Shortly popping.

New York Times headline:

"Study Says Math Deficiencies Increase Foreclosures Risk."

"...borrowers with poor math skills were three times more likely than others to go into foreclosure..."

That's just.....funny. Or sad. Or something.

**********

So it's sinking in. With the oil spill.

We're just fucked.....

See what happens with pretend and extend? Sometimes there is no easy solution. Sometimes it just has to play out. Sometimes you have to pay the piper.

**********

I've been predicting for awhile now that the city of Bend would try to offload the BAT on someone else -- though why anyone else would take on the money drainer is a good question. Perhaps they could find ways to integrate the government subsidies? Whatever.

I suspect that they want to unload this white elephant so that the responsibility -- and the blame -- will be someone elses. Whoever takes it on can do the same thing -- it was the fault of the 'other' guy-- and thus it gets perpetuated. And if it eventually fails, the responsibily is so muddy by then, that everyone walks away without blame.

I predict the same thing with Juniper Ridge; that the city of Bend will sell it for a pittance to raise cash. I wonder if they wouldn't be better off holding onto it for now, and mothballing it. But...a steady loss may be too much pressure.

It's a bit like a corporation spinning off a money losing division -- and dumping as many debts as possibly on the poor thing, which is destined to fail. Or, the big banks spinning off the toxic assets on the American public. Even if it's legal, it ethically bankrupt.

**********

Speaking of ethically bankrupt, there was an article in today's Bulletin about a "California Ponzi scheme" and this quote leapt out at me: "...Irving, who lost $1.7 million in Heckschert's Ponzi scheme. 'But I still love the guy.'"

WTF?

It doesn't seem to matter whether a charming con man fleeces these fools of small amounts or large amounts. The victims seem almost complicit to me, in their lack of responsibility or rational thought.

Like I said, I've had competitors (years ago) who were charmers and at the same time ethically dubious, and I got back the same, "Oh, I like him."

I wonder if it's a complete lack of self-esteem. "He likes me and treats me good, so it's O.K. that he totally stripped me of my savings...."

**********

Speaking of lack of self-esteem. I watched the end of the Tony Awards last night, and it seems like Broadway is sucking up to Hollywood. I mean, one big star winning; Denzel Washington, Scarlett Johansson, or Zeta-Jones, I could believe; but all three? And notice how often the English actors win. Just saying, I wonder if they're cynically trying to boost box office, or theres a bit of insecurity there.

**********

More drizzly weather? I don't care what Black Dog says, this is more than normal. But...it gives me a few more cool days to get my gardening done. (One thing about gardening -- I go to bed all itchy and scratchy and feeling like there are bugs -- yuck.) My beard and hair are so long, they tickle. Tickled and scratchy -- makes it hard to sleep.

Short pops

KTVZ headline: "Krasev also lied to OLCC on resume."

Well......duh.

**********

I had a Japanese calendar in my office for the first half of the year -- and I couldn't use it. The beginning of the week was Monday, instead of Sunday, and I just couldn't wrap my brain around it.

**********

We need "used" shopping bags at our stores: it would be an environmental pity to buy new ones if we can avoid it. Just drop them off at Linda's store, with much thanks...

*********

Finally visited Trader Joe's yesterday, and I felt like a tourist walking around. I'm so not a foodie.

Here's what I think I saw, with my innocent eyes: lots of Trader Joe's brands, in small bottles....

**********

Sold all my Tru Blood bottles at the store. I wonder if they are still available?

Ready for the start of the new season tonight. Finally, an event show!

*********

News story about the dangers to the heart of taking pain relievers like Aleve every day. I usually pop one every night, and it helps me sleep -- and it helps with the teeth grinding tendency.

I tried to go without a pill last night, but I was so achy from gardening I couldn't do it.

**********

I have to make my yearly observation that Stepfather's Day is tomorrow!

**********

Took my friend Wes, who lived in Bend years ago, on a tour of west Bend. There were a lot of overgrown yards, and lots rimmed in weeds. Very, very tall weeds. The weather has incubated a monster season for weeds and grasses....

**********

Downtown Openings and Closings

I've taken Urban Minx off the "Leavings" list.

I've added a new store: BLVD. , a clothing store in the Penny Galleria.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Some obvious stuff I nevertheless feel I must say...

Sending teenagers into danger. Sailing around the world. Climbing Everest.

Go. Read INTO THIN AIR, and then ask yourself what kind of parents would encourage their young son to climb Everest. I believe I read somewhere that for every 4 climbers who summit, one of them dies.

This narcissistic hunger for fame has long ago gotten out of hand.

Sure kids want to do that stuff. Sure extreme sports look like a blast. But a life-time injury or a lost limb or death seem like a high price to pay for a few minutes of thrill. Isn't part of the job of a parent to deny a bit of the short-term thrill in favor of long-term safety? Am I all wet, here?

**********

Bend taking stimulus money to build yet more "affordable housing." On one hand, we'd be pretty stupid to turn down the money and it will have a marginal effect on wages. On the other hand, there is a homeless event that might do some real, honest to goodness good, that can't be insured. You have to wonder about systematic priorities that can't adjust to the reality of the moment.

The whole "affordable housing" theme has always seemed somewhat off base to me. Lots of empty houses around here...It seems to me that the same money used to build 'new' housing could be spread a lot more evenly and efficiently as subsidies to get homeless into existing housing....

**********

Meanwhile, back at the store...

We have entered that ten day period in mid-June when everyone gets distracted. Kids getting out of school, vacation planning, second home moving, etc. etc. It's as though summer kicks in for real. About the last week of June is when things settle down and people start spending again.

I've said this before, but it's really true, summer business used to start about two week earlier, around Memorial Day. But schools seemed to extend farther into summer every year -- well, until recently, that is.

To compensate, summer business now extends into mid-September, when it used to come to a dead stop around Labor Day.

I usually try to save up my ammunition (money) from late May and early June until this period right here and now: If I order stuff this week and next, it will arrive just as Summer kicks in.

Though I've also learned that I'm actually better off ordering the most material in the off months, and less in the busy months, exactly opposite of what one would expect. I think its because of the out-of-town and off-the-street foot traffic, people who are finding stuff that all my regulars have passed on but which is all new to them, and so the inventory tends to sell on a broader range....

The biggest exception to that is Boardgames. I need to really stock up on them, because they sell best in Summer and Christmas, and tail off the rest of the year. So, I'm going to spend at least part of this weekend researching games and making sure I have an adequate stock.

I also stock up on Calvin and Hobbes and Garfield and The Far Side and Dr. Suess and Asterix and TinTin and mainstream impulse items that sell.

This year is a little different in that I'm usually recouping my debt on orders from the slow months during the summer, and most often don't catch up until September, when the whole process stars again. (Ordering big in Sept., Oct. Nov., and paying for it with Christmas).
This year I'm actually caught up at the start of July, so can spend a bit more than usual. It's nice to turn that around, and I'll be curious is it helps boost sales.

Simple math.

A lot of simple math can be used in calculating how successful your business might be. A good, rigorous business plan should do some of this for you.

For instance, divide the known # of stores in your industry by the population, which should tell you if you have sufficient population to survive. Add or subtract factors like tourism, or online sales, etc. But, at the core, if there are 2000 comic shops in America, chances are you need at least 175K population to make it. So you're brilliant and effervescent and bubbly? Maybe you can do it with 150K.... You are willing to work 60 hours a week (and remain brilliant and effervescent and bubbly?), maybe 125K. But it's best to bet on the average, and work up from there....

Similarly, you should be able to get a general idea of 'Sales per Foot.' So if the average bookstore sells at 'such and such' a margin, per foot, and your overhead is 'this much' you can work out whether your store will generate enough sales to pay the overhead. So if you take footage out of retail for service, (coffee, tables, books) then you need to calculate how much extra you are likely to sell in the sq. footage you do have. High rents require higher sales per foot, obviously.

Or 'Sales per Unit'. You can work out how many books you are likely to sell per 10,000 in stock, say, and decide if your books are so good that they'll sell twice as good, or your margins are twice as good, or some combination thereof.

'Average gross profit per sale.' How much each item's Cost of Goods was; the higher the margin, the lower sales you can get away with. The lower the margin, the higher. I've always abided by the 40% margins rule for small business, give or take a few random circumstances, and it's been pretty true for 26 years.

These may seem simple and obvious, but I think sometimes that us Mom and Pop stores have to learn some of these lessons the hard way. When I finally went up to the Small Business department at C.O.C.C. I was taught a simple little formula that has been a life-saver.

Overhead divided by margin = sales.

Nice and simple.

For instance, an overhead of $5000.00 divided by a 40% margin, means you need $12,500.00 to break-even.

You want to be cheaper, sell everything at 20% off? $5000.00 divided by 20%, means you need $25,000 in sales.

You make your own product and can sell for 60% margins? $5000.00 divided by 60%, means you only need 8333.00 in sales to break even.

You own your own building free and clear and work all the hours yourself, so your overhead is only 2000.00 a month? $2000.00 a month divided by 40%, means you need only $5000.00 in sales.

And so on.

None of us are immune from these basics. We all have to calculate overhead costs, and margins and inventory and sales and number of hours worked and ways to get noticed and location and so on....

What one area of the store gives, another area of the store takes away.

The only time I've ever worried about competition is when they seem to be operating outside the normal perimeters. Because, if they are 'reality based' I figure I can compete.

For instance, I had a store that was consistently charging about 20% less than me in a certain product. As you can see from the example above, that would normally mean that store would have to sell $25K worth of product instead of $12.5K worth of product. I found out later they were getting free rent at their location.

And so on...

Anyway, obviously no business is going to last very long without doing these things. It's mostly common sense -- from the start I knew that my overhead couldn't be more than the gross profit, even if it wasn't altogether clear.

When I went up to the college, the small business adviser said I had a "primitive sophistication" in business. Heh. I'll still cop to that, just with way more experience.

Thing is, no one really teaches Mom and Pop. They teach accounting and such, but most of those systems are way too complicated and unnecessary for a M & P.

Cash flow and inventory turnover are probably the two hardest things to figure out, and every business will be different. It took me forever to realize that even at 40% margins I had to sell an item 4 or 5 times to make the profit and still have the inventory and since I was growing inventory for most of my career the formula was even more severe and since business was often slow necessitating discounts it was even more severe....

The two questions early in my career that would send a chill down my back, and to which I am still responding to (like old tapes) is:

"Is this all you got?"

And "Why is this so high priced?"

I don't get either question much, anymore, but somehow I still am trying to answer them.
I think the "Is this all you got?" still happens occasionally for an individual product, and the "why is this priced so high" is just unspoken.

Having a store full of material and appearing to be thriving is the best answer to both questions.

Anyway, I don't think it's actually all that hard to figure out a rough estimate of overhead, and a good estimate of profit margins, and -- the hardest -- an estimate of sales (based on industry averages, etc.)

Or maybe it's just easy for me after all these years, but I can usually do a "Blink" assessment and I think I come pretty close. I don't know background circumstances, like how much money the owners have and how much motivation they have. But I've decided that it almost doesn't matter, because no amount of motivation and money will overcome flawed business plans.

So many things to say....

...so few politically correct ways to say them.

I read the Source last night, and...I'm literally biting my tongue. It behooves me to shut the fuck up.

So I will.

I won't say anything.

I'm going to tend to my own knitting, by god. Till my own garden. Mind my own business.

**********

I was talking to a customer that I hadn't seen in years, and he was marveling at the growth of the store. He asked me why I was doing so well, when others were suffering.

First of all, I'm surviving, which is good, but I'm not exactly getting rich.

But as to why we're surviving: I think everyone is allowed one bubble to learn from. Unfortunately, (fortunately?) big bubbles may only come around once or twice in a career, and often wreck the business before any lessons can be learned.

I didn't know it at the time, but having gone through at least 7 bubbles, really prepared me for the big one. Hell, I didn't even learn enough from the first bubble, (sports cards) and proceeded to make nearly as many mistakes on the second bubble (comics). So much for being smart.

I then continued to make mistakes on the third and fourth bubbles (magic and non-sportscards) , and probably only really figured out how to handle the process with the fifth, sixth, and seventh bubbles (pogs, beanie babies, pokemon.).

This would be the 8th bubble, and while it's certainly economy ranging and a major bubble, it isn't even in the top half of the bubbles I've experienced, in terms of drop in sales.

So, just surviving a few bubbles has been the experience I needed to see another one coming and prepare....

Like being inoculated with cowpox to avoid small pox.

(That doesn't mean there might not be some other, unforeseen plague around the corner. In fact, I expect there is one. Which is another lesson from experience....)

**********

Yesterday was kind of a declaration of intent. I'm going to earn a good profit.

It's a way to stiffen the old spine.

This will work if and only if I can stick to my budget. So this morning I woke up, checked the Sales online, did a modest order, looked it over and decided it was all very marginal and deleted.

I'd be much better off spending that money on the good boardgames I'll be selling all summer....

**********

Reading over the first part of this post, I realized I didn't really say anything about HOW I prepared for the bubble.

1.) Eliminate debt.
2.) Keep overhead well below the break-even point.
3.) Keep your margins, don't panic.
4.) Fill your store with product.
5.) Don't preorder too much stuff.
6.)Don't spend the 'boom' money.
7.)Have a fall back plan.
8.)Mind your own advice.
9.)Don't overextend (or expand.)
10.)Work your own store.

There are plenty more, but these are off the top of my head.

Making a profit and danger signs.

Warning. I'm planning to start making a profit this July, and from then on.

I've been preparing this for months. Getting the store fully stocked at the same time as paying off all the bills. Running a business really is like turning an ocean liner in the middle of a canal; it can take months, even years to prepare.

So that's great, right?

I'm finally ready. One more week and we start the July billing period; from then on, I need to match last year's average and stick to my budget.

Hey, I should be encouraged, right?

Here's the thing. I've done this about half a dozen times over the years. I've worked and worked and prepared, got the store completely under control, and said: "HERE, this (future date) is when I'll start to become profitable."

The day comes --- and the future recedes. For example, I decided that September, 2001 was great time to get going....Heh. Sept, 2007 was another moment; and Sept, 2008, and so on....

After having this happen so many times, I've decided this can't just be an accident. It isn't just bad luck, or selective perception, or superstition. It's a real phenomenon. Something about my impulse to pick a certain date, and my ability to prepare, is connected to the overall economy in ways I can't quite fathom.

So, I give you fair warning. I'm planning to start turning a good profit on July 1, so the chances of a meteor strike have just gone up dramatically.....

"We've always lost a day, and we always want to lose a day...."

I understand that other people think differently than me, but I'm always a little surprised when my peers in the industry think so differently.

To me, much of of what we should do and not do seems obvious. It seems like we should all be on the same page.

The proposal to deliver comics on Monday, for Tuesday sales, seems like a complete no brainer. So I've been astonished and discouraged by the response.

My peers seem to be against it. At least, enough of the vocal ones to muddy the waters.

Tuesdays are a dead day for comics. I just don't sell any. I get comics in around noon on Wednesday, and it takes me until 2:00 to put them out for sale, so another half a day gone.
So being able to get the comics ready a day early, look for shortages, make reorders, seems absolutely perfect. Then, to have comics out early Tuesday morning adds a selling day (and a half) to the week.

Not to mention saving on the stress of having to do it under pressure, and making mistakes.

Mondays have always been good, I suppose because it's the start of the week.

The arguments against are mostly ridiculous: Such as, "We would compete with the other Tuesday releases; movies, music, games, etc."

To which I answer: So ? -- We are already competing, but we've given our customers a full day head start to blow their paycheck on the competing product. And -- do you suppose the other industries who are so much bigger and more lucrative than us know something about the best day to introduce new product.

But most of the arguments against Tuesday delivery boiled down to this: it's a change, and we don't like change.

"But we've trained all our customers to come in on Wednesday!"

So? -- Train them to come in on Tuesday! The beauty of this is that they can still come in on Wednesday if they please, AND they can come in on Tuesday.

Anyway, I'm mystified by the response, discouraged by the traction it's gotten, and afraid that Diamond is just going to throw up its hands and say: "O.K. Have it your way. Wednesday delivery it is."

Book capsules.

I've fallen about 3 books behind on my 'book a week' pace I set for myself. I could easily have kept up, just by reading faster books, but I decided that just racking up the numbers wasn't really the purpose -- which is to steadily read.

The last book I read in one day, the two books before that took three days a piece; the book before that took two weeks.

Ironically, this S.F. series I've embarked on is probably the least well-written and takes much longer to finish. A bit like a T.V. show that you get halfway through and realize it's not too good but you want to see to the finish. And sometimes, I'm just in the mood for sprawling space opera.

I don't remember when I last did reviews, so I'll start with the books I've read since mid-april or so.

The Devil's Eye, Jack McDevitt. To tell the truth, I had to dig up the book to remember its storyline. It's part of a series about an interstellar antiquities dealer, Alex Benedict and his beautiful assistant, Chase Kolpath, who have tendency to dig up ancient conspiracies and civilizations. I enjoy it, but obviously it doesn't stick.

Eifelheim, Michael Flynn. I guess if yo want to be nominated for a S.F. award, just set your novel in the Middle Ages... Interesting read, though I get impatient with medieval stuff, sometimes.

Night of Thunder, Stephen Hunter. Nearly my favorite thriller writer. Hunter used to be a movie critic with the Wash. Post, and he used to put down any super-hero type movie, which is interesting because his characters are nearly superhuman. Deadly fast and smart and tough.

Forest of Stars, Kevin J. Anderson. The space opera I was talking about. 600 pages, and paper thin characters and not much surprising. Some interesting concepts, but as with the first books, I'm not sure I'll continue. At least not right away.

The Defector, Danial Silva. Superagent Gabrial Allon, who Silva attributes just about every Isreali undercover success of the last 30 years....Fun and fast to read.

Lost City of Z, David Grann. Non-fiction book about the explorer Percy Fawcett who disappeared in the Amazon jungle in 1925 looking for, well essentially, El Dorado.

Indiana Jones lives! Great stuff.

It seems like much of the pulp fiction I read from the '40's and 50's were based on someone very much like Percy Fawcett (or his rival Hamilton Rice.)

Oh, and half the comics I currently read. You can just see the genesis of adventure stories: The Lost World, by Arthur Conan Doyle was directly based on Fawcett. Last year's UP, comes to mind.

Then, yesterday, I read The 47th Samurai, by Stephen Hunter. This guy is really good, and these thrillers have a propulsive quality that's hard to put down.

Not extensive reviews, I know. You guys don't pay me well enough for extensive reviews.....

Getting started...

There are two activities I love when I do them, but which I have a hard time starting.

Reading comics.

And Gardening.

The trick in gardening is to start slow; pull a few weeds, and see where it leads. 4 hours later, I've covered a pretty wide swath. I'm trying to not overdo it this spring (? it IS spring, isn't it?). It makes me realize I'm not in the best shape, all the more reason to garden...

I'm also always amazed at how much I get done -- and at the same time, amazed by how much more I need to do.

I've mentioned before, my Mom, Libby, was a great gardener. She knew her plants, but also created a pleasant space. I think I may be more of an architectural gardener, if you will. I don't know the plants that well, though I learned the basics of how to plant and nurture.

But I love designing the borders and paths. I spent a bunch of time pulling weeds out of the lava rock outcroppings -- leaving the bare rock and moss, almost sculptural.

When we first bought the house, I subdivided "Libby's" plants and kind of just planted them willy nilly the first year. Unknowingly, I created a Darwinian situation. Some of the plants did well under the junipers and in the lava dust and others suffered. Some died.

Some of those who suffered the first couple years, have revived. Others seemed to do well right off the bat.

So far I'm just colonizing the rest of the garden with the plants I already have, plus a few I bought a couple of years ago.

So far, I'm doing a hold and defend strategy: I make sure the areas I've already cleared and weeded stay clean; only then do I move on. I tend to dig way down with the grasses, and where I do that, they don't come back.

The lawn guys just laid down the sod, and the three quarters of the yard I cleared are free of the weed grasses, but the third they did are already infested. I wish I'd been able to finish it.
I'm thinking I may have to pull up at least part of the sod, removed the bad grass, and transplant the new sod -- you know, twice, three times the works. But once done....

I got a lot done yesterday, but man was I sore last night. I tore off about a third of fingernail without noticing, and that's been painful. I've never been able to garden with gloves -- that's like sex with a condom, it doesn't feel quite the same.

Linda being out of town for a wedding, I decided to drink some wine last night -- only the second time this year. I mulled over my life -- veritas -- and decided that I like what I'm doing, I just need to do MORE of it. Writing, gardening, reading, traveling....

Going outside to do a bit of weeding -- not putting on my heavy duty gardening clothes, because I just want to do some touch up, and I know that if I have my boots on, I'll get carried away.

And then, tonight, I'm going to sit down a read a stack of comics....

Beardy thots.

So now all Big beards go away and me still have big beard...well, maybe not so big beard, so other mans with bigger beard, four times bigger beards, me feel so inadequate, bunch of showoffs, I could showoff if I felt like it, big deal anyman and manywoman can grow beard but I grow beard for right reasons like it keep me warm and toasty and I think woman like testosterone evidence, so there.

Best buddy bigfoot have even bigger beard, whole body beard, and girls love him -- except for the smell, and the bad manners, but good guy good beard, big , big beard.

Fancy smanchy beards, groomed like, what a waste. My beard show grow glorious and wild and tickle at night when one sleeps, and invade nostrils and choke and wake up and snort, and fall back to sleep dreaming of hair, glorious hair and wake up and garden and sweat and sweat because I'm so hairy, but good honest sweat and don't you doubt it.

Oh, you think, beard has invaded brain ingrown hairs invading brain, such snobs. You ever grow beard? what do you know?

Your milage is going down....

Speaking of gas guzzlers.

I inherited a 1999 Toyota Solara: with only 20k miles on it. Like new.

I gave my 1990 Toyota to my son, Toby. (Who traded it in for a pickup....doh!)

Anyway, I'm pretty sure I got at least a third better gas mileage on the 1990 car. Which is just wrong, somehow. There should have been incremental improvements in mileage over that 9 years stretch, if that was the goal and it had been mandated.

Meanwhile, Linda bought a brand-new Toyota Rav, and it probably gets even worse mileage. We asked the salesman the mileage, and he spun a pretty good tale, telling us what we wanted to hear, but I think we knew he was giving us the best case scenario, what we wanted to hear, but we wanted the car....

Sorry, brown pelicans.

Beardly observations.,

Nice try at public relations, British Petroleum.

That was sarcasm...

I have two words for you, B.P.

Brown Pelicans!

Even better, pictures of Brown Pelicans covered in gooey crap.

You blew B.P.

No matter what you say or do from now on:

Brown Pelicans!

(And I say to you, the American gas guzzlers and the Obama administration (nice timing on the drilling announcement, by the way), and to myself every time I fill up my car: Brown Pelicans!)

**********

I passed a bunch of magnificently bearded fellows in front of Thumptown on the way to work yesterday.

Bunch of glory hounds. All out for the second-glances, and admirations. They're just in it for the dames. Me? I grow my beard for real, substantive reasons...

Like....I'm too lazy to shave.

**********

"Obama's drill ban may hinder jobs comeback." The Bulletin. 6/5/10.

Oh, Come ON!!!

**********

Spotted Mule.

First off, got to say that Mont West is a great name for the owner of a western store.

Secondly, I wonder if he has the building already leased? It's actually big enough for one of the major chains -- and probably way too big for any local businesses.

Thirdly, more and more I get the sense in talking to other business owners, that it's almost a given that it's more lucrative to liquidate a store than to try and sell it.

**********

"Property Bend spent millions on for city hall now a drain." The Bulletin, 6/5/10.

Kind of funny to me that the newspaper doesn't mention who sold the property until the ninth paragraph.

The former owners? The Bulletin.

Suckers!

I got to say, it seems to me that just about every decision the city council made in during the boom was the wrong one. I mean, flipping a coin would've resulted in better decision making. Or doing the 'Costanza': making your best guess and then doing the opposite.

**********

May results.

Our sales for May were down 6% from last year. I think I mentioned that last May was a bit of an outlier; about 10% higher than the rest of spring last year. So it was going to be hard to beat.

Nevertheless, combined with the 3% drop last month, we are two/thirds of the way to a trend.

In hindsight, it's pretty obvious that the drastic fall in sales that started in Sept. 2008 had begun to level off around April of last year, which makes perfect sense.

I expect we'll have good months and bad months from now on, maybe for a couple more years. I have to remember what I told myself going into this: these things drop farther, last longer than you think they will....


I think the last six months have probably been hard on everyone. Even though the Spotted Mule isn't downtown, it has been around Bend for a long, long time. It once occupied the building next to where the Bookmark is now; I always wondered at the massive building they constructed on Third St.

There have been about 7 businesses closing and 1 business opening in the last two months, which closed the gap downtown. (Openings had been outpacing closings...)


Seven months of increased sales had begun to fool even skeptical old me. I'd begun to factor a 5% increase in sales for my business plans. But, again in hindsight, the increases were rather pathetic when put into the context of how horrible the plunge of 08 was...

Now, I'm factoring in a 5% decrease in sales -- which means I won't be hurt by that amount of drop, and since I'm pretty quick to respond these days, I could probably drop even further -- even with employees and keeping the store up. I intend to make a profit no matter where the sales land.

The optimist in me still thinks that we'll see a 5% increase -- but my planning self is being careful. I have the wonderful luxury of responding the ACTUAL level of sales through my reordering.

Interestingly, our comic and graphic novels accounted for a full 60% of sales in May; they've been hovering at or slightly below 50% for the last few years due to my diversification. It's good that I can count on my regulars even during slow months; and indicates to me that off the street sales were down. My games and books sales being lower, also indicate to me a lack of strength in tourism and walk-ins. My regulars become even more important in slow months.

Another interesting trend is that comics monthlies have actually gained strength, while graphic novels have lost some of their momentum. There was much talk a few years ago of G.N.'s replacing comics; it certainly seemed the trend and I responded to it by increasing my selection mightily. But...it appears to have stalled a bit; not being able to sell Manga is part of that.

But I've also begun to order more monthlies in advance, and to be quicker on reorders, because -- even with the prices going up -- there seems to be nice, solid base of readers.


The overall economy. I've mentioned before that I think we're in a double dip. If it was ever up at all. This was the Kitty Hawk of recoveries -- not much better than a hang glider could do. Not a real powered-up recovery. In fact, if you see the drop-0ff of 2007-2008 as the White Cliffs of Dover type drop-off, it wasn't too hard to glide above those numbers.

So it's -- be careful and watch the skies.

Blog thoughting.

I'd hate to have Nosler's future insurance bills. Or to be his current insurance guy. "You insured an ammunition factory?"

**********
Sometime in the near future, a friendly bald guy, who speaks fluent Spanish and has an eastern accent and plays competition caliber chess will move into a small American town and start telling people conflicting mysterious stories and probably won't be able to help himself screwin' with people....

I wonder how long it will take him to get back....

**********

"I will give you unlimited energy," the Genie said. "There...under the waves, is the magic potion. It is yours for the taking...."

LATER:

"Please Mr. Genie, take it back! I don't want it anymore!"

"I said I'd give you unlimited energy," the Genie said, with an evil grin. "When I said the potion is unending...."

**********

I kept waiting and waiting to mow my new lawn in back; finally just put the mower at the highest level and plowed through. Even then, the mower clogged every couple dozen feet. Weird weather.

**********

Time Machine Moment: If you had told someone ten years ago: One of the two couples at the top of the political heap will get a divorce. BUZZZ. No, it isn't Bill and Hilary.

**********

Time Machine Moment #2: If you were collecting "The Kid's" card in 1989. He'd retire tired and beaten down, with a good career but not one for the ages.

Well, having the fifth most homeruns in history is probably for the ages. But you have to understand the expectations back then. THAT was THE card, let me tell you.

(I'd also have been amazed that Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy and a dozen other players would have their careers foreshortened at below Hall of Fame numbers. I think you have to observe a generation of baseball to understand a generation of baseball.)

**********

Was reading a Dan Silva book, THE DEFECTOR, with the super Israeli agent Gabriel Allon, where everything he does is super competent and super justified. And the fiasco in the Gaza is happening at the same time, and there is some dissonance there. Fiction is fiction.

**********

Twilight of the Twilight.

I've been thinking about crossover hits, and how each of them represent an entire subculture. They're the tip of the iceberg.

Had a couple of Mom's and kids in, and one mother picked up an Ugly Doll and started explaining it to her friend. In return, the other mother picked up a BONE graphic novel and explained it.

Both of these represent a huge world; and each are barely peeking over the waters.

BONE has sold in the millions to schools and libraries. Ugly Dolls are being sold everywhere.

Meanwhile, there are dozens of great graphic novels for kids that the public has never heard of. Meanwhile there are thousands of designer toys, (urban vinyl, whatever you want to call them.) A whole movement that people don't realize exists, but which Ugly Dolls once represented.

I suppose, if look at other categories, there are the obvious Spider-mans and Batmans in comics. These are so mainstream, that calling them crossovers doesn't fit.

But if you go down a level in familiarity, titles like Green Lantern or Flash or Thor or Captain American, are the type of nearly crossover hits that some of the general public has heard of, and some haven't. (For instance, if I wear my Green Lantern symbol shirt, most people don't know what it is, but quite a few do. Whereas, everyone would recognize a Batman or Superman symbol.)

Believe it or not, Iron Man was once considered a secondary level that the public probably wouldn't be interested in. It's success has probably given the green light, if you will, to Green Lantern type movies.

Watchmen used to be the epitome of a crossover title, but has now become so well known that it joins the rest of the pantheon -- Hulk, Daredevil, X-Men.

The near crossovers right now would be, Scott Pilgrim and Walking Dead.

In games, Settlers of Catan and Ticket to Ride are nearly there-- and again represent an entire movement.

In toys for adult boys, the crossover used to be Spawn figures. (Sadly, these have fallen off...not sure why they are being so neglected by McFarlane).

In fantasy art, it's Vallejos and especially Frazetta.

I suppose I should be happy that we have these crossover hits. In the past, they didn't exist. Then again, in the past some of these entire movements didn't exist (Euro boardgames, Urban Vinyl).

I suspect I should also be happy that none of these movements -- graphic novels, euro games, designer toys, etc. are so big that the mass market adopts them lock, stock and barrel.

At least, so far.

Sometimes I think I have a crossover hit, and I totally miss it. I ordered 30 copies of the Twilight Graphic novel, which was crazy. It was like a pitcher throwing the ball and hitting the mascot; a totally wild pitch. After all these years, I still make lulu's like this.

Downtown Openings and Closings.

Showcase Hats is gone -- seemingly overnight.

The Closings are closing the gap with the Openings. Since it's the first of the month, I probably should take a look around to see if there are any other changes...

My count: Openings, 52. Closings, 50.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Urban Minx, Minnesota St., 5/25/10.
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

We have houses! In Bulk! Buy them Wholesale!

Linda and I went for a drive yesterday, and decided to check out Pronghorn. We were met at the gate and told to turn around, but we weaseled our way into the place a little bit and got a bit of a gander.

I reserve my comments. Well, O.K. -- it looked like Golf Heaven (or Hell depending on your perspective...)

But it brings me to the current listings of houses in Central Oregon.

If you want to know how much trouble we're in, go the Bend Economy Bulletin Board Real Estate section, and check out Month End Summary for May, 2010.

Scroll down the listings.

And scroll...

and scroll...and scroll....go fix yourself lunch....and scroll....go have a short walk....and scroll and scroll.....

Frightening number of houses and lots for sale.

But I noticed something that -- since I've always been bit perturbed by the ''exclusivity" purveyors of the west side -- that really stood out.

There are plenty of houses for sale on the east side, but they are very spread out. A few in every neighborhood, but not wholesale massacres. Places like Williamson Park and Woodside Ranch or even modest subdivisions like Tanglewood and Stonehaven have a few house for sale each.

But the west side? We have it for you in bulk, wholesale!!!

I picked out a few of the more notable neighborhood and counted how many lots and houses were for sale. This isn't 100% accurate, as it was counted by hand, but it's close.

Awbrey Butte, for instance. I chose this neighborhood because its on the higher end, and because it's mostly matured and mostly houses.

I counted 51 houses for sale.

(This isn't counting Awbrey --- "Court; Glen; North Rim; Park; Meadows; Ridge; Heights;Point....etc. etc. Methinks the builders think that 'Awbrey' has a certain ring.)

I could just have easily chosen Broken Top, or some of the other big house neighborhoods, and found just as many houses for sale.


Northwest Crossing: which was held up to all as a place that would resist falling prices because it was just so darn neat?

44 houses for sale, and 25 empty lots.


Tetherow?

22 houses and 10 lots. (For both Tetherow and Pronghorn, I couldn't be sure if there was a domicile on the lot or not, because even the lots are expensive...)

Hell, I didn't think they had built 22 houses yet....


Pronghorn? (O.K. it's east side, but EXCLUSIVE).

30 houses and 20 lots.


The all time winner (loser?) Ridge at Eagle Crest in Redmond, with something like 180 lots and houses for sale. (Again, I didn't count Eagle Crest itself, which had plenty of houses for sale...)


There is at least one caveat: (I'm sure you guys will point out others....) Older subdivisions like Williamson Park and Woodside Ranch have fewer houses per acre, so less houses to be put on the market. But, hey, that's sort of the point, isn't it? Overbuilding per acre isn't an excuse for house many houses for sale as far as I'm concerned. Driving around the east side, some of these cheaper subdivisions, which you would have thought would be wholesale slaughter, are actually holding up pretty well.

The west side premium houses? Not so much.

Pep Talk.

Finished my advance orders for July/Aug. Came in under budget. Now I have to go through two to three more weeks of austerity before I can start ordering for the 'real' summer -- which these days is more or less, mid-June to mid-Sept.

One thing I need to remind myself about austerity measures, is if I actually succeed at my goal, I get to go back to normal spending. When I'm in the midst of austerity, it can seem like it will never end, and that nothing's happening, and it seems like all I can see is all the gaps in inventory.

When business was so spectacularly good in March (14% increase), and after seven straight months of increases, I let my spending get out of hand a bit, expecting to at least be able to break even. In my defense, there were some smokin' deals being offered by my suppliers.

Unfortunately, April and May have not lived up to expectations.

I almost immediately realized this, and cut back on my spending.

And waited, and waited.

Until this week, when I was finally able to make a nice little reorder of games and books and graphic novels and fit it within my budget. I cut back far enough over the last two months to be able to cover the overspending early.

But it can be very hard to not break down and buy when you've gone weeks, and months.

So in about 3 weeks, I'll be able to get back to a regular schedule. I've given myself a reasonable budget, generous but with an upper limit, starting in July. If I stick to that budget, and stay disciplined, I should be able to both stock the store AND make money.

Instead of overspending by 3K or 4K or 5K in a short period, and then being able to spend almost nothing for longer periods.

I've mentioned before that I tend to either go pedal to the metal, or completely coast. I need to find a nice cruising speed. Everything I've done this year has pointed toward a July 1 restart.

So forgive the repetitive pep talks, over the next three weeks of so. It's how I motivate myself: ---- pick a future date and then psych myself up so I get a good strong motivated and successful beginning.

House Hunters. What?! No Granite Counters?!

Reading the extensive story about Mr. Krasev in yesterday's Bulletin, I suddenly realized something.

There is a limit to my interest about this guy, and I just passed it. I'm officially finished with him.

**********

Watching Househunters last night, and a guy comes on with the two day old stubble look. I don't think anything of it, until at the end of the show they show wedding pictures, and sure enough, they guy still has the two day stubble. In his wedding pictures. I don't know, I just thought that was funny.

**********

Speaking of beards, in another week or so, this baby is getting trimmed.

Apparently, some people thought I was going to be in the beard competition, but no. I was doing this more or less as 'cover'; an excuse to grow my beard as long as I could stand it. I passed that point a couple of weeks ago. Definitely looks old fartish.

The competition? No way would I get up in front of people. And no way is my beard weird or spectacular enough.

**********

Speaking of Househunters. This channel has become our 'fail-safe' channel. If the T.V. has to be on (and don't ask me why The Infernal Contraption has to be on because there is no good excuse) we tend to turn to these house shows.

It used to be Law and Order reruns, but Linda knows I'll leave the room and I tend to stick around for the Househunter shows, so that's become the fall back. (Me? I leave it on C-Span or MSNBC or CNBC -- yes, I'm that wonkish...and Linda will leave the room.) HGTV is the compromise.

Anyway, for me, these shows aren't really about the house -- they're about the people, and our culture.

I'll bet you anything that a marriage expert could tell right away which couples are going to make it and which aren't just by watching a half hour show. Beard stubble guy, above, was being treated as an extra appendage by his fiance -- and sure enough, the house she liked was the house that was picked.

You can tell which house will be picked, or which spouse is really in charge, by the subtle interactions.

I think, most of the time, if I like the couple in the show, they'll pick the house I would've picked. If I don't like the couple, they'll pick the worst house...

It also reveals a whole lot about our culture, and even about regional differences. Some things seem universal -- wanting the walk-in closets, the granite countertops, the wood floors. Sometime, to the exclusion of good bones in a house -- they'll pick houses for the most cosmetic of reasons.

I think I'm more interested in privacy, and about a surrounding space, than most of these people. (Or most of the people in N.W. Crossing, for that matter.)

Property Virgins is also a real cultural touchstone, especially about our expectations and our Keeping Up with the Jones attitudes.

They'll announce some modest amount of money available for a house, and then ask the couple what they 'want.'

They usually pick an exclusive neighborhood, every amenity, and huge space. The three car garage, the wood floors, the granite, the ....well, you get the picture.

The lady shows them the neighborhood they like, and then.....ta dah! the price of the cheapest house is usually at least twice their budget. Their faces fall.

Then she takes them to a cheaper, older house nearby the exclusive neighborhood, and it has almost nothing they're looking for. They start looking alarmed and confused.

Finally, she shows them a non-exclusive neighborhood, newer homes, but many of the amenities they want if a bit smaller. Or an older home with bigger lots. They are relieved.

And, of course, that is the starter home.

Kind of what Linda and I did. Williamson Park is a nice neighborhood, I think mostly retired folk, and nicely kept up. The lots are bigger, the landscaping mature, and I like it a lot. It's a little enclave -- surrounded by neighborhoods with newer, cheaper housing and apartments. But on a day to day basis, we simply aren't impacted by that. And the houses in Williamson Park are nice, and at least a third less expensive than westside houses (and, like I said, have bigger lots and privacy and landscaping.) Also, it seems to be way more stable -- an average of maybe one house for sale at any one time, and no abandoned houses.

I do see the appeal of the N.W. Crossings houses, but even if I had the money, I would want houses farther apart. A bungalow style, sure, but someplace with breathing room.

Our house is 1600 sq. ft., which is great for a couple: a master bedroom, and an office for each of us.

So it's interesting to watch couple buy these enormous, cavernous (usually they even echo) McMansions. Especially in Texas. I'm telling you -- huge houses on dried up prunes of lots and lots of big white rock and strange decor -- and they LOVE it.

Texans are weird.

All in all, these shows reflect how utterly spoiled we Americans are -- and I include myself. Linda says it's inevitable -- "It's nesting!" she says. Still, nothing is more disorienting that watching the devastation in Haiti, say, and then turning to a program where a couple is whining, "But it doesn't have hardwood floors!?"