Murphys' back in town.

Interesting how things can go off the rails suddenly and for no good reason.

The Visa machine mistake (wrong account closed, no Visa service for a day) was probably mine, for not making it clearer. Still, I spent months, even years not making the change because I couldn't seem to get the right procedures of how to change. They don't make it clear or easy.

I make very few changes to things like banks, insurance, phones, etc. because Murphy Law resides there.

Then, yesterday, to not get FEAR ITSELF from Marvel was alarming. Biggest title of the last two years. The most I've ordered. Why THAT title?

I think I've gotten that ironed out, and I get a call from Linda telling me our landlords have put cement blocks between our store and the Mini Pet Mart.

I call the agent and tell her:

1.) We probably use the Mart's parking lot more than they use our parking lot.
2.) It cuts off two entrances to our store, which is NEVER a good idea.
3.) It narrows the entry so much that it might be more difficult to back up and maneuver.
4.)I can almost guarantee that people are going to bottom their cars on this barrier, especially at night or in the snow.
5.) The change was totally uncalled for and unnecessary.
6.) They could have ASKED us.

I could tell in talking to her that the change had been made and it was unlikely to be changed back.

Out of the blue.

A stupid decision I have no control over.

Interesting how people can assume you are going to like a change, and yet they didn't ask you. I'll get a promotional person in the door telling me they are closing the street on the busiest weekend of the year to put on a circus in front of my store, and they act surprised when I'm not delighted.

You know those scenes in movies where some take-charge person takes it upon themselves to order the meals for his dining companions?

Oh, no you will not! I'll order my own damn meal, thank you very much!

I've never thought of myself as a control freak, but of course I am. Not so much with other people -- I try to avoid that -- but with my environment. It's probably the reason I try to keep things simple, and not make too many changes.

It may be the reason I narrow my scope and focus.

It may even be the reason I own my own stores -- so I can control who and how I deal with people.

But the unpredictable elements are still there:

The customers....

and landlords.

Wednesday WTF's.

I wonder if the alleged plotters to kidnap the Columbia Sportswear chairwoman were taken in by the old ads.

You know, the ones that showed "Gertie" being run through all kinds of obstacles to prove that her clothing (and the old broad herself) could take a licking and keep kicking.

Maybe they thought she'd think it was a lark.

***********

Our tax system is weird. We have to take a dispersal from Lois's I.R.A. as if she was still alive and one year older....

I don't mind paying the taxes, but that's just kind of weird...

**********

Borders is moving their headquarters to Detroit.

That seems appropriate.

I mean, rents are cheap.

In fact, if major corporations are serious about saving money, they should ALL move to Detroit. It should feel familiar to them -- almost like outsourcing to a third world country.

That just makes too much sense.

**********

How wrongheaded is it for Redmond to lower to "slash" SDC's in half? Hey, Redmond, you don't need more houses, you need to sell the houses you got.

Couldn't they instead create incentives for people to buy existing homes -- lower property taxes on the first X number of years? Something? Anything? I mean, as long as your giving money away...

**********

Another instance of a regular customer listening to an outside source (in this case, a podcast) recommending titles and saying to me, "Too bad you don't have THOSE titles. I'd buy them."

"Let me look at that list. Right. Errrr....I have everyone of these titles...."

"Oh...."

**********

A couple years before my sister Tina died, she was offered a crazy amount of money for her house from a developer who wanted to take over the whole block.

I told her that for the amount of money she was offered, she could buy a house in my neighborhood on the east side, (Williamson Park), that was at least equal in land, sq. ft. and amenities as her house, and still have enough money left over to buy a second house.

I think she knew in her bones (literally) that she didn't have much time left, and wanted to stay in her long time home.

When she refused, they offered the equivalent of an even crazier amount of money in a huge house in one of their new developments.

Again, she turned them down.

They say you can't cheat an honest man. (Debatable). But I think if she had accepted, she probably would've lost her home, and never gotten either the other house or the money she was promised.

It falls under the rubric of -- if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. I knew it was too good, but I would have cynically taken the developers money, anyway.

In the end, she made the right decision -- and she made it for all the right reasons.

**********

"U.S. Cellular to offer smartphone class." Bulletin, 4/6/11.

That's just it. I don't want a phone smarter than me.

I don't want a phone that I have to take a class to learn how to use.

I want a -- well, you know -- a phone!

***********






Downtown Comings and Goings.

Frankly, there haven't been enough real changes to post this, but both KTVZ and the Bulletin have trumpeted seven "new" businesses, so here it is.

I've got one real new business, High Desert Lotus, which is in a space formerly occupied by an office inside a building on Bond St. Other than that...

I decided at the beginning of this list to include restaurants and retail, but not office type.

All the other businesses have been listed before.

There's a bit of disconnect between when a business is firmly coming in, and when they actually open. I go with the firmly announced -- the Downtowners appear to do it before, during and after and sometimes all three...

It does appear that the rate of turnover has slowed down...


NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(Fall, 2008 or so.)

Reader beware.

I've mostly ignored the Real Estate Blogs in Bend, because they are so obviously puff daddies.

You know, anyone who believe that nonsense probably deserves to be fleeced.

But when that nonsense strays over into the media, I call foul.

There was a piece on KOHD that proclaimed that rents were due to rise in Central Oregon.

You know, I kind of doubt this. But it certainly would be in the best interest of the real estate industry to make people BELIEVE this is true. They may even listen to the echo chamber and raise rents.

But is there a NEED for a raise in rents, with abundant empty and cheap housing and a falling populations?

Meanwhile, the Bulletin has an article: "Underwater Mortgages Could Rise in Oregon."

Well, yeah. The sun could rise tomorrow.

This quote seemed especially pertinent: ""Oregon remains largely dependent on wood products and construction industries..."

Well, that goes double for Bend.

"Until we can clear through these homes, we're not going to have people building homes."

What prompted the title of this blog and got me to write it, was this: The so called "experts" in the article neatly divide between people working for institutions who observe and monitor the real estate industry, ---- and those who work in the real estate industry.

The article also neatly divides between people who seem to have realistic appraisal of the market,----and those who seem to be horny bull moose nuts.

I'll let you guess which is which.

Books and Tech.

It's interesting that when all was said and done, both the New York Times and the San Francisco Chronicle are putting up paywalls.

I'm convinced that after much future damage to the marketplace and their own profits, the book publishers will realize that going full blast into digital wasn't perhaps the smartest move, and will retreat back to selling "book-books."

Just a guess.

It may not work -- for either newspapers or books, but it's probably their only chance of being profitable.

***********

Speaking of the N.Y. Times. The book review now has 15 different bestseller lists over 6 pages.

My reaction is: Never mind.

I guess I don't want to know THAT much.

I understand that they want to be more precise, give e-books their due, and I'm sure they are annoyed by the way books like Harry Potter can completely dominate the lists for years -- but really, overkill?

***********

Broofa makes a compelling case that e-books will take over on his Bend Tech blog.

As someone who doesn't even own a cellphone, I may be the worst person the gauge the effect of a new gadget.

As a store owner who has watched entire product lines disappear or diminish to alarming extents, I may be the best person to gauge.

If e-books reach pogs or anime or beanie babies level of abandonment, paper books are doomed. If they reach sports cards level of diminution , there may be a few survivors.

Yet I still sell sports cards, and even the occasional anime. I sell boardgames and card games despite the huge video game industry. I sell comics and books, despite the ready availability and cheaper prices in the mass market and the internet.

So, I don't believe I'm underestimating the impact, just saying that I think there will be ways to negotiate the process. There will be compensating factors along the way -- perhaps cheaper prices, increasing marketshare, and so on.

My guess is that the hugest impact will be on new hardcover bestsellers -- which in a way is a sign that the publishing industry was going off the rails already -- the prices have gotten pretty outrageous.

I still think they'll co-exist. Both e-books and book-books. Something like the way the movie industry still exists, despite T.V., and radio still exists, despite T.V. The cost structures will shake themselves out, new formats will be created, hybrids will spring up.

I feel like I'm pretty good at negotiating these hazards -- I've had lots of practice. So I think I can be pretty nimble...

At least over the next 3 to 8 years...

Interesting times...

Watch The Killing

The Killing, on AMC, is probably the most realistic seeming murder mystery I've ever seen.

It reminded me a lot of Prime Suspect. What was really amazing about it, was it showed the reactions of the victim's family in a totally believable way.

And shows how shallow most crime shows are, when they use the victim as basically a MacGuffin in service to the plot.

Though.... because it shows the grief so realistically, it might be hard to take on a week to week basis.

It's set in Seattle, and the constant rain and dreariness made me turn up the heat in my living room. After the show was over, I had to turn down the heat.

I loved the underplaying of the acting, (by the way, Michelle Forbes is a great actress) and the mostly lack of stereotypes. Good, good show.

(Had the wrong title --it's The Killing, not the Killers. Corrected.)

Life got in the way of my reading...

Linda has been wanting to see Red Riding Hood since we first saw a trailer for it.

We finally went yesterday. "Are we the only people?" I asked the ticket guy.

"Just about..."

There turned out to be two other couples. It was in Siberia -- which is what I call that little south shoot of the theater where dying and gasping movies are sent. (Sadly, Sucker Punch was already there...) The previews start, and I turn to my wife, "Oh, my god. These are all chick flicks. Which must mean the movie we're about to watch is a chick flick!"

As the plot started, the tall handsome aristocratic pale guy vying for the the young girl's love with a tall dark and handsome blue collar guy, I said, "I think I've SEEN this move...."

Anyway, the movie was about what I expected...

**********

I think we should treat that unemployment rate the same as the number of feet of water surrounding a guy who can't swim.

So saying that unemployment rate is down from 14% to 13.1% is a little like telling a drowning man, the water over his head is 13.1 feet high, instead of 14 feet high.

So hang in there!

Oh no it's up to my toe. (1% rate.)

Oh me it's up to my knee. (3% rate.)

Oh fiddle it's up to my middle. (4% rate.)

Oh heck it's up to my neck. (5% rate.)

Oh dread, it's up to my (glub, glub). (6% >>>>>>>)

**********

"I'm a luddite." Funny, my throw-away comment when Jordan (the Bulletin reporter) asked me why I didn't have any "gadgets" made it the front of the article.

Can't complain. It's true.

(I have no idea who that old grizzled guy they pictured under my name is....)

**********

So Martin Sheen's live show bombs.

I'm not surprised. It's fun to read a bunch of selected quotes from a rant; it's a whole nother thing to actually listen to a ranter live.

I should know, heh.

(Apparently, his second show went over better -- gee, preparation. What a concept.)

**********

I've gotten bogged down in a fantasy series, and have fallen off the 2 books a week pace. It sometimes happens that I start reading a book that is good enough to keep reading, but somehow isn't compelling. Bit of a contradiction, that.

**********

It also finally happened that I have last Sunday's N.Y. Times sitting unfinished, as the new one shows up. That's a whole lot of newsink.

O.K. I had a family reunion last week, which took up about four days.

Life got in the way of my reading.

***********

I've got the perfect solution for the guy who burned the Koran in Florida.

We airlift him to a square in central Kabul so he can explain why Christianity is superior to Islam, and why it was necessary to insult their beliefs. I'm sure his arguments will be so persuasive they'll all convert instantly.

I mean, surely such an outspoken fellow would have the courage of his convictions, and wouldn't place innocents in danger because of his actions.

**********

Been down so long it looks like up.

Calculated Risk has a chart showing the % job losses in post-WWII recessions, which look like a tangle of lines downward, which start to turn up -- except one line, which just keeps diving and diving. The current recession.

So the line starts to curve upward, and --lately -- is just nearing the bottom of every other recession. So -- we are basically where bottom of every recession other recession JUST STARTED RECOVERY.

But hey, it looks like up!

Book -- books.

So Linda and I were in the paper this morning, in an article about e-books versus books (or book books, as I call them).

I'm always amazed by how little of what one actually says actually makes it into the paper -- having to share space with other storekeepers and all.

Anyway, I wrote the following yesterday, in response to a comment on my Alien's April Fool's Day interview, but didn't want to publish it ahead of the article and possibly steal a march.
Really, only one duplicate comment -- the remark that e-books have "no soul, no funk," so I'll print as is.

***********

Boofa comments: "Bookstores are definitely going to take it in the shorts over the next ~10 years..."

Well, you know -- some bookstores.

Bookstores are beset by many problems, and have been for years. Most fail for internal reasons. I admit there is little margin for error -- but small indy bookstores haven't had a margin for error for decades now.

I figure that anyone who browses in my bookstore and then goes home and downloads a book was already the kind of customer who browsed my bookstore and went home and ordered it from Amazon or went out the Costco. I lost those customers long ago.

Border's problems were internally inflicted long before e-readers came around. Barnes and Noble stock is in the toilet, even though the last I checked their actual sales were pretty good.

I think everyone is extrapolating from the music industry....

It's still really, really early in the process, so it it's all guesswork. We're looking for things to compare it with -- but that's a little like fighting a new war with the last war's tactics.

It's a NEW THING!

I don't think it's going to play out the same way.

I don't think it NEEDS to play out the same way. Music is music -- and it seems to me the delivery system isn't as important as the music.

Same with movies -- the delivery system isn't as important as the movie.

(With the big exception of the theaters -- which are probably a better analogy to books -- people tell me all the time they have quit going to movies because of the cost. Whereas, true movie lovers love the immersion of the big screen. I suspect theatrical movies, like books, both have romance built into their very existence and will survive the digital revolution.)

I truly believe that the delivery system of paper-bound books is a large part of the appeal.

I know at one point of my own life, I shed all the books in my office to try to create a spare, zen-like room. Until I visited my sister's house, which was packed with books. I soaked up the atmosphere of literature and realized I missed it. I went back home and let books accumulate again.

E-books have no soul, no presence, no funk. No nostalgia. No feel and smell and taste and touch and....you know, it's all "bits." I can love a books, but it's hard to love "bits." When I finish an e-book, that's it. Vanished into thin air except a memory.

Whereas I finish a book, and I put it on the shelf, and it gives me a little frisson everytime I see it. And the sheer mass of memory on those shelves is going to be replaced by --what? An e-list? Gag.

Both Linda and I have had customers come in and tell us they bought an e-book and don't need their credit or whatever. You know what? I think those people will be back. I think they'll miss the romance of books. True lovers of books have a romance with reading. They'll see a friend curled up on the couch with a novel and they'll feel the pang of regret.

Others have told me that having so many books is a "burden." Really, a burden? O.K. shed the damn things. What's that got to do with anything? Your library can be as big or small as you want it.

Most of the arguments for e-books just don't really hold up that well. Access to thousands of books?

Ummm...how many do YOU read at a time.

If I gave you a device that produced thousands of pairs of pants, would that be something you want?

(I don't know, maybe some of you wear more than one pair at a time...)

As long as I have a book in the hand, and a book on the table, and maybe one more book on a bookshelf, I'm fixed. Hell, I may toss two or three books in a backpack for a week vacation, but I'll probably still only read one.

I can 'toss' it into my backpack and 'throw' my backback into the car and let the book rattle around and get dog-eared and 'drop' it on the ground and dust it off and write all over it and give it to a friend or throw it away or keep it forever.

You need more information? There's this thing called "the internet" that has more information than ALL of US could ACTUALLY READ in our ENTIRE LIFETIMES!!!

I think a big part of the appeal of an e-book is that it's a new gadget. So those predisposed to gadgets are all over those mothers.

I think bookstores are making a huge mistake -- aided and abetted by the American Booksellers Association -- of being enablers to the digital. My advice would be to shut the door firmly in it's face, and say, "Go sell yourself without MY help."

In fact, that's what I'm going to do.

I also think that even those people who buy e-books, will also buy book books.

Or, more likely, buy gadgets that have e-book components, like I-Pad. Hell, I might buy a I-Pad.
I might download free books that I never would have actually purchased in a million years, but which I might want to glance at or browse. Sort of like I read the N.Y. Times Book Review and read all the reviews but not actually read all the books.

If I lose a sale I never had, is that a problem?

I do think there is a danger, at least at first, of losing enough business in the book trade -- say, 10 to 30% -- that the whole book trade loses cohesion, which makes it weaker, which makes it lose more business, in a downward spiral.

But it doesn't have to happen. If the publishers and distributors and bookstores and writers are willing to fight for the book-book, and take the blows, and wait for the readers to come to their senses.

(And, most worrisome, they don't overreact, enable the e-reader to take their customers without a fight -- or buy too deeply into the music industry analogy.)

In fact, I'd deny them the right to call it a BOOK at all. It isn't a book -- it's a gadget that delivers information. It ain't a book. (Probably a lost cause that, idiosyncratic -- just like I think audio books aren't really books, but performances, plays...)

To me, E-books are like Pringles -- they have the same ingredients as potato chips, but they aren't potato chips.

Most readers don't give a damn about the "business" of books (or music, or films.) They don't really understand that much of what they love comes from the structure of business. Customers are like hippies -- they think that if they love music and books and films they will magically happen. Their favorite writers and artists will make money! And keep on delivering. Dude, let's all hold hands and wish really hard!

So are e-books going to put the bookstore business out of business?

In my gut, I don't feel it. In my gut, I think bookstores are here to stay because BOOKS are here to stay. C.D.'s ? DVD's? Who cares?

Books, I care.

E-books are like microwave dinners -- cheap and convenient and tasteless. Books are like fine meals, and bookstores are like fine restaurants. (And bookstore owners are like chefs, eh.)

I have predicated my entire existence in business with the idea that if I like something, or I think I have something other people will like, and if I buy it and carry it and display it, that there are enough other people out there who will like the same thing and buy it.

So...with that in mind, my attitude toward books hasn't changed one iota (I was going to say, bit, but I don't like that word anymore...), and I suspect there are enough people out there who feel the same way to keep me in business for at least the next few years.

I've also concluded that there are many many customers I can't have -- they buy elsewhere because it's cheaper or the other store is bigger or any number of reasons. So I deal with the customers I CAN have, and build from there. There have been many occasions when I've lost 10 or 20 or 30% of my customers because of changes in the industry, but I've found that if I keep doing the Core Thing, that I'll eventually get some people back.

And if I can't, I move onto the next thing.

But I think books are the kind of thing people are going to stick with, and/or do both and/or come back to. And those people who discard books onto the dustpin of history -- they probably weren't really ever my customers in the first place. (It's hard to see them as lovers of books -- lovers of info, maybe, but not books.)

I sell book-books. To people who love books. I think I'm O.K. with that.

We need an expanded U.G.B. for our diminished pop.

So the state is giving Bend less money because it apparently believes the U.S. Census numbers which say we have lost thousands in population. (What? That could NEVER happen!)

Maybe Bend should just sue the State of Oregon....after all, we've been totally unwilling to accept the state's appraisal of our needs for a huge Urban Growth Boundary.

Oh, wait.

If we've actually LOST population, why do we need an expanded U.G.B. at all?

Oh, yeah. Because we've got millions of people headed our way. Millions, I tell you. (Well, maybe tens of thousands....) Just like over the last twenty years. You know, just like during the biggest housing boom in U.S. history, with houses selling for so much in California that you could come up and buy an even bigger house in Bend for less!

A nice little circle jerk (if you'll pardon the expression) where we sell houses to people who build and sell houses who sell houses to people who build and sell houses....it's perpetual motion! Who needs real jobs?

I mean, that's ready to start happening again any day now!

Right?

Sat. snips

Yesterday was like the perfect Bend weather day. (sorry, bend sux.)

I wanted to head the opposite direction from work...

This morning was supposed to be cold and nasty, but the weatherman is wrong again, and it's beautiful. I'm going to try to get out in the woods with a notebook and a pencil.

***********

Had a big day at the store yesterday, so didn't feel the slightest twinge of regret as I locked the doors at 6:00 as usual, and turned around to see the huge crowds milling around the sidewalks.

In the last hour, I had about 4 couples come in from the Art Hop, and they looked at the books and left, and I just didn't feel like staying around for a few more hours to watch more of that.

Not sure why I think these events are great for the browsers, but not so great from my store, but there it is....

What do I know?

**********

There are a million metrics for economic performance, and you can always pick and choose.

But....I've noticed less bank closures, the stock market is still going strong, and the employment rate -- at least nationally -- does seem to be coming down.

So...I'm cautiously optimistic that we are beginning to see the start of a possible tiny little uptick.

I know in my store, I'm rolling over last year's downturn over the next few months. Looking at last summer's sales, it's hard to believe I won't beat those numbers...

**********

Meanwhile, in Bend, we don't have the money to fix potholes.

Which is pretty much what all us bubble bloggers were saying as the City of Bend was throwing millions at Juniper Ridge and a new bus system.

Oh,well. What did we know?

**********

It does seem to me that a whole lot of businesses position themselves -- or market themselves -- as "public"; almost as non-profit institutions.

Of course, the public loves it. What's not to love? It's all about them, and all the entertaining and comforts and cheapness and --

But is it business? Is it the buying and selling of product?

And does it work? Does it create enough good will to help your business?

Why doesn't just being steadily open regular hours, selling product, knowing and displaying your product, and doing all those storelike things -- why isn't that enough?

I guess what I'm saying is -- it would be nice to see a small percentage of those "hordes" coming in during regular hours and, you know, like buying stuff. Instead of milling around once a month on Friday, knocking back the wine.

I know. I know. They're supposed to come back later. But that's kind of the point. Why are they coming back "later?"

I don't have the answers. But I know that I feel like being the old steady storekeeper, open every day, doing every day things, is the way to go. Believe me, if you do it long enough, it's quite enough work.

Promotions are the tail, not the dog.

***********

Looks like our local legal community is going through it's version of The Good Wife. heh.

All that unseemly high schoolish rangling. Probably always there, but we're just seeing it played out in public...

Alternative interview.

The Bulletin is doing a story, which is supposed to run on Sunday, of the impact of e-books on bookstores.

I was probably surprisingly optimistic. For some reason, e-books don't worry me. I haven't felt their effect, nor do I think they'll affect me over the next couple of years...


But since you never know what a reporter might actually write, I went ahead and recorded the conversation, and I present it to you word for word, so you can compare it to the article....


(For this to work, you might want to read the answers in the blustery/panicked voice of Bill Paxton.)

Reporter: What do you think of e-books?

"I'm ready, man, check it out. I am the ultimate badass! State of the badass art. You do NOT wanna fuck with me. Check it out!

Reporter: Do you know anyone who has an e-book?

"They're coming outta the walls. They're coming out of the goddamn walls Let's book!"

Reporter: Do you think e-books will affect your store?

"Hey, maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked, pal!"

Reporter: So are you going to keep your store going?

"Let's just bug out and call it even, OK? What are we talking about this for?"

Reporter: E-book sales increased by thousands of percent, and books have dropped....

"Well, that's just great, that's just fuckin' great, man. Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now, man."

Reporter: And the percentage of e-books sales just keeps growing.

"That's it, man, game over, man, game over! What the fuck are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do?"

Reporter: Do you have a strategy for dealing with it?

"We're all gonna die, man."

Reporter: Don't you think you're over reacting?

"Oh dear Lord Jesus, this ain't happening, man. This can't be happening, man! This isn't happening!"

Reporter: Calm down.

"We're all gonna die man!"

Reporter: Get a hold of yourself. Do have any final observations?

"Come on! Come on! Come and get it, baby! Come on! I don't got all day! Come on! Come on you bastard! Come on, you too! Oh, you want some of this? Fuck you!"

Reporter: Hello? Hello? Are you still there?

A short history of Pegasus Books.

Much of what I say here probably makes no sense unless you know a little history of my store.
So for those of you who have read entries from years ago, move along. For others, this short history kind of puts it in perspective; why I do what I do, why my store seems to have weathered the downturn so well.

Hey, it's all relative.

The first ten years were a roller coaster ride -- booms in sports cards, comics, non-sports cards, magic, and so on. Opened four stores, closed three of them and so on. Sales were high, margins were minimal. Risk -- as it turned out --enormous.

When it all crashed, (sales dropping in half and going south), I decided to hang on. For the next ten years, about 40% of my GROSS PROFIT went toward debt. So, it would've been the equivalent, basically, of those of you with paychecks handing 50 to 60% of your earnings to the credit card barons. Yeah, brutal.

I had no credit. No cash reserves. Most of my distributors put me on Cash On Delivery terms.

I got really, really good at getting product -- enough to keep the store alive. And selling enough of it, at high enough margins to keep going.

Then, after ten years, the debt was paid off.

I could've pocketed the money. But the store was so threadbare that I decided to reinvest for a few years. So for the first half of the boom, say 2002 to 2005, I was just taking all the profits and plowing them back in the store.

Around 2005 or so, I was convinced there was an economic bubble in the U.S.A and especially in Bend, Oregon.

If I was operating at such and such a margin and needed X amount to survive, then I need to increase both the margins and the overall X so that I could survive a 50% drop in sales.

I prepared for a 50% drop in sales.

I also was determined not to raise my overhead, or to incur debt.

The years between 2006 and 2008 gave me opportunities to move into new product lines, creating more diversity and cushioning the future bust. (The Book Barn on Minnesota Ave. and Gambit Games on Wall St. went out of business, so I brought in new books and boardgames.)

When the bust happened, I didn't have debt. I had a large cushion in overall sales I could give up and retreat. And my margins were better. (Not to mention, better credit terms, credit backup, and cash reserves. Oh, the luxury.)

Turns out, there are compensating factors to a downturn. I get a small decrease in rent (not enough), I was able to cut employee costs without working every day, and as I mentioned in the previous post, I was able to start getting slightly better deals on product. Every 10% I save in costs, is worth 25% of my sales.

And I had those ten years of experience of dealing with C.O.D terms, no credit, no cash, no reserves -- no margin of error at all. 40% of gross profit going toward debt.

After that, the Great Recession has been more like a giant bump in the road.

So what else is new?

Buy it while you can.

I have made a fairly strong choice. I will take up every opportunity to save money on product.

To me, all stores need to do three things to survive (minimally; I could come up with half a dozen other things that need to be done, but these are the Essentials):

THE THREE ESSENTIALS.

1.) Pay overhead. Fixed expenses, like rent, insurance, electricity, phone, etc. and non-fixed like capital improvements and wages.

2.) Buy new product as it comes out.

3.) Replace product that has sold.

It seems to me that most store can do 2 out of 3 well; but it's extremely difficult with the competitive margins allowed these days to do all 3 well.

You can tell which two Essentials the store you're shopping at is doing. If they never have any new stuff, or they never bring back what they sold, or -- well, overhead can be more hard to see, at least at first, but eventually you might see the store run down, or a lack of enthusiasm on the part of the store owner who isn't making any money.


Anyway, that's a roundabout way of getting to my point, which is a sort of corollary to the above theory:

1.) A store needs new product.

2.) A store needs to replace sold product.

But a store needs to do those two Essentials with sufficient profit margin to pay the overhead.

The thing that I've found works best, is to constantly jump on every "Sale" offered by my distributors. To be shamelessly opportunistic.

I struggled for a long time with the idea that I was buying less than evergreen product with a large percentage of my budget. Shouldn't I just buy the best-selling product?

But the extra margin in the "Sale" product is what can allow me to do everything else I need to do.

If -- and it's a big if -- I can sell enough of the "Sale" product to gain the advantage. Ironically, it seems that if I buy on a constant basis, it works better than just taking advantage of the occasional blow-out.

A constant stream of "Sale" product, whether I buy at 10% off, or 20% or more, helps with the first 'Essential' (new product) and often for a portion of the second 'Essential' (replacing sold product) and gives me enough extra profit to pay for the first and probably most important Essential -- overhead.

It's more or less a constant tinkering with the formula -- how much to spend on new and perhaps unproven product, and how much to spend on older "Sale" product that may or may not be in demand.

What I'm saying, I guess, that I'm getting more and more comfortable ordering a larger percentage of "Sale" product the more time goes on. It isn't really even the lack of money that stops me from buying more, but the lack of space. (Which ordinarily would be a sure sign that I need to expand -- enough money to buy product, but not enough space to display -- but that's another can of worms.)

I'm assuming that I'm being offered so many bargains because the economy is weak -- so that's a compensating factor to the downturn. Those of us with established store and the ability to buy, have a great opportunity to bring in more product than we normally would.

It's also possible that there is just so much material in my retail corner of the world that "Sales" are inevitable. Or perhaps, I've diversified so much that there will always be a "Sale" in one or the other of my categories.

Whatever it is, I'm betting that I'm established and experienced enough to take full advantage.

A bookstore in a nutshell.

In one ten minute period, I had the following happen in my store:

A woman asks for WHERE THE SIDEWALK ENDS and THE LIGHT IN THE ATTIC, by Shel Silverstein. We go to the Shel Silverstein section and I have:- FALLING UP; THE MISSING PIECE; THE GIVING TREE; A GIRAFFE AND A HALF; and DIFFERENT DANCES.

But not the books she was looking for...

Another woman asks for WHAT IS THE WHAT?, by Dave Eggers. We go to the E's and I have: -- A HEARTBREAKING WORK OF STAGGERING GENIUS; YOU SHALL KNOW OUR VELOCITY; HOW WE ARE HUNGRY; and ZEITOOUN.

But not the book she was looking for.

This pretty much goes on all the time, no matter how many books I carry.

It really points out how many books there are in the world; not just books, but "good" books.

On one hand, it's an opportunity to stock my store with nothing but "good" books. That's a luxury, actually. I don't think most bookstores realize how lucky they have it -- that they have centuries of evidence about which books stand the test of time and which books actually sell.

It isn't always this way. For many product lines I carry, I have a few items that sell and then a bunch of filler that doesn't sell so well. I have to carry the filler to, well, fill in -- to get that extra 20% that makes the whole thing work. (And I don't always know when I order which new product will be evergreen and which are filler. The ones that don't sell, turn out to be filler.)

Sure, the book trade has a whole lot of mid-list product, but you can pick and choose which to carry, based on your own tastes and predilections. And sure the book trade has tons of "new" books that haven't proven themselves -- but I avoid most of those, and wait for evidence of strength.

Anyway, it points to a little bit of a dilemma for me: I have limited space, so I have to be very very picky. It's great, in a way, because I can fill my store with only proven sellers and other books I want to carry. But even amongst the proven sellers, I have to pick and choose.

So here's the choice, as I see it.

Once I identify an author who sells, do I carry a few of his 'best' books and leave enough money to bring in another author who sells, and carry a few of his 'best' books?

Or do I choose one of the two authors and carry a full bibliography of that author's works; not only his or her best known works, but the early unknowns, the off the beaten track works.

(If I had a bigger store, I'd do both...)

So far, I have found the latter technique to be better for Pegasus Books.

Not sure why, but my guess is that the better known books are everywhere -- in every Barnes and Noble and Borders and most indie bookstores. It's the lesser books that I'm more likely to sell, sometimes, because I may be the only guy carrying it.

Of course, by this logic, maybe I should carry just the lesser known books by major authors....except I don't have the guts. But what I'm really saying is, that carrying the lessor known books probably helps me sell more books -- that is, I might sell the better known books too, but this the extra margin I need.

In a way, my new books survive on that contradictory boundary. I survive on that margin between what is so well known that everyone sells it (often much cheaper than I) and those books that are so obscure they never sell.

My job is to discover and pick what books are in that gray area between those two extremes.

Ambushed in Margaritaville

I have all but stopped drinking. But I'm not anti-drinking; in fact, I usually quite enjoy it.

But I can't seem to function too well in my day to day life if I drink very often, so I made a decision to only drink at social functions where alchohol is served and since I go to so few social functions -- alchohol or non-alchohol -- I'm pretty safe.

One exception are my family reunions, where we tend to sit around a big table and drink wine and beer and have a great time.

So two of those dinners a my sister Susie's condo, and home to bed.

Yesterday, my brother and Linda and I went to Sisters to check out Lonesome Water books for any vintage Central Oregon history books, checked out Paulina Springs bookstore where I bought the latest Thomas Perry mystery, and then -- back in Bend -- met my sister and her two kids at Hola as they came out of the theater from seeing Rango.

I've got a very soft goal of checking out all the 'fine-dining' restaurants in Bend; I mean, at the rate I'm going, it will take forever. So Hola was a new experience. They had MARGARITA'S in huge letters in the window, so I figure when in Rome (or Peru in this case) do as the locals do.

I didn't know what kind to order, so the waiter helpfully suggested "super" margarita (sly fellow). Well, I quickly polished that off -- salt rimmed, and a lime slice (the lime slice really took the edge off.

I signaled to the waiter for a second one, and he looked surprised, but went off the start shaking up the ingredients.

"There's more in this container, Dunc," my brother Mike says.

"Oh!" I pour out another drink, and I see there is contents for at least a couple more. "Errr...."

Mike hustles off to cancel the second drink.

Turns out there were four margarita's in that container, and I hate to see anything go to waste.

So, three nights in a row of alchohol and I'm pretty wiped out. I've slept well enough, thank goodness.

So...from now on, when a drink says "Super" I probably should be paying attention.

Writing is writing.

I don't just write on this blog. Or, rather, you don't see everything I write on this blog.

I write fiction, sometimes just little snippets, the beginnings of stories -- always in hopes they'll turn into something I want to continue. I also write personal diary type entries, and of course, I write about business.

"No man but a blockhead ever wrote, except for money." Samuel Johnson.

I've more or less bought into this notion for the last 25 years. People often tell me to write for my own amusement, but that kind of pain-free writing is maybe half as good as the kind of writing I used to try to do -- toiling over every word and sentence. For the fiction to be worth reading, at least at my skill level, it required more than a creative lark.

It was too freaking hard to do it just "for fun."


"An unexamined life is not worth living," Socrates.

I've also more or less also bought into this notion.


But what if you examine your life through words?

Clear thinking creates clear writing. And clear writing creates clear thinking.

I've been writing a business journal about Pegasus Books, almost from the beginning -- reams and reams of paper, and now 4.5 years of blogs. I suppose I never thought of it as writing, but I think I was wrong about that.

Often, and this happens on this blog as well, I also examine personal issues. There are many, many entries I've written that were either too personal or too revealing to actually post to the world...

Anyway, I now think this kind of journaling , either about work or home, is writing. I'm putting one thought after the other, circling back to a previous thought, finding unnoticed connections, seeing glaring logical errors. The clearer I try to express myself, the clearer my thoughts become.

The other day, I woke from yet another of my "ostracism" dreams, and I sat down to write about it.

When I finished, I felt refreshed, clearheaded. I may not have solved the problem the dreams represent, but I had faced them squarely, written about them straightforwardly, and gathered all the threads and intuitions I've been mulling over for the last few years and put them all down in words.

I suppose in a way, I'm talking to myself. Never thought there was much wrong with that. Writing my thoughts down reveals notions and insights I didn't know I had. I mean, they come out of my head, but I don't remember ever really thinking about them until -- there they are, on paper or screen.

Now that I'm back to fiction writing, I'm realizing that I've been practice writing all these years, after all. The ease and directness that I've tried to maintain in this blog is transferring to my fiction, too. I don't know if it will make it better, but it's making it easier.

Maybe it'll make it easier enough to see through to the end.

New ways of reviewing movies.

SUCKER PUNCH.

Which movie would I like to see first: The King's Speech or Sucker Punch?

The King's Speech.

Which movie would I like to see again: The King's Speech or Sucker Punch?

Sucker Punch.

************

If you go to movies once a week, by all means see Sucker Punch.
If you go to movies once a month, go see Sucker Punch if you like video games or comics.
If you go to movies once a year, avoid Sucker Punch at all costs.

**********

If you understand the terms Steam Punk or Anime, go see Sucker Punch.

**********

If you really, really like both Quentin Tarantino and gothic horror -- go see Sucker Punch.

***********

If you thought the Matrix was really "deep, man." Go see Sucker Punch.

************

If you have read an Oprah recommended book in the last year, avoid Sucker Punch.

**********

If you go in planning to love it without really trying to love it -- avoid Sucker Punch.
If you go in planning to enjoy the visuals, and to try to like the rest -- go see Sucker Punch.

**********

I loved Sucker Punch. The Rest of the World hates Sucker Punch. Whose side are you on?

Great Plan: sell 1000% more , earn 30% less.

Just lately, I've begun to automatically Zoom-in on a lot of online content. I swear the printing has gotten smaller, dammit.....

Another reason e-books are going to take over, probably.

(I'm assuming you can adjust the size of the print....)

**********

Was reading an article that was arguing that file-sharing was not the cause of the decline in the music industry:

"Downward pressure on leisure expenditure is likely to continue to increase due to rising costs of living and unemployment and drastic rises in the costs of (public) services," says the report.

Having less money for entertainment has played a huge role in the decline of items like CDs." (LAW AND DISORDER.)


I call bullshit. From the perspective of a storekeeper, the PRICE of things isn't usually the real issue. PRICE rejection comes at the end of the game, not the beginning.

For instance, during both the Pog boom and the Beanie Baby boom, I saw young and old spending money like water -- they wanted it, they wanted it now, and they'd pay anything to get it.

Then the boom turns to bust, and you can't give the damn things away....

In other words, demand was all important.

Another example, people are constantly telling me that sports cards are too "expensive." Well, right now, I have .50 and 1.00 packs. Those brand new 1.00 packs are probably LESS expensive than old .50 packs from 30 years ago when inflation is taken into account.

"Yeah, but those are junk cards." They are junk cards because they are cheap. See the reasoning? What they are really saying is, they want expensive cards cheap -- but if they are cheap, they are junk. You can't win.

I suspect that file-sharing was very much responsible for much of the decline in music sales -- just like it will for movies and books. (Which is a reason the the publishers and studio's ought to keep fighting it -- it may not have worked for the music industry, but neither did giving in...But no one is going to take that advice -- )

Here's a pretty astounding statistic, that I just read on Tilting at Windmills:

In the...."music industry...digital sales are up 1000%+ over the last six years, yet global revenues are down an astonishing 31%..."

So, will digital ever generate the same revenue as the physical product, and if not, how does the infrastructure beneath the industries survive? And if they don't survive, what takes there place, if anything?


In the end, there isn't much we can do about it.

**********

I've taken a more or less two year window or timeline in gauging the effect of e-books (and e-comics).

Two years out, what do I see?

I feel pretty confident about this time span. I'm always prepared to vary my inventory to compensate for rising and falling sales. I have a hard time imagining that either books or comics are going to be gutted -- slowly diminished, maybe. But that was always possible for a variety of reasons.

I'll just be keeping my eye on that two year horizon...

Saturday surf.

I swear to god, time is speeding up.

Which makes reorders less of problem. See...I miss my deadline, and the next week comes by in a blink of an eye.

Blink again, and another week goes by.

Only time it hurts is when someone asks for something and I'm out of stock.

**********

I'll be seeing Sucker Punch, despite the 20% rating from Rotten Tomatoes. Come on, Steam Punk, blondes in skimpy sailor moon outfits, zombie German trench soldiers, Zeppelins, DRAGONS!!

Oh, did I mention blondes in skimpy sailor moon outfits?

Oh, and DRAGONS!

**********

Sometimes, like this morning, I toss off a sacrificial lamb of a post. It's the weekend; readership is down, it's what's on my mind, it shows people what's on my mind, and ... well, what the hell.

**********

Linda had me buy the book KAPTOIL Teddy Wayne, for her book reading group.

She handed it back to me today. "I can't read, when I'm writing..."

"You're going to get tossed out of reader's group," I warned.

"Branded, scorned at the one who didn't read
What do you do when you're branded,
and you know you're a writer...."

What I've noticed about reader groups is that they pick "serious" books. Which would be inconvenient for me, since I'd probably want to recommend the latest fantasy or mystery.

"Branded, scorned at the one who read S.F.
What do you do when you're branded,
and you know you're a nerd..."

The other thing I've noticed about reader's groups, is that occasionally a member picks a book that is nearly impossible to find. Either it's out of print, or so new that it's only in hardcover and has a mile long reading list at the library.

"Branded, scored as the one who picked an impossible book to find
What do you do when you're branded,
and you know you're an snob..."

Giant reptilian mutant critter.

"In short, Judge Perkins, the toxic chemical level in Deschutes River from chemical runoff from the Lucky Leprechaun mine is far above acceptable legal standards."

"Yes, yes," the Judge said. "But you haven't presented any evidence of harm..."

Sarah gaped a little, then recovered. "Sir. I didn't think I needed to. These are clearly dangerous levels of toxic...''

"Motion denied."

At that moment, on the muddy banks of Deschutes River, a huge mottled egg began to undulate and stretch. Out popped a giant reptilian head, tongue sniffing the air. It slithered out of the bank and into the river.


"Poor little critter. They'll destroy it within a few hours. Probably use a cruise missile or something...."

"Poor little critter!" Sarah exclaimed. "It's eaten at least ten people!"

"There are lots of people," I answered. "There is only one mutant, giant, reptilian critter."

***********



I woke up with the above story in my head. Probably won't go anywhere, but I'm going to start writing down these little bursts.