30 golf courses???!!!

30 golf courses in central Oregon???!!!

Did I read that right? (Bulletin. "The Golf Boom is Over.")

That's just crazy.

Meanwhile, you got Bill Smith, who helped build Black Butte ranch saying: "...it would take 120,000 residents to sell 300 memberships, roughly enough to support one private club."

Holy Tiger Club!

Do the math. O.K. He's talking private memberships, but still. It sounds like 2 or 3 private courses would do the job. Maybe a couple more for casual, non-member types. A couple more for tourists?

What am I missing?

Sunday suds.

Cheney gets a heart.

I believe it's the first one he's had...

**********

The Bulletin insists it's moderate.

I would have thought it was conservative and proud of it.

It points to its position on pro-choice.

Picking a single position on the other side is a time-honored tactic. Hatfield was conservative, but a peacenik; Packwood was a conservative, but for women's rights (ironic, considering his demise.)

It's a way to both satisfy your base, and also try to appeal to moderates. But as far as I can tell, it's mostly lipservice.

**********

Have mostly taken the month off from writing. Some snippets from my treks into the high desert.

I want to come back to my manuscript of "I'm Only Human" fresh, because I think I probably have a lot of work to do.

**********

Found a recreation area only 7 miles from my house, about a 10 minute drive. Mayfield Pond.

Problem is -- it's a mess.

It allows motorized vehicles, and they have thrashed the landscape. Deep, ruddy ruts, careening through the landscape. Lots of trash. Lots of shell casings. Not terribly attractive.

Reminded me of China Hat Butte -- blown the smithereens tree-trunks. Feels more like the inside of a industrial warehouse than it does nature.

You'd think the gun and off-road vehicle people would want to take more pride.

**********

Whitney Houston had more varied and types of drugs in her than I take in a year.

And cocaine.

I know this is naive, but why the hell do people try meth and cocaine and heroin the first time?

**********

Speaking of drugs, I also just watched the documentary about Ken Kesey's magic bus trip.

There is an uncomfortable moment toward the end where Kesey talks about using the same energy to run a farm that he used to write (uncomfortable to me, because that's the same exact excuse -- running a store -- that I used.) That and he dismisses the importance of novels, saying there are too many of them. (Again, a thing I have told myself.)

Then he says, something like: "Either that or I really did burn myself out using drugs," and he laughs but there is just a tinge of -- it might be true.

Well, my glory days were before I started writing, so I can't use that excuse.

**********

West. Civ. as told by Iran.

Had an extra hour last night, didn't feel like reading, so went to Netflix and looked for a short documentary and selected: "Iran: Forgotten Glory."

Right off the bat, there is something a little strange about it.

It starts with Cyrus the Great, who was "revered and worshiped by all." You know, that kind of florid language. Hmmm. I get the sense that I'm getting a different perspective.

Cyrus, you see, was more or less forced to conquer the Middle East because if he hadn't he would've been attacked by all the other countries. "Hey, I didn't really want to be conqueror! You made me do it!"

O.K. So far, I'll buy "The Great" part, because he outlawed slavery and allowed freedom of religion (and freed the Jews from Babylon.)

So far, the documentary is pretty dry, I hate to say it, nearly boring. It's visuals are mostly showing the same ruins and wall reliefs over and over again.

If you've seen one knocked-over pillar you've seen them all. It's really refreshing when they show the occasional standing pillar.

When it comes to the wars with the Greeks, it starts getting really strange. See, the Greeks were traitors and betrayers, who refused to be nice, docile subject people and Darius the Great was forced to land at Marathon and spank them. He was temporarily indisposed.

His son Xerxes attacks, and while briefly hindered by "an army of Spartans (no mention of The 300) and Athenians and their allies" goes on to burn down Athens. But he's such a nice guy, he goes ahead and rebuilds the city.

Meanwhile, there is a brief mention of a "storm" that hinders his fleet. (But it doesn't really matter because Greece got most of its ideas from Persia, anyway.)

The documentary portrays Alexander as a pipsqueak who was about to be beaten back by Darius II, when the emperor is betrayed.

O.K. That's interesting. I'm all for revisionist history -- "History is written by the winners" is the quote they use.

By now, the documentary is an hour old, but I decide to go ahead and watch the second half.

It's even more fallen pillars and marble slabs and beat up wall reliefs, but now it takes a religious turn. No, not Islam. Not yet.

Zoroaster.

O.K. That's kind of cool. I admit I don't know a lot about Zoroaster.

Thus spake Zarathustra.

I'd almost think the documentary was made by Zarathustrians, except I'm not sure there is such a thing. Be'hai's are the closest thing to inheritors of this philosophy, but the documentary doesn't mention them. He is considered one of the prophets by many of the religions, so...I'm just not sure why this is so prominent in the film.

Anyway, after a brief reign of 65 years by the Greeks, the Persian empire makes a comeback, defeats the Romans and and finally meets it's demise under the "arab" Muslims. Up to now, I'm thinking this is an Iranian production, but they do so little with the Muslim aspect, that I start to doubt.

Anyway, a strange little film, that I don't think I'd recommend unless you think you want to see someone else's perspective.

Gestalt retail.

I was looking around the store the other day and wondering, "Why is this working?"

Have I finally reach a level of inventory that is self-sustaining? Or is it the diversity? Is my pricing finally effective? Is it my employees? Is it the very longevity of the place? The media attention and the blog? Is it that downtown Bend is still vibrant?

There are cycles to business -- right now, we are benefiting from the popularity of The Walking Dead, The Game of Thrones, and The Hunger Games. I may not like "Comic Book Men" but it certainly gives us exposure.

Coming up, is the big Avengers movie. I don't expect that we'll sell a lot of Marvel comics from it -- that doesn't seem to happen, though I might be able to get people to try some of Joss Whedon's comic book writing. (Astonishing X-Men, Buffy, Angel, Dollhouse, Dr. Horrible...)

But again, the attention can't hurt.

When I look around the store, I see lots of stuff that -- well, aren't all that strong individually. But it seems to work as an overall thing. Everyday I sell something that I thought I'd never sell.

The only concept I can come up with that explains how the store is working right now is, Gestalt.

"Gestalt –("essence or shape of an entity's complete form") is a theory of mind and brain...";" ...the operational principle of gestalt psychology is that the brain is holistic, parallel, and analog, with self-organizing tendencies. The principle that maintains that the human eye sees objects in their entirety before perceiving their individual parts. Gestalt psychologists stipulate that perception is the product of complex interactions among various stimuli." Wikipedia.

Over the last decade, I've kind of gone with the flow. Bringing into the store anything that interested me, and assuming that it would fit into the overall mix. The store, to some extent, is a reflection of my interests. Of course, I'm hard-headed about it. I look for deals, for instance. I look for products that will physically fit into the store.

But I quit categorizing quite so much. Yes, I carry mostly fiction, but not always. Yes, I carry fiction with a fantastical bent, but not always. And so on.

I just kind of know when I see it on an order form whether I think it will fit.

Occasionally I make a misstep, but I can usually figure out a way to work around it. To make it work.

For the first 20 years of business, I suppose I thought I was a Lone Ranger. A weird sort of nerd that didn't even really fit in with other nerds. So I slowly accumulated customers who liked what I was doing (or could overlook it.)

The internet changed my thinking. Now I see that my interests are the interests of lots of other people. It's still more unusual than not, but now I have some faith that if something interests me, that it will interest other people, even if it doesn't look like there is much of a commercial outlet for it.

The other word, beside Gestalt, that might describe how the store works is Synergy.

"Synergy may be defined as two or more things functioning together to produce a result not independently obtainable." Wikipedia.

Very early on in my career, I added up the sales of t-shirts and buttons and posters, and it was pretty pathetic. So I got rid of them.

Sales on comics and everything else in the store immediately dropped.

Chastened, I brought them back, and sales recovered.

That was my first experience with the idea of a "mix," of having things that don't sell all that well so that I can sell other things. In a sense, this has been my advertising budget.

All this runs counter to what most business books would tell you to do. But I think most businesses would probably follow business book advice into the ground, and I started to ignore advice that didn't match my experience.

The added bonus is that it allows me to have a fun store that I'm interested in. It allows me to follow my own interests, with some expectation that others will appreciate it.

In and out of the garbage pail. It's just my messy gestalt brain.

MIddle-aged white guy in a hoodie.

I'm a middle-aged white guy in a hoodie.

I found it at the store. I liked it. I started wearing it.

My winter coat also has a hood.

Just saying.

Hunger Games.

O.K.

I knew this was going to be big. I've been saying it for several years. I've been saying, "If I'm the first the tell you about Hunger Games, I won't be the last!" And "It's the new Twilight, only better!" That kind of thing.

But the second and third books in the series are only in hardcover. Sure, they are only 17.99, which isn't bad, but I've been very leery of carrying too many hardcovers, which I can't sell once the paperback comes out.

There is a paperback version of Hunger Games, which is 8.99, and I ordered a dozen copies, which is about 10 more copies than I normally order of any one book.

I started with a stock of 3 hardcovers each of Hunger Games, Catching Fire, and Mockingjay.

Less than an afternoon after making the last order for this week, I sold all three copies of Catching Fire.

Meanwhile, I'm informing customers that, No, there is no paperback version of Catching Fire or Mockingjay, nor is there one scheduled in the near future as far as I could see. (Really, why would the publisher do that when they could sell the hardcovers all day long?)

Here's the other thing. Unless you are incredibly lucky, so lucky that I think you immediately go buy a lottery ticket if it happens, you probably won't find a used copy of any of the books.

I'm not talking about a month ago, or even a couple of weeks ago -- right now, and for the next few weeks, it will be nearly impossible.

You see, most used bookstores are only going to have a few copies of a really hot book turned back in.

So let's wildly overestimate and say that each store has 5 copies each -- that would be about 20 for the whole town.

I probably had 20 people call or walk in looking for a used copy yesterday afternoon alone.

I'm guessing there were probably, at most, 5 copies available among ALL the used bookstores and that there will be 500 people looking for them.

By the way, this dynamic doesn't change just because you're Powells or something. If they have more copies, they also probably have more searchers.

I just sort of shake my head when they walk off to continue the hunt. (The waiting list at the library is apparently a mile long.)

I'm going to make a wild guess here; because, it may seem a little hard to believe with Costco and Walmart and Barnes and Nobles:

By this time next week, everyone will be sold out of these books -- even the new ones.

I'm kind of irked that despite all my instincts, I was still conservative. I've got plenty of copies of the first book in paperback, plus copies of the first and third in hardcover. I think I may have some coming in today, and probably on Monday too.

I threw caution to the wind and ordered a dozen copies of each of the hardcovers, and more than a dozen more of the paperback. If I've miscalculated, I'll sell them over the next year or so.

Downtown turnover rate.

I have to wonder, a little, if the length of this downturn has caught Bend businesses by surprise.

It certainly is within the perimeters of my original guesses -- that it would be at least seven years, but I suppose I thought it would be seven years from top to bottom back to a regular growing rate (it was going to take much longer to reach the levels we saw in the boom -- and then only because of natural inflation).

Now I'm thinking it might be 6 or 7 years down and bumping along the bottom. (I started beating last year's sales levels, but not dramatically, about 9 months ago. I need to see the store consistently beat a 'positive' month before I'll think we're on our way up again.)

Now that we're about 4.5 years from when I first started seeing a drop-off (September, 2007) it certainly looks like it's got a long way to go.

At least from the number of businesses that have opened downtown, there seems to have been a lot of optimism. I've been saying for some time, that new businesses are not necessarily a reflection of strong business (they haven't opened yet, how do they know?) but of pent up demand for downtown space, overflow from the last boom, natural optimism, and perhaps not acknowledged much, the lack of opportunity for jobs and/or the lack of adequate space elsewhere.

Whatever it is, we're lucky that it's happening. I was driving Cameron home from work the other day, and we drove though the Oxford Hotel block of downtown and he commented how "empty" it all looked.

I said, well, it's probably no worse than 15% empty, and there were times in the past when downtown was half empty.

But he's right. A 20% or 15% or even a 10% vacancy has a noticeable dampening effect.

The turnover downtown is starting to look dramatic to me, and the closings list is slowly catching up to the openings list.

Still, I think that downtown will stay strong. Where else can you open in Bend and have immediate foot traffic?

One would hope that any business opening nowadays is aware that it is a long hard slog, and that all the talk of a resurgence is just that until it actually, truly happens.

Every little bit helps.

Squeezed in the first half of the new books I ordered, with no room to spare. The other 150 books will show up in about a week, so maybe I'll sell enough by then to make room for them too. (Not likely.)

The thing about ordering too much -- there always seems to be a clever way to make room for them. Someday I won't figure out a solution, but it hasn't happened yet.

This year, I've been concentrating on the three categories that I let idle for a couple of years while I concentrated on new lines (books and games.)

Toys, collector cards, and anime.

Mostly it's a matter of picking out some premo stuff to mix with what I already have, which seems to be the key to unlocking sales in the moribund categories.

Cameron said that my addition of the Miyazaki movies, along with significant titles like Steamboy, has started people buying older anime, which was my goal. Toys sales are up this year, too, because I've paid more attention to them.

Sport card sales are holding their own. I didn't have an agreement with Panini, the official basketball card maker, so I couldn't get Bsk. cards until a month after they came out. It didn't matter. Until -- Lin. Then I wanted them, and I couldn't get them. So finally filled out the paperwork and should be getting Bsk. cards in a timely matter soon.

I've been dabbling in non-sports cards, too. I ordered a couple boxes of Hunger Games cards, for instance.

Cameron asked me if sports cards were really worth the hassle.

"Well, they pay for you," I said.

"Oh, in that case -- never mind."

Downtown Comings and Goings. 3/22/12.

High Desert Gallery is gone. Clutch is moving into Tres Jolie: by the internal rules of this list, I have to include this as a Going.

More stuff going on, but I'll wait for confirmation.

LATER: Rather than post a new list, I've added Letzer's Deli to this list as 'Going.'

NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN


Hola!, Bond St., 3/3/12.
Amanda's, Franklin Ave., 2/24/12
Barrio, Minnesota Ave., 2/12/12.
Rescue Moderne, Harriman, 1/12/12.
Letzer's Deli, Franklin Ave. 2/12/12.
Navidi, Minnesota Ave., 2/9/12.
Mazza, Brooks St. , 2/9/12.
La Magie Bakery, Bond St., 1/6/12
Brother Jon's Ale House, Bond St., 12/10/11.
What Lola Wants, Wall St. , 12/2/11.
Jackalope Grill, 10/12/11.
Gypsy Soul, Wall St. 10/12/11.
Colour N' the City, Tin Pan Alley, 10/12/11.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St., 10/12/11.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 10/12/11.
Ruby, Minnesota Ave., 10, 12/11.
Kariella, Lava Road, 8/24, 11.
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

(List begun, Fall, 2008.)

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Letzer's Deli, Franklin Ave., 3/22/12.
Clutch, Minnesota Ave., 3/22/12. (Moving to Tres Jolie).
High Desert Gallery, Minnesota Ave., 3/22/12.
Tart, Bond St., 3/3/12.
El Caporal West, Franklin Ave., 2/24/12
Bo Restobar, Franklin Ave., 2/9/12.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 2/9/12.
Arts Central, Brooks St., 2/7/12.
Typhoon!, Bond St., 2/5/12.
Gatsby's, Minnesota Ave., 2/5/12
The Dog Patch, Minnesota Av. 1/9/12.
Bend Mapping, Bond St., 1/9/12.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St. 1/9/12 (Moving into Tres Jolie)
Bond Street Grill, Bond St., 11/20/12.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 10/11.
Azu, Wall St., 10/25/11.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Av., 10/11.
Bourbon St., Minnesota Ave. 10/12/11.
Curiosity Shop, Minnesota Ave., 7/11
Luluemon, Bond St., 8/26, 11.
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

(List begun, Fall, 2008

Wednesday Wats.

There was some amusing talk last week about "spring."

Can always tell a newbie.

We've got at least another month of this up and down weather, maybe even into May.

I think Fred Meyer and Costco and all the other chains get a double boost of profits from gardening supplies. Once in April, and then again in June to replace all the plants that froze from the first effort.

**********

An ambitious program for the Parks and Rec.

I'll vote for these, because these things are the very things that will keep Bend alive over the next decade or two. We need to face up to the fact that we're a tourist destination, and we must do everything we can to tidy up the region.

Not that the measure has a snowball's chance.

**********

"Region's Recover is Slower Than After 80's Recession." Bulletin, 3/21/12.

This may be true statistically, but I can tell you as someone who lived through the 80's recession, it felt much, much worse.

Especially from the perspective of a downtown business owner.

I don't think it was just because I was younger, though time seemed longer back then.

It seemed to take forever to come back.

Exactly what my little brain required.

I rather liked the Hunger Games books. I enjoyed the Harry Potter books. The Golden Compass trilogy was cool (though I don't think this was so much a kid's book as a book where the protagonists were kids.)

I say at the store: "Why should the kids get to be the only ones to read these good books?"

Anyway, I've been trying to branch out, and I've been mostly disappointed. Young adult is actually a pretty broad category, covering a pretty wide range of maturity. So the Dave Barry Peter Pan books lost me after one try, so did the Cornelia Funke's 'The Thief Lord.' A little too simplistic.

I liked the first chapter of 'Time Stops for No Mouse' (femme fatale mouse entices a clockstore mouse to adventure) but it was really way too young.

More than once, movies have driven me away from trying. I'll probably never read The Lightning Thief because the movie sucked, for instance.

I'm trying to remember how it worked when I was younger. There was a Children's section in the library, and then everything else. So as an adultish kid (big reader, 17 years old), I would still dip into book like the Narnia series.

I think Heinlein and Asimov and most S.F. was de facto 'kids' books, even when they weren't.

I see a little too much subdivision by parents in my store, (in my opinion, I don't say anything unless asked.) That is, parents won't pick out books that might be slightly too mature for their kids.

My parents felt that if I was ready to want to try to read something, I was ready to try to read it.

I remember a whole series of overreaches when I was young -- books that were too complex and mature, but either I read them anyway or gave up on them, and it didn't do any harm.

And sometimes an overreach turned out to be a turning point. A book that might have appeared too complex was exactly what my little brain required.

Killing baby cougars.

I mean, what are you going to do?

You've got an aggressive species moving into a new space, a species that is completely overbreeding and has no regard for life or limb.

I mean, as a species, we humans are a nasty lot.

**********

Ordered a trillion books. (Well, 400 or so.)

I stocked up on Game of Thrones and Hunger Games.

Now to find room for them all.

**********

Heh. The Pronghorn added 3% to its room fees and called it a "tax?"

Oh, sure. Blame the government for everything.

**********

Why, you, yellow bellied marmot!

The picture on the front page. So cute. So hungry.

**********

The Walking Dead season finale was great.

****SPOILERS!!!****

Very well staged and directed, lots of action. I liked the character trying to escape through the woods, running out of ammo, running out of weapons, running out of energy, and finally down to the last zombie but losing...and then the hooded samurai girl. Cool.

I like Rick, standing at the exit, half in and half out of the group, daring everyone to leave.

I liked the zombie hunt using the cars, and the mass of zombies backlit by the barn fire.

I didn't like the inexplicable turning on Rick at the end by characters who should know better.

***********

Whoa, Nelly.

The Bulletin has an editorial this morning which portrays the underlying thinking I think our political, economic, and media leaders have here in Bend.

The opening paragraph: "Now is the time to start thinking about a return of rapid growth in Central Oregon. Did we do it well last time around? What can we do better when it returns?"

"When it returns....?" Not if, but when.

If you look up the definition of an economic bubble, one of it's features is extrapolating future growth based on past growth.

I doubt we'll ever see the kind of growth we saw in the late 90's and early 2000's, because it was based on inflated housing prices. We'll probably never see that kind of bubble again in our lifetimes.

In all the bubbles I've been involved in at my store(fads, if you will), not one has ever returned. Once they burst, they are gone. They may come crawling back, taking years to cover the same ground that once took months.

It wasn't long ago, that most of the economists were worried about a deflationary spiral. A negative feedback loop. Which is also a feature of burst economic bubbles.

The Bulletin asks for "smart" leadership, "thinking about increased infrastructure."

But what if the smart move is to wait to spend on infrastructure until you actually have a need for it?

H. Bruce had this comment:

"Did you see the Bulletin editorial this morning telling us we need to get ready for the next growth spurt? Bend will never get off the roller coaster of boom-and-bust because the powers that be -- the Builder-Developer-Realtor Axis and its toadies in the media -- don't want to. They'd rather have the chance to make a killing during the booms than have sustainable prosperity. Why? Because they have the resources to ride out the busts. It's only "the little people" who lose their homes and livelihoods when the bubble bursts."

I don't think we're going to have another boom for a long time to come. If we're lucky, we'll take baby steps toward small growth. I'm thinking a decade, not a few years.

I'm not saying we shouldn't plan. The Bulletin is right about that: but I think the planning needs to be more in the nature of contingency -- instead of outright spending on infrastructure we may not need for years and years.

The one thing they probably should do is probably the one thing they won't do: make growth pay for growth. Put into place fees that make whoever does the future development pay for the development. I predict that the trend will be the opposite, just like last time. The pressure will be to lower the fees to spark development.

Thus creating the very problems the Bulletin is warning against.

Mostly, I just wanted to point out that I think even thinking about "rapid growth" is way too premature. Any growth would be nice.

"Rapid" is relative, I suppose. But I would be willing to bet that we'll never again see the rate of growth we saw during the boom years.

It's like an addiction. It will also take years for those who experienced the boom to realize it ain't coming back.

Ri - dic-u-lous.

Lots of movement in downtown stores which I'm pretty sure are going to happen, but I'm waiting for official word.

I've decided the point of my Comings and Goings list isn't breaking news -- but being accurate and a record of what's happened. I won't post rumors.

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The latest statistics from the Bulletin about the local economy are interesting.

Simply put, we're still going sideways.

My own business seems to be on a bit of an upswing, but these ups and downs have more to do with internal dynamics than local dynamics.

There was some mention in the article of things maybe turning upward later in the year.

Ridiculous.

I think we're in such a stagnant position, that any real improvement is years down the road.

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The U.S.A. today has an article about how one 'needs' 150K per year just to live a 'good' life.

Which, as far as I can tell, is about the top 3 or 4% of Americans.

Ridiculous.

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Had me looking at household net worths' again: the mean average is something like 450K. But the Median average is something like 90K.

That other 360K is owned by the billionaires.

Ridiculous.

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There is simply no way the rents should be going up in Bend, if we truly had a free market.

We have tons of housing sitting outside the market.

The housing manipulations around here are ridiculous.

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Everything is ridiculous. Heh. I know, real insightful. I just wanted to sound out the word. Ri-dic-u-lous!

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Being judgmental about a business I know nothing about.... I hate that.

But here I'm going to do it anyway.

Linda and I were visiting Sunriver awhile back, and dropped in on a co-op art gallery.

I don't get the economics of galleries -- plenty of stuff I'd buy at much lower prices. Nothing I'd buy at the marked prices. Now, I understand that art must be paid for. There is probably justifiable reasons for such prices. Maybe I'm cheap for not wanting to pay them.

But, really?

I've been looking for years for a painting or photograph that I simply MUST have, but it hasn't happened yet. (I have a blank spot in my study that I'm just waiting to fill.) The thing I was noticing about most of these gallery photographs is that they are manipulated, photoshopped and altered to a ridiculous extent. Landscapes, and especially animal pictures are just a little too cute.

Now I know that the appearance of the photo depends on all kinds of factors, natural and unnatural, but there seems to me a level of interference in these photo's that turns me off. Mostly it's to make them prettier or more exotic.

I've kind of wanted a photo of the central Oregon mountain skyline. I wouldn't mind if they squeezed the mountains slightly closer, but basically I'm looking for a fresh, untouched silhouette.

Though, when I think about it, it's kind of weird that I want a picture inside the house that is a duplicate of what I could see walking outside....

For the price of some of these gallery pictures, I could buy myself a nice camera, take tons of pictures until I get one I like, and print it up myself!

Of course, I know it isn't that simple. But with digital cameras --- it almost IS that simple.

Friday fuds.

There must be a "Pain of Death" injunction for Hunger Games, since I know they've already had a "premiere" and there have been no reviews. What are they afraid of?

But, like I said, I'm not going to speculate anymore.

It's not like I'm not going to go see it.

(O.K. they are starting to trickle out. Mostly positive.)

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Cash mobs? Descending on small businesses?

Eh.

Hey, good idea! I wonder who we could target? Let see...a small business, maybe in downtown Bend, selling nice things.

Who could we pick?

Someone who sells fun stuff, or good stuff (like books -- books are good, right?)

So.....who should we descend upon?

Ah, hem.

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When I finished my manuscript of I'M ONLY HUMAN, I still hadn't read about 5 chapters at writer's group. Since then, I've read 2 of those chapters, and they pretty much shredded them.

Methinks I've still got work to do.

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I have assembled a huge book order.

I've been very patient over the last 2.5 months, ordering only moderate amounts of books.

Almost all the books on the order are either books I have already sold before or books I'm pretty positive I can sell in the future. I always try to add a classic author, who I then keep in stock. This time, it's Saul Bellow, and adding to Dostoevsky.

Bringing in all the Terry Goodkind books, some more of the Patrick O'Brien books, and so on.

I think it's working.

"Jewelry in weird places."

This is Mike Hollern's description of the type of people Bend needs to attract, "they're creating the jobs of the future. And we need to keep attracting them here."

Oh, and "weird tattoos." (Also, I assume, in weird places.)

I assume these are real jobs for real people. (Inside joke.) He's got a way with words.

I buy that these two guys, Hollern and Bill Smith have "played" ... "the most instrumental roles in transforming Bend from an isolated mill town"..."to a world class tourism" area.

What's not asked in the article in the Bulletin, "Planning for Big Growth in Bend," is whether this is a good thing.

250, 000 people?

It seems to be taken for granted that this is what we all want.

Still, I can't argue with the idea of a decent 4 year college. A more educated populace would be great.

I always go back to the type of jobs we're likely to produce around here -- service and tourism and retirement jobs. Leavened by medical and educational?

If we're lucky, maybe we can create a high-tech center.

But, really, the only way I can envision a 250K town is to have a core of wealthy and/or retired folk, surrounded by a bunch of minimum wage service workers. A gated town, if you will.

Like I said, is this what we want?

To be fair, I'm not sure what the alternative is.

Thursday thuds.

I mentioned the first 7 days of the month were smoking hot, and how I didn't trust it.

Sure enough, the next 6 days saw a 40% drop.

Ain't retail fun?

I'm still above average, and still above last year, but ---

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I refuse to watch COMIC BOOK MEN.

I can tell from the ads that it's wrong, wrong, wrong. It accentuates all the wrong things.

No, I don't want to buy your fanboy thing. Really.

No, I don't know what it's worth.

No, I don't want to hear about how you 'used to' really be into comics.

No, I really don't like to tease or haze either employees or customers.

No, I'm not really that interested in aggressively clever nerdy fanboy talk. I'd much rather have just a normal conversation.

No, most comic readers are just normal people. (And so are most comic book store owners...)

No, I will not have an orgasm over seeing your Wonder Woman #1. Sorry to disappoint. I'm about the reading.

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Having gone to C.O.C.C. in the mid-70's, it blows my mind that it costs around 4000.00 a year.

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Tetherow developer asks for an extension.

Well, of course he does.

And he'll get it, too.

The cool stuff sells.

I was talking in an earlier post about the "availability" problem when it comes to creating a dream store.

A dream store would have only the coolest stuff.

Problem is, the cool stuff sells.

Most product has a production run, and that's it. They don't keep making it. Only the biggest trends continue in production, and if they do that, chances are they are stocked in Walmart and Target and so on.

So most "cool" stuff is offered for a short time, and then it's gone.

One of the best things that has happened in my store is the ability to buy good graphic novels and good novels on an ongoing basis. I was so accustomed to the transitory effect of cards, comics, and toys going through the store and disappearing, that it took awhile for me to cotton onto the advantages of evergreen product.

Catch- 22 or The Alchemist or Sometimes a Great Notion will just keep selling and selling and selling.

Same thing with graphic novels like Watchmen, or V for Vendetta, or Return of the Darknight.

So how do you make a bookstore work?

You get more books and you get more better books.

If I may be allowed to repeat: You get MORE books and more BETTER books.

You identify which books sell and you get more. I've got dozens of books that aren't on any best-seller list but they sell consistently and often.

Unfortunately, there is no such advantage to most toys and apparel and cards and other paraphernalia.

Let me give you an example: I was offered little windup Tardis's and Daleks. (Dr. Who.) Reasonably priced at around 12.00. So I ordered a case of 6 each.

They sat for about a week and didn't sell, but got lots of comment.

Another week went by and they started selling, so I took a chance and ordered another case of each. By now, the sales-velocity was speeding up, and I ordered another case.

But they were unavailable.

If I had to guess, I probably slipped in at the last minute to get those second cases. Will they make them again? Possible, but not probable. I have a couple of Daleks left, but no Tardis.

(Which brings up the classic situation -- customer really likes something; customer walks away; customer comes back but the thing is gone; customer keeps coming back and the thing continues to be gone....customer disappointed in you.)

And that, in a nutshell, is why it is so hard to have the dream store. Because you can't reliably stock it.

You order this stuff in advance, mostly. You take a chance on each order, so you can't go crazy. Some of the items you think are the coolest show up and they don't sell, for some reason or another.

So you order moderately, and if it sells you try to get more. Most often, it seems, if it is really cool it is already gone.

No worries, there is a steady stream of cool stuff in the pipeline, and if you are any good at guessing what people want, you'll always have at least some cool stuff in stock. But to have a huge dream store that keeps the cool stuff in stock all the time, that would be much harder.

I have a little tactic I use in my ordering.

I ask myself. "If this item didn't sell, would I mind still having it in my store?" If it passes this test, it is much more likely that I'll order it.

And sure enough, what's left in stock are these types of items: cool things that for whatever reason, packaging, prices, timing, obscurity, quality, or so on don't sell right away.

The "dream store" would have the coolest stuff, and keep having the coolest stuff.

Problem is, the cool stuff sells.

There are things you can do. For instance, raise the price so high that no one buys it. You risk antagonizing the customer if you do this, so you have to ask yourself if the glow of having the product is worth more than the stink of it being so high priced.

Or you can downplay it, almost hide it, so that only the most savvy will recognize how cool it is. (Frankly, the problem of stocking would be so much easier if "cool" didn't depend in most cases on other people saying it's cool -- I can't tell you the number of times I've seen something come in and went "Wow." And then waited months for other people to start saying "Wow." By which time, I can't get more.)

I have another tactic here: sometimes, the cool stuff is so inherently expensive that no one can really afford it, no matter how cool they think it is. I'm not overpriced -- the product itself is simply high priced.

So that's why I have a $700.00 cast-iron Raygun, or a $400.00 lifesized brass Iron Man helmet, or a $200.00 Stormtrooper biker statue.

Of course, I have to be able to afford carrying product that won't sell for a long time, and takes up space of stuff that might sell.

But if it's cool enough, it more or less acts as my advertising.

And then, after about five years, I have a customer waltz in (like yesterday) and buy my Star Wars Stormtrooper statue.

(And it's gone...)

I know some of you are probably thinking, "Well, duh. Isn't the very essence of retail to have the cool stuff for sale?"

What I'm trying to say is that I think it's insufficiently understood that it isn't so much a matter of knowing WHAT cool stuff to carry, but HOW to get it and keep it.

That is much more difficult than it looks.

An example I always use, is Star Wars. I'm offered cases of Star Wars toys, but I don't get to choose what is in those cases. I can sell Yoda and Boba Fett all day long, but I will usually get a case of "random background characters" plus one minor character everyone recognizes plus maybe a major character that everyone already has. (Luke, say. Or Obi-wan.)

I put six Star Wars Pez's out the other day. One Stormtrooper, one Yoda, and a bunch of no name others. Sure enough, I've already sold the Stormtrooper and the Yoda (even at a higher price.) I'm left with a bunch of pez's that may sell someday when someone wants some candy. And this will happen every time.

The cool stuff sells.

Because of timing, and pricing, and stocking issues -- the problem with retail isn't not knowing what to carry, but figuring out how to get a hold of enough of what to carry, and not get buried by all the other stuff you have to buy in order to get the cool stuff.

Why develop what isn't developing?

It looks to me like Tetherow is dead in the water.

If you don't believe me, just take a drive out there and look around.

The county ought to take the security bond and spend it on needed infrastructure -- elsewhere.

It looks all the world to me like the county got conned by the developers. A little game of three card monte -- (4-card, 5-card?) Who's the developer, look for the developer, he ain't here.