"Going to the mattresses..."

"Bank of the Cascades Tapped Fed Program for 7 Loans." Bulletin, 12/4/10.

I love this line: "For community banks like the Bank of the Cascades, however, borrowing short term...had no connection to the financial crisis."

"...no connection to the financial crisis." Yeah, right.

"Look, officer, so I shot my husband 7 times, but I really wasn't trying to kill him...."

Really, do they expect us to believe this stuff?

********

I've been wanting to say this for awhile, but never got around to it.

Some measures of business activity are just not as meaningful as they try to make it. "Visits" is the biggest. Sure, for motels and airlines, visits are all important. But for the rest of us retail, maybe not so much.

One example. I had 145 people in on Black Friday. That's a lot of people for my small store. As many or more people than I had during the boom days.

My sales about the same as last year. Nothing special.

Just saying....

**********

Speaking of Bank of the Cascades. The 7 loans they took out really point out something that I've been meaning to mention.

I talk about "willpower" being an important element in starting, growing, and succeeding in business. It may sound strange to apply this to something as organizational as a bank, but I really feel like I was detecting a core group of management and investors who were willing to "go to the mattresses" to keep Bank of the Cascades alive.

I guess you gotta give them credit for that.

Books are Quaint.

I had a father in who was looking for exactly my specialty; Young adult classics. We ran through Jack London, and Mark Twain, and many others, and he always had the same two responses to all my suggestions:

"My son has read that."

"My son hasn't read that, so probably wouldn't be interested."

????

**********

Does the weatherman ever get tired of being wrong?

**********

I got sort of a glimmer of how the younger generation views books.

Don't laugh.

I think they think books are kind of quaint. Oldish. Dad and Mom's thing.

I was trying to think of an equivalent from when I was younger, and the only thing I could come up with was models. Models were just fading out as I was growing up -- I made some Big Daddy Roth cars and such, Rat Fink, but mostly it was beginning to fade. Westerns? I don't know, something that just sort of recedes.

When I think of thriving art forms that become hot house flowers, I always think of Opera. So comics and books might become Opera -- you go to Portland or an even bigger city for the sporadic performances. Or Jazz, you have to seek them out in small setting among true believers.

Getting Facebook opened me up to some conversations with 20-Somethings that seemed to spill over into myriad techish things.

I had a sense of what I've called Techishness....Irritation with the sheer volume and my lack of ease with technology and the younger crowds natural immersion into that world. Books are far down the list of media they care about.

Maybe books ARE doomed.

I'm toward the beginning of the Baby Boomers, so there are about 15 years of old fashioned book readers behind me, so I think I can play this out to the end of my career.

Personally, I don't think e-books have had that much impact on the bottomline, yet. I think they will have a HUGE effect, eventually. I read about bookstores going out of business on Shelf Awareness almost every day, and most of them mention that they are quitting because of the paradigm shift, the new technology.

But I think that just a way of saying, "We didn't fail. Who can fight the advent of the new tech? (The Car, (buggies) T.V, (movies) The Internet, (newspapers, etc. etc.) It's pretty handy cover.

I wonder if the old buggy whip makers used to look longingly at their favorite horses, and say, "Gosh, people are really going to miss the liveliness and beauty of the real animals."

When a market isn't a market.

"Market hits zoning snag." Bulletin, 12/3/10.

"The people in charge of Bend Indoor Markets, where locals peddle...products do not plan to cooperate with the city in solving a zoning problem at the 2 month old market.

The building...is in an area zoned light industrial, which prohibits uses that are primarily retail."

"But property owners see the issue differently."

"This does not look look like retail," said (the owner).



Err.....I think maybe he doesn't understand the word: "Market."


*****

Monty Python.

A customer enters a pet shop.

Customer: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.

O: We're closin' for lunch.

C: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

O: Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

C: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!

O: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.

C: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

O: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!

C: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.

O: Nononono, no, no! 'E's resting!

C: All right then, if he's restin', I'll wake him up!

(shouting at the cage)

'Ello, Mister Polly Parrot! I've got a lovely fresh cuttle fish for you if you show...(owner hits the cage)

O: There, he moved!

C: No, he didn't, that was you hitting the cage!

O: I never!!

C: Yes, you did!

Looking for a Potboiler?

A guy comes in looking for a good book. "What do you recommend?"

"Who do you like?"

"Oh, Cussler, and DeMille, and W.E.B. Griffin..."

"Potboilers," I say.

"What's that?"

"It's a term for a certain kind of book. Let's Google it.............................Oh............By the way, have you read Wilbur Smith?"

Notice the subtle change of subject? Here's the Wiki description of "potboiler":

Potboiler is a term used to describe a poor quality novel"..." that was created quickly to make money to pay for the creator's daily expenses..."

What was really ironic, is that he then told me he'd read The Windup Girl, Paolo Bacigalupi, which is a complex and dense state-of-the-art S.F. novel that recently won both the Nebula and the Hugo for Best Novel.

I ended up selling him Perdido Street Station, China Meiville, and Anathem, Neal Stephenson.

Not the result I expected when he came in asking for Cussler....

*********

I came across a great quote from George Orwell, (From Robert Gray's column on Shelf Awareness blog):

"When I worked in a second-hand bookshop--so easily pictured, if you don't work in one, as a kind of paradise where charming old gentlemen browse eternally among calf-bound folios--the thing that chiefly struck me was the rarity of really bookish people. Our shop had an exceptionally interesting stock, yet I doubt whether ten per cent of our customers knew a good book from a bad one.... Many of the people who came to us were of the kind who would be a nuisance anywhere but have special opportunities in a bookshop."

I love that last line -- "Many of the people who came to us were the kind who would be a nuisance anywhere but have special opportunities in a bookshop."

Oh -- I don't agree (mostly) . But it's funny.

"Dumpster diving, frankly, is also very trendy."

"Dumpster diving, frankly, is also very trendy." Quote in the Source.

Dammit! No matter how hard I try, I can't seem to keep up with the latest trends!

**********

Me: "We just went and saw Harry Potter!"

Jasper: "Did you like it?"

Me: "It was very good."

Jasper: "Why was it good?"

Me: "Because it was so dark....."

Customer comes in and we get busy and we leave it at that....

**********

I've used the same description of "dark" to describe Harry Potter several times since, and no one has yet asked me to explain.

**********

Every few years, we get a huge flock of tiny birds swarm the tree outside the store, who chatter away for an hour or two, non-stop. Cool sound, actually. The birds are very punctual. Every day at 4:00.

**********

Who knew Barista's were so deadly?

**********

The only day I actually eat breakfast is on comic shipping day -- which says something about the stress level of that process. I just have to remind myself to relax, it'll get done when it gets done.

Hey, comic customer tapping you're toes at the counter -- I'll be done when I'm done!

(Doesn't work. They want their comics, dammit!)

It's better than it used to be -- and, frankly, I'm glad there are still some folk who are that eager.

**********

Never mind the country as a whole. Never mind Oregon. If the jobless benefits extension doesn't go through, it's going to have brutal impact on Central Oregon.

Still, in the end, these things almost always seem to go through....after everyone has postured enough.

**********
"Why Oregon Lags In Personal Income."

Empirical proof of 'Poverty with a View.'

Say 'friend' and enter.

Mellon!

I guess I actually have to personally join Facebook to access my Pegasus Books of Bend page. (My guys set it up...)

So, I'm going to have a Duncan McGeary page and not do anything with it. I'm sorry, it still seems too much like High School to me...

(Really weirdly, there is a 'Duncan McGeary' in London. NEVER thought that would happen...)

**********

Comics are coming in today, a day late. I managed to get Cameron to come in today instead of yesterday, so we should have the comics out in time. It usually takes until 2:00 in the afternoon to get it fully done.

Next year, we get early shipping, so even with a shipping delay of a day, we won't fall behind, and hopefully, we can get the comics put out within a short time of opening on Wednesday.

I've got to hand it to Diamond -- they are extremely slow about changes, but they seem to improve steadily with their policies.

**********

After the initial bracing slap in the face, the comic retailer bulletin board came around to some good advice. Mostly, they all think I should have a Pegasus Books website, with it's own domain name, or whatever.

I have someone I'm going to ask to set it up for me. Mostly a 'static' site, with links to the more active sites. (Obviously, my blog.....)

I remember, years ago, when I used to get someone in the door just about every hour asking if they could set up a website for me.... (this is not a hint -- really. I've got it covered.) Just saying, there were a whole lot of people running around trying to make a living designing websites...

**********

Techishness

It looks like we missed the brunt of the winter storm that was forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. None of the 40 mph winds, or snow, or freezing rain.

Or was it just delayed?

I noticed a car in a car wash yesterday. To me, this is like throwing your money into a muddy puddle.

**********

Giuseppe's has closed. I've added it to the list.

This is significant because this restaurant had been around almost as long as I have. The Source's comment was:

"However, like many downtown establishments Giuseppe’s struggled to find its niche in the new downtown scene where customers have rewarded novelty, innovation, and, well, newness—none of which Giuseppe had in any great quantity. With this week’s closure, Giuseppe’s joins, Ernesto’s and Bella Cucina on the list of locally owned Italian eateries that haven’t survived the recession shake-out."

Trying to parse this comment, it seems a little snippy, Kind of like the writer is saying, "gee, this place just wasn't cool enough for us twittish Bend eaters..."

As Jon pointed out over on Hack Bend, a couple of years ago, Giuseppe did indeed try for the "novelty, innovation, and well, newness" factor by renaming to Bistrow Pow.

It didn't take.

**********

So I proudly announced the Pegasus Books of Bend Facebook page on the retailer bulletin board, under the heading: "Finally, a proper website."

To which I was informed in not so gentle terms that, No, I do not have a proper website.

It's just Facebook, way to join the 21st Century, "I don't think I'd call it a proper website nor do I think it's something that would motivate someone to visit your shop."

Dis-spiriting. But after I got over it, I realized they were probably right, and I shouldn't expect people to cheer my baby tech steps.

I should have a "real" website, they say. And also a My/--/, and a Yelp page, and a.....

I'm feeling a tad bit of techishness....

**********

Unseemly haste...

I first heard about the possibility of an ice rink in downtown Redmond around mid-November, by the end of November the Redmond officials had voted for it, and it appears that it will be ready by Dec. 30, 2010.


I heard that Bend had the same idea. They've had three city council meetings trying to decide whether they should have a preliminary study about the possibility of contemplating the speculative notion of thinking about hiring a real study to perhaps look into future of maybe doing a winter ice rink.

But first, they want to apply for federal, state and county grants. Until then, they've designated 200,000.00 of the general budget to pay an outside expert to find out which research group they should hire to look into the preliminary study about the possibility ..... see above.

One city council member has already mentioned that he thinks it's foolish and shortsighted to only have a winter ice rink. They could build an enclosed building for the summer months, perhaps turn it into a skateboard park. But it has to be wheelchair accessible, he said. We don't want to go through that again!

Why do only skating type sports, asked another city council member. There is a minor league hockey team from Moose-saskatchewan, Canada, that is looking for a new home. All Bend has to do, is guarantee the first five years of revenue for the team.

A third city council member piped up. Slow down. If we are going to build this thing -- let's do it right. We can use our eminent domain and tear down the buildings on Bond St. and build a world class stadium. Imagine, baseball and football and basketball -- and then, when we have our four year university out at Juniper Ridge, we can let the local college team use the stadium.

It should be an attractive stadium, said the first council member. We should hire an important architect.....


I left the third meeting around then. I hear they're having another meeting in a couple days, to schedule a tour of downtown stores to decide which ones Bend doesn't need anymore. Be sure and join the process.

Me? I'm going ice skating in Redmond. I can't wait. And apparently, I won't have to...

ANATHEM

ANATHEM, by Neal Stephenson.

In some ways, I'm surprised this book exists. Surprised that it was written, surprised it was published, and surprised that it apparently has an audience. I mean, who is the audience for this? Philosophers who like science fiction?

I tried to get into this book at least three time, and twice I was put off by the made up words, the heavy subject matter, and the archaic phrasing. But I've loved Neal Stephenson's books, even the Baroque Cycle, which seemed to put off many readers for ... well... the above stated reasons.
Sure -- Quicksilver might have been about Isaac Newton and his scientific discoveries -- but it was also about pirates and sultans and harems and magical gold.

So I was determined to get far enough into the book the third time to get hooked, and I'm glad I did.

The trick with Stephenson for those of us who aren't as smart as he, is to read the books for the story and try to pick up as much as you can of the complex themes.

I'd describe this book as a Adventure in Philosophy -- or a Philosophic Adventure. Add to the mix, science and religion, and he's tackling some mighty big subjects. If you were to lay out all the philosophers he mentions, I'm pretty sure you'd find a chronologically correct historical philosopher and or philosophical movement -- and religious, and scientific -- in the real world. If I wanted to work at it, I'm sure I could go back and read the original thoughts.

And yet, at the same time, it's a page turner once you absorb the terminology and understand what he's getting at. He writes beautiful prose, fully fleshed out and sympathetic characters, rousing adventure, intricate plots, and imaginatively described settings.

A typical passage might be about an adventure through a crevasse filled mountain pass, and dodgy companions, and -- at the same time -- almost every page will also contain an illuminating philosophical discussion.

It's brilliant.

Banking the fires.

I think I just enjoy the challenge of trying to do the same job with less money. It's possible to do, if I use a little ingenuity and savvy. It's a matter of timing, a matter of making every dollar count.

For instance, it might be possible to sell 8 of an item by ordering 12. A couple of the 12 are more or less wasted through lack of attention, or inability to display, or using them as samplers or...any number of reasons. Maybe I have a customer I'm courting, or a customer I want to keep coming in and I give them a copy for cost. A couple more, I might sell for an extreme discount, or as an add-on to a large sale, just to get the numbers down. So I end up really only making good money on the 8.

However --

I might be able to sell 6 of the same item by ordering 6, and getting the full margin for each and every one.

Now, if business is booming, I don't mind the first technique. A little extra flow of material isn't a bad thing, even when I don't make money on every item. The occasional sampling, the occasional discounting can prime the pump. Because I'm busy, it just give me the chance to go on the next thing and the next without over-thinking it.

If sales are on the increase, I don't even worry about it -- I just figure that it will all even out in the end, which -- because I can count on increased future sales picking up the slack, is pretty much true.

But when I can't be sure about the future -- it's better to order exactly what I think I can sell. So, I can make nearly as much money with 6 items, by ordering 6 without the risk, as I used to make ordering the 12 items and selling 8. But it requires being completely on top of it. Making sure that I don't run out too quickly, making sure that I have complete sell-through. Making sure that there isn't a disappointed 7th or 8th customer out there, and if there is, trying to get the other 2 items without it costing too much.

So the second technique is more work, not quite as loose and generous and easy-going. But it can end up doing the same job, and making the same money. And I sort of enjoy the efficiency of it,
when the challenge presents itself.

The one thing I wish I could do is keep up this level of efficiency when times are flush. But I don't know if that's possible. And I'm not completely sure that would be desirable.

I've made the case here more than once, that a growth strategy is different than what I call a 'maintenance' strategy. There is a built in inefficiency to growth, because I want to be sure that I don't run out of material. As I mentioned above, I spend more time cultivating customers, trying new things (which may or may not work out), and so on.

When the store is in a growth stage, I'm stoking the fires, throwing more wood than absolutely necessary, and letting the sparks fly.

When I'm trying to maintain the store, I'm banking the fires, making them last, keeping them going, conserving them until I can stoke them again.

Responding to the challenge.

So what can you do when business slows down?

I see four options. (A fifth option of adjusting your spending levels to your revenue, goes without saying.)

1.) Increase your promotional efforts. This option I think is the least effective. I don't think advertising for Pegasus Books works in the best of times, and works even less in the worst of times. Except, perhaps, when you do option:

2.) Decrease prices. Have a major "Sale!" Give product away, and advertise the fact. Thing is, while this may help you raise funds in the short run, it effectively damages your inventory in the long run. Except when you sell product that you got at discount yourself, and which you have no intention of replacing it. Which you can only do when you do option:

3.) Buy more product. This is my preferred option; get more stuff. Back during previous slowdowns, I'd try to get product from my suppliers and try to get better payment terms. I'd try to get longer periods to pay, for instance. But having lots of product to sell, and having the option to offer customers a discount (in most cases, in a one on one situation) seems to work.

4.) More service. I mean, much more service and knowledge, because if you've been a viable business for any length of time, you are already probably above and beyond the call of duty.
Often, this ties into #1, above, the promotions. Free space, free time, free events, etc. etc.
After 30 years, this is my least favorite option. I fear burnout more than less sales.

I tend to do mostly Option 3.) Buy more product. Unlike the old days, I'm being offered deals all the time, and my strategy is to be as opportunistic as possible, all the time, not just when it's slow. If I can get something at half the normal price, I can sell half as much or take twice as long to sell it. So I do everything I can to keep the store well-stocked, which in the long run the customer can feel and will respond to.

I'm trying to stretch every buying dollar, leverage my budget to the maximum. Of course, if you give away too many discounts, you lose the advantage. Still, I will also do Option 2, Decrease prices. But only on product I get a deal on, and only when I have to, and only if I don't replace it. I tend to offer these deals on a one to one basis, because I know whether I can do it, and whether I need to do it.

Selling off perennial product, (best-sellers, must have in stock) , just to raise capital, is a muggs game, obviously. It takes 4 or 5 turnovers to both make the original margin and keep the product in stock -- and that's when you get the 40%. If you sell it cheaper, it takes much longer.

So far, I've managed to get good product replaced, and bring in a constant flow of new product, and still get everything else done. So, I'm feeling like a management success.

Why the Hell am I so upbeat?

Why the Hell am I so upbeat? Really.

Other than the fact that I think it's a personality characteristic that is a necessary part of being a shopkeeper. Being a bit of Pollyanna. Goldilocks. Pangloss.

Despite having my slowest month since 2005, I feel like the store is in good shape. I still turned a profit this month, I kept the bills paid, I kept the store up to a very high standard of inventory. I have plenty of ammunition left to fire away at Christmas.

You just get a sense of when things are all right, and when they're not. Sales are not the only standard to judge by.

I'm still excited to go to work every day. I still think the future looks interesting.

I'm ready for the challenge. For some reason, it gets my juices flowing.

Facebooked

I was bemoaning the lack of promotional opportunities last week with Cameron.

"I've told you before," he said. "I'll put up a Facebook page for the store."

Long pause. My defenses crumble.

"O.K."

"Really!" I could see the excitement in his eyes. "I'll get started tonight!"

*********

Sunday morning. A sign on the counter. "We're on Facebook! Please sign up!"

"Were you in on Saturday?" I asked Cameron. "That was quick."

"No....Matt must have put up the sign. We've already got a whole bunch done!"

"How did Matt know about it? Did you call him?"

"No...I Facebooked him."

"Oh."

**********

Cameron shows me our Pegasus Books of Bend Facebook page, and it looks like a proper website. Lots of good looking stuff on there. He and Matt have been tossing ideas back and forth, and they're getting Jasper involved.

I'm letting the three guys run with it, with a bit of oversight, but mostly I want to see what kinds of things they can do. They've already done more than if I had tried to dictate what to do with the page.

"One thing," I said. "I want you guys to keep the site up-to-date. I don't want you abandoning it in a few weeks when you get busy doing something else."

"No problem," says Cameron.

**********

So there you have it. The store has been Facebooked. No doubt, I'll look back and wonder what too me so long.

PEGASUS BOOKS OF BEND.

Black Weekend results.

Credit where credit is due. You've got to hand it to the mass market. They've done a hell of job of claiming Black Friday -- Black Weekend -- to themselves. Hijackers.

20 years ago, these two days were huge for us. Now? Not much better than average....

I may think the chainstores have accomplished the dirty deed with Smoke and Mirrors, but...well, they've done it.

(You know, either those discounts are impacting their margins or they're not. If so, then all those increased sales won't turn into lots of profits. If not, then they are a big phony deal that we've all fallen for...Smoke and Mirrors.)


I actually had a lot of people in the door on Friday. My sales were slightly over last year, but way below what we used to do on this day.

Sales were down on Saturday. The weather really didn't help there.

I'm sort of expecting an average Sunday.

Overall, we were down from last year, but not by much. Since my expectations were nil, I'm pleased overall. November, however, pretty much sucked. Over the last five years or so, November has turned into my slowest month.


Interesting -- what happens is that these kinds of weekends tend to spring loose my regulars -- so that I make more money, but it's the same people as usual. Plus their families. Because, it's seems to be my kind of people this season.

My evidence is -- during busy times, my comic and graphic novel sales tend to be about 45% of my total sales. During the off season, they tend to be between 50 to 55%.

In November, comics and graphic novels have been 65%. Which means the drop off hasn't been so much among my regular customers as it has been the 'Off -the-Street.'


I wrote the middle part above in the middle of the day on Friday, so I think I need to revise it slightly. I did have tourists and locals spending Christmas money during the day. So, like I said, I'm pleased.

Adventures in the Obvious.

I'm shocked -- shocked, I tell you! -- that Willie Nelson was caught smoking dope. In Texas!

**********

Sales were up on Black Friday. Really?

**********

It snows in Bend. Sometimes it snows in Bend all Winter long. Get used to it.

*********

"Don't worry. Sales will be better at Christmas." Wow. Thanks for the information. I would never have made that part of my planning, if you hadn't told me.

**********

"Burlesque" is apparently not a great movie. Tell me it isn't so, Cher!

**********

"Marines most resistant to openly gay troops."

Oorah!

**********

Flat screen T.V. prices are going down. Just like they did last year. And the year before....

**********

Father to three boys who start to open the door to the store. "You don't want to go in there! You don't even read!"

Gee....I wonder why.

**********

"Couch Potatoes Resistant to Change."

Could that be because they like to stay on the couch?

**********

Four Year Blog Anniversary.

Four years of blogging, my friends.

Every day. (Well, I did have a "Go Ducks!" entry, but it still counts, right?)

Who knew I could do that? I think the discipline of doing it every day has been good for me, and I've been leery of giving it up. Like -- if I miss even one day, it'll all fall apart...

Turns out, I have a rather facile ability to make up something to say every day. It's more or less just talking out loud, to me. At first, I actually limited the number of entries, because I didn't want to wear out my welcome. I would go to bed at night trying to figure out what I was going to say the next day. I was worried about saying something insightful and surprising and entertaining.

Now....I just pick up the paper, ruminate on the day ahead, and usually something comes to me. (And some of you are no doubt thinking, "Yeah, and so much for being 'insightful and surprising and entertaining.')

When I started, there was a bunch of blogs who talked about the local economic conditions. Now, I feel like I need to be a platform for those who still want to talk about it. I don't think Bend is through the woods yet, by any means. In fact, I think we've still got a ways to go.

This blog has been tightrope when it comes to how much to reveal, about myself and especially about my business. I mean, it isn't worth a thing if I'm going to dissemble about what's going on, but then again, I've found that being too revealing about my successes or my failures can be counter-productive. Still, I think, so far I've been able to keep a nice balance of candidness and "it's none of your damn business."

This balance between being self-revealing and keeping my cards close to my vest has always been a bit of struggle for me at the store, so it's played out on this blog in the same way it's played out in my life.

My store was reaching a real maturity level just as the economy was about to tank. So it's been an interesting ride. The last four years have been my most profitable years, which is kind of strange, you know? But....it took a long time to get there, a whole lot of mistakes, and I think I've been able to manage the current conditions pretty well.

Fortunately for this blog, my mood has been pretty good over the last five or six years -- I admit to being a tiny bit grumpy for the middle part of my career as I was trying to pay down the debt and keep the store alive and pretty much working everyday.

Despite the Great Recession, my stress level has been nothing like what it was during the collapse of the sports card market -- and the non-sports card market -- and the card game market -- and the comic market -- and pogs -- and beanie babies -- and pokemon -- and...

In comparison, these last four years have been a walk in the park. (A very dangerous park, with muggers and falling trees, but at least it isn't Escape From New York...)

I'm not happy with what the sales levels have been recently, but I understand them, and strangely enough, they haven't hurt me because I've constantly adjusted my spending. In the background, Linda and my economic situation changed enough so that we aren't quite so near the edge -- but that hasn't really affected either store, much. Just sort of a reassurance, behind the scenes.

It's a weird thing to be grateful for -- but the fact that I've been through such downturns before, and know how they affect my business and my moods and my life, and how to respond to them, is a real blessing. I'd hate to have discover all this for the first time, again.

I think the tone of this blog has been relatively moderate and thoughtful -- surprising both myself and probably most people who knew me in the stress filled years immediately proceeding this blog. I made a few early missteps, possibly because I was trying to live up to my rancantour image, but mostly because I didn't realize just how available my musings would be to the world at large -- and especially (since search engines are so effective) whatever I might say about individuals. I have no desire to hurt people's feelings.

Writing a blog has allowed me to reflect on what I'm saying before I push the "Publish Post" button. In some ways, it's allowed my better nature to emerge. Which has probably affected my everyday thoughts and words at the store more than I could have ever expected.

There is still a whole lot of new things to discover about business and Bend and the world, so I intend to just keep blogging along.

Happy Thanksgiving....grumble, grumble.

Being the ungrateful wretch I am, I thought I should point out the news item that Bend had the second worst drop in housing prices in the country in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, I didn't get my weekly shipment of comics yesterday, which means I won't get them until either Monday or Tuesday. Since these shipments represent about 70% of current sales, this is a bit painful.

Still, I keep a stocked store, so I'm not really that concerned. Nothing I can do about it anyway.

It used to send me up a wall. Every Holiday, we get this. I think it's because of 'temp' packers and 'temp' drivers and so on, and also because of the weather. But in both cases, there isn't a darn thing I can do about it.

So, what I'm grateful for, I think, is that I take these kinds of hits so much better than I used to. I've tried very hard to internalize the Stoic philosophy. Generally, when I walk out that door, I quit thinking about the store, which is healthy.

My life is so much better than I ever thought it would be, that a missed shipment of product shouldn't be allowed to affect my mood. It's just bizness.

Everyone have a great time this weekend, and don't forget us little shops downtown!

Reading at the store.

For most of my career, I've had a general policy of not reading at the store. Oh, I'll pick up an occasional comic and skim it while I'm standing there, but flat out concentrated reading, not so much.

There are a couple of reasons for this.

1.) I don't like being interrupted while I'm reading.

2.) It doesn't look professional.

I haven't been a dick about this with my employees. I've told them it's O.K. to read, but ONLY if they immediately lay the book down when someone walks in the door. There have been other stores I've wandered into where the clerks acted like they didn't care if I was there. Bad message.

But things have gotten slower, and I've found myself a little too often doing nothing at all.

So, I decided with snow on the ground and plunging temperatures and it being Tuesday in November and all, I'd let myself read.

The mistake I made was -- I was reading Catching Fire, by Suzanne Collins, the second book in the Hunger Game series.

If you haven't heard of this series -- you will. Let me be the first to tell you about it. I think it's going to be the next big thing -- the next Twilight, if you will. The next Harry Potter. Maybe not as big, but it's getting there.

And I was hooked. The second book is even better than the first.

Customers were walking in, just as Katniss was ready to take someone down, defy President Snow, save the helpless. Great stuff.

I'm a little annoyed by the romance motif -- she loves Gale, no she loves Peeta, no she loves Gale, no she loves Peeta -- but then she takes out a bad guy and all is forgiven.

So, I'm not sure about my experiment in reading at the store. Maybe I just need to pick less addicting books.

Santa knows -- the future.

I think I write this blog entry every year. Not because I plan to, but because every year around this time I start reading these inane predictions for Christmas.

This year, they -- the media pundits and "experts" -- are predicting a better Christmas. "Shoppers are Back!" "Retailers are Bullish on Christmas Sales!"

The cover to Barron's proclaims, "Here comes a Holiday Surprise."

Here's the thing. There is no conceivable way they know that. It's total guesswork. They might as well use the I-Ching to give them answers.

Hell, half the time I don't know what kind of Christmas I'm really having at Pegasus Books until the ACTUAL WEEK OF CHRISTMAS!!!

Customer polling? Really? Personally, I have no idea how much I'll spend -- it'll depend on what I find, and how much it perfectly matches what I think my friends and family want, and the price, and ...well, there are no end of variables.

I'll go so far as to say, "All shopping is local." Sure, there may in the end be a national average, which will be up or down a few percentage points. But it comes down to individual towns and individual stores.

The weather, for instance, can play a huge role. A couple a pristine inches of snow on the ground and 35 degree weather might be perfect for shopping. 8 inches of snow, and zero degree temperatures, not so much. 8 inches of snow and a light rain, and sloppy slush, even worse. (You know, throw in 25 mile an hour winds....)

By the way, that last forecast is the actual Bend forecast. Heavy snow, low temperatures, followed by rain and slush and wind. Whooopeee.

Try to guess that two months in advance when you're doing your Christmas ordering, or two weeks in advance, or even two days in advance.

I'm just saying, it's all nonsense, and I don't know why they bother. They just needs something to write about, I guess. I suppose the retailers are hoping to start some sort of mindless stampede -- but at the same time, they are so manipulative and so obvious about it, that the herd is getting more skittish every year.

And I'll say again, as I say every year, it isn't about the sales, it's about the profits. If they give away the store by discounting heavily, they make higher sales; or if they hold the line on prices, they make lower sales, but better margins.

It's all so obscured now by manipulative pricing, that even Black Friday is beginning to lose all real meaning. Can you really trust that fighting the crowds will get you the best deal? I kind of doubt it. I suspect the same exact deals will be around a couple weeks later, and probably even better deals the week before Christmas, and even better deals the week after.

This year, the retailers are once again showing their short-term vision, by starting all the "Black" sales early -- which I think is going water down their effect. Hell, I've been immune to them for years -- because I think they're mostly B.S. -- and eventually the average consumer is going to catch on.

My advice?

Buy something of quality for your loved ones, look at the pricing --sure, do that -- but more importantly buy something nice, and that they really want. Not something that's cheap because it's cheap. Add your time and stress level into the cost of something you buy, and you might find it more fun to shop next Tuesday, take your time and enjoy yourself.

I guarantee you -- there will still be stuff to buy.

Enough Kindle to start a fire?

RDC responded to yesterday's post by saying, "You should be happy. If everyone was really interested in minimizing time spent, they would just order online and not bother to go to the store"

Well, I have a theory about that, too. (I have a theory, right or wrong, about everything...eh?)

Here's how I perceive an online customer, whether it be Amazon, or a Kindle customer:

They want a book. A very specific book. They go online and order it or download it.

Here's how I perceive a Pegasus Books customer:

They wander into the store, they see a book they never knew they wanted, probably a book they didn't even knew existed, and they buy it.

Here's how I perceive a Bookmark customer:

They come to look at all the books, they see a book they remember that they once wanted, or a book by an author they like that they've never seen before, or a book that looks interesting, and they buy books. Mostly in multiples -- because they're getting them usually for less than 25% of the original cost, and because they are often old and out of the mainstream system. These customers like being in the presence of, and surrounded by, books.

In some ways, those three customers are three different types, with three different goals. (Obviously, lots of cross-over; sometimes you're one kind of customer, sometimes another.)

I've been saying for a long time now, that our customers, both mine and Linda's, are not the people who come in looking for a specific book or even a specific author -- they come in because they are readers and want books. Or they know that we have a selection of a lot of types of books.

Books -- not book? Get the difference?

These people are almost by definition, browsers, people who enjoy the process of shopping, who like feeling and touching the books and talking to the proprietor and who are capable of being surprised and coaxed and influenced.

The customer who wants the latest Oprah book? Who is told by a friend or relative they just MUST buy this one book because it's so great! Who see a book on the best-seller lists, and decide they simply must read it?

Those people are mostly lost to us already. They are already buying from Amazon, or at Costco, and I suspect that Kindle is just the next step in the process.

It's amazing how often people come in and are looking for a single book -- and we don't have it. I mean, that's not really on us, it's not really a failure, it's just a factor of there being so many books in the world. That they often walk out without finding that one book (and without buying anything else) -- well, that's already happening. They are most likely going to Amazon or Kindle.

Besides, if they are truly only looking for that one book? If it's new and hot, it probably hasn't even reached us yet....or conversely, it's old and rare and only available online anyway.

But wandering in and soaking up the books, like at the Bookmark? Or wandering in and being surprised by the quirkiness and uniqueness of the titles, like at Pegasus Books?

Now matter the price or the convenience or selection -- Kindle really can't do that. It's like having a picture of a nice fireplace on your big screen T.V.

Or having the real thing.