Lab Rats for the Trickle Down Theory.

I think Bend is becoming the lab rat of the trickle down theory.

There's always been a bit of disconnect between what I see in the West Hills of Bend, and what I see in my store. The kinds of customers I see and how much they are willing to spend versus the kinds of customers my neighbor stores in downtown Bend are obviously trying to attract.

I believe that the vast majority of my customers are solidly middle class, or young enough that they haven't really settled into an income range. If any of them are wealthy, they manage to hide it well. And if the people buying games and books from me are wealthy, it doesn't seem to matter because they seem to buy moderate amounts at any rate.

I had an obviously wealthy guy in the store on Friday, who had a son in the bike race, who was talking about buying a second home in Bend. He left without buying anything. On the other hand, he mentioned he was staying at the Oxford, and obviously he was eating while he was here and so on. So some of that money may trickle down, right?

Or when Linda and I went to visit Pronghorn and weren't allowed in by a young guy with a clipboard. That young guy was getting a moderate wage, no doubt.

But I'm kind of seeing downtown and parts of the West Hills as islands of wealth, surrounded by sagebrush and juniper. Oasis's amongst the hardscrabble regular folk.

What isn't clear is how these can co-exist, and maintain any cohesion. There's a middle connecting part missing; or shrinking, and the gulf seems to be getting wider. We may get away with it from a influx of middle class retires, but these folk aren't known for their spending. We may get away with it from the health, government, and school type incomes. Though these are shrinking.

Our hope, I suppose, is that we'll get viable high tech jobs. But we're in for the fight of our lives to get those people to move here, when absolutely every other municipality is wanting the same people. Obviously it's harder with the higher cost of living, the lower wages, the lack of flights to big cities, the lack of a (real) four year college, the lack of an interstate. The overall isolation and skewed demographics.

I wish we could have saved a more diverse mix of stores downtown; instead of mostly jewelry, art galleries, high end clothing, and fine dining. I wish we could have saved a bit of the funk.
One of the cool things that happened during the revival of downtown in the late 80's and early 90's was what a strange brew it was. That has been filtered out, little by little.

Well, maybe I'm being provincial by using my own store as a gauge, but I've mentioned before, I don't see that 'rich' people spend any more than average middle class people. In fact, to me it seems like they actually spend less. I have to take it on faith they they are really splurging in the art galleries and jewelry stores and restaurants.

In the Garden, Pt. 2.

Why do I think of swimming,
when I'm in my garden?
And toy soldiers?
And The Lord of the Rings?

I think of my mother,
which is right, and my sister
and all that is gone.

I think of my childhood,
trailing fingers in the dirt,
of lying on my back,
staring at the clouds.

Wishing my wife would join me,
and here she is, with a cheerful,
"Watcha doin'?"

What more could I want?
Except all were here to enjoy it
with me,
my younger self,
my gardening mother,
my sister so full of life,
and wishing it came earlier,
and glad it came at all.

"In the Garden."

In the Garden.

Controversy awaits,
in my darkened room,
darkened mood, for
saying what I think.

In the garden, the buzzing
bees,
the dove's owl-like coo,
peaceful and quiet.

Enter the world....

Or leave the world,
to those who know better.

Decades now, in the world,
watching them come and go,
those who know better.

The flowers are near bloom,
an explosion awaits,
of smell and color.

In the darkened room,
my opinions await, and yet,
I'm drawn to state,
what I "Think" is truth.

But the sunlight doesn't care
and the garden awaits unknowing.

The last funky space.

We left the Pegasus Books "Sale" table out overnight. There was enough money for 3 books on the table in the morning, and someone brought in .50 later in the day.

Hmmmm. Maybe I should leave it out by mistake every night!

**********

Not to pick on CACB, but since no one else has mentioned it: the stock dropped to a new low of .46 Friday...so even a stock doubling wouldn't get them to 1.00.

**********

In talking about Staccato closing, John Stearns of the Bulletin makes a pretty good case for what I call "The Beautiful Corpse" scenario.

Downtown has been "failing upward" for years now, (get it, "failing upward, not falling upward"): As rents increased only wealthier stores could move in, who would then fix up the spaces, but who would then have to pay for the improvements and startup costs and high rent at the same time.

Ultimately, when they fail, the next guy in line gets a much improved space for lower rent.

I'm beginning to think I'm the last unrenovated space in downtown; I can't afford to close and move everything out and completely redo the space. I still have my old-fashioned lights. I did replace the carpet at one point, and I've painted the walls a few times.

But whoever ends up in my space years from now is going to get a "worn out and looking it's years and he lived a full life" space. Only the good die young.

***********

So my former competitor Brad Irwin has gone from selling games, to hosting poker tournaments, to distilling "spirits." Intriguing career arc.

**********

Interesting article "Taking the Leap to Self-Employment." I have trouble agreeing with this statement, however: "At first, the actual business may be secondary because you will need to devote most of your time to marketing."

Not with a storefront, you don't. I realize they are talking about all kinds of self-employment, but this idea of 'marketing above all' is why I think the a second paragraph in the story is true:
"Half of all startups fail with the first five years."

My advice for a storefront is pick "location, location, location" as your marketing, then work your ass off to work your store and fill it with product. You know, the nuts and bolts. Start small enough with low enough overhead that you can grow your business.

Otherwise, my question is -- "Promote WHAT?"

***********

My peonies and poppies and half the other plants in my garden stubbornly refuse to bloom. They've got enormous buds -- fat, healthy looking buds -- but they won't open.

Then again, I brought my shorts and sandals out from the closest yesterday for the first time this year...

**********

For fun last night, I watched my wife Linda watching a author on Book T.V. (yes, that's fun for us, pretty pathetic.) I knew the author was extremely right wing, but he also is the most 'reasonable' sounding guy you ever heard.

I waited for it to dawn on her that the guy was saying exactly the opposite of what she believes.

When she finally realized it, I laughed. "Yeah, he sucked me in once, too."

You can say the most outrageous things, if you say them in a reasonable and measured manner...

********

H. Bruce made his usual yearly comment in the Wandering Eye blog about my usual yearly 'rant' about street closures.

Actually, I realize that I can't change any of this; so I've been pretty good at avoiding these events altogether and putting my employees in the stores on these days. That way, I don't have to be exposed.

What caught me off guard was that it was a Friday, my regularly scheduled day, and that one of my employees is on vacation making more work for the other guys and I didn't feel I could leave.

Of course, this moving into Fridays is a new thing. Cascade Criterion used to be called the 'Twilight' race, because it didn't take place until after store closing. This last Friday's race was completely new last year.

I figure I'll probably have retired by the time they start closing on Thursdays or Mondays....Tuesdays and Wednesdays...

Oh, hell. What do we need stores for? They just get in the way of all the fun...

***********

On being self-sufficient.

You know, I always sort of thought that was the point of owning your own business. You make the decisions, you take the consequences. It's all yours. Ultimately, it comes back to you -- both success and failure.

I'm O.K. with that.

There was a time after the sports card bubble, around 1992, when I was so broke and disgusted I was ready to quit. And I realized that while some people would be sad, and some others would cry crocodile tears, and in a few cases some would actually be happy -- they'd all get over it pretty quick and get on with their lives.

It concentrated the mind, wonderfully. I had to figure a way through it -- I had to make decisions that were in the best interests of me and my family.

There is a tendency, I think, for some of us to think we're somehow providing a public service, and while that can be true, the real reason we are in business is to earn money. Nothing beats the profit motive for motivation. Nothing.

You can't do anyone any good if you can't survive.

I have a couple of corollaries to this notion: Even if you try your best to earn a profit, you often won't. I can almost guarantee you that if you don't set out to earn a profit, you will lose money. And secondly, no one will run a business for very long without earning a profit, no matter how wealthy they are, no matter how much they maintain they "don't need the money."

The work is just too hard and stressful to be treated as a hobby. There is too much risk -- and while you may truly think you "don't need the money" no one likes losing money, which is what will happen.

You want a hobby? Take up painting, or biking, or something.

Opening "Street Closure" Season.

At about 2:00 this afternoon, I will grab the BLACK BOOK, and try to get across the street against the biker flow, and leave the store for the weekend in the hands of the cheerful young fellows who work for me.

I'll mow the lawn, dink around the garden, then settle down with the BLACK BOOK (I always intone that) to do my monthly orders.

I was not going to say anything about street closures this year; because it's a no win situation. "That which you can't change....blah, blah."

So for 3/4ths of the next six weeks or so -- the very meat of summer -- we will have closed streets on the weekend. It appears there is a new event tacked on, as well as the bike race today which was a new event last year. (I could swear they said they weren't going to add new events.)

Oh, well. The majority of the downtown retailers seem to like these events; or at least acquiesce to them.

So be it.

Want a meal with that room?

Gee, my reading of the Source's article on room taxes is that the city staff blew it about 10 years ago, and the hotels have been taking advantage of it ever since.

Surprise #1: The city staff made a mistake.

Surprise #2: The Hotel owners took advantage of it.

Surprise #3: The City is now in dire need of money, and wants their money.

Surprise #4: The Hotel owners are squawking.

Yes, we have no shrimps.

Bourbon Street.

Interesting timing for a Cajun restaurant. There's an article in the USA Today about how the raw material for these kinds of eateries is disappearing. Prices going up.

"Gulf Spill Takes Bite out of Restaurants."

"As the ruptured BP well spews oil into the Gulf of Mexico, seafood restaurants nationwide are rewriting menus to cope with volatile prices and spot shortages for shrimp, oyster and crab. Some menu items, such as Gulf oysters, may disappear entirely. Other restaurants may import seafood to fill in the holes. Prices for harder-to-find foods may increase, and portions may shrink."

**********

We have a couple of bluejays who are hounding our cat night and day. I'm worried that they're getting a little too bold. Our cat is fat, but she can move surprisingly fast. The cat was on the couch the other day, when Linda heard an unholy racket, she went upstairs to find the male bluejay perched on the kitchen island screaming at Panga, who was trying to ignore him.

It's pretty much a constant bawling out, anytime the cat nears the screen door.

**********

I've lost about 6 pounds this month, about 2 pounds a week, by cutting back to 1500 caleries a day. My trick is that I just don't eat much of anything the first half of the day, and then eat almost normal (minus treats) the rest of the day. I know there are all kinds of things wrong with that approach, but it works for me....

I look the same, whether I'm 25 pounds heavier or not -- but it usually gets to a point where I don't like the feel of it. So I'm just going to follow through for the rest of the summer; 18 pounds or so.

**********

As often happens, I'm being disciplined about my diet and my budget at the same time. The cutting back frame of mind just seems to extend into all areas of my life.

Anyway, I'm finding that I'm just not getting as many deals on the liquidations that I thought I would. Turns out, I was ordering stuff that was only discounted 10% or so, and my new standards are deeper than that; turns out, there aren't a whole lot of items offered at my new standards.

**********

Sales haven't really picked up. I mean, slightly. But not the big boost I'm always hoping for in the summer. It's more a matter of how much I'll make -- we're in really good shape. Bills paid, credit cards zeroed out.

Still....I wouldn't mind seeing an increase in sales.

I have to remind myself of what I told myself going into this: It takes a whole lot longer to come back to normal than you think. So much longer, actually, that it usually doesn't happen until you've given up on your hope, and adjusted to a lower standard, and forgotten about it...

Which is a long time. I think that's what I should expect to happen this time, too.

My looking for an increase on the upside, is just residual optimism. I can't help it.

"Your growth is typical, minus construction."

The quote above was into today's Bulletin article: "With fewer seasonal jobs, region sees unemployment rates creep upward."

Combine that with the national news: "New Home sales plunge 33%." and "Sales of existing homes fell in May."

So the "minus construction" part of the equation is unlikely to change anytime soon. Even a year ago, Bend had some major commercial construction jobs being finished up, but those appear to be over.

What we have are: "accommodation and food services" jobs; you know, waiters, cooks, maids, clerks, etc. etc.

***********

Meanwhile, for those who aren't paying attention. Cascade Bancorp is fighting to keep their Nasdaq listing, by having a reverse stock split. Again, I have a simple question. How does this address the fundamental problems? It seem like merely a trick.

Anyway, some of the stockholders apparently didn't care for it at all, and CACB's stock dropped nearly 12% yesterday...

**********

How do I get one of these fancy "consultant" jobs?

From the 10/23/10 Bulletin. "Deschutes County needs strategic epicenter, consultant says: A four-year university, an innovation epicenter to commercialize research, a friendlier regulatory environment for businesses and more outgoing people."

Also, lots of free money.

And rich people.

Um.....Disneyland, maybe. Harry Potter Theme Park?

And as well as more outgoing, we need smarter, hard working, honest, oh, the hell with it:

On my honor, I will do my best
To do my duty to God and my Country and to obey the Scout Law;
To help other people at all times;
To keep myself physically strong, mentally awake, and morally straight.


As long as you're paying me a consulting fee, I should mention I'd like mostly good-looking and healthy types, well-educated and read, and socially, politically and culturally active.

Can I have my money now?

Downtown Openings and Closings.

I went ahead and added a couple of new businesses. Bourbon St. is offering a coupon, so you'd think they are real. Feather's Edge, I've only heard the name and that it's in my building, but I don't know what it is...

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Bourbon Street, Minnesota St., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota St., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Jonah Hex

I've been telling my customers that I thought Jonah Hex might be all right -- as long as they didn't go Wild, Wild Westish.

What did they go and do? Yep. Steam punk, mixed with a bit of supernatural, like Constantine (another comic character the movies messed with.)

My theory is -- the more faithful a movie is to the original comic material, the better the movie. I read the first 15 issues of Jonah Hex, and it was mostly a revenge western. I don't remember the supernatural elements, nor the steam punk elements. They might have been there, but it wasn't the focus. Nor was it the focus of the older comics, if I'm remembering rightly.

Now I like steam punk, but it doesn't mix that well with Westerns, most of the time.

I had more in mind -- Clint Eastwood. Let's see, let's compare a couple of modern Westerns; Unforgiven, and Wild, Wild West. One is an artistic and commercial success, and one is a huge flop. Which example did Jonah Hex follow?

Megan Fox is gorgeous to look at, though uncomfortably dewy. She needs some voice lessons to put some life into her lines -- she needs acting lessons, though they weren't much needed in this movie.

Oh, and Malkovich? He's reached that point in his career where he can make good money as the spectacularly florid villain. Read them quirky lines, baby! It's like a pension plan for great character actors -- Walken, Oldman, and the late great Dennis Hopper.

I don't know, I think I would've taken the special effects budget, and instead spent it on vast, arid panoramas and straight ahead gunfights and, well, done a Western. With a guy with a disfigured face.

Finally, I can never talk about Jonah Hex without my favorite story. When the original series was canceled back in the 70's (80's?) the writers were so pissed off, that they killed Jonah Hex. They had him stuffed, and put into a carnival.

Efficient, my ass.

So my first invoice for the July billing period comes in at TWICE the average, or three times what I originally ordered (with reorders.) Garrrrrrrr.

Kind of like starting off a diet by gaining 5 pounds. It's kind of deflating.

I'm trying to use it as a motivator to get even more serious about budgeting.

Anyway, the rest of this post is pretty inside baseball business stuff....



This outsized invoice is why, folks, I find myself needing to order for the low end of the spectrum instead of the high end of the spectrum. I could maximize my sales if I could get an even flow of product, matching sales -- to cashflow -- to orders.

But, no. The producers and distributors seem incapable of delivering on time and as promised.

So I'm more or less forced to accept negative cash flow positions, or make my pre-orders as small as possible. I hate that I have to choose the lowest common denominator.

Wait, you say. Won't it all even out in the long run?

With dated material, that's not the way it really works. I sell the vast majority of my product on the week to ten days after it arrives. I am going to average a certain moderate level of sales, no matter how much stuff comes in. Getting twice the material doesn't mean I'll sell twice as much stuff, and getting half the material doesn't mean I'll sell more of the last overflow.

I don't think the producers and distributors fully understand how they limit their own sales to the retailers -- at least, surviving retailers.

The temptation is to order at the highest average, and accept the occasional double and triple week, and figure that I'll maximize the sales. And so I may. For weeks, months, or years.

But it is the equivalent of gambling, and inevitably, some season down the road, I'll get four or five huge ordering weeks in a row, and four or five bad sales weeks in a row, and I'll pile up the red ink before I can change course. (I normally order up to 3 months in advance -- on the stuff that actually can be predicted. The other stuff -- anywhere from 3 months to 2 YEARS>)

So, I'm a guy who actually has ordered with blowouts in mind. And I still get the occasional blowout weeks. If I was actually ordering at some high average, this weeks order would have been cripplingly large. Simply put, getting twice (or triple -- or quadruple) the material might increase sales 5 or 10 or even 20%, but it won't double. And if the next week is half as much, it doesn't mean the previous weeks material will sell instead.

I've long ago adapted by making half of my orders,-- reorders. That is, I reorder half of my inventory after the release date. By getting 3 times the material I really need this week, it means that my reorders will be small or nil over the next couple of weeks to compensate. Which means that I'll have spot shortages on significant evergreen material, because Marvel, and DC, and Diamond can't be bothered to deliver their product in a timely manner.

Product dumps, usually on the last week of the month, are a constant problem in this industry, and the retailers have been quite clear about this. (Retailers managed to get a stopgap measure of being able to return "late" material if it extends into a third month. The unintended consequence is that the last week of every month is the last chance by many publishers to avoid that penalty. )

And the problem has gotten only worse.

During convention season, it becomes even more of a problem, as comic publishers hold back and release all their "New" shiny special stuff around time of the San Diego Con. Game distributors wait for the big game conventions.

I can't understand why Diamond can't assign a traffic manager, who will enforce an even flow of material. It might mean holding back on some material, (and it might mean that publishers will be forced to allow returns, but that's only fair) , but as long as everyone gets it at the same time, I'd prefer that solution to these periodic blowouts.

I always get a hoot out of people saying big business is "efficient." From my experience, the bigger the business, the LESS efficient it is.

Whimpering out.

Oh, the mighty roars of the iconoclasts. Bend is doomed! Doomed I tell you! Everyone who disagrees is an idiot! You'll see! Yoooouuu'lllll see! Just wait! ( Circa 2007.)

And then silence.

Thing is, most of those predictions were right.

H. Bruce has a column about the migration flows as of 2008, which seem to show an influx. I do think this is dated, but I also think it's a continuation of what's the natural flow toward what Bend will be -- vacation, retirement, and second homes. I still get people in the door my age or older who are talking about moving here, or have just moved here.

I also get a lot of younger, working age people say they are leaving.

Lots of brave talk about bringing in "living wage" jobs, but not much execution. Lots of talk about higher education, and training. Again, it isn't much happening.

These goals take a bunch of money which we don't have.

What we do have is tourism and retirement.

I don't really see housing coming back. 27 building permits in May would seem pretty pathetic since we'd normally be moving into prime building season. The Bulletin asks, Shadow Inventory? Hey, just look around you. Just look at the weed infested lots on the west side. Ask yourself how many homes were parked into 'rentals' until the market turned around.

Retail? Yes, downtown continues to fill up, but I kind of predicted that too. I thought the overflow of interest would continue for some time, maybe even long enough to bridge the gap between the bubble bursting and a real recovery. But you don't want to scratch too deep as to the real strength of all those retailers. A surge of consignment shops? Along with second-hand stores and antique stores, this is a negative indicator.

The biggest whimpering out, are the "Destination Resorts" which have quietly dropped most of their marketing campaigns, and/or put their plans into mothballs. They've made their "private" golf courses "public" and tried to make it sound like it was something they WANTED to do.

Or maybe the biggest whimpering out are the overreaches -- Juniper Ridge and the BAT. Quietly, behind the scenes, these are being off loaded.

So why aren't the iconoclasts pointing, and saying, "I told you so?"

The unwinding is slow and tedious. Plus, I gots to wonder if lots of these guys, who seemed so sure the downturn wasn't going to affect them, did indeed get hammered. A sinking ship takes everyone down.

There seemed to be a pretty steady drumbeat of "green shoot" news there for awhile. (Amazingly, the Bulletin has actually been a little restrained in their reporting -- as if realizing that Bend is a special case. They hint around the edges, that we're in for a whimpering rcovery, but also a whimpering bad time.)

I've said before, I miss the iconoclasts, but I think the poor dears are all worn out....

Whimper....

Like a breath of fresh air.

After thirty years, a certain amount of cynicism sets in. I've always admired teachers, for instance, who can keep each school year fresh. But...experience after experience after experience can make you....realistic? Sober? Wary?

So it's been fun to have the three young guys I have currently working for me. They are peppy and fresh, and they seem to like working in a comic store, and they read a lot of the same comics my customers read and like talking about them. (I, on the other hand, tend to be efficient about moving people along, and...I read comics that either no one reads, or one or two people read.)

I've tried not to influence these guys too much. I've tried not to give them too many instructions. (I have a tendency to lecture and lecture and say too much.) I want them to explore the possibilities.

For one thing, if they sell the same exact stuff I suggest that they sell, where's the advantage in that? Preferably, each of them would sell a slightly different mix of product.

I've always been lucky in that I could hire from my customer base. I get to observe their behavior for a period of time, and judge their character. It's amazing the clues you can pick up from the little things -- which represent the big things.

But mostly their good attitude seems to be, I hate to say it, a function of age. They are young. They just haven't become jaded. They think it all ought to be fun. Having a job is an adventure to them.

I've lightened up a lot in the last year. I stopped trying to control my customers behavior about a year and half ago, and that pretty much stopped the occasional disputes. I've had more time off, and that has made me a bit more fresh. I've learned to zip my mouth shut. Over these 30 years, I've had runs of really good attitude, and a few runs of bad attitude, and a whole lot in-between. But I'll probably never again have the innocence I see in these young guys.

I was talking to Matt at the end of the day yesterday, after I'd gone home early because I was feeling a little sour, and I kind of blurted out to him, "You guys are a breath of fresh air."

And I realized I totally meant it.

Downtown Openings and Closings

Saw a tweet from someone yesterday who said there was a coupon for a business called Bourbon Street at #5 Minnesota.

Odd, I thought. I looked it up in the yellow pages, and sure enough that's the Staccato's address.

Since it was still rumor, I didn't post it. Nor have I added Bourbon Street to the new list, though I suspect I will be doing so soon. So Staccato lost their lease? Um.....that's the oldest fig leaf in the books, but let them have it. Sounds like, though, that the landlords had made concessions but were unwilling to go further, and were able to line up a new tenant instead.

I've actually eaten at Staccato more than once -- which is pretty unusual for me; and may have foretold their doom...

I've heard tell of another business opening on my street, but since the FOR LEASE sign is still in the window, I'll wait for confirmation.

Again, not to be negative: New business's are great and all, and better than empty spaces, but a strong economy would keep more of the older, established businesses around. I'd prefer that. New businesses represent hope, not experience...

Still, I suppose a little 'creative destruction' keeps things hopping.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Downbeat news?

Maybe it's just me, but this mornings paper had a real downbeat vibe. I mean, the news is almost always about things going off course, but this just seemed....relentless.

Losing the L.A. flight, the state budget problems, the school budget problems, the hotel taxes -- the city looking for a way to give money to builders that they don't actually have....

Hey, City of Bend, giving credits that never get redeemed is a time-honored way to make money. Nothing to be ashamed of.

Anyway, yesterday was the first day of summer, as far as I'm concerned. It was a pretty busy day, but it followed three really sucky days which had me in a downbeat mood. My budget is such, I'm going to make money this summer no matter what -- but I'd rather than make more than little.

I think this month will be down; unless something unusual happens. That will be three months in a row down from last year, which I usually count as a 'trend.' Doesn't really surprise me. But I think, for all intents and purposes, that the double dip has already started for retail. I seem to be ahead of the 'official' acknowledgment of these things by a month or two -- and a good six months or more before it's announced. (I felt the first downturn started almost the same week -- the same day -- as the announcement of Bears Stearns problems; but the official start was months later. Same thing with Lehmen Brothers. My start was that very September, but the official recession start was assigned to Jan.; later pushed back to December. Whatever. The dip starts for me when I start to see it, not when the government tells me...)

In other words, if I waited for someone to tell me that a double dip downturn has started, I'd be nearly a year into the process in the real world.

Like I said, my summer budget is such that I'm going to be making a profit. But I'll do slightly better if I assess the reality better -- and my guess right now is a small downturn, which may not seem like much of a big deal but which I don't really see anyone talking about.

Goodbye Beard.

That's it. It's getting cut down, today. I'm getting sheared. Fleeced. Defoliated. (To the lowest level on the razor -- still a beard, but not a BEARD.)

Honestly, it tickled at night. It was too hot for the weather. And I think it stood out a little too much. Unlike my young customers, I really don't much like standing out in a crowd. I felt that people would walk in the door and hesitate for a second when they saw me.

Linda thinks it's all in my head. I finally said, "So? Which comes first, the chicken or the egg?"

If I'm self-conscious because people are looking at me, or people are looking at me because I'm self-conscious, same diff.

The biggest reason?

I will have the exact same looking beard when I'm 75 years old. Seriously.

I'm not 75 years old yet. Why look like I am?

Pop shorting.

Awesome. The Bulletin just paid for itself: "Put newspapers to work in your garden."

I'm building paths around the 'wild' areas of my property, and this might just be the perfect solution. I always knew the newspaper was .....err, compost.

Just kidding, just kidding.

**********

Last week's entry about Monday being Stepfather's Day probably didn't make much sense. I meant THIS coming Monday, you know, the day after Father's Day....

**********

There you go. Look at all the public money Bend would be foregoing without a public transit system: "...Central Oregon's fledgling transit service stand to split about 6.4 million in state funding." The Bulletin, 10/16/10.

Maybe I'm wrong about all this; if we need a transit district, and I'm willing to accept that we probably do, then missing out on the public monies wouldn't be too smart. I still think they built the damn thing, and said, "There. We can't pay for it, but what are you going to do about it?"

Which is ... rude.

*********

How...appropriate....how synchronistic...how fateful is this? Apple I-Pad is denying acceptance of a graphic novel adaptation of James Joyce, Ulysses.

Wiki: "Since publication, the book attracted controversy and scrutiny, ranging from early obscenity trials to protracted textual "Joyce Wars.""

This following the deletion by Kindle of George Orwell, 1984. They went all Big Brother on their ass.

You couldn't make this stuff up....

**********

I find my position on 'extreme sports' for kids to be a bit uncomfortable. I'm usually the one who says, "Let kids be kids."

I think the difference is when I detect extreme 'pushing' on the part of the parents. Kids take chances, and this is probably a good thing. But it should be something they just do naturally -- and that sometimes I think they are given inordinate attention for taking chances -- and the more extreme the chances, the more attention.

And the kid pushes the envelope too far, maybe farther than he would left to himself. Losing limbs and becoming paralyzed or worse -- one such 'extreme' athlete was profiled in the paper a few years ago, and I noticed that every single picture had him doing something that looked really dangerous, and in every single picture, adults were watching approvingly.

Living your life through your kids is natural, I suppose. But some of these more extreme examples look artificially motivated to me.

"Go kid! Go kid! .....oops."

Linda uses the example of finding out later that our sons were climbing down the Crooked River Gorge to go camping. There would be two ways to respond to that: "Gee, aren't you daring. How fun that must of been!"

Or...."Do you really think that's a good idea?"

Red Meat.

I'm a thinkin' we need some real estate red meat for Paul-doh and Bilbo.

In today's Bulletin: "Few Builders Make Use of Fee Deferrals."

Ever tried to push a wet noodle?

Also in today's paper: "Wilson Development in Works Once Again."

Well, if you read the story -- not really. They want to change the zoning to higher density. (Which would make whoever develops the land more money per foot, no?)

This little tidbit was interesting: The project was being developed when: "...the head investor died shortly afterward and the project lost steam." Once again unmentioned was that the 'head investor' committed suicide, I believe. Which I think is an important part of the story -- it speaks to the very viability of the original project. It didn't fail because of random circumstances.

I know that the Bulletin doesn't want to add the burden and grief of the families -- me neither, and I've avoided using the name. But I still think it is part of the news...

This ship I'm on sucks. Let's sink it!

Saw a movie yesterday, where the young leader of the most powerful country in the world, invades another country with faulty intelligence, looking for mass weapons. He is under the influence of his manipulative older second in command, who is secretly after the real treasures of the weaker country.

This second in command has control of a secret private army. Meanwhile, the invasion raises the religious fervor of the conquered people.

Meanwhile, the local anti-tax small businessman, has created a tea party of bandits who oppose the big government.

Yep....I went to see Prince of Persia.

Dumb fun, just what I was looking for.

**********

Drill baby Drill? Of course not!

We just want the oil. Let the OTHER countries suffer the environmental disasters from now on!

**********

I've sort of avoided the invasion of digital comics because it's a hugely complicated and unknowable subject that I can't do anything about anyway. A third of the top ten I-pad downloads(?) are comics. There was a recent poll of comic retailers that asked how many would sign a New five year lease, and -- to me -- an astounding 40% of them didn't say Yes (uncertain and/or no.)

Marvel has decided to release Invincible Iron Man Annual #1 digitally at the same time as physically to the brick and mortar stores. They are charging 1.99 per three installments, which actually makes it more expensive than the comic.

Thing is, there is the suspicion on the part of most of us retailers that: (1) soon the price will drop; (2) soon they will start releasing more titles, (3) soon they will release some titles before we get them, and (4) soon they will release an 'exclusive' online title and so on.

The concern about comic shops from the online critics is touching: Not.

"Marvel should take a page out of Steve Job’s notebook on this one. Be visionary and push ahead no matter who it pisses off. Especially if it’s good for the company, readers and the industry itself.

What do retailers think of Iron Man Annual Digital? Honestly, Marvel shouldn’t care." (PVP Online.)


This is very similar to the attitude of the same publishers and creators toward comic shops when it appeared that the mass market book retailers were going to make real inroads on the graphic novel world. That faded, but I haven't heard any mea culpa's.

I have a very unique perspective on this: I actually carry most of the art books and independents and literary comics that these critics think all comic shops should sell. I can make them work because I get Just Enough tourist traffic to come close to break-even. I also make enough money in my other product to buy these books as 'promotional' or 'advertising' material. As if to say, "Look I carry a large, and diverse selection."

But I would never say they sell well. And I would never second guess other retailers, especially small town comic retailers, who decide they can't afford these 'art' graphic novels.

I'm not talking about the quality of these offerings. They are great reads -- and I think they are worthy of support. Like old Hollywood putting out "prestige" movies that don't earn a profit, and making their money from the pot-boilers.

But they sell very slowly and sporadically, no matter how much I push them.

This drives the elite comic creators'crazy. They can't understand it. And when their material sells online, it's just proof that we comic retailers are doing a lousy job.

Anyway, I can't prove it, but I really doubt the whole infrastructure of comics can survive without brick and mortar stores. Oh, sure, comics will survive in some format or another, but the neat little world of comics that currently exist will fall apart. It ain't that strong in the first place.

It won't take much. And, even if eventually some sort of digital content replaces the current system, there is going to be a scary shake-out that is going to hurt a lot of people -- including the same creators and publishers who are calling for it.

Watch out what you wish for.