The Bastards keep offering deals....!

Tuesday, was a slow day, like most Tuesdays. But I did have a couple above average sales.

In both cases, it was odd product. Not the usual thing. Art books, art graphic novels. Not even stuff that I would normally replace after selling it.

But here's the thing. I had them in stock. They sold.


Meanwhile, my main distributor seems to be offering more and more deals.

This week alone:

1.) The Blizzard Sale, which runs about a month, and which I've already utilized. There are Image graphic novels I want to buy, that are about half the normal price. Next week, probably.

2.) DC Archives. Reprinting the original DC comics -- Batman, Green Lantern, Wonderwoman, Superman, etc. -- in deluxe HDC's, at about half the normal price.

3.) Star Wars Graphic novels -- and extra 10% or so.

4.) Marvel posters -- a minimum price.

5.) Wolverine Graphic novels -- about half the regular price.

6. The usual Thursday liquidation sale.

7.) Marvel HDC's at about 1/3rd normal price.

I have a theory -- the engine of Pegasus Books sales is lubricated by a constant flow of new material. It's important to get the Evergreens, but that's not enough.

So if I order, on a constant opportunistic basis, material that is offered on "sale", I'll have a constant flow of affordable material. The material I order on any one week may not sell, maybe I'll sell something I picked up six months ago, but SOMETHING will sell. It isn't really about the margins -- the margins make it possible to bring in a flow of new material when sales are down, and to be able to wait longer for the material to sell, and to feel good about offering the occasional discount to regulars.

I'm trying to get a 'taste' of each sale -- not go crazy. Thinking in terms of 100.00 worth of stuff, instead of 1000.00 worth of stuff. But constantly get that new material in.

This week:

A.) I ordered the Star Wars Graphic novels on the list I didn't have in stock. All Star Wars Graphic novels are evergreen. So even at 10% off they make sense. What I didn't do, and might have done in the recent past, is order multiple copies.

B.) I am going to order some posters, because they are pretty cheap, and I have a few gaps in my poster rack. Not the best posters, but I never am quite satisfied with the posters offered, and I am often surprised by what sells -- not necessarily the posters I would pick for myself. Again, getting them cheaper allows me to find that out.

C.) I ordered eight DC Archives -- Green Lantern 1 (double) and 2; Wonderwoman 1 and 2; Justice League of America 1; Legion of Superheroes 1; Flash 1. All iconic characters. This is really back-list product that doesn't sell very well -- but then again, if I'm going to carry 10 Archives -- 18 Archives will sell them better.

D.) I'm going to order a few of the Wolverine graphic novels. They sell, though are more mid-list than evergreen. Just titles I don't have.

E.) I'm not sure I'll order any of the Marvel HDC's, even though the price is enticing. They don't sell all that well, and I'm already overloaded with them. I'm thinking maybe I ought to just take up Marvel's offers every few weeks and stock up to the gills and then have some sort of blow-out half priced sale. If I thought that work, I'd do it. This week, I might just pluck a few of the best ones.

F.) Made a minimal liquidation order. Just to get a small taste of unusual stuff.

G.) Held off on the Image graphic novels, because the Blizzard sale extends into next week.

Trying to fit all these multiple sales into a tight budget is hard, but I'm thinking with the economic factors at play, maybe even more crucial. The temptation is to quit ordering them, since they aren't necessary -- in the short run. But I think that would be a mistake in the long run.


The rest of this post is pretty wonkish. How I decide on what material to order.

I categorize my product into three types.

A.) Evergreens. These are proven sellers.
B.) Mid-list. These are worthy, but slower sellers. Possibly 'prestige' product that sells slowly but which no good store is without. (Maus, for instance...)
C.) Back-list. These are much slower sellers. Normally, I pick these up when they're on sale. Or they are leftovers.

These categorizations are for in-stock product. My advance orders are obviously more of a guess. Some of the new product will turn into Evergreens. Others will be mid-list, and yet others become back-list.

My theory is, everything sells eventually, even the back-list. If you have broad expanse of them, at least a few will sell every day. And if you got them at a cheap enough price, you can afford to wait.

It makes my store different than any other store, even stores of a like-mind. All good comic stores will have the Evergreens. Most good stores will have the prestige mid-list. But no other store will have exactly the same mix, and especially the same mix of back-list.

Yesterday, for instance, I tacked on two sales of graphic novels by offering the customer a very good deal on them; I had purchased them at much cheaper prices and have multiple copies. So that was a good bonus for them and for me. (At the end of the very slow day, these hand-sells were about 10% of the total, which has been my overall guess about how much I can add by working; my employees can't really make the same deals...)

Going into the future, I want to continue to be opportunistic -- but to fit into the budget. My basic strategy will be to:

A.) order all Evergreen product offered at a discount.

B.) order mid-list product if it is half the usual price or less.

C.) order backlist product if it's a screaming deal.

"Go ahead. Make my day."

About the new graphic cigarette warnings.

First of all, I'm shocked and alarmed to find out smoking is dangerous!

What's next? How about an audio chip, that every time you open a pack pipes up; "What? Another one? Your funeral, buddy!"

You could use a variety of voices.

Freddy Krueger: "Go ahead... put it on. It's in your blood. That's it. Put it on. Feels good, doesn't it? Yeah... come on. Let your daddy show you how to use it."

Gollum: "What’s it doing? Stupid, fat Hobbit! It ruins it!"

Darth Vader: "You are unwise to lower your defenses!"

Wicked Witch of the West: "Ring around the rosie, a pocket full of spears! Thought you were pretty foxy, didn't you? Well! The last to go will see the first three go before her! And your mangy little dog, too!"

Dirty Harry: "I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

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Not reporting your wife missing for a week. Might seem a tad suspicious.

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Land prices in Bend have dropped 40 to 60%?

Actually, that doesn't seem like enough. Self-evidently.

But where are all those money people who proclaim Bend's bright future? This would seem like a good time to get in on the ground floor. After all, we are going to see hordes of lifestyle refugees and retired folk, right?

Meanwhile, Urban Growth Boundary? -- meet bare land. Bare land ?-- meet UGB.

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Speaking of UGB. Someone posted a ongoing discussion on the Bend Economy Bulletin Board, entitled: The UGB. Expansion process: Like watching grass grow.

They got that right.

They posted it 2 and a half years ago....

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I've always made the case that if you want to know how a retail district is really doing, visit it in the off season. Say, on a cold, snowy Wednesday in mid-November.

Had to go through the Old Mill yesterday. Not a shopper in sight. Yet all the parking spots in front of the stores were filled.

Sure, they have acres of parking, but the walking distance is at least equal to the parking garage downtown.

Not that the shopping activity downtown was much better....

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The seas are still stormy.

A few days ago, in The Sea is Calm, the Sea is Stormy, I commented on the completely divergent views I'm gleaning from the economic press.

Today's Bulletin has a review of the Central Oregon's Economic Forecast meeting.

Obviously, I'm much more inclined to believe Tim Duy's prediction, than the other fellow. I think Central Oregon still has a leg down to go, or two.

I think there is, and will continue to be, a "superficial" recovery. Stores opening (and then quietly closing a year or two later). The "appeal" of Bend is working to that extent. But the underlying economic forces are an undertow which will be a constant drag on that optimism.

In a sense, the optimists are saying that "If you Build it, They will come." The realists are saying, "And work Where? At what Wages? Buy a house and watch it drop in Value? Open a business without a complete understanding of local conditions?"

I remember when we were in the Mountain View Mall, there was an almost constant optimism that the mall was going to recover -- new owners, new facade, new advertising campaign. But the fundamentals were so flawed, that nothing less than a total makeover -- such as what Sunriver is doing -- was going to help. In fact, the Bend River Mall made much more drastic changes, and -- well, it doesn't appear to have helped all that much, though there are so few small stores there now, who knows?

The Mountain View Mall is gone completely, and much of this happened during the Boom. The damage was before the Boom. The Boom created Cascade Village -- which is completely unattractive to me.

Anyway, I don't know that I have any further insights into all this. But there doesn't seem to be any other blogs left who are a platform for views about the local economy, and I'd love to hear what you guys think.

Pull and Hold.

My pull and hold subscription service for my comic customers has always been a bit of a mixed blessing.

I have a hardcore nucleus of customers for whom I pull new comics as they arrive, and hold for them. For instance, if they want Amazing Spider-man every month, I order for them and put them aside. So even if I sell out on the floor, they still have the comic.

This was a huge part of the business when I bought the store. In some ways, you could say I bought Pegasus Books because of the subscription list -- these were customers who I knew were interested, and who I felt were being underserved.

Back then, most customers were eager to make sure the new comics they wanted were added to their lists. Mostly because, back then you couldn't get reorders very easily and if you missed them, you were out of luck. And because, there was a relatively few number of comics, you could add comics without it breaking the bank. Not to mention, the average cost was about .60 back then.

The downside is, I'm paying for these comics more or less when they arrive, whereas the customer can more or less take their time coming in. I've never been able to really crack down on the laggards too much, because many of them quit and I never get them back. I've never felt I had enough of a surplus of customers that I could weed out the bad from the good.

The few times this might have been possible, were the few times I had competitors in town who would quickly take my customers if I tried to crack down. I've read of stores in other towns who are very strict, who ask for credit card information up front, but this would pretty much be a disaster around here.

The second downside is, that it is more or less traditional to give a small percentage off. My discount is 10% off if you make it within the month and clear your shelf. As I've mentioned before, 10% is nearly 25% if my profits. It's crazy to give 10% off when you're ADDING a service, but every time I've tried to eliminate the discount, a competitor has come along and offered an even bigger discount.

The third downside is that I'm ordering way in advance, so I'm committed to buying from my wholesaler, whereas my customers can disappear at any time. (And they do...they do....)

The upsides are: I have a good foundation that I know I will sell most of, and which get me to certain levels of discounts. I use it as a platform to decide how many new titles to add, and often make the decision for my customers. This is optional but works more often than not. (The days when customers eagerly add to their lists is long gone.)

Anyway, I quit pushing the shelves years ago -- the customers are interested enough, we'll both know it's time to get a shelf.

The numbers of subscribers has dropped faster than the sale of comics, which is a good result, I guess, since it means more people are buying -- full price -- off the floor. More sales of graphic novels.

So I've been letting attrition take place, and biting the bullet.

There was a time when I was really at the mercy of advance orders -- I was committed to buying X amount of stuff no matter what sales where doing. By adding books and games and graphic novels, I'm able to order "on time" and in the quantities I want that week -- not months in advance.

I'm really seeing the benefits of that; even as the subscribers lists continue to decline. It's kind of painful to watch, but I know in the end it will probably be good for me.

There's something about drawings...

I have a lot of art books at my store. I'm pretty eclectic in my tastes; all the way from modern art to impressionism, to illustrative, to commercial, to -- obviously, fantasy and comic art.

When it comes to individual pictures, the distinctions start to disappear. You know, a great picture is a great picture.

Anyway, I often find myself drawn (heh) to line-drawings, instead of the finished, polished art.

Vallejos, for instance, is way too polished, posed almost, leaving little to the imagination. Alex Ross -- his pictures are great to look at the first couple of times, but get -- almost too sweet and surgary for me after awhile. Like listening to a catchy pop tune too many times. I love Frazetta more, possibly because he is less finished in his art -- and the very roughness seems to keep the picture alive, as if there is more to happen.

I have finished artbooks of Royo, for instance, but there are also the original sketches, and again, I think those are much more intriguing.

I snagged a used copy of James Jean third artbook, Process Recess Vol. 3, and the art comes directly from his sketchbooks. They show street life, friends, strangers in the next row. Great stuff.

His artwork for the Fables series is great, but these sketches are in some ways more interesting. They are somehow free-er and looser and a glimpse into the artist's mind.

Door to door financial adviser.

Just had a financial adviser at my door handing out his business card. He works for a major brokerage....

Maybe this isn't as crazy as this sounds. I mean, if someone came to my door and had "extra" roofing or paving material and was offering me a hot deal, I'd close the door in their face.

But I'm thinking, at least this guy's got lots of gumption.

Anyway, I'm happy with the financial guys I have, and just sort of chuckled --"Door to door?" I said, in wonderment. He just said, "What?" Like it was the most normal thing in the world.

Anyway, we got our real estate agent this way. Well, he came into Linda's store and started talking to her, and something about the guy felt right, even though he was more or less operating out of his car.

But he led us directly to the house we now own, the second house we looked at, and he led us to the bank who gave us the mortgage, and it was about as good a mortgage as we were likely to get at the time, 30-year, fixed. All in all, it worked well.

Certainly, he gave us a lot of his attention, and I think he gave us good advice, which I suspect wouldn't have been true if we'd gone with one of the major real estate agencies at the time. (This was in January, 2004, just before the market went totally nuts.)

I always say at the store, I can tell how slow it is in the business world at large by how many cold calls we get.

So this may be another sign.

Bend Blogs

I put the wrong date on the previous blog, which I've corrected. But once they're uploaded to Bend Blogs with a certain date, they stay that way forever.

This is a good time to say how important I think Bend Blogs is; it is by far the biggest referral site to my blog.

Next time there is a "Best Of" vote here in Bend, it is ludicrous not to vote for Bend Blogs. It is by orders of magnitude the most important blog around here.

I don't know if other towns are lucky enough to have such an aggregator. But I'm glad we do.

Sunday sundries.

The Vole-ceraptor brought us another vole. Feeling sorry for the voles.

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One reason our government runs out of money. Got back an overpayment of: $1.24.

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A lot of dirt kicked up lately. Getting lots of hits about Tami Sawyer and Broken Top and such...
Curious folk, I guess. Reading my past blogs about the subject, they hold up pretty well.

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Was going to mow the lawn one last time on Saturday, but the battery was dead. Well....gosh darn. I was forced to watch the Ducks....poor me....

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Christmas is coming. The size of this morning's paper tells me so.

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I like this description of Cleopatra in a new book: a "fiery wisp of a girl." Gee....just like Elizabeth Taylor -- when she was ten years younger.

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Wouldn't the most green house you could build -- be the one you didn't?

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Linda was dressed all in green this morning: "It's not that easy being green.

When green is all there is to be
It could make you wonder why, but why wonder why
Wonder, I am green and it'll do fine, it's beautiful
And I think it's what I want to be."

I couldn't remember the tune, darn it.

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The heck with that. I'm giving you the whole song. I'm sure Kermit won't mind. Space is free, after all. Don't be stingy, baby. It's the kind of song that might just lift your morning.

It's not that easy being green
Having to spend each day the color of the leaves
When I think it could be nicer being red, or yellow or gold
Or something much more colorful like that

It's not easy being green
It seems you blend in with so many other ordinary things
And people tend to pass you over 'cause you're
Not standing out like flashy sparkles in the water
Or stars in the sky

But green's the color of Spring
And green can be cool and friendly-like
And green can be big like an ocean, or important
Like a mountain, or tall like a tree

When green is all there is to be
It could make you wonder why, but why wonder why
Wonder, I am green and it'll do fine, it's beautiful
And I think it's what I want to be

The book devil.

You want to watch me talk myself into buying books I probably can't afford?

I keep a list of books that I glean from the internet. Books that just seem to call out to me. Cool books. Good books. Books that fit my store. Books that I yearn to have....

Books I can't really fit into the budget.

Damn.

'Wait a minute,' I tell myself. A little red figure pops up on my shoulder. 'Christmas is coming!'

'Yeah,' says a little white figure on my other shoulder. 'But what if it does what last summer did, and comes in well below average? Besides, you already spent a bunch of money on sale product that you have to recoup at Christmas.'

Meanwhile, I go on Shelf Awareness, and see these wonderful pictures of covers, I read interviews of authors who proselytize certain books with an evangelistic fervor. 'Oh, I want that book. I really should have that book.'

Then again, every other entry is about another independent bookstore closing. ' Ouch.'

'Yeah, but you're in good shape financially,' I say to myself, my little devil nodding vigorously'-- sure, the cash flow is starting to look iffy, especially if you order too much, but....but.....you have plenty of credit, and these are GOOD BOOKS!'

A thousand dollars would buy a lot of good books. 'A measly thousand dollars....' Says the little devil on one shoulder. 'You'd recoup that in no time!'

'That's what you always tell yourself,' says the angel on the other shoulder. 'You've already got plenty of good books, and you have a budget that will allow you to order more. Just not crazy more.'

'Yeah but Salmon Rushdie is writing a fantasy book! A fantasy book, dude! Salmon Rushdie!" I visualize the little devil with a bunch of books speared on his little tail.

The angel, on the other shoulder, is empty handed, beatific. "When was the last time you sold a Rushdie book? Or a new hardcover?'

And so it goes....

Caught you....

A few weeks ago, the police stopped some drug traffickers here in Central Oregon. They stopped them because their car was "weaving...."

Wow! I thought at the time. How stupid do you have to be to be weaving your car while you have drugs?

A couple of weeks later, same thing. Drug smugglers on Highway 97, stopped because they were straying into the other lane.

Again, I think, Wow! Were they partaking of their own goods?

Then on Thursday this week -- you guessed it -- druggies caught again because: "...after seeing it drift into another lane of traffic and nearly hit another vehicle."

Mug shots of these guys make them look guilty as hell. Yep -- that's what drug smugglers look like. Then again, mug shots make everyone look as guilty as hell.

I don't remember if all these three crews were Hispanic -- it seems to me that one of them wasn't. In a day and age when profiling is frowned upon, police need a good excuse to stop guilty looking guys.

Driving to Redmond with Linda a few days ago, I started to realize that just about every driver on the road "drifts" a little, sometimes up to and slightly over the lines. I mean, drifting would seem to be unchallengeable -- in the eye of the beholder.

Just saying -- not sure I disagree. I mean, while profiling seems a very slippery slope, I also have to believe that enforcement officials probably have pretty good instincts. So while I can't approve of racial profiling as an official policy, I believe we have to give the police some leeway on doing their job.

Like most of these issues, it isn't black and white.

Peanut allergy.

Leitmotiv asks me what I think of the new Game Quest store on Highway 20. (Is this a second store? More?)

Anyway, let me first say that video games are completely out of my area of expertise. You get next to no margin on new games, you get it later than the mass market who have piles and piles of games as loss leaders. So, I do believe, most independent video game retailers make their nut on used games.

They are also a vastly larger market. Video games are Pro Football, and comics are High School Football in comparison. Well, maybe a small college conference.

We carry new books because, like comics and graphic novels, there is a decent Suggested Retail Price. Not that the big boys abide by that S.R.P., but it gives us a target to shoot for. Toys, cards, and video games have horrible margins -- which are further subverted by the big boys. The bigger the product, the more likely it will be sold as a loss leader.

But....dealing in the secondary market, that I do know something about. The buying and trading of used video games entails a large element of wheeling and dealing, which I've slowly but surely exorcised from my own business. Not that there is anything wrong with it. There is an actual need for a secondary market -- a good way for people to unload unwanted material and for others to pick it up cheaper.

I think there are ways to do this with integrity and honor. And there are lots of ways to do it with....shall I say, less than integrity and honor? Think used car salesmen.

I'll tell you what, when I realized that I was being regarded and treated as if I was a used CARD salesman, I wanted nothing more than to get out of that business. I didn't have the rhinoceros hide I needed to brush off the rough Kalahari trading terrain. Really, who needs it? Life is short.

But there are people who actually enjoy the process of wheeling and dealing and who are good at it, and they fill a necessary niche.

Me? I don't trade or buy anything off the street anymore.

Not that it wouldn't be beneficial if I could see my way to doing it. I did it for about half my career, even though I wasn't very good at it. I gave way too much in money and trade credit for what I got; and, of course, the irony that finally drove me out of doing it was being accused of the opposite. Of bleeding red ink, but being accused of being a profiteer. Thanks, but no thanks.

So I get good product from wholesalers, mark it up to retail, and try to run a straightforward business.

But here's how I think you can make it work: like I said, assuming you have a rhinoceros hide and can convince your customers that you are being fair with them.

You have the customer on one side, who has a product he no longer wants or cares about.

You have the buyer on the other side, who has a market for that unwanted product.

If you can buy that product for say -- 10% of what you are going to sell it for if it's really slow moving product; 25% of what you are going to sell it for if it's good selling product; and 35% of what you're going to sell it for if it's smoking hot product -- then it makes all kinds of sense.

BUT....and this is to me the biggest BUTT; you have to realize the psychology of the seller is that -- wait a minute, I paid full price and you're offering me 10% (never mind that the seller has no use for it anymore.) Or worse -- you are going to charge five times would you gave them?!!!

Well, yeah.

Hey, why would I pay 40 or 50% when I can buy BRAND NEW STUFF -- untouched, great looking product for that? Sometimes, if I'm opportunistic, I can buy BRAND NEW STUFF for even less!

So, my buying your used material only makes sense -- wait for it now --- if I get a DEAL.

Like I said, I got tired of doing it. I got tired of seeing desperate people selling stuff, and me only being able to offer a pittance....

I liken it to suddenly getting a peanut allergy halfway through my life -- I used to eat peanuts, I liked peanuts, and now -- suddenly -- if I eat another peanut I'll fall over and die.

What about used books? you may well ask.

First of all, we don't buy cash, where the most misunderstandings happen. We send people elsewhere.

Secondly, we have a set trade value. If the customer thinks they have a more valuable book, we send them elsewhere. We cater to the reading crowd. (No doubt there have been Book Scouts in our store who have chortled on their way out the door: "Fools! They sold me a 1st edition for nothing!! HAH!)

To which I say, whatever -- if we had it, we traded for it at regular price, and a golden peanut is still a peanut.

Thirdly, Linda is in charge, and she doesn't have a peanut allergy. There have been times when I've been in her store and overheard a conversation and felt peanut hives rising, but I left the room....

As far a video games stores, well, I wonder if they aren't going to face the exact same pressures of Blockbuster and Hollywood -- rentals and downloads would seem to be the future.

The sea is calm, the sea is stormy.

I think this may be the widest divergence between what I read in the news and what I see in my own store I've ever seen.

I know from the sportscard business, that this can go on for a long time without being exposed as hogwash. I know that what matters is what my cash register says, not what so-called experts say in the media. But it seems to me, that for the moment, the 'good' news is predominating.

There is an equal amount of bad news out there, if you're looking. But it's not being played up the way the good news is; a little bit in reverse of what it was a little while back. Always interesting to read the media narrative -- the ocean of news, stirred up, washing on shore. Does the media choose to see the breaking whitewater, or the calm midday seas?

It's a deep wide sea, and there will be a storm on one shore, and tropical warmth on another. The economy and the news about the economy are like the weather -- predictable in it's unpredictability.

Doesn't matter. What matter is what I'm seeing, and what I'm feeling, and my instinct is that we next year won't be much improvement. I mean there were declines that were more severe in 2007, and 2008, but they were due more to the shocks to the system. This is more like systemic shock, if you catch the distinction.

I know that I need to remain careful, and conserve my energy and cash, so that when this all plays out, the store will be in a relatively strong position. I just think next January through June of next year are going to be a lot like this fall -- that's always been my experience. I know from the track record that January, February, March, April and May are usually a mirror image of September, October, and November -- indeed, usually a little lower.

Some locals, like Deschutes Brewery, are obviously betting that things have at least leveled off, if not improved. I recently talked to a downtown business owner who just had their best October ever. And I admit that I could be wrong, or that what I'm seeing is affecting only my business, for whatever reasons.

But as I mentioned in the earlier entry today, I can always order more if need be. I prefer to wait and see.

Wait and see attitude, right now.

I just sent off my lowest advance order to Diamond in living memory. (I mean, obviously way back I must have had lower orders, but those memory cells are no longer living...)

Diamond is my principle distributor, where I get almost all my comics and graphic novels, and from whom I can order games, toys, and cards.

This event is not as significant as it once was.

Nowadays, I have many points of entry, and even a few points where I can jump off or lower my orders. It's not quite the commitment it used to be.

Fortunately.

Still, it seems to be an indicator of something. Lack of confidence in the economy, I guess. Comfort in my inventory mix.

I remember it being a hallmark moment a decade or so ago, when my reorders started to match my advance orders. It gave me much more flexibility in how much I got in the store and when I received it.

Advance orders usually still have the best volume discounts, and usually the best postage rates, and certainly the best fill rates. But again, that no longer seems as important as it once did.
If they run out of one thing, I can just get something else.

Back during the "hot" days, I didn't dare run out, I didn't dare not order huge quantities of material. I remember once that my main sportscard distributor said to me about advance orders-- "Well, unlike me, you can order as little or as much as you want." But I thought that was a nutty statement back then. Sure, I probably didn't have to have absolutely everything the way a distributor would, but it seemed damned important that I have the important stuff in stock.

Back then I couldn't be sure they wouldn't run out; or that the prices wouldn't shoot up overnight.

Now, I have less customers who will freak out if I don't have everything they want every time they come in. It ain't possible, anyway. Too much stuff in the world.

So I guess there are some positives to weak demand, after all ..... There are compensating factors.

I think my diversification efforts are mostly responsible for my current ability to play the field. I still get the occasional, "If you don't order this, it might be gone (or more expensive.)" But now I just shrug and say, "Whatever." I'm not sure I want to get caught up again in that little game.

Thing about advanced orders --especially through Diamond -- is that once I place my order I am more or less committed to that product. . I can't not accept shipment, I can't refuse to pay. On the other hand, if I under-order, it's relatively easy to get on the phone and order more. So the downside of advanced orders, now outweigh the upside. Nobody ever went out of business selling out.

Like I said, this is probably a bad indicator for the economy as a whole. Certainly makes it hard for producers to know how much to produce, and wholesalers how much to warehouse. But, we retailers are the ones who face the day to day brunt of the marketplace. I think there are more escape valves for wholesalers and manufacturers.

This gives me room to maneuver, which is priceless. I can watch and wait.

""Best Minimum""

Who knew four years ago when I named this blog, that there would be a veritable army of unemployed middle aged guys googling those terms: "best middle aged jobs"; "best minimum"; "jobs for middle aged" and endless variations of....

I didn't know this was happening until I started checking my stats again, just recently.

Never mind the question, why would you ask for "Best minimum wage...."? I mean, isn't that pretty much in the eye of the beholder?

But there is something very revealing in the number of middle aged guys asking the question.
I'm betting that most guys who have had minimum wage jobs their whole lives would NEVER think to ask that. Hell, they wouldn't have the computer....

No, I figure these are newly unemployed middle aged guys who are.....questioning....contemplating..... Minimum Wage Jobs....

Very interesting, and somewhat alarming.

It's a mad, mad, mad, mad, mad world.

I had to add that extra mad, because the world is just that much more mad than it was when the movie was released. One more mad probably isn't enough.

So the stock market goes up, and it's the highest it's been since I've had any involvement.

The Fed hands another 600 million to the banks. So ... stocks go up.

Is that because they think the banks are suddenly going to start loaning money? At lower rates?

Or that the banks will have so much cash they can....hey, buy stocks! Or something equally dubious and duplicitous.

Sorry, don't much like banks these days.

News of the Weird.

Sometimes it seems as though the promotional world is some weird alternative universe, bearing no reality to my day to day business dealings.

Two struck me today as completely strange.

The first concerns a new Executive Director of Business Development for Diamond Comic Distributers.

“Luke will be creating programs to the class of trade that includes home centers, dollar stores, mass, etc.”

Home centers? Dollar stores?

Good luck with that. Mass market? That's been the dream of the comic publishers and distributor since I started. Hard to see how that's going to happen now, or that it will be ultimately beneficial to any of us.


The second was today's announcement that Border's has closed it's warehouse:

"Borders is closing its 564,000 square foot distribution center in La Vergne, Tennessee, according to the Nashville Post. The shutdown, which will take place on December 23rd, will eliminate 93 jobs, according to the report.

Borders is under significant stress, and is attempting to reduce expenses to return to profitability."

When I first read that, I thought: How do you run a national bookstore without a distribution center?

Second reading -- it doesn't say it's the ONLY distribution center, but....really, how long can this Borders diminution go on?

Ew,ew.....I really have to add a third promotional weird.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, DC announced they were rolling back their comics to a 2.99 price point. Marvel immediately jumped up and down and said, "We too! We too!" but they were damned vague about it.

Today we get a clarification:

"The pricing structure is that for limited series in the Marvel Universe that we roll out, we will price as many of those as we can for $2.99 for a 32 page book."

Whatever.

Ridiculous.

Bullpucky.

Thanks for nothing.


Meanwhile, in the real world. I had a woman in from New York, who expressed support for independent bookstores ("I so LOVE the Strand Bookstore," she says.) So we talk books for awhile, and she seems interested in finding a good book and she tells me the books I'm carrying are the kind she likes....

And yet.....and yet....

I could tell it wasn't going to culminate in a sale. Oh, it would have if: 1.) I really sucked up to her and spent at least half an hour going through all the books she might like. And 2.) If I'd played up on her heartstrings, "Yes, independent bookstores are having a rough time...) hint, hint.

I didn't feel like it. We talked casually for awhile, and the moment passed, and I got busy with other customers, and I saw her leave.

I'm just not willing to go that extra step this time -- the sucking up process is distasteful. I want customers to buy the books they want, and if they don't want books...then so be it.

Same thing with discounts. In the past slowdowns, I'd sell a significant portion of my inventory with "deals" or "discounts" but there is a huge element of a short-term two steps forward, long-term three steps back to that process, and again, I don't need to and certainly don't want to sell off my best inventory for less than replacement costs.

Pride goeth before the fall? Perhaps. But if I'm going to make minimum wage, I don't see why I should have to give up my self-respect at the same time.

Oxy-moronic

One of the headlines in today's Bulletin was "Change is Here to Stay."

I thought of leading off this blog with "Guerrilla Warfare from the Inside."

We voters seem to want Change -- no Gridlock -- no Change -- no Gridlock.

Meanwhile, I think we just re-installed the guys who drove us into the ditch, and fired the tow truck driver.

That's all I have to say, since this is not normally a political blog.

Game Fatale

I had a long and involved dream about buying Warhammer for the store.

Warhammer is a very detailed tabletop game, involving miniatures. Think of the movies with the wacky English lord moving armies across a table landscape, and you get the picture. The games and figures are relatively expensive, but also kind of cool. You paint them, and then play them.

But they aren't a small commitment, in time or space or money. And basically, I don't think I can do them. There has always been someone in town who has taken on this task, and more power to them. Unless I intend to play the game myself, which I can't imagine, I'm better off letting someone else do it.

The store in the dream was nothing like the real store. The Warhammer game in the dream was nothing like the real game.

So what was the message of the dream?

There was an interesting quote in today's paper about gardening. A 70 year old gardener is talking about 'simplifying' , but can't seem to cut back on the plants she buys. (I heard my Mom talking about cutting back for years, but she never could...)

"We talk about simplifying, but the whole joy of gardening is being creative. And creativity usually means adding."

What I find in my store is that adding also forces me to be creative about the rest of my store. And that I'm generally unhappy just resting on my product, no matter how extensive it is.

Warhammer has always been enticing. Like a beautiful dame who's clearly dangerous.

Given enough time space and money, I probably would attempt it. But it isn't possible.

There's enough going on in my store to stay creative, so my subconscious needs to get real.

Get real, sub-conscious!

Dead Cat Bounce.

You know the saying, Hindsight is 20/20.

Well, I think ironically enough, foresight can also be more accurate than current sight.

Going into this downturn, I could make some educated guesses about how it would play out. I had experience in multiple bubbles (cards, comics, pogs, magic, beanie babies, pokemon), I had experience in local downturns (most of the '80's). I could make some pretty solid theories about what was going to happen.

Measuring the size of the bubble, I could make some overall guesstimates about how deep and how long this thing would go.

Add to that some research into previous recessions, and especially housing bubbles (California and Texas), I went into this downturn thinking it would take at least 7 years, that it would be deeper and longer than anyone expected.

Roughly speaking, I was telling myself to be aware that I'd be wanting to constantly call an end, to believe -- to hope --we were over the worst. And to remind myself that it can take so long to come out of one of these downturns, that you more or less give up looking for it. That when the recovery starts happening, you're still dealing with the wreckage and often don't recognize it

By my count, it has been about 3 years since Bend's bubble burst: for me, Sept. of 2007. I started this blog in Nov. of 2006, so I had about 10 months to prepare. (I was preparing before that, obviously, mostly adding inventory and new product lines, but that's when I really got serious about getting debt out of the way.) Again, by my original estimate, we have at least 4 more years to go.

I was remarking to Linda yesterday how no matter what sales do, the store keeps turning a profit. My cash flow remains manageable. How could that be?

Pretty simply: I don't have debt. Debt is what caused all the stress in the past, no matter what my sales were doing at the time. I've had sales much higher than now, and been unable to pay my bills. There was a point in time where 40% of Gross profits were going toward debt. So this has been a walk in the park, compared to those bad old days. That plus having sufficient inventory to go week to week. And having actual cash and credit to call upon. All I have to do is adjust spending to results.

So, even as severe as this downturn has been, it's been relatively easy to maneuver.

Another thing going in that I knew was going to happen, was that I wouldn't have any real idea how anyone else was doing; (nor, given the secrecy of small business owners, was I likely to know) ; I warned myself that I'd see things that didn't make sense; that I'd sometimes feel like I was the only person going through it. I used to have a saying that "If I'm feeling it, chances are everyone else is too." Which is fine, but in the midst of it, can be small consolation, especially if everyone else appears to be thriving. Finding out later that everyone else was in the same boat is reassuring, but doesn't help much in the moment.

When the actual details, the actual numbers, start rolling in, it becomes easy to lose sight of the overall plan; the overall theory I had going into the bubble.

Another thing that has kind of thrown me, is how well Bend seems to be doing retail wise. Lots of new stores, not a whole lot of vacant spaces. But here again, I have some previous experience. The surge of stores often happens well after the bubble has popped. And I believe that Bend has retained it's appeal to a surprising extent.

The final little insight I had going into this, was that I thought that Bend -- having had a relatively late and relatively large -- hell, huge-- bubble -- would also be out-of-sync with the rest of country, hell, out-of-sync with Oregon. There would be continue to be a delayed reaction here in Bend, no matter what was happening elsewhere.

In the end, it doesn't matter how anyone else is doing. It's in my best interest for them to be thriving, because I don't live in a vacuum; and a rising tide raises all ships. (if you don't mind a few mixed metaphors.)

Anyway, around September of last year, sales started to increase from the previous year. I made a bunch of posts about how this was in comparison to probably the worst economic drop since the Great Depression; Sept, 2008 was when Lehman went down, and there a whole bunch of down months following. So, as I kept saying, it was like beating up a 90 pound weakling.

But frankly, I missed the most obvious metaphor.

A Dead Cat Bounce.

It was the very epitome of a Dead Cat Bounce.

After a string of seven up months, the recession took hold again, and sales started dropping back down. A double dip, if you will.

The Dead Cat Bounced, and rolled toward another ledge, and has started rolling downhill.

So far, except for the initial surprise that the bounce was ending, I've been pretty good at pre-empting the course of the economy, of making sure that my base of spending was below what was actually happening. So I've had a bit of a wake-up call to continue to be careful.

So far, I'm attributing about 70% of the current downturn to the economy, about 20% to the fact that most of my product lines are on down cycles, and about 10% to the fact that I've taken a whole lot of time off.

All predicted in advance, but temporarily forgotten in the heat of battle.

So I'm still feeling pretty good about my navigating the course of this recession, and I just need to keep reminding myself of my original predictions.

The Rally for Yuppies

I watched the last two hours of the Rally for Sanity/Fear. (Apparently, I didn't miss much the first hour...) I didn't mean to; I was just going to watch five or ten minutes, but it was moderately amusing so I kept watching. More or less an extended Daily Show or Colbert Report, with guest stars, and awkward live bits.

The crowd seemed mild and yuppie-ish.

Also looked really large to me, but I haven't heard any estimates. Fox estimated 7 people, and Stewart, like ten million.

I kept expecting Bruce Springsteen. And for them to say the word, "Vote."

Funny thing is, the rally is almost critique proof; especially by the media. Indeed, most of the criticisms I've read seem kind of churlish.

Really, it was so mild and bland. Eh.