "We'll give it to you free, because we know we'll catch you on something else later on down the line." (They may not yet know what that "something" will be, but they seem certain it will happen.)

I think it's much like what happens when you sell stuff super cheap.

I know, obvious. But bear with me.

I'll try to use a specific example. Again, as I often do, I turn to sports cards. (I made every mistake in the book with sports cards...)

When sports cards were selling like crazy, I kept the prices probably lower than I could have, because I reasoned that it would build the market and possibly keep away competition. And that seemed to work for awhile.

I sold and sold and sold cards, opened four stores, and really looked to the sky for my limits.

And then the whole market plateaued and then -- Wily Coyote like --dove off a cliff. It took all my earning with them. The competition I had so hoped to avoid came in with a vengeance.

And yet -- for the average consumer -- prices got even cheaper.

Others seemed to take my model and go even further with it -- the mass market using cards as a loss leader, and the smaller 'sprung-up-over-night' shops seeming to play the "We sell everything for a loss, but make up for it with volume" game.

Selling super cheap does indeed generate a whole lot of activity -- and free does even better.

And yet, and yet.....

Eventually, I got to the point where I wanted to make money on what I sold. I wanted a real markup, and decent profit, and I wanted to work a sane amount to get it.

So my market shrank dramatically, while most of my customers went elsewhere. I could no longer even make a small profit, much less the decent profit I'd been making when the market was raging.

Really, there was no choice. I couldn't have played the 'give-it-away' game even if I wanted. I kept thinking the customer would come back, that the other guys couldn't keep selling for nothing, and I went deep in debt.

What I'm trying to say, I guess, is that this cheap strategy actually seems to work -- for a fairly long period of time. On a steep upward curve in sales, you may actually turn a regular profit, and a semi-steep curve in sales, you may turn a small profit, and on a slight upward curve, you may break even. Of course, you're working twice as hard, gambling twice the money, spending all kinds of your energy and space and all those hard-to-measure costs pursuing the market.

So the next danger is burnout. Which is a very real danger to a small business.

Afterword, postmortem, I figured I'd probably churned through literally millions of dollars worth of cards -- with nothing but debts to show for it. I was tired and upset and I had to reinvent the store from scratch.

My advice to new small business owners is -- don't even go there. Start out with a reasonable markup and stick with it. If your business isn't viable, at least you'll find out right away.
If, by some happenstance, you get a chance to charge a "what the market will bear" price, by all means do it. Believe me, the day will soon come when you can't even charge a decent markup and you'll be glad you did.

So, in the end, I guess I would encourage small business not to mistake activity, (sales and turnover), -- for substantial gains, ( profits and a livable life-style.)

Like I said, I know this seems utterly obvious. But sometimes, I think it helps to illustrate with a specific example.

How can something so obvious happen so often? Because the costs are hidden. Like I said, as long as the market continues upward, you can get away with it. But behind the scenes, you might be experiencing slow bleeding. Hidden by unsaleable inventory, for instance -- or just the amount of stress and risk you are taking in pursuit of sales. It's like sprinting at the beginning of
marathon, you may look like you're really moving ahead of your competitors -- but the hidden costs will catch up to you later.

Universal rules....

I was running late for work today, so of course I hit the beginnings of every red light, and found a totally packed parking garage and had to park on the upper floors.

Is there some universal rule here? The more you're in a hurry, the more roadblocks you'll run into?

**********

I always take a break from ordering in the two weeks after the first of the year. This year, I got winnowed down on the boardgames to an uncomfortable degree. Sold out of: Settlers of Catan, Ticket to Ride, Dominion (Base), Settler of America, Small World.

Next week I'm going to make a massive order --- and try not to run out again for the rest of the year.

**********

How many of you would be offended if I monetized this stupid blog? I'm torn. I mean, if it actually amounts to money, I'd be even stupider not to do it, but I hate to clutter up the blog for a few bucks.

Anyone know what kind of numbers you have to do? Say, per hundred of visits? Anyone?

**********

I mean, this blog has gotten more important to me over the last four years, instead of less...

I'm starting to dream blog entries -- and everything, every little thing, is starting to turn into blog fodder, which worries me because how much is grist and how much is meat? Or does it matter? Cyberspace is free.

And even if I did monetize this thing, I'd probably still not do any promoting of it. That's where the danger lies, I believe.

**********

A guy in the store, who was waiting at the IRS office for a ride. "IRS office? We have one of those downtown?"

"Yeah, on the third floor of the building down from the Phoenix Inn, with a guard and everything."

"A guard? Really?"

"Yeah, a glass enclosure -- and there isn't a sign on the building...."

"Go figure...."

**********

Even watching clips of The Big Leibowski on "The Dude Abides" American Masters -- had me rolling on the floor. I've GOT to rent that movie again.

**********

Mama, don't take my kodachrome (away.)

Cam Newton to turn pro?

I thought he already was...

**********

Can't we just ignore Her Royal Pettiness Sarah now?

**********

Central Oregon economic forecaster asks for more money?

Sure...but first, can't we get a refund for all the forecasts from 2007?

**********

Green Hornet?

Apparently we have entered that phase in the cycle of superhero movies, where campiness reigns.

I worry that Thor and Captain America are just going to look -- Silly.

**********

The state "Transportation rules" hinders economic development in Central Oregon?

Don't you have to have development before it can be hindered?

**********

A Final Salute.

KODACHROME. Paul Simon

When I think back
On all the crap I learned in high school
It's a wonder
I can think at all
And though my lack of education
Hasn't hurt me none
I can read the writing on the wall

Kodachrome
You give us those nice bright colors
You give us the greens of summers
Makes you think all the world's a sunny day, oh yeah!
I got a Nikon camera
I love to take a photograph
So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away

If you took all the girls I knew
When I was single
And brought them all together for one night
I know they'd never match
My sweet imagination
And everything looks worse in black and white

Kodachrome
You give us those nice bright colors
You give us the greens of summers
Makes you think all the world's a sunny day, oh yeah!
I got a Nikon camera
I love to take a photograph
So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away

Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away

Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away

Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away

Mama, don't take my Kodachrome
Mama, don't take my Kodachrome
Mama, don't take my Kodachrome (away)

Mama, don't take my Kodachrome
Mama, don't take my Kodachrome
Mama, don't take my Kodachrome (away)

Mama, don't take my Kodachrome
(Leave your boy so far from home)
Mama, don't take my Kodachrome (away)

"Cult of Personality."

I was reading another local blog, who talked about Allyson's Kitchen in Bend as having been based on a "cult of personality"(Allyson herself.) It all fell apart, this writer says, when Allyson left.

Well, I would submit that a business that is built on a "cult of personality" is no business at all: it is a C of P. Churches, classrooms, business, and other organizations -- all have this phenomenon occur, but unfortunately, it is rarely transferable to another personality, a 'lesser' personality, if you will.

Sure, you have to have a fairly strong personality to start, to persevere and to succeed. But if you can't eventually make the store itself the focus, it will all fall apart it you're not there for any reason.


It also kind of brought to mind how most "hobby" store like mine start -- even more than most businesses, comic or card or game or book stores are brought to life by people who love the subject.

In the comic, game and card business, most of these start-ups don't have a whole lot a capital. They start off as "scroungers". Nothing wrong with this, I started off that way myself.

But eventually, you need to grow out of this phase -- to become "professional", if you will. What I notice is, that even successful 'scrounger" businesses very rarely move up that that next level. It's still based on that one guy, wheeling and dealing.

I think I've moved a little past that, but certainly not all the way. I wouldn't call it scrounging, anymore. I'd call it smart buying and stocking.

But even this isn't all that transferable -- except if I get a chance to train the next person, and if the next person is willing to actually listen.

I think a store should purposely strive to become focused on the inventory, the layout, the location, all the objective and measurable standards. Personality comes and goes, and popularity comes and goes, and energy levels and interests come and go.

The store itself, done right. should be able to stand on it's own, at least with a adequate amount of work and effort, and yes -- personality.

Blogmass

Geez, I didn't even get a chance to comment on Ted Williams before he crashed and burned. What I wanted to say was, "A lifetime of woe will not be washed away by 9 minutes of fame..."

**********

Comic distributor Diamond has cut off shipments to Borders. At one point, Borders sold near 1/3rd of all manga books in the country. Hopefully, this won't hurt the publishers or Diamond too badly.

After all, these are MY publishers and distributor....

**********

Housing prices in Bend have now dropped to a 5.5 year low. Thus outlasting my advice to people a few years ago to "Wait a couple of years before buying a house."

Hey, these prices could still go down significantly. Forget the rest of the country. Focus. This is Bend.

**********

Interesting thing about the Stress Index rankings to me, is that Deschutes County, despite having a lower unemployment rate than Crook County, has nearly double the number of foreclosures, and more bankruptcies.

I suspect that Bendites were more likely to overextend.

**********

This is painful to say, but it's probably unfair for us to expect Rep. Gifford's to magically revert to what she once was. Like I said, The Damage Done. This isn't a T.V. movie.

Today comes news that only 10% of people even survive such a wound. And that she opened an "eye" not "eyes" with all that signifies....

**********

I KNEW I didn't want them sticking that thing into me!

"St. Charles: Colonoscope Not Fully Sanitized." KTVZ, 1/12/11.

**********

Scary pathetic.

In the wake of the latest shootings, comes news that sales of Glock handguns have spiked upward.

Either because we Americans are thinking what a fine machine it is.

Or because we're so uninformed as to believe that Congress is going to immediately outlaw them.

Either way,

we're pathetic.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is watching the high school pep rally in Arizona (Go Team America! -- and there's the bossy mean Sarah Palin shoving her way to the front and whining, "Why are you guys picking on me?") and the world is thinking, these guys have the biggest army in the world by orders of magnitude.

And they are thinking, be afraid. Very afraid.

At worst, (and I doubt this will happen), the powers that be might restrict us to shooting into crowds with a 13 round Glock, instead of 31. Your average American citizen of 1776 (you know, since we're being strict constructionists -- white, male landowners) would be horrified that we might take away his 31 fully primed and loaded flintlocks. (Which by all accounts were totally inaccurate and obscured the battlefield with smoke after the first few rounds...)

The only country with more guns per citizen than us is Yemen, with 60 guns per 100, instead our 90 guns per 100. (Somehow those poor Afgans get by with less guns...)

Why the next thing you know, they'll try to take away our right to our own personal atomic bombs. (How would we ever get that gopher in the backyard?) Because there's no chance, you know, that any wacko citizen would ever use that power of overkill.

But don't worry, it won't happen. Why it would be the Prohibition all over again!

Only with more guns.

There's no chance that we'll ever have a War On Guns, because, you know, the War on Drugs and Poverty and Terrorism worked out so well....

We're pathetic.

Scary pathetic.

Tuesday comics.

Got my first shipment of Tuesday comics yesterday. It was tiny. I set it aside until 6:00 PM, then laid them out and put them on subscription shelves, taking a chance that no regulars would come in, and girding my loins to turn them down if they noticed the comics.

Apparently, a number of stores in the U.S. got "secret shoppers" in; we're paying $4.00 a week for this.

Anyway, no one came in. I kept my open signs on, because over half my business these day is non-comic related, and it doesn't make sense to turn down possible business throughout the rest of my store.

It took me all of half an hour. (Clearly, a normal order would take at least twice this long, if not longer.) This morning, all I have to do is sort the stack of comics for the shelves, and put them out for sale.

It was a bit of an experiment -- I think, because Tuesdays are so damn slow, I can probably get comics in some kind of order before 6:00, then try to put as many comics away as I can by 6:30, and then do what's left in the morning.

I had writer's group at 7:00 last night, as I do every second and fourth Tuesday of the month (All writers welcome.) A genial group of folk, and a fun subject, even if the only thing I'm writing these days is this blog.

The actual Comic Selling Day changes aren't really that much. Tuesday shipment helps if there is a delay -- weather, holidays -- getting comics out on Wednesday anyway. But I really don't want to spend hours at the store at night; so, like I said, I'll do some for the first half hour and do the rest on Wednesday morning (without waiting for UPS.)

Meanwhile, everything else about the change is very confusing. I wrote the following message on the Comic Retailers Bulletin Board:

I'm trying to wrap my brain around all the ramifications of this change.

I'd already figured that regular reorders were going to take from 15 to 20 days to show up, instead of 10 to 15 days, so I was going to go back to direct reorders, damn the shipping costs.

Then today's invoice arriving on Tuesday, which means I could make a direct ship reorder today, and not get billed until the Wednesday after next.

Then I look at this invoice, and I have a direct ship charge --which almost has to be the one I made on Sunday, but line items aren't included in the invoice. And the postage is 81.00!

At the same time I'm assuming I'll get the Sunday order sometime later this week. (Been told it didn't ship Monday, and it's looking a little doubtful today...)

And most confusing to me, I thought I'd made a 500.00 direct ship reorder, but the total on the invoice was 325.00. (I suppose this could be my mistake.) Like I said, I haven't made a direct ship order before this since before Christmas and I've already been charged for those.....

This is going to take some getting used to. I mean I like it, but it's more of a change than I expected.

Duncan McGeary
Pegasus Books of Bend.

Turns out, the 'direct' shipment was actually the Scott Pilgrim consignment program, that they mislabeled. I never would have figured this out, but one of the other retailers did, once again proving the worth of communicating with your peers. (Doesn't explain the huge shipping fee, though...not looking forward to hammering this out with my rep.)

Anyway, we're having some change pains. Nothing for it.

"Live for the day."

I dreamed I owned a bar whose motto it was: "Live for the day."

So is this?

LIVE for the day.

Live FOR the day.

Live for THE day.

or Live for the DAY.

????

Boy, do I overthink things.


But really, this fits right into what I've been thinking about lately.

I woke up this morning to two headlines in the Bulletin: "Kelly's 'Win the Day' takes Oregon far..." and (subtitle) "How much should you set aside?"

The last article I read before going to bed last night, was about studies in delayed gratification.

My last blog was really about: Did the residents of Bend get ahead of themselves and buy too big of houses, spend too much of their 'Boom' money, and otherwise not plan far enough ahead?

But mostly, I'm at the age (along with Linda), where I'm having to make decisions that will affect the rest of my life. How long do I work? How much do I set aside in these last working years? Should we live more today, instead of waiting?

My tendency is to put everything off for a better day. But my observation of life is -- unexpected things happen, and that better day may never arrive.

It comes down to a choice of; early retirement but not much more than 'get by' money; or later retirement and having some 'play and travel' money.

Or...try to do both, in a way. Keep a working store, but take more time off.

Or some combination thereof.

For the time being, I'll be working through at least one more lease, and probably two more. (Yes, I time my working life around "Leases." Small business.....what can you do?)

As much as I like traveling around with Linda, I also know I have a tendency to get isolated if I don't have some place to meet people on a regular basis. (Frankly, until recently, I thought I probably never retire -- but circumstances have changed enough that I have some options.)

So it's all pretty much up in the air.

Are we in the money?

"WEALTHY TREATED THEMSELVES DURING THE HOLIDAYS. " USA TODAY, 1/11/11.


"The rich treated themselves like royalty this holiday season. That spun the holidays into gold for Tiffany and other high-end retailers.

Wealthier shoppers traded up to more expensive gold and diamond jewelry from silver charms at Tiffany. At Saks and Neiman Marcus designer clothing and handbags were the hot holiday items.

The strong reports are a big improvement from six months ago, when wealthy Americans got spooked by a stock market slide and cut back spending. It shows affluent shoppers are trading back up to higher-status brands as the stock market bounces back. The rich in booming Asian economies, especially, are ramping up spending..."

This last year has been a bit of test for Bend, Oregon.

If it's true that we have a large population of well-off people in the area, they made a whole lot of money in the stock markets last year. Spending money.

If, on the other hand, most of the "well-off" people in the area are more in the nature of aspirational -- living the high life without really having the resources -- well, they got hammered last year.

The irony being that I'm not sure either group are among my baseline customers...

But the rest of downtown, I would think, it would very much describe their customer base.

Hibernation

Best thing a small business located halfway between the High Desert and the Cascade Mountains can do between Jan. 1 and July 1, is go into hibernation.

No way around it. Bend is seasonal. It's the Faustian bargain we made with the tourism industry. But, hey. We could be subsisting on government checks, like Burns or John Day. And not that we had a whole lot of choice. We can dangle Juniper Ridge in front of outside industry all we want, but it was always going to be an uphill task to get industry to move here, and in a recession, I suspect all but impossible.

We've got our guestroom all fixed up -- now we're just waiting for guests.


Are you guys going to let me get away with such sweeping statements? I welcome disagreement, I want to get some discussion going.


My feeling is that we just have to grin and bear it. This is going to take time, here in Bend, much longer than just about anywhere else. Too many houses, too few jobs.

For many businesses in Bend, the Boom was the "norm." If a business opened anytime between 1995 and 2008, the Boom was the majority of their existence. The years between 2002 and 2008 would seem the proper level, the years before that maybe would seem 'start-up' levels, and the years after would seem to be an unfortunate recession.

The "norm" to me would be more like the 1990's. Nice growth, but still a struggle. Not so bad as the 80's, not so great as the 00's.

So when the 00's came along and started booming, I figured it for a lucky streak, tried to take as much advantage of the extra boost as possible, but never expected it to continue. I expected to end at any time.

And when it ended, I figured -- if we were lucky -- we'd settle back into the 1990's rate of growth.

So far, it's been more like the 80's. (As bad as the Great Recession is, I'll submit that the mid-80's were much much worse for most of Bend, especially downtown Bend.)

The 90's level of business looks like UP to me.

I'm talking percents of drops and increases, here. Even now, my overall level of business is much higher than most of the 90's. (But, so too, are my costs.)


On the more immediate front, despite having a good December, I'm expecting this next six months to be the slowest of the recession yet.

Sept., Oct., and Nov. were all down, and a good rule of thumb for me is to expect Jan. and Feb. to be worse, and April, May to be not much better.

I did average business the first 8 days of the month, but the last two days have been ultra slow, and I'm really not expecting much the rest of the week. Trouble with doing average, is that slow days can drag down the average, and we need the occasional really good day to bring it back up.
That's the part we're missing.


The problem is compounded by the paltry offering from DC and Marvel, In Their Infinite Wisdom, Glory Be, the Masters of My Fate.

While I like the lowering of prices, it's going to hurt in the short run. And not releasing much is only going to make it tougher.

Then again, I'm well prepared. That's the whole trick. Be ready for it.

You call that a snowstorm?

Every picture I've seen of the "blizzard" in the south looks like a light feather dusting of snow. You know, what a good hard frost looks like on the high desert.

Wussies.

**********

Meanwhile, my backyard is still more than half covered with snow. This explains why my garden takes so long to bloom each spring/summer.

I don't know how it explains it, it just does.

**********

Oh, my god. I hate to say it, because I think the right wing's rhetoric has been out of hand. But all they have to do is show that mug shot of the shooter.

Crazy as a bedbug. Fruity as a fruitcake. Wacko. Batshit nuts. (I'll refrain from using my thesaurus.) Looney Tunes. Barmy. Bats in the belfrey. Bonkers.

One picture says a thousand words.

**********

I'm going to watch the Ducks game tonight with curiosity instead of with boosterism.

I graduated from the U of O, but just to get my degree. Don't think I ever identified with the place that much. It was just a place I went to school....

You know what? I don't think I even like the U of O....

I've been to a couple of Duck games. So, I guess I'll be rooting for them,....



Ah hell, who am I kidding?

GO DUCKS!

I was trying to save myself from that disappointing feeling of having the team I root for getting crushed. (Damn you, Drexler, Porter, Duckworth, Kersey and Williams!)

But....maybe....just maybe....Ducks will be #1.

If I haven't just cursed them.

Nah, they're doomed.

See the roller coaster ride? -- and the game hasn't even started. Maybe I should just skip the game. I don't really care.........

Yeah, right.

GO DUCKS!!!

**********

It took me an entire week to finish off the New York Times Sunday edition; I'm determined to read or at the very least browse, the whole damn thing. It gives me a window to a new world (fashion and glamour and Broadway and all that), as well as more in-depth stories on subjects I'm interested in.

But damn, it's a lot of information. It's like reading a book -- the number of words.

I finished off the New York Times Magazine yesterday, after the new paper arrived (with it the new edition of the mag), and I've still got the Book Review (the whole reason I subscribed) yet to read.

We had our two boys home last weekend, so that probably explains my tardiness.


It also occurs to me, as I read all these book reviews, that I read them instead of the actual book, mostly. And to wonder if book reviews may actually tamp down actual sales. Probably not. If I was truly interested in a subject -- and a review made me notice -- I'd be more likely to buy the book.

I've also thought of subscribing to The New Yorker or Atlantic Monthly -- but, then I'd never have time to actually do anything.

***********

Interesting media reactions.

Do you ever get the sense that the media as a whole is feeling it's way on a story? How big is this? What does it mean? Should we play it up or play it down?

I got the impression yesterday, that much of media was looking for signs from the other media about how big the Gifford's assassination attempt really was....

....and that the public's interest drove this story to get bigger and bigger.

These are impressions, but here goes:

I first got wind of this with a News Alert on KTVZ. I didn't know what to make of it at first; perhaps it was domestic violence. Perhaps it was a disgruntled employee.

What caught my attention next was the number of wounded. This was starting to look like a big deal.

Nothing on the USA Today for nearly an hour, but Huffington Post was on it; with what limited knowledge they had. And what limited knowledge they had was often mistaken; as in announcing that she had died.

But at some point, I went upstairs and turned on the cable news. Sure enough, MSNBC and CNN were all over it. Fox seemed strangely reticent -- with only one of their many news outlets covering it; and they had kind of strange 'terrorist' slant; as if this didn't have anything to do with American politics.

In fact, I got the impression throughout that Fox was reluctant to even follow the story, and was tiptoeing around many of the obvious ramifications. However, I can only watch so much Fox at a time, so I could be wrong about this.

MSNBC was the opposite, jumping to conclusions -- if you will -- that I think mostly turned out to be correct. They brought in the big guns -- The Oberdofferman -- interviewing Eugene Robinson, and so on.

I turned off the T.V. when they started to repeat themselves, and when I realized they were contradicting themselves.

But I came away with two impressions: one, that the Washington politicians were truly shocked and alarmed from both sides of the political spectrum. And, two, that the mall where the tragedy occurred looked liked "Anywhere USA." It could have been Bend -- it looked very very familiar..

Back to the internet, and KTVZ had a whole bunch of stories, so did Huff Post, and Salon and Slate were starting to enter the fray. The question of the 'political climate' started coming up, not only on the liberal sites, but also on most of the lamestream -- I'm sorry, mainstream media -- (who will ever take Sarah Palin seriously again, after this, except the lunatic fringe?)

Well -- the lunatic fringe is alive and well -- if you take the comments on KTVZ as any indication. Later in the day, most if not all the comments had disappeared, and I suspect that Barney chose the better part of valor and just stopped publishing them.

Over on the Big Picture blog, there was is a huge, nearly 300 comment reaction to -- what was to me, a common sense blog of, "can't we get along without violent talk?" The focus was on Sarah Palin and her irresponsible "crosshairs" map. What was interesting was that the moderator's announcement that he had gotten hundreds of inappropriate remarks that he didn't publish.

Finally, we come to the newspapers. The Bulletin has been a bit odd about this. I suspect they might have been just about the only newspaper in America that chose not to put the story on the front page. They had a bit of an excuse in Duck Mania, but -- really, isn't that rather provincial of us?

They have a small story in the front page today -- about heightened security for politicians, which seems a side issue to me.

I dare say, it seems like the more conservative the media, the more they downplayed it. The more liberal, the more they explored all the ramifications (because, frankly, I don't think it reflects well on the political rhetoric of the right.)

This is one of those times when the more mainstream media gave a better middle of the road indication of the importance of a story -- and they made it a very big story indeed.

Tangled, but not blue.

I've taken to liking sitting through the credits at the end of good movies. Somehow, it lets the movie settle in.

I told Linda that, and she said, "Yeah. And you're the information guy."

"Oh, right. That too."

It's true. I like the little bits of info I can glean. Like I sat through the end credits of TANGLED, today, and at the very very end there was an acknowledgment of "The Baby Chameleons." I caught the names Sticky, and I think Icky, and there were three or four others. I like the image of a bunch of baby chameleons running around the feet of in the animators.

Disney (indeed, most animators, especially Pixar) just seems to get better and better at animation. Heart and wit and adventure. Best romantic comedy of the year.

I was caught unawares that it was a musical, and I kept thinking how this would make a great stage play.

Grownups who don't go to animation, are really missing the best movies of the year, sometimes...

Keep it simple, stupid.

Reading the story in the Bulletin about Wildwood Banjo's just made me want to remind all current and especially future small business owners of America -- that it is AT LEAST as important to be happy in your job as it is to make money.

There are a few ambitious cusses out there who want and need to expand -- and are successful and happy with the results.

But I'm telling you, that's the rarer example. Most of us want to make a living and enjoy our business, and those two goals don't always go together.

It's a delicate balance -- being hardworking and ambitious enough to earn money, but not burn yourself out.

From what I see, just as many business owner burn out from the stress as close because of a lack of funds. Or, more likely, are more willing the close because it isn't fun anymore.

It seems to be built into the genetic code of small business owners to get bigger and fancier and offer more and more services, and extend hours, and lower prices and sell more, and have clubs and memberships and special events, and....it goes on and on. There are no end of ways to burn yourself out.

Keep it simple.

Keep it sustainable. (Anything that you start, you may have to keep on doing even when you don't want to.)

Little bits add up.

Remember what you started out to do, and what you wanted to sell. Success doesn't mean go crazy. Sometimes you should be happy and satisfied with the success you have and -- counter intuitive as it may sound -- NOT build on it.

You've all heard of the Peter Principle -- people are promoted in their jobs to their level of incompetence.

Well, there is a similar principle in small business. Small businesses expand into their level of incompetence.

I had four stores, and I thought I could play "Lord of the Manor" and just check in every few days and say, "Hey, how much money did we make today?"

Of course, that isn't the way it works. Each store has to be worked equally hard as the single store was worked -- only most employees don't want to work that hard (as hard as the owner) nor can you afford to pay them enough to work that hard.

That's why most big business work more in the "You're a cog in the wheel" form of employment. Plug in the next minimum wage employee, make it simple, and live off the cheap prices and volume. (Never mind efficiency and service and all those good things.)

Just saying -- no one really seem to point this out. America's ethic is to get bigger and work harder and put on the harness and never take it off.

But a truly sustainable business needs to make not only money, but good will and harmony.

Sunday -- isms.

See, now I've already had some utility from the N.Y.T.'s Sunday paper. Got the Bulletin this morning, and the front page had nothing on the Gifford's assassination attempt. Hah! Small town paper.

I open the N.Y.T.'s and nothing on the front page about Gifford. Hmmm.

Actually, now that I think about it, the N.Y.T.'s was probably published way before yesterday's events -- so it doesn't quite let the Bulletin off for it's strange decision. Or , rather, it's Duckiness.


Meanwhile, the three name assassin motif seems to have sprung up again.


I kept wincing at all the "optimistic" recovery words -- this was a shot to the head. There is a term that is used: The Damage Done. No way around that. This ain't no T.V. show.


I'll stray this much into politics -- I don't care if it turns out that the 'cross-hairs' map had anything to do with this violence -- I still think it was a stupid and irresponsible thing for Sarah Palin to have done. (And no, pointing out other examples by both the left and the right STILL does not absolve her from her of this really dumb thing...)

**********

Linda's got my cold. Kind of a strange delay there-- I got it on Christmas night, and was over it 7 days later. She got it on the 7th. She stayed home from church.

**********

I finally logged into the Bend Economy Board, because they had a new nutcase who calls himself TomL. who I was just itching to answer. The moderator shut him down, though, so it isn't necessary.

Still, I find it fascinating that someone from outside would be so forceful in telling Bendites how to be. Kind of like wandering into someone else's house and telling them how to raise their children...

**********

I'm reading up a storm. I'm taking my own advice and buying the books -- even new hardcover -- I want, instead of waiting sometimes forever for them to show up used. So I'm reading nothing but good books, instead of semi-good book placeholders. And just zipping through them.

I do get to buy them for 40% off, however. And I can sell them for about 1/3rd price later as used.

**********

Got to run to the store, drop off books and straighten up the store, and grab the order lists, like I do every Sunday. I love the quiet time in the morning.

That tears it.

That tears it. So sad.

A crystallizing moment, if ever there was one.

Ramp down the hate talk, folks.

Please.

(Turn on the news...)

Downtown Comings and Goings.

I thought I'd go ahead and print the list again, though technically nothing has changed.

A couple of restaurants have come to fruition that were only in the winds. I've changed the 'Disco Bistro' entry to "Gatsby's" and updated.

I also wanted to mention that Boken has opened, which I listed way back in November.



NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(Fall, 2008 or so.)

Don't hold your breath.

CNNMoney has an article on Moody's Analytic's saying that home prices in the boom towns won't "recover" until "at least" the 2030's and beyond.

Some familiar names in the top ten.

Naples, Fl is #1.; 2038.

Bend was linked with Naples more than once over the last decade. We were duking it out for the biggest price increases -- and then, the biggest declines.

So I was surprised Bend wasn't on the list of the top ten. I tried to find a list beyond the top ten, but couldn't. I know it must exist, because they mention Las Vegas not recovering until 2032, and it wasn't on the list (which #10, Modesto, Ca., came in at 2034.)

Maybe someone with better webfu than I could find the full list, and see where Bend stands?

Maybe it doesn't matter -- as the article says:

"Nationally, we expect U.S. [home prices] to recover by 2021," said Chen.

That only sounds like a long way off because it is."

You'll love this....

O.K.

I know regular readers of this blog will appreciate the irony of this.

I just invested in Barnes and Noble stock.

I did this because of my instincts as a retailer. I think they have a synergistic thing going, what with the Nook and books and toys and games. Meanwhile, their competitor, Borders, is all but toast.

What's going to happen, I think, is the overall prevailing thinking will be that bookstores are dinosaurs. And yet, in the short run, their sales are going to be good, which will eventually break down the resistance to their stock; either because people think that books have a chance, or -- almost in reverse -- because they think Nook is going to take over the world.

It's almost a no lose situation -- a classic hedge. (Just using the words "no lose" gives me the willies and probably ought to talk me out of doing this; but I don't really believe it's a "no lose". In fact, I know it's a gamble.)

In the short run, I think they are going to have a really impressive outcome.

In the long run, I'd probably be tempted to reverse course and start to 'short' them.

I can afford to do this, this once. I'm curious about whether my instincts are right. The only other time I was tempted to invest in a stock was in Marvel -- as they were emerging from bankruptcy and there were hints of a "Spider-man" movie. The upside was so huge.

But, I had no money, and I had read this investment advice which said, "Don't invest in any businesses that are in the same business as you." Because you'd get a double whammy.
Which made sense.

But later, I realized -- what business do I actually know anything about? Yep, comics and books and games and toys. Everything thing else, I'm an outsider taking the advice of insiders.

In a way, I'm applying what I've learned in my bookstore to a different playing field. When I've had these sorts of ideas in the past, I've been right more often than wrong. Sometimes I'm a little too ahead of the game -- or I make some false starts -- but eventually that all comes back and gives me plenty of time to prepare for the tipping point.

Linda let me do this -- "I'm curious, too," she said.

The stock may go down, it may go up. But I'm betting --- gambling, let's face it -- that at some point in the near future, within a couple years, they'll have a big run up. I invested what I could afford to lose.

We'll see. Adds a bit of spice to life, you know?