Writers, writers, everywhere.

Twice this week, I've had the creative impulse to continue one of my ongoing fiction stories.

The first time, I got busy and by now I'll be damned if I can remember the scene. Which is the danger of writing, while being busy. And more or less sums up why I haven't seriously pursued my writing career.

The second time was yesterday, and because I had Matt covering the opening hours at the store, I actually sat down and wrote the scene, and revised the scene proceeding it, as well. Very satisfying.

Thing is, I have 2 different novels I've started which have 5 chapters completed, 2 different novels started which have 4 chapters completed. And the promising start of another novel which would be a prequel to my seventh completed novel, which was my favorite but which never got published.

I liked all these beginnings, frankly, and think I'll try to nibble away at continuing them. No concern about where it all may lead...just have fun telling the story.

Suddenly, it seems like I'm surrounded by writers. There's Chris, who made it to last week's writer's group and seemed genuinely excited. There's Matt, who is producing works of fiction almost everyday on his On The Subject of Being Awesome Blog.

Yesterday, had a young guy come in and introduce himself as a S.F. writer. Ken Scholes. Turns out he is doing a signing at Paulina Springs bookstore -- last night in the Redmond store, and tonight at 6:30 at the Sisters store. I hope some of you guys can make it. Chris? Are you out there?

Looked up the author on Amazon, and sure enough there are a plethora of positive reviews. They sound right up my alley, and I'm intending to both order them for the store and to read them.

Here's the e-mail from Amanda at Paulina Springs:

"Hi Duncan,

We are hosting Ken Scholes, author of the Psalms of Isaak series, here at Paulina Springs Books this weekend. He'll be at our Redmond store on Friday, Oct. 29 and our Sisters store on Saturday, Oct. 30, both at 6:30 pm."

I apologize that I didn't get this message up yesterday.

Here's Ken Scholes Wiki entry:

Ken Scholes (born January 13, 1968) is a science fiction and fantasy writer living in St. Helens, Oregon. He refers to himself as "trailer boy", a reference to his childhood home.

His short story Into the Blank Where Life is Hurled won 3rd place in the 4th quarter of the 2005 Writers of the Future contest.

His first novel, Lamentation, was published on February 17, 2009. Based on a previous short story entitled "Of Metal Men and Scarlet Thread and Dancing with the Sunrise", it is the first of five in the Psalms of Isaak saga. Book two, Canticle, was released in October 2009.

Psalms of Isaak

• Lamentation, Tor Books, February 2009
• Canticle, Tor Books, October 2009
• Antiphon, Tor Books, September 2010
• Requiem, Tor Books, Forthcoming
• Hymn, Tor Books, Forthcoming

Defying gravity.

Had a guy in last week from out of town who was a golf course bankruptcy expert.

"Which golf course?" I asked.

"Can't tell you," he laughed.

I was talking about our crazy Bend boom, and later on in the conversation, he mentioned a golf course...."What were they thinking?" he said. I don't feel like I can say which golf course, because I weedled the information out of the guy without informing him that I might post the info on a blog. It probably doesn't matter -- I think it could be ANY of the golf courses.

And frankly...I think it was misdirection, anyway. He caught his mistake, unless I was reading the conversation wrong. I'm guessing, most likely, he was in town because of Broken Top, which has already been in the paper as a possibility. But I don't know.


Add that little nugget with the news in today's paper that Jeld-Wen is has unloaded or is trying to unload their destination resort properties, and you got to figure all these guys are hurting.


Add that to all the news about new retail "malls", and the constant churn of stores in downtown Bend, and the death-defying moves of CACB and....well, I don't know what to think.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that we existing businesses are only now feeling the full brunt of the downturn -- that enough time has passed, and enough of a less than encouraging future stretches out before us -- that reality, gravity, is setting in.

But, apparently, for Bend the froth continues -- though if you look at it a little more closely, what do we really have? A couple of empty complexes -- which used to house businesses that created good paying jobs, in exchange for a bunch of retail. One of the complexes -- if you don't mind me saying -- is less a mall than a flea market.

Making lemonade. One 0f the new retailers in the Brightwood complex actually touted the "industrial" feel of the place. Well, I understand that. Make if funky, baby.

Still around.

Just had a guy in the store who was buying volumes 4 and 5 of Walking Dead, who is reading my books.

Hey, he's into the second book, (Snowcastles) which means he liked the first book (Star Axe) enough to keep going. (Told me he likes the second book better.)

I mentioned that he needed to get Icetowers to get the complete story, and he informed me he already had it.

He bought the book online from London.

Pretty much makes my day. The thought that there might still be people out there picking up my books and reading them.

Last two people who have visited Powells, couldn't find them there. Not surprising, since it's been 30 years more or less, and the cover prices were around 2.00, which most used bookstore don't find sufficient to stock.

Media Geek-asm.

Avert thine eyes, Muggles, for I speak of Nerd Rapture.

**********

I really enjoyed SHERLOCK on Masterpiece Theater. Fast moving, smart, and strangely faithful to the source material.

Plus, I get to see what the new Bilbo looks like. (Martin Freeman plays Watson.)

Pure fun.

**********

I'm looking forward to the Walking Dead on Halloween night. From the tone of the reviews, I think people are ready for a straight-forward, non-ironic, non-symbolic Zombie movie.

My Zombie shelf at my store is getting more and more packed. I expect Zombie backlash....

**********

Speaking of The Hobbit. It's going forward, with Peter Jackson, in New Zealand, two movies (Radagast the Brown!) starting in 2012.

Glory Be! my friends. Glory Be!

**********

Now if they would just do a proper version of Conan, and do Doc E.E. Smith's The Lensmen, and maybe the Chronicles of Amber -- my life would be complete.

Obama on Stewart.

As you know, I like Obama. I think he's done his best. A reasonably good job in trying circumstances. None of which sounds like a rousing endorsement. But he's miles above his opponents, in my opinion.

Anyway, I watched him on Jon Stewart last night, and the thing I came away with was -- he really, really thinks that things have stabilized and that things will get better from here. He admits the politically correct, "Things could be better..." but you can tell he thinks things are getting better already.

So is he in some sort of adviser cocoon ?-- "Things are improving Mr.President!" Or is he just an incorrigible optimist? Or could he actually be right?

I still feel he's our best chance of navigating a course through all the extremism and dire problems we have, but I fear that -- just as not enough has changed in two years for an impatient public, not enough will change in four years....

This isn't just a normal recession -- and I thought going in that it would take many years to dig ourselves out of this, if we took our medicine -- which I still don't think we have.

But I don't see anyone on the horizon who I don't think would make things worse -- possibly much worse.

It's just a little snow......

Well, this month hasn't been half bad, you know. Certainly better than last month.

I mentioned a few days ago that it appears I have finally reached a point where I can make regular systematic reorders, at regular systematic amounts.

So I show up yesterday for work, planning to make my new 'regular' once every two week order of new books and new games.

But first, I busy myself straightening and cleaning. None of my employees seem to abide much to the" half-inch rule" -- which is my own strange little creation that says that; if you have a packed store, that every half-inch of material that is off-kilter adds up, until you have an overall impression of chaos.

Or maybe I'm just obsessive-compulsive. At any rate, I usually find plenty to do on Tuesdays.

As I'm straightening up, I begin to notice that I have little or no gaps in the books. If I order more books, where will I put them?

I look at the list of games sold, and realize that I would have to buy filler product just to reach my minimum order level, which I don't much want to do.

So....I decide to hold off, at least for a few days, and see if anything changes. I mean -- I'm apparently stocked, since there doesn't seem to be any real need.

Maybe it just isn't feasible to have regular, systematic times and amounts when you own a small business -- because customers simply aren't systematic and regular.

Midway through this process, a lady comes in and buys one of the tall paperbacks for half price, which is 5.00.

I look around, and the day is half-over and that's my first sale. Hmmmmmmm.....

Another couple hours go by, and I clean the vacuum cleaner and eat lunch and browse the internet, and around 4:30 another woman comes in and buys a tall paperback for 5.00.

So I've made a grand total of 10.00 with the day 3/4ths over.

This is when I literally go and check the OPEN signs, to make sure they're on. I look out on the street, and out of 12 parking spots, 6 on each side of the street, only one spot is filled.

Double hmmmmmmmmm........

It approaches 5:00 and I realize this will be the WORST day in the history of my business, at least while I was working. (I did have a zero day, once, but I've always wondered if my employee forgot to unlock the door or something....) I mean, you'd think people would stumble into my store by complete accident and buy something. Like throwing an empty hook into a stream and snagging a fish. Something.

At exactly 5:00, guy comes up to the counter with a stack of books.

"Oh, you're ruining my worst day ever," I said.

"Sorry," he answers. Then he compounds the problem by signing up for a comic subscription and thus becoming a brand new regular -- the most valuable kind.

I then proceed to have a pretty good hour; not much of a day, but not the worst ever either.

It was a little strange to be rooting for the worst day ever label, but .... what you gonna do? Sometimes when you have a bad day, you just got to go with it.....

Sunriver Books

There weren't any movies we were excited to see on our usual Monday outing, so Linda and I decided to drive to Sunriver and visit the bookstore there.

We've talked to the owners a couple of times now, and it's very enlightening.

They've recently more or less doubled in space, (lucky stiffs), and have a nice wide room for 'Readings' and 'Signings', of which they have a number of impressive authors lined up. They've curated a great selection of books, and present them in an extremely attractive way.

I can see how all this outreach might work, -- if you're consistent, which would probably get around among authors and provide a steady stream of them; and get around among regulars; and just overall creating a positive impression of your store.

But for me, it's more work, time and space than I could possible do.

Linda realized that we had forgotten our 27th anniversary on the 21st, so we bought each other a couple of nice pens. Linda really likes these -- I call it Pen Envy -- and I like them well enough. There is a very tactile pleasant sensation to holding a good pen. (No Freud here, please.)

So there you have it -- it takes 27 years for the wife to overlook the anniversary for the first time. (Me? Um....no comment.)

They're working on renovating the Sunriver mall, especially the ice rink. We went into Hot Lava Bakery and had coffee and muffins, and talked to the owner.

I think everyone out there is excited by the renovations, but also feeling stressed by all the construction.

How many times have I seen towns trying to get that community gathering place put together just right? It's difficult and mysterious and happens -- I believe -- one store owner at a time.

You can't usually just create it by fiat. It's a slow accretion of viable businesses that act with synchronicity and it is just wonderful when it happens -- but it's partly wonderful because it so rarely seems to happen in small towns, anymore (what with the pressures of malls and big boxes and strip malls.)

I watched it happen in downtown Bend, and I think it was a series of happy accidents. (Just about everyone disagrees with me about this, but dammit, I was there.) It's kind of moved away from it's bohemian rebirth, which I find kind of sad, but still has a wonderful vitality that most downtowns would kill for.

With me or without me....

I continue to purchase sports cards, but I admit I don't pay a whole lot of attention to them. As long as I can sell a few hundred dollars worth of cards every month, and as long as I can afford to buy some boxes, I'm already set up to sell them, after all, and boxes and packs are easy to accommodate in the space afforded and I've all but quit doing anything with singles except sell off my back stock at .50 a card -- whatever they're really worth.

Anything old I sell is pure bonus, and as a result I've actually begun to stockpile boxes from the last five to ten years which undoubtedly have some value inside them -- if anyone cares.

Now that I'm actually checking my blog stats, I realized that not only do some sports card people come here, but that I'm actually included on a couple of blog rolls.

Going to these sites, they are packed with info and news about sports cards, and I realize that this is one of those industries that just keeps going -- with me or without me. With my constant attention, or without my constant attention.

In other words, it's a whole world of collecting of which I've been only distantly aware.

I get the occasional nostalgic wave -- despite all the stress, I enjoyed my time in the sports card market, I enjoyed watching the games and talking to the customers.

But I just couldn't seem to make it work anymore.

I found an online magazine that included a history of sports cards -- ( I could write a history that would accentuate an entirely different slant) -- and a couple of sentences really seemed to stand out.

"As the 80's turned into the 90's"...."Many collectors turned investors found themselves selling at net losses and becoming increasingly disillusioned with the hobby. As a result, several small sports card shops liquidated their supplies and closed their doors."

I absolutely love that: "....several small sports card shops liquidated." Which is a little like saying, "The Titanic sprang a small leak." "The economy lost a few jobs in the Great Recession...." "President Lincoln's evening at the theater was cut short...."

It's interesting the contrast the obvious nostalgia of the writer of the article for the card shops of old:

"To a young collector, the local sports card shop was a paradise of wish list items, good sports banter, and the occasional trade with a fellow collector."

Which is followed later in the article by current state of the market:

"As the new millennium hit and the internet was finding its way into more and more households, eBay ushered in a completely new phase of the baseball card hobby. For the first time in its history, individual collectors decided the true market values of sports cards and memorabilia. Prices that were once updated on a monthly basis now ebbed and flowed in real time similar to a stock market ticker. Baseball card collectors had an opportunity to sell dispensable items from their collection to then purchase other items. Trading forums, websites and blogs have done volumes for the industry by connecting collectors from around the globe to a common meeting place to exchange sports cards and sports memorabilia."

I'm not sure that the classic card shop, and the above online world of cards can co-exist all that well.

Finally, the article blames dishonest dealers, over production, and ever increasing prices as problems -- to which I would add, the mass market, the emphasis on gambling, and the state of "heroes" in sports.

Personally, I have always felt the demise of a sports card market (that I could belong in) came about because of the mass market.

The online market was not only the nail in the coffin, but a whole bucketful of nails -- lining the coffin every centimeter. Don't think that corpse is getting out anytime soon.

Sunday sundries.

"Bend's Awbrey Glen Neighbors Speak Up."

"We never would have moved here had we known this," says a resident about the restrictions of the high end development.

Hello? Gated Community?

Hey, so you want exclusivity -- but only THIS much exclusivity.

“Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!”

Churchill: “Madam, we’ve already established that. Now we are haggling about the price.”

**********

I enjoyed watching the Giants/Phillies game yesterday.

Don't laugh, but I was amazed to hear the announcer say that the skinny, long-haired pitcher had won two Cy Young Awards. Or that the tall drink of water in the Phillies outfield had tied the record for most post-season homeruns.

I'd never heard of either of them.

Has it been that long since I paid attention to baseball?

Apparently.

**********
Mountain Goat.

My brother and I were walking the Dry River Canyon a few weeks ago, and on our way out a couple of other hikers asked us if we'd seen the critter.

I'd totally forgotten about it.

I'm glad it's moved to the Newberry Crater area. I was worried about it.

You know what? I think he needs a name. Maybe if he has a name, no one will shoot it. Because there is always some yahoo out there who doesn't get with the program....

Billy? Way too easy.

Gruff? Kind of like it....

**********

Nibbles and noshes?

Like the phrase. Anyway, that's the way I've been eating for years, now. Little bit here, little bit there, never really a full meal.

Makes it hard to explain to family and friends -- especially Foodies --when they ask me about meals and cooking and so on, and I don't have an answer. Of course, I do it because I'm lazy, not for my health.

"Ah....I just sort of eat whatever, whenever...."

**********

Some folks are saying the Ducks won't be #1 in the BCS this week either.

Whatever.... maybe not being #1 is a good thing, at least until the final game of the year. #2, on the other hand, is crucial.

Hey, BCS Computer....stuff it.

Stick it in your ear, baby.

Maybe the Humans know better, eh? Darn machines, taking over the world.

Go Ducks!

Muddling through.

What's the difference between:

1.) Having money and spending it.

2.) Not having money.

3.) Having money but not spending it?

Oh, all the difference in the world, right? I mean, in reality. Silly question.

Then, again. I wonder? On a day to day basis, does it really matter so much? In fact, the more you winnow it down the less it means. Hour to hour, you aren't even thinking about it.

If you don't have money, you don't spend it. So your car goes a little longer without oil changes, you live with two lightbulbs in your lamp instead of three, your shoes get more scuffed.

If you have money, you do the oil change, you have all three lightbulbs, and your shoes are maybe a little less worn. So does that really affect the quality of your life that much? Life is a process of entropy. Everything you buy new gets older, starts to fall apart. It's just a matter of how far along the cycle of decay you are, and, really, most of the time, a car that has lost half its value drives just as well as a car that's lost a quarter its value or three quarters of its value.

Really, on a moment to moment basis, does it make that much difference?

The third option, having money and not spending it, has even less effect. Maybe a little peace of mind, but even there -- hey, now you have something to worry about losing....

O.K. I'm not delusional. I know it makes a difference.

But sometimes, I wonder if it really makes a huge difference UNLESS you have lots and lots of money; or conversely, very, very little money.

For instance, you live in a house that's: a.) mortgaged to the hilt; b.) paid off; c.) a rental.
Hey, you're living in that house, and you're not thinking about whether it's partially paid or fully paid on a moment to moment basis. You're reading, or fixing dinner, or watching T.V. or whatever.

Money probably makes the biggest difference on the extremes. Not having money to pay bills, obviously, is a very big thing. Or having the money to buy anything you want, that would be a pretty big deal.

But for most of us, muddling through life? Our quality of life, our mood, our attitudes -- are going to be affected in subtle ways. Or in ways that you can't point to any one moment in time. Getting preventative health care, for instance, or a well-maintained car -- you don't really notice the problems you don't have, you know.

Maybe it's just me. Maybe I have low expectations. Having a big house, a fancy car, doesn't impress me all that much.

Pretty muddled post, I know. I understand that money makes a huge difference in people's lives...but for most of us, in the middle -- assuming you have enough, whatever that is, and that's a huge assumption -- I wonder if it makes as much difference as all that.

The Wheels of Justice....

....grind slowly, but exceedingly fine.

The Sawyers will face their day in court.

This is the second time I've seen this kind of slow, but inexorable process. The first time was the Rajneesh and his merry pink band of co-conspirators, who seemed to get away with their shenanigans for a long time.

I'm still hoping we'll see the same thing on Wall Street eventually. Probably a forlorn hope.

**********

First new building downtown in years? Next to the Deschutes Brewery.

Yes....but it replaces a building that was torn down, so not really a net gain. Better than a pile of rubble, though.

**********

Has it finally happened? Has my ordering process finally caught up to my sales level? And vice versa?

It's been almost a full month, and the flow of material seems exactly right. Roughly speaking, I have set amounts to spend on games and books, twice a month. A set amount to spend with Diamond reorders, once a week. And a set amount to spend on everything else, once a month.

So far, I've had no spot shortages -- which are always the bane of my existence. Forcing me to make early orders, which then have to be big enough to meet shipping minimums -- or to face running out of some of my best-selling material.

But at least so far this new ordering systems seems to be avoiding the -- ordering too much this week, then having to lay off for a month, then ordering too little and having to order way more and so on. Whiplash.

Never say forever, but this seems to be working really well, right now.

**********

When the Great Recession started, there was some trepidation that we would see a crime wave, but it never seemed to happen.

Is the wave of weird violence we've seen in the last couple weeks a new trend? Or just one of those things?

***********

If all the furniture stores are going to emblazon SALE!!! 50% to 75% OFF!!! on a daily basis -- then, I'm sorry, 75% off is the regular price.

But they've muddied the waters so much, who the hell knows? Doesn't exactly make me feel secure in my spending decisions....

We're in the market for a futon, and frankly, I think I might feel safer spending my money at Sears, or someplace like that.

***********

Downtown Comings and Goings.

Read in the Source that Lola's had closed. And Diana's Jewell Box seemed to disappear last week.

I've heard of at least three new stores opening soon, but don't know their names.

Kind of a missed marketing opportunity, don't you think? Nothing creates curiosity as much as butcher paper in the windows. Might as well capitalize on that by putting a sign in the window, right?

So the crazy churn downtown continues. Except that I don't know that it's any more churn than is normal, because I have nothing to compare it to. Someday, this little list is going to be a good resource for someone like me.

NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Urban Minx, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(Fall, 2008 or so.)

Financial gerrymandering.

One thing to remember. Public entities have to report real numbers. They can do a little financial gerrymandering, but not much.

Corporations also must report numbers, though they can do much more gerrymandering, at least in the short run.

Small private businesses don't have to tell you folks nuttin'. (Nor should we.)

But it's something to take into account every time there is a glowing report of a local business opening or expanding or moving. What I'm saying is -- you really don't know what's going on behind the scenes.

Nor do I.

When I look at my own numbers, I combine them with anecdotal evidence, see what the Big Boys are doing (and try to cut through the fog of numbers) and add to that what's reported public revenues are, and I think I'm getting at least a whiff of reality. (Reality stinks...)

Anecdotal evidence -- which is what most of us have with small business -- is also the least reliable. As I've mentioned before, as much as it drives me crazy, a small business has little choice but to be vaguely positive when things are neutral or below, and insanely optimistic when things are going well.

Plus, I'm a great believer in the 80/20 rule, and there is always a one in five chance that you're asking one of the 20% of stores that are doing well even in the worst of times. In fact, chances are pretty good, because they're the ones actually talking about it.

I suppose I could make the case that it doesn't matter how everyone else is doing. It only matter how I'm doing.

But I think it's important to have a reality based view -- a way of checking your performance, both good and bad. And to look for reasons as to why you might be doing better or might be doing worse, than the other guys.

Plus -- I like to check my own analysis and observations against what actually happens -- which gives me more confidence in predicting my own business results.

Personally, I think the local economy has taken another leg down -- despite the ever-opening businesses downtown. It is official -- comic sales were down 12% last quarter, which confirms my own observations -- but I also think I'm seeing less local businesses, and less tourist spending.

So I'm expecting the first 6 months of next year to be tight -- as usual, but maybe a bit more than usual.

If it snows, we're screwed.

Read the article on Bend's budget shortfall with great interest.

A few things seem obvious and have been stated before:

1.) This slowdown isn't over and is probably going to get worse, and at best isn't going to get better anytime soon.

2.) The time to pay for growth is while the growth is happening, not after it's over. If charging more fees had actually slowed the growth -- shrunk the bubble, if you will -- would that have been such a bad thing? One third less growth, paid for one third more solidly? (Ironically, the building trade would STILL like fees lowered -- you know -- to encourage more building. Because -- you know -- we need more houses...)

3.) When you plan for things like Juniper Ridge and BAT, you should allow for the possibility of recessions. As a small business owner, I've been in the position of owning four stores when business fell off, and strategically retreating back to three stores, then two stores, then one store.

Overextending is a classic mistake. Bend took way too long to admit its mistake.

4.) I believe this will be a El Nino winter, which usually results in way more snow than normal. These comments were a little alarming, if you are Murphy's Law proponent:

"The city has already deferred about $12 million in street maintenance..."

and

"A dollar you don't spend today becomes four dollars you have to spend tomorrow...."

There was no mention of Juniper Ridge, at all. Which, every time I drive by gives off the whiff of decayed aspirations.

There was an offhand mention of BAT: "...the city"...."had to provide services, like transit...."
Well, no. That was a self inflicted wound. We may have to ask ourselves the question: would we rather have mostly empty buses trundling around town -- or a policeman who can show up at our door soon enough to actually help us with a problem?

The article did point out one ameliorating factor that I'd never known about: Bend was unlucky enough to have relatively low property prices when the property taxes were frozen. The explosive growth and price increases haven't brought in the revenues they would have in Beaverton or Medford.

Unintended consequences like these might be a good argument against Initiative Measures that LOCK-IN solutions and don't allow for flexibility or future changes. (Mandatory sentences, for instance.)

Next car you buy, get four wheel drive, because you're going to need it.

Vole Patrol

Panga deposited another vole on the front steps.

She's all charged up again. Usually we can barely get her out of the house, usually just long enough to poop, and then she's back on the couch. (She takes one end of the couch and I take the other -- as long as I don't move my feet around too much, she won't attack them...)

But every time she has one of these hunter's moments, she'll stay outside for hours. Linda calls it "Vole Patrol."

I've taken to calling her -- the Vole-ciraptor.

**********

Linda and I went to see Red, since it's based on a graphic novel.

Every time John Malkovich was on the screen I was laughing -- kind of embarrassing to be belly laughing when no one else in the theater is, but I couldn't help it. Just his double takes had me rolling in the aisle. Part of me was thinking, 'This really isn't that funny..." and part of me was laughing because I thought it was...

"He's CRAZY!"

"They secretly dosed him with LSD every day for 11 years...."

"Oh......well, he's doing pretty good, then."

Sometime they ought to make a movie with Malkovich, Gary Oldman and Christopher Walken (anyone else)? I'd pay to see that.

**********

After the movie, we went for a drive and ended up outside Terrebonne at a place called Borden Beck Wildlife Refuge.

I'm not sure I knew this place was there. We were just driving down country roads, marveling at some of the mansions on the hills, and the shacks on the flats.

It seems to me-- vague memory-- that there was an old, historic house on that stretch of the river at one time. But maybe I'm thinking of another place.

We followed the trail along the river to the end. A couple of grassy banks, and beautiful rock outcroppings, and lots of critters -- gorgeous day and a soft dry place to lay on the river bank and listen to the burbling and the crickets and the birds.

**********

Been having vivid dreams. Lately of big houses or buildings with lots of secret rooms and corridors....

Linda says it's because I'm opening up to new parts of my consciousness.

Either that or I'm just Being John Malkovich....

***********

"Mental Health Facility Set to Open...."

From reading about all the crazy stuff going on around here, I think we need it....

**********

I enjoy watching Antiques Roadshow, but I also think it's a whole lot of hoooey. A bunch of nonsense.

I'll refrain from calling it a fraudulent enterprise, but in those areas that I have some expertise -- comics and cards -- I think they're Wildly Overpriced.

I wish they'd be put to the test.

"Babe Ruth signed baseball is worth $8,000.00? Great! Prove it by buying it from me for $4,000.00, right now. Hey....what are you hemming and hawing about? Wait....where are you going? Come back here!"

Surviving mistakes.

You know, there just isn't much money in comics.

I totally overcompensate by having a huge inventory of graphic novels. I've refined my ordering to a careful art.

But mostly, I've learned to carry a lot of other product.

Sometimes I wonder if -- knowing what I now know -- if I would still buy Pegasus Books. Remembering all the mistakes I made.

I doubt in the current comic world that I would've survived the mistakes I made back then. It's a very different atmosphere, today, and I'm not just talking about the Great Recession. Comics were a relatively inexpensive product back then, and I could afford to make missteps.

Now? Just to get started I'd have to take so many chances that I'd almost be guaranteed to fall down, no matter how much I tried, no matter how smart I was.

To get to where the store is today was a long and winding thirty year road, with lots of hills and valleys and steep turns. I've arrived at a store that works, but only because I survived all the intermediate steps.

First of all, it's less possible today to make a living in comics. Cost of inventory, cost of overhead, and ever dwindling audience make the size of town needed to succeed ever larger. I'm guessing you need (at least) 150K population base now, up from 100K say five years ago, up from 75K ten years ago, 50K fifteen years ago, 30K twenty years ago, and 20K twenty-five years ago.

(It would help to actually have a cross fertilized urban culture, instead of an isolated faux urban culture. It would help to have a real four year university. It would help to an interstate, and a major industry and -- well, just not be so isolated.)

Which more or less parallels exactly what happened in Bend. The percent I need to make it has always been covered more or less by comics to about 65%. I need 35% from something else, and that seems to have always been true. That's just to survive. I find that having comics be 50% of my sales actually means the store makes a bit of profit.

But even that doesn't quite cover it. I can survive today because downtown Bend has revived, because I've got a fully developed store, because I've melded together an array of product lines, and -- because I've become a very experienced and savvy operator.

Just like Linda's store wouldn't be the success it is today without all the previous experiences -- which didn't always pan out -- I doubt Pegasus Books would work today without all the previous successes and failures.

Even then, I doubt if I had to start from scratch today that I could make a comic shop work in Bend -- even with all my experience and canny instincts.

I'm not sure I'd try. Linda's store has been a bigger success, despite being only one fourth as old. Why? Because books are a 25 billion dollar industry, versus a comic industry that is 1/40th the size. Even with all the competition -- even with Amazon and B & N and Borders and Costco and Wallmart and I-pad and Kindle -- there is more of an audience to draw from.

My rather large inventory simply wouldn't be possible to start out with. I couldn't afford it and it probably wouldn't be cost effective. And yet, at the same time, I'm only surviving because I have such a large inventory. I've been able to snatch sales and product in an opportunistic way for years now. I couldn't simply go out and replicate it.

If I had to give a new businessman advice, it would be:

First, to pick an industry that has potential for growth, and pick a city that is large enough. The inclination on the part of many small businesses is to pick a product that is so specialized that the Big Boys aren't doing it, and that doesn't have competition. Well, there is almost always a reason for that.

There is also the temptation to pick a small population area, again because there isn't any competition -- and again, there is almost always a reason for that.

Besides, it actually doesn't preclude competition at all -- in fact, contrary as it may seem, I tend to see more competition with more specialized product and in smaller towns....

I think it is better to start with a very small sliver of a very large potential customer base, than a huge slice of a small potential customer base. In the latter, if you do a good job and get almost all the potential customers you still hit a glass ceiling. Whereas in the former, the better job you do the more market share you'll garner, and the sky's the limit.

Secondly, the margins are always going to be very slim in any small business. If the margin is big enough to enrich you, someone will come along and competitively cut the margin. If the margin is too small, you won't be able to pay your bills. That balance point is always going to be razor thin.

In a world where monopolies are illegal and exclusives are slippery, you will always have competition.

So if you have to live on small margins, you'd better be willing to live modestly. Or start getting a whole lot bigger so that the small margin actually amounts to something.

How much?

I got word that a store in another nearby town is going to start carrying comics.

Now, ordinarily I wouldn't comment on competition, but there were a couple of things about this that I thought interesting.

My second blog entry today will be about all the mistakes I've made over the years, and how I'm not sure I could do the same thing today and still survive. The comic business has become much more expensive.

Anyway, to start. My reaction was mild. I've found that competition usually doesn't have as big an effect as I fear, or the lack of competition as big a benefit as I hope.

Secondly, it's far enough away that it will have even less impact. Really, any store more than 20 miles away is probably not going to encroach on my territory.

Third, we all have to live by the same rules -- margins, overhead, location. Much will depend on how much space and money they're willing to devote.

So I was kind of shrugging it off, my informant told me how much the other store ordered up front.

I kind of just stared at him. "How much?"

The guy repeated the figure, and I sort of just winced, "He might want to scale down his expectations," I muttered.

O.K. A couple of things. I started crunching numbers. In order to get a minimal 50% discount from Marvel and DC, the other store will have to order fairly large numbers --every month.

So, while the other store will need to build inventory, they'd be better off doing it on a monthly basis because they are going to have a hard time selling enough monthly comics to meet the minimums at first-- unless I miss my guess.

So the figure wasn't over-the-top if it was an investment -- that is, beginning stock. But you can't sell stock and still have stock. The other store will still have to overlay a monthly amount of comics that is going to be hard to reach.

But the really interesting part was that that the competitor thought he was going to order this stuff on credit.

"Really?" I asked. "Did they give him credit?"

"No."

Here's the thing. I don't think Diamond Comics would give credit to the Queen of England if she got a sudden hankering for Incredible Hulk comics. They probably say, "Try them for a few months, Queenie, and see if you like them...."

Not only will they probably get C.O.D. terms, but they may very well get Cash C.O.D. terms. Diamond doesn't take a whole lot of chances these days.

These days I just sort of step back and watch with some bemusement when I see competitors open. Good luck.

YEA! Comics are getting cheaper!

Before I go any further and muddy the waters with all the ifs, ands or buts, I first want to let out a big Three Cheers for cheaper comics:

Hurrah! Hurrah!! Hurrah!!!

DC is going back to 2.99 pricing, down from 3.99; and I believe that Marvel will be forced to follow suit through competitive pressures (they announced that "Some" comics, "Some" #1's would go down in price, but weren't very clear.)

Whatever the effects in the short term, and there may be some negative effects on our margins and so on, I do believe this is a great move.

I'm looking forward to telling all my customers that the product they love is actually going DOWN in price.

Ya HOOOOO!



Meanwhile, though, a little undercurrent -- about how the ground beneath us has slowly been getting slippery.

So comic sales have been tanking nationally without anyone noticing?

Well, of course, we all noticed. There was the usual low level grumbling on the part of the retailers; the normal dire reporting of ever dropping sales.

As someone once pointed out -- comics have been dying since the year they were created.

Now Marvel and especially DC have taken the extraordinary step of LOWERING cover prices. A rare event, to say the least.

For most of my career, comic publishers have been following (albeit at a slower pace) -- the self destructive path I saw in sports cards. As unit sales drop, prices go up, disguising the basic weakness of the hobby.

Eventually, you get to an extraordinarily dunderheaded strategy of charging 10 dollars for a pack of cards, which contain a total of 3 cards. Or a box with a single pack and the single pack has a single card with an autograph and it costs 100.00 or something ridiculous.

What did they think was going to happen?

People have been calling for lower card prices for years, and they'd throw out an occasional cheap brand, but over all, the prices just kept going up. To the point where, in my opinion, sports cards are permanently dysfunctional.

(They'd offer lower prices on a brand or two, but the customers always reacted by calling them "Cheap." Sigh. Sometimes you can't win.)

With the Big Two lowering their prices, the overall comic industry may be taking a step back from the brink.

I totally think it's the right move. Being able to walk out the door with 3 or 4 comics for 10.00 is a much more 'satisfying chunk' than walking out the door with 2 comics and a little change. I think it's a great move that it is the Entire Line of comics, and hopefully Marvel will follow, and since Marvel and DC represent about 75% of the comics sold, it will be more or less an industry wide change for the better.

So why are they doing it?

I think that the situation was worse than anyone was willing to admit.

So while they were reporting that the best-selling comics had dropped below 100k -- a number that once would've gotten a title canceled -- none of us retailers were getting the overall numbers. Marvel and DC on the other hand, have probably seen numbers of two to three months worth of orders that we haven't gotten news of yet, and combined with summer orders, I'm betting it was a troubling trend.

We retailers could always believe that we were making up ground with more titles, or with graphic novels, or whatever.

(In my particular case, the true situation was probably obscured by the fact that I was in the process of bringing new product lines. Well, not obscured -- that's WHY I was bringing in new product lines, after all. But not at the forefront of my attention.)

Which had to be dire, I think. For DC and Marvel to take this step.

After the fact, I can see that while my comic sales have been holding steady -- if prices have been going up a dollar a unit, that might not actually be that terrific a result. Again, it was somewhat obscured by the rather large elephant in the room: The Great Recession. If sales are falling somewhat, who could be surprised?

Sure, on a common sense level, it seemed crazy that Marvel and DC would raise prices so substantially. But I watched my customers carefully, and they weren't dropping titles in a precipitous way; in hindsight, they just weren't willing to pick up many of the newer titles.

In fact, on their own, very few titles were being added to the subscription lists, and I was in a strange position of having to order titles FOR my customers that I thought they MIGHT like and taking the chance of putting it on their shelves without them asking and HOPING they might buy it, which fortunately they did more often than not. But that's a pretty strange way to run a business.

Anyway -- the actual point of this entry is to complain about the basic lack of communication between retailers.

I belong to a bulletin board that has a members some of the most advanced and forward thinking comic retailers in the country. But all I heard out of them over the last couple of years was the above mentioned "low level grumbling." In fact, some of the bigger retailers have a tendency to crow about how "great" they're doing.

There were some exceptions. Brian Hibbs in San Fransisco was sounding a warning a few months ago.

But overall, you'd have thought things were just running along at the usual dysfunctional comic level we're all so used to.

Like I said, I decided a long time ago that much as I appreciate comics, and the solid grounding they give my business, I really needed to diversify as much as possible.

So -- after Marvel and DC have thrown in the towel -- obviously they had access to REAL sales statistics that must have scared them to death -- NOW, my fellow comic retailers aren't so much admitting that comic sales have sucked, as taking that fact as a GIVEN. Oh, yeah. Sales have sucked. This price lowering really needed to be done.

Now, they tell me.

I know that there isn't any way around this disconnect. All of us retailers have learned that you can't tell people if you are doing super well, and you don't dare tell people if you are doing poorly, and so everyone settles for the doing All Right or O.K. or Better Than I Expected, or whatever else non revealing phrase they can come up with.

Including me, though I'm inclined to be a bit more forthcoming than most of my brethren.

Go Ducks!

Go Ducks Part II.

We're #1! We're #1!

Oregon played a perfect defensive game yesterday. They didn't allow a single point; not even a first down; hell, not a single yard. Come to think of it, they didn't let the opposing team in the stadium!

I do believe this will be the first time Oregon has been #1 in my lifetime. I remember when they were thinking of dropping Oregon and Oregon State out of the Pac-10 altogether because they were so uncompetitive.

The only college footballs games I have ever been to were at Autzen Stadium. I'm a Duck, I suppose, technically. Though never much of a rooter. I guess this makes me a fair-weather rooter.

Best scenario would've been to get to #1 one on the last game of the year, but what the hay. Now we've got a big target on our back, especially to the Beavs, who have had a hellacious schedule this year.

(I know, I know...another content free entry -- but no one reads blogs on Sunday anyway.)