Penny's Galleria is now 1000 Wall.

What's with the naming after numbers? New fad, I guess.

I was reading a story about "when" someone should change their logo, to be more "up to date." Frankly, that has never occurred to me. I've had the same flying horse logo since the beginning and why on earth would I change it?

Being in the same location for 30 years, I may be the last "unimproved" space downtown, heh. (Well, I did do a makeover about 20 years ago.) I'd love to replace the ceiling, the lights, the carpet, give everything a fresh coat of paint, but I have nightmares about moving all the stuff in the store.

Most people just see the product plastered all over the store, and not much past that.

Does everything have to be fancy? Can't a little funk be allowed to survive?

I have called downtown a case of "failing upward." Every time a business goes out of business, the next business (or landlord) makes improvements which raises the rents which then make it that much harder for the next business to survive.

The vacancy rate and rent rate are based more on whether there is another business lined up to take the space, than whether anyone is actually making money, which is fine as long as there is always someone lined up.

Not much anyone can do about it. Penny's Galleria become "1000 Wall" is just a classic case of gentrification. I'm sorry that downtown is losing it's last vestiges of Funk, but the process is too far along to reverse now.

LATER: Was telling Linda about changing the logo. "What am I going to do, change my logo to something more cyber looking?"

"Yeah."

"You know, like changing the flying horse into something metallic looking, or steampunkish...."

"Yeah...."

"Actually, that's kind of a cool idea."

February results.

Taking 12 days off was just too much. Especially since with just one intervening working week, I'd done the same thing just before that.

I'm feeling a little out-of-place out-of-time at the store.

Thing is, I really like my store, I like being there. I'm taking advantage of the fact I have a good crew right now, but I wouldn't mind working more days.

When I do work, it's rather exhausting. Lots of work saved up -- orders, bill paying, stocking, and all the things I'm unwilling to delegate. Though I'm delegating more and more, little by little.

Trying to coast through the late winter and early spring, and then gear up again for summer and the second half of the year. The store got so stocked at Christmas, that I'm somewhat living of the fat of the land.

We've now beaten last year for the last 8 months. This month, we really did well. Up by 22%, which was even more of an increase than Christmas. (If the snow storms hadn't hit in the last three days of the month, it would have been even better.)

Every category was up, which hasn't happened in a long time. The store just feels self-sustaining right now.

I forgot the leap year.

I'm going to say, 20% better, taking out the extra leap day.

Hey, I can live with that.

Letting friends hold my baby.

Ended up making five copies of the manuscript. Used up pretty much three ink cartridges; (21.99 each) but it appears that copying at Kinko's or anywhere else I've looked would cost even more. (When did retail copying become so expensive? When we stopped using them so much?)

This whole writing a book is actually costing me; trips, supplies, employees taking over hours. Didn't expect that.

I have handed out four manuscripts to volunteers, who are willing to read and critique. At first, I was just going to print out a couple, but decided the more suggestions for improvement, the better.

I didn't actually ask anyone to read it -- I just sort of dangled it in front of them, and if they offered, I took them up on it. With the understanding that if they got bogged down for any reason (too busy, really don't like it) they can give it back in a week or two and just say they didn't have the time...

I'd love it if I didn't have to completely rework the damn thing, but I'm guessing from what I'm hearing back so far, I probably will. The goal is the make it a better book. I'm taking the difficulties of each stage as the difficulties of that stage, and feeling fortunate that I didn't know how many times I'd have to work on the damn thing before I started.

Damn thing.

Makes me nervous to give it to people, but better to make as many improvements as possible before I put it before the world.

Sometimes a deal ain't a deal.

I was talking to people at the writer's group about stores, and how appearances can be deceiving and how sometimes the fact that a store looks prosperous can actually mean the opposite. And vice versa.

People are easily fooled by outward appearances. I'm the same way, I'm sure, about things I know nothing about.

How can the appearance of prosperity mean the opposite? Well, the amount of money a person is willing to spend on appearance is not predicated on how much money they actually make. So sometimes it means they have the extra revenue, but sometimes it means they are spending money they don't have. If it's the latter, then it just puts them further behind.

The article in the Bulletin this morning about "Time Well Spent" was interesting. It's one of my favorite subjects. How often I see people walk away from an item they want because it's full retail -- thinking they'll get it cheaper elsewhere.

In my mind, even if they do eventually get the item for half price, the amount of time and energy they spent getting the savings is wiped out, more often than not. Not to mention, in my store I often carry the full priced item FOR THE VERY REASON that I can't find it cheaper, and the customer is also less likely to find it cheaper.

High demand used books sell very quickly, and more often than not, my store won't have it in stock. What's more, most other stores won't have it in stock. But most people just won't believe that and will go in a fruitless, frustrating search. I call it "instant karma." So add that to the time and energy level, and you're probably spending even more.

The article splits consumers into "satisficers" and "maximizers."

Satisficers "...make a decision as soon as they find what fits the bill..."

Maximizers "...consider all options to make a choice."

"Those studies say "satisficers" are happier.

Getting back to my original point, about appearances being deceiving, there is this:

"A stripped down, warehouse look, on the other hand, now communicates to shoppers that they're getting deals. 'everything about it speaks to volume and low price...'"

I embarrassed Linda the first time we went to Costco because I couldn't keep from scoffing at everything. Sometimes I feel like an alien, because something seems really clear to me and seems to fool everyone else.

It's all marketing, those concrete floors and high ceilings and echoes and cold temps and all the other bullshit. Over the life of a building like that, a few comfortable amenities would be a tiny, tiny fraction of the cost.

The savings are in the volume, and the fact that they make just as much per S.K.U. with a lower margin by making you buy bigger containers.

But it feels like a barn, so it must be cheap.

Found items in books.

The article in the Bulletin on found items in books: The Bookmark looks terrific in the pictures! How can you not want to visit that store? I really like the way Linda has arranged the store.

The funniest thing I ever found in a book was a pornographic letter some guy wrote to his girlfriend.

I found it disgusting. Every time I read it!

A manuscript in the hand, worth two in the head.

Printed up a copy of I'M ONLY HUMAN today (yesterday, writing this) on the home computer. Took two & half hours.

Came out, around 470 pages. The margins are kinda wide, s0 a little less than 200 words per page. (I think a paperback would more likely have around 275 to 300 words per page.)

So, anyway, somewhere between 80,000 and 90,000 words. Bigger than I thought it would be.

I had to print it out chapter by chapter, and then hand number the pages.

Dammit.

This needs to be formatted better -- maybe a little less margin, so it won't take so many pages.

There is a compiled version, but I can't figure out how to access it:

Oh, hell. In the middle of this blog I texted Jared and asked if he would come over and properly format this. I'd like to get this down to less than 400 pages in manuscript form.

*****


Later: Jared came over, did his magic.

I was able to print out two more copies, just feeding the paper tray once in awhile. Took one & half hours per manuscript. Slightly more concise, about 425 pages.

Turns out to be exactly 85,900 words. (Good guess above, heh?)

There it is, stacked on the table.

It feels more real somehow to have an actual manuscript in front of me. It also makes me realize how much work it was!

Don't know how good it is, but there it is: I at least wrote it. As long as I'm not completely done, I can still try to improve it. Told Jared when he took the first printed copy to look to help make the story "fun."


What have I learned? That the writing "process" is indeed super important to me.

I think I went about it much better than ever before, much more effectively. There are a few refinements I want to make to the process the next time, but the basic approach was right.

I'm giving my critiquers a month to get the manuscript back. (Hopefully they'll have plenty of suggestions, corrections.)

I'm going to give myself a complete mental vacation from it. Then do one final draft.

A bag of antlers strikes a pose!

Managed to dvr the second half of the Academy Awards, and rushed through it.

Meh.

But that's just the way they are, always have been.

Lots of comments online on how unworthy The Artist was, and why would anyone go see a black and white silent movie set in the 20's?

And my reaction, instead of being defensive is, meh. So don't go see it, it's your loss. I thought it was a really feel good movie and very clever and I don't object to it's winning at all. Though I suspect in hindsight it will look like a weak contender. (By the way, I know everyone plans to wait for it to be on T.V., but I think it works much better in a theater.)

I liked Hugo, too, but I think The Artist was more feel-good.

Other reactions.

Billy Crystal. Oh, that's why I don't color my hair.

Apparently Peter Lorre told his son to forget about acting. Move to France and produce movies!

I kept wanting the snack girls to start hurtling popcorn to the far seats....heads up!

Strike a pose, Jolie!

***********

"Jack Elliot" brings an article on Naked Capitalism to my attention. "Debunking the 'Housing Has Bottomed' meme."

Kind of the same take I have on "shadow" inventory. There is no way that Bend has had a significant drop in inventory -- there were just too many houses built, too many underwater houses. Whether they show up on current inventory stats or not.

And I like what the author says about "waiting a couple of quarters" before deciding.

Well, exactly.

After getting involved way too early on some fizzled out trends, and getting out way too late, I came up with a rule of thumb for my business:

Don't be the first in, or the last out.

If you wait for the first 20% of the way on the up curve, you've done well. If you get out of a trend in the last 20% of a down curve, you've done well. Don't be greedy or impatient and think you'll guess the bottom or the high. If you do, go buy a lottery ticket right away, because you're on a roll.

**********

My cat refuses to lose weight. She figured out after a week or two that we're cutting back, and now she is constantly begging. Even I give in to her once in a while, but Linda doesn't stand a chance.

She has followed me everywhere I go while Linda has been gone. She's been lacking the usual hugs and cuddles.

**********

Started writing a poem yesterday, because three words came to me: "a coward's ease."

So then my brain just starts coming up with juxtaposed words that sound intriguing.

Batching It.

skidding snores on
the boundaries of sleep
other motors
vibrate bones
on slopes of slumber.

unchecked solitude,
a coward's ease,
of bald itch and slippery bides
echoing drips
and hectoring drowse.

plaster seams
plowed in by snow
tropical dreams
and unwashed dishes
that napping hides

Sunday suds.

One thing I wish I had done with this blog is keep a list of how often over the last five years the local real estate community has said,

"We've hit bottom!" or

Never a better time to buy!"

It would make for entertaining reading.

**********

How can you not like a day like this? White snow, blue skies, just the right amount of crisp in the air. San Diego will never have a day like this.

Come on, Bruce. Give it up.

***********

Ah, Hah!

I KNEW brewing your own beer was dangerous!

**********

I guess I'm going the skip the Academy Awards this year. I just don't seem to be interested.

Besides, my DVR is nearly full from all the shows I'm saving up for the Return of Linda. And I'll be damned if I'll watch the show live.

**********

Just read five days worth of Twitter.

I still don't get the appeal.

**********

I've gotten pretty good at weaning myself off fast foods as I've gotten older. I don't go to McDonald's very often.

I'm batching it this week, and got tired of my own fixings, so went and got a fries and 20 piece mcnugget. Thing about the mcnuggets, is I can reheat them. In fact, for some reason they taste better reheated.

**********

Printing up the manuscript.

Hard to believe that once upon a time I wrote all my manuscripts on a typewriter. A mind boggling amount of work (and wasted paper.)

Back in the day, the draft I just finished probably would've been the draft I sent off to the publishers. Not that it is totally ready, but the idea of typing yet another draft would have been unthinkable, (as well as expensive and time consuming.)

By this time, I was usually pretty sick of the whole thing and just wanted it out the door. I was pretty obsessive/compulsive looking back on it. Most of the fiddling around wasn't all the helpful, and there was so much wasted effort, that I would lose sight of what was effective and what wasn't.

And frankly, I needed the money. I was in a hurry to get on with it.

I always harbored the hope that some professional editor would magically fix everything that was wrong with it with a few swipes of his red pen.

Not that I did myself any favors. I may have even subverted my career a little by not being more patient. Hard to know. Some of the books probably never were good enough, others seemed to come close.

The first book took forever to write, but the second and third books seemed to come relatively easy. I was on a roll, and I think that sort of misled me into thinking it would easy from then on.

I know now, that I definitely should have taken more time over the 4th and 5th books. Even today, I'm not inclined to try to revive them.

The sixth book got a big workover, way past the point where I really wanted to keep working on it. I twice made changes based on different editor's recommendations, and I think the book was improved, but man I wanted to get on with my life. It seemed to be the book that was always -- just --- a --- little -- too --- short --- of --- the ---goal.

The seventh book should have have another rewrite, I can see now, much as I liked it. Maybe someday I might even try.

I read some advice once that I think was correct: get working on with the next book.

Anyway, I'm not quite in as much of a hurry today. Nor do I need the money. I feel secure that something will go online some time soon, so I'm trying hard to do it right.
I'm sometimes confident, sometimes not: but it doesn't matter, I can only be as good as I am, and comparing myself to others is useless.

This draft is still a little rough, but I think it's time to get others opinions. Then take a little break from it, then come back and do a final draft.

Dear Editor.

This is what I'm going to put on the front of the manuscript:


Dear friends,

I'm serious about wanting as much criticism as you can manage to do.

Except the "YOU SUCK!" variety. You know, try to keep it constructive, at least.

Editing and spelling are fine, but I would also urge additions and subtractions. Just take a red pen and have at it. There are enough words here that if you think something should be cut, say so, if you think something needs more, say so.

I'd rather too much critique than too little.

I can work with what people suggest -- On the other hand, a blank page is a blank page.

Suggesting wholesale changes to the plot are O.K, though I'm not sure I'd be ready to do an entire revamping of the thing. Completely changing the plot is a huge can of worms. So try to offer suggestions that improve what's there, within reason.

I think I'm pretty good about accepting people's critique -- I've spent 32 years in a writer's group, though the writer's group isn't brutal, they can still tell me what I don't want to hear sometimes.

The goal is to make the book better. Whether it's a good book in the end, or a mediocre book or a bad book, anything that makes it better than it is, is my goal.

Thanks for looking, and if it just seems too hard or too much, please return the manuscript promptly and I promise you I won't take it wrong -- I totally understand. I'd be the same way. :).

But please don't hang on the manuscript if you don't intend to do anything and give me a chance to lasso someone else to the task, O.K.? If you are going to actually read and comment, try to do so within the month. Otherwise, go ahead and give it back.

Someday soon this will be available for others to read, and I appreciate any help you can give me, guys, so they'll find it enjoyable, hopefully.

Thanks for helping.

Duncan.

Hey gang, let's create a bookish thingy!

Done with the second/second draft. Basically, I started at Chapter 20 and went through to the end, Chapter 34.

I probably should still tack on a little epilogue.

I have a couple more days to spruce it up here and there, and then I'll print out the hard copies. At first, I was only going to do a couple copies, but then I thought, why not get as many people involved in the process as possible? So I'm thinking more like 5 copies I'll pass around.

With the understanding that the people will actually read it and make critiques. If not, I'll ask them to return the manuscript in a week or so with the "I didn't really have time to do it" no harm, no foul excuse easily accepted.

I'm serious when I say the more criticism the better. Even if I disagree with criticism, it usually spurs me to make it better. It gives me something to work with.

Hopefully get it all back within the month or two so I can take a month or two to write the last draft.

Jared was talking about the idea of "the click"; that moment when you know you've got a piece right -- art, writing, whatever -- and need to stop.

I've never had the click moment in a novel, I think because there are too many parts. I think, in fact, you could click every chapter and the book as a whole still doesn't hang together.

We've got some interesting possibilities lined up; illustrations, and possible short movie clips of chapters. I'm doing the Midnight in Paris thing and have my main character (who's eternal) meeting such writers as Edgar Allen Poe and H.P. Lovecraft and Tolkien and R.E. Howard. Some local filmmakers are talking about making scenes.

And we'll be looking for artists to illustrate, as well.

I'm not exactly sure what Jared has planned for the online interactive things, but I know that I'll try to stay available for anything.

This could be kind of fun, almost collaborative. Lots of things are possible when you're not worried about the money.

Downtown Comings and Goings. 2/25/12.

El Caporal West is gone, and a place called Amanda's is taking their place. However, Jon at Hack Bend thinks it's pretty much the same restaurant. Nevertheless...

Also, though this doesn't make the list, it is interesting, Thump Coffee has changed hands.

Clearly, the restaurants have had the biggest turnover downtown, which probably doesn't surprise anyone. Though I never knew until I started this list how many of the same people are involved in starting restaurants (and leaving them...)

NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

Amanda's, Franklin Ave., 2/24/12
Barrio, Minnesota Ave., 2/12/12.
Rescue Moderne, Harriman, 1/12/12.
Letzer's Deli, Franklin Ave. 2/12/12.
Navidi, Minnesota Ave., 2/9/12.
Mazza, Brooks St. , 2/9/12.
La Magie Bakery, Bond St., 1/6/12
Brother Jon's Ale House, Bond St., 12/10/11.
What Lola Wants, Wall St. , 12/2/11.
Jackalope Grill, 10/12/11.
Gypsy Soul, Wall St. 10/12/11.
Colour N' the City, Tin Pan Alley, 10/12/11.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St., 10/12/11.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 10/12/11.
Ruby, Minnesota Ave., 10, 12/11.
Kariella, Lava Road, 8/24, 11.
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

(List begun, Fall, 2008.)

BUSINESSES LEAVING

El Caporal West, Franklin Ave., 2/24/12
Bo Restobar, Franklin Ave., 2/9/12.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 2/9/12.
Arts Central, Brooks St., 2/7/12.
Typhoon!, Bond St., 2/5/12.
Gatsby's, Minnesota Ave., 2/5/12
The Dog Patch, Minnesota Av. 1/9/12.
Bend Mapping, Bond St., 1/9/12.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St. 1/9/12 (Moving into Tres Jolie)
Bond Street Grill, Bond St., 11/20/12.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 10/11.
Azu, Wall St., 10/25/11.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Av., 10/11.
Bourbon St., Minnesota Ave. 10/12/11.
Curiosity Shop, Minnesota Ave., 7/11
Luluemon, Bond St., 8/26, 11.
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

(List begun, Fall 2008.)

Falling for the big guy.

Greg Oden just went in for ankle surgery -- isn't that the second surgery this year?

Meanwhile, the Thunder are tied for the best record in the NBA, led by the awesomely talented Keven Durant.

You know, the guy the Blazers could've taken instead of Oden.

Nearly as bad as taking Bowie, instead of some smaller guy named -- what was that name again? Micheal something?

Oh, yeah. The best player of all time. Micheal Jordan.

So Blazers, next time you have a chance between a big guy and an awesomely talented small guy -- pick the small guy, O.K.? (Unless, you know, its James or Shaq heh.)

Friday fuds.

I slept in until 10:00 this morning, which never happens. Usually I'm up by 8:00 or 8:30.

I needed to take Dad to his Doctor's coffee conclave, and rushed on some cloths, brushed my teeth, gulped some coffee and headed out. I hate rushing like that.

Anyway, all I can think is that with Linda gone to Oklahoma, I'm not being woken by her morning sounds (not that she's loud or anything.) I also started watching the series Lillyhammer on Netflix, which I couldn't stop watching, so went to bed later than I normally would with Linda here. (The show has some really cute "fish out of water" moments (gumpah out of Brooklyn moments?) -- and a lot of lame ones. Nearly a very good show, but not quite.)

So, if I was single, I'd probably be staying up late and sleeping late and all that.

**********

On the following issues, please understand that I'm just speculating and could be wrong and have no inside knowledge. In fact, I'm not even going to use names here, so you can just see all this as a hypothetical...


**********

The Restaurant situation in Bend seems kind of strange to me. There are owners who seem to be trying to declare personal bankruptcy, when it's pretty clear the debt comes from the businesses -- which is puzzling. I mean, there are several ways to read it. Maybe they are doing the honorable thing, and taking a personal hit. Or maybe the opposite, they figure their true wealth is in the business and they are already in trouble with their personal debt, so they can take care of two problems.

I don't know.

How does a business own manage to raise the money for new restaurants, if they are having money problems?

I'm guessing that their growth rate and overall revenue were pretty good. I'm guessing their cashflow absolutely sucked.

See -- growing rapidly will automatically show an increase in revenue. Your overhead may fall within reasonable perimeters.

But growth puts a huge strain on cashflow.

Ironically, one of the ways to address this problem is to grow even more -- borrow money, based on your good sales, and then use at least some of the money to stave off the cashflow problems.

I more or less did this. Back in the late 1980's I had spectacular sales -- increasing sales, but it was all going in service to keeping up with growth. So I went and borrowed money based on those spectacular sales. I didn't hide anything, but the loaners focused on the sales and the overhead, and not the cashflow. I'm guessing that these expanding restaurant empires laid out all the facts, but accentuated the growth and possible growth, and didn't point at the cashflow or possible problems.

Is that wrong? Is it illegal?

I don't see how. I've mentioned before, most small businesses necessarily have to leverage whatever they got, which is another word for risk.

When sportscards collapsed on me, then the overhead didn't look so good, and the cashflow got even worse.

So I think it's the wrong maneuver in the end, because it's a short term solution, and the cashflow problem will probably return.

Unless everything goes right.

You know, which never happens.

And when everything doesn't go right, you declare bankruptcy.

(Or like me, you live poor as a churchmouse for a decade. I paid off all the debts plus humongous interest, so no one was hurt but me and my family. )

Anyway, I'm just guessing here. But if I'm anywhere close to right, then each party was seeing what they wanted to see. Both parties can be both right and wrong.

On the other hand, how do you become managing partner to a new restaurant in the same space as a restaurant you failed in?

I don't understand high finance, or low.

**********

I'm not judging the guilt or innocence of the RPA director, just noting that he had a huge number of defenders on the KTVZ comments site when he was arrested.

I'll be interested to see if he gets as many defenders with this second arrest....

**********

"Bend Home Prices Dip in 4th Quarter." Bulletin, 2/24/12.

I stopped giving the advice of "Wait two years to buy a house" about two years ago. But I'm wondering if I couldn't safely still give the same advice.

At least, I don't think it would hurt.

But people need to buy houses when they need to buy houses, and when they can afford to.

**********

The usual doubts.

I admit, I'm feeling somewhat discouraged.

Do other writers have such doubts? I wonder. They probably wouldn't write if they didn't have a pretty big ego.

Anyway, all I can see is the weakness of the writing, right now. I mean, it's probably no worse than what I wrote years ago and which got published. But...I don't know, it's hard.

What does it take to write a good book?

I was thinking about a rough formula last night.

Talent+Work+Time (+Help.)

Talent, of course. Work, making the effort to do it. Time, giving yourself enough perspective to improve it. Help, this is a bonus if you can get it; editorial help.

So if the novel takes, say, a minimum of a 100 points to be good, how to apportion the different aspects?

Talent+Work+Time. (+Help).

Off hand, I'm going to say Talent is 50% minimum. That's what you start with, and without it, it's pretty hard to get to 100. But, let's say you're supremely talented and it gets you 80% of the way, and a little work and time and editorial help, and you're easily over the 100%. These are the really talented people.

I suppose there are guys out there who can only get say 40% of the way, and make up for it by taking a long time to Work on it. They really work at it, learn their craft, make up for the lessor talent through hard work. They take the time, the years, to learn how to get it done.

And there are people who have such a great concept, or outlines of a story, that they get a large percentage of Help. Their efforts are reinforced because they start strong. For me, this is a recipe for writer's block: waiting around for the killer idea.

Mostly, I think, these days you don't really get that editorial boost unless you are already an established writer -- one of those whose talent takes them 80% of the way.

My own abilities? I'm going to say middling, in the 50% range. I'm willing and able to put another 25 or 30% effort into getting it done, which still leaves me 20% short.

I think this is about where I was years ago. Probably had a bit less craft, and put in a bit more work, but ended up in a similar place. The books got published, I think, because they were timely.

That feels about where I'm at right now.

So what's left? How can I push myself that 20% to get over the line?

Editorial Help and Time, unless I get a talent transfusion. The time element really just means giving myself more time to Work on it. The time to get some inspiration. Some new perspective, some kind of trick to improve it.

I can count on the time, if I give it to myself. So I've decided to do that. I had already given myself a year, but a good third of that was wasted -- it wasn't until my Baker City trip about 4 months in that I got serious. I was hoping to be done by June, but I'll give myself more than that if I need to.

In both the editorial help and time, I guess I'm hoping for inspiration, some method that I can utilize to energize my book.

Editorial help? We'll see. But even if I get a boost from that, it's best not to expect to that to happen again and again. If it's hard work for me, and I'm the guy benefiting, I can't expect other people to do it for me. I know that people will often volunteer, without really realizing what they're in for.

Really, in the end, the writer is responsible for the book.

I'm deep enough in this book that I'll produce it, eventually. I'm want to bridge as much of the gap between the book as it is now and the book I envision, before I let it go.

Really? You can't call someone douchebag?

Not if you work for someone else, apparently.

What I thought interesting were the many comments on KTVZ about how the "customer is always right," therefore the owner or manager can never respond negatively to anything a customer might do

Obviously, the customer isn't always right? I mean, no one's always right.

To me, it's more of a slogan than a reality -- no more valid than, say, "New and Improved."

No one is allowed to abuse my employees. I've told them, if someone gets completely out of line, ask them to leave the store and I'll back them up.

It's called, firing the customer.

Sure its best not to lose your temper, to ignore most behaviors. I've been both very good about this, and very bad.

A few years ago, I tried to control some of the behavior I was seeing in my store, especially by young people, and it almost always ended badly. So I quit, about 4 years ago, saying anything. I just take most of the behavior, and most of the damage, and try to leave the area where it's happening.

I mean, obviously, if the behavior is WAY over the line, I'll still try to say something, but I try to be calm and non-accusing.

Even my wife, who on the Calm scale is a 10 (while I might be a 3 or a 4) has customers who do something so outrageous that she has to deal with them.

So the incident itself doesn't surprise me -- I had imagined a lot worse than "douchebag" when I first heard the story.

What surprises me is that people think that employees should take any abuse handed them with a smile.

Home Territory. I claim thee, Apple.

When I was younger, Redmond and Prineville and Madras were foreign countries. Especially Redmond, which was our homecoming rival, and which we automatically put down as a smaller, hickier town.

Now? It's all Central Oregon to me -- it's all part of my home territory.

So, when Apple goes to Prineville, I can't help but think that's good for all of us who live in the area.

Maybe because people from all three counties shop downtown -- it's all good.

Sometimes in the store, I'll ask, "Are you from around here?" and the customer will say, "No, I'm from Redmond " (or Sisters, or LaPine, etc.) and I'm always kind of amused and say, "To me, THAT is around here."

Heck, even Burns and John Day are kinda in my home territory. (If you want comics, say, or many of the other things I carry.)

So, Central Oregon, I mark you with this blog, You are my home territory.

A re-enforcing positive arc.

The store has really been humming along this month.

Last weekend was great and I wonder if the Winterfest didn't help. I've never said that events can't be positive -- what I try to maintain is that closing the streets is a boneheaded move, most of the time.

Events yes. Closing streets no.

So Winterfest is great, lots of people, who if they want to get away for a few hours can bop downtown.

This will be the eighth month in a row that we have beat last year, and like December it will be a significant increase. (January was hammered by weather, but we still squeaked out an increase..)

So why are sales so solid right now?

Don't laugh at the obviousness of my answer:

We are fully stocked and adequately priced.

Seems like a simple equation, except that I've spent most of my career trying to find that balance between inventory and price.

***For many years, I was so under capitalized, that I could only carry the basics.

***For many years, I had to subvert the pricing in order to get enough cash flow to pay off the debts.

***For many years, having more inventory didn't help because I didn't have enough foot traffic; I carried what my regulars wanted.

***For many years, the inventory I'm carrying either didn't exist or wasn't available to me.

***For many years, I stayed away from some inventory because I didn't think it would work for me -- new books, especially, but also board games.

***For many years, I sank money into inventory that by the time I established the line, stopped selling. (Either stopped selling altogether, or was taken away by the mass market.)

So it sounds simple to have great inventory and steady pricing, but it isn't all the easy to accomplish. Probably have to learn what to carry by experience. There is no magic formula about what to carry and in what quantities. (Except, a lot and a lot.)

The pricing is something that you have to gut out. It takes a bit a chutzpah to keep to your pricing when everyone else is being a discounter. Sometimes, you can't stick strictly the pricing or you lose all your marketshare. Still -- I think I've finally learned that marketshare or even gross sales aren't as important as profits and cashflow margins.

So -- if you are small specialty store, and you have the inventory that carries you through the ups and downs and you can ask a "retail" price, you have accomplished something.

You establish yourself as a store that is always full and interesting, and the pricing will follow. People may grumble and walk away, and you have to be willing to let them. If you are the guy who has what they want, and it's right there, a good percentage will buy. Your store becomes interesting enough to warrant the regular pricing.

Which gives you enough margin to buy more of the inventory.

If you can get there, it becomes a re-enforcing positive arc. I think they call it a virtuous cycle.


I have a great example of the virtuous cycle in the latest round of Magic. It's not a perfect example in that I do discount a little from retail -- but I don't discount anywhere near as much as most of my competitors, either locally or online.

So I got a batch of Magic in, and even though my competitors were selling boxes for just above cost (online) or very small margins (locally), I stuck to my prices. A week after they came out, I got a call from my wholesaler who said, "We can let you have three more boxes", as if they were doing me a great favor.

"I have (xx) number of boxes left," I said.

Silence on the other end. "Wow. Everyone else is sold out."

And here it is another couple of weeks later, and I'm still pretty well stocked. I've avoided the cashflow strain of having to sink more money into inventory. The inventory I have is selling slowly, maybe, but it's making money as it goes along. Extend that to the rest of the store, and you should always have enough material selling without cashflow problems.

So here I still have the inventory, I'm getting my pricing, and sales are more than adequate.

Sure, I could've have sold it out the way everyone else did, but to what purpose? Just a 10% drop in price represents 25% of profits, a 20% drop represents 50% of your profits.

You chase your tail in pursuit of sales.

It's hard to resist, especially if you're inexperienced. The customer will blackmail you, to some extent. "I can get this for (xx) online, but I'm willing to pay you (xx) extra."
Or course, the (xx) extra is still too little to make money. These might be friends and regulars telling you this.

But once that happens -- once an industry become dysfunctional, to the point where the only way you can keep your customers is to lose money, then you are better off letting those customers go. It takes guts.

If the virtuous cycle kicks in, though, you'll be rewarded in the end. A larger group of customer buying less, is safer than a smaller group buying more, no matter what the price.

Totally immersive experience.

Linda is driving to Portland tomorrow to visit son Todd, then flying to Oklahoma to visit son Toby, and she'll be back in 8 days.

I've decided to take those 8 days and make it a totally immersive writing experience.

Turn the T.V. off, and just do nothing but write (rewrite, edit) for 8 days.

I talk to myself a lot when I'm trying to work out a plot, which can be rather weird when other people are around. Even though Linda would understand. Plus, I know that I can flop on that couch or work at that table or whatever without infringing on her time and space.

This is a strange floating around the house, mulling things, laying on the couch, popping up and quickly scribbling when a phrase or idea comes along, staring into the fridge, walking around, laying down, slapping myself to the side of the head "Think! Oh, that's a great idea! Where did that come from?" sort of experience.

Somebody called it, living in the fictional dream. Very delicate, and any interruption, no matter how loving and mild, can derail that.

(Which is essentially the reason I didn't write for 25 years -- I couldn't work 48 - 60 hours a week keeping a business afloat and have any hope of staying in the "fictional dream" long enough to accomplish anything.)

The question that arises at this point in the book, is whether I can significantly improve the book through plain hard work. Do I lose freshness and perspective? Or am I just being lazy not making chances, trying harder?

How much can hard work substitute for talent?

Thing is, I'm lazy. I tend to think -- it's good enough.

Or hope that others can fix it.

There is also the time element. Working hard, then leaving it alone -- then coming back and working hard, I think works better than just grinding and grinding and grinding.

Also at this point in the book, I'm much less worried about squelching my creative urges. This is more mechanical -- the basic plot and characters are in place -- it doesn't matter as much if I rework a paragraph so many times that it loses freshness for me, as long as I know mechanically, that I've improved what I was trying to do.

Anyway, I am committing myself to Hard Work for the next 8 days -- and after that, I'll fall back on the "good enough" and let "others fix it" mode for awhile.

Hey, gang. Let's start a brewery!

I don't know anything about brewing, but from the outside it certainly gives the appearance of being a fad. I mean, I don't think you can grow exponentially for long without consequences.

There would seem to me to be a finite number of beer drinkers, so there has to be a zero sum result in the end.

However -- there may be a huge untapped demand. A potential reserve of quality micro-brew drinkers. (Just a fraction of the Bud crowd, for instance.)

And certainly, the local brewers can sell outside the area. Unless the same kind of exponential growth is happening everywhere.

What do you all think?