Thingies

The young folk at the store (customers and employees) seem to really like the new music I just bought...

What am I doing wrong?

I'm trying to imagine my grandparents picking music I would've liked...

***********

Cam Newton (Heisman Trophy Winner) calls himself an "entertainer and icon."

Oh, oh.

Not another one of-- those-- guys...

**********

Local real estate blog proclaims local housing is "affordable!"

Well, that's one way of putting it...

**********

The King's Speech is a fine movie -- but it just isn't anything special. It's like Chariots of Fire or something -- just not something that will be among the greats.

A safe choice, I guess.

If they had any balls, they give the Academy Award to Toy's Story 3, just because it's time an animated movie won. (Up!)

**********

Gadhafi blames the rebellion in Libya on Bin Laden.

That's good, right?

That he doesn't blame the U.S.A.

Right?

**********

Linda: "Did you know I'm not perfect?"

"What! I demand a divorce, right now! I was misled!"

"Yeah, this ear is lower than my other ear...."

"Oh....I see. Your EARS aren't perfect..................

***********

Ridgeview High School.

Boring!

That's the name you get when it goes through a committee. Bland, generic, and...

What was that name again?

The population of Bend is....?

76,639 U.S. Census, 2010

80,995 City Limits Sign

83,125 City of Bend estimate.


One of the more argumentative issues among the bubble bloggers was whether Bend would actually lose population in the bust.

I thought it would.

So did it, or didn't it?

Based on what I've seen in my store, I think we not only lost population; but in a de facto way, we lost way more population than even the Census uncovered (4,300 people.)

I've had many regular customers leave town. But even more so, I have a large number of regular customers who haven't officially left town -- often their families are still here, and their residence -- but who are nevertheless working elsewhere.

Back in the 80's we were bleeding residents -- because there were actual jobs elsewhere. I think we've slowed down the bleeding this time because of the lack of jobs elsewhere, as well as the difficulty in selling homes.

And it should be pointed out that if you've had steady, even spectacular growth for decades, that's what you plan for. So even breaking even is probably a set back. Actually declining is probably a double whammy.

To me, that was the whole point in discussing the boom and bust: Planning for it. I think our city officials failed in that; and seem to still be in some denial.

A naif with great instincts.

I need to understand the costs of buying and selling stock. As well as the tax implications.

I turned to my wife on Sunday and said, "I wish I had sold everything last week."

I know when I bought Barnes and Noble stock, that there was a cost involved. When it reached a peak of 15% higher, I thought I ought to sell, but I wasn't sure how much it would cost.

As of today, the stock is 10% lower than when I bought it, for a swing of 25%.

It was a small amount I invested, just to experiment. But obviously, I need to do more research, because what stopped me from selling was fear of costs, and I'm not sure about that.

I'm a naif.

A naif with great instincts, I think, which come from watching the collectibles market rise and fall for a few decades. It appears to me that there are many similar characteristics in customer behavior.

Overreached much?

Here's a description of the Mercato development:

"....a six-building project with 33,300 square feet of retail, 19,500 square feet of restaurants, 20,700 square feet of offices, 54 condominiums and underground parking."

They're selling it on the short market for "about half"..."paid in 2005 at the height of the real estate boom." Bulletin, 2/22/11.

How could this ever have seemed like a good idea? I especially like the "underground parking" part, because it so shows how unaware newcomers are of the lava rock underpinnings of Bend. Other than the Franklin Crossing building (another development that it's hard to believe wasn't an overreach) I'd be hard pressed to think of "underground parking" being much of an option around here.


And it makes me wonder, if Juniper Ridge was a privately owned development, would it still be around? Or would it also be on the short sale market.

Drawing lines in the sand.

I'm purposely drawing some lines in the sand.

A few years back, I decided that I wouldn't play video games. Not because I didn't think I would like them but because I thought I might like them too much. (My wife was convinced I would enjoy a Wi i; but I've played it once or twice, and decided it was a complete waste of time.)

Denying myself the pleasures? Why would I do that?

I think I feel that modern life is diluting experiences. Breaking them down into smaller and smaller, shallower and shallower experiences.

Like my reaction to speed reading. Why would I do that? I enjoy reading too much.

I decided in business to draw the line at electronics -- I did bring in anime, which proved to be a mistake because it held within it's customer base the earliest of early adopters. It made it easy to decide never to carry electronic gaming in my store -- I make the joke, "One more product line and my brain explodes!"

So I'm sticking with books. No kind of e-reader.

I'm not saying everyone needs to be like me. I don't doubt that the younger generation are incorporating the changes faster than I am.

But I still like curling up every night with my book and dissolving into a story.

Misunderstanding supply and demand.

I mean, most people get the idea that when supply is low and demand is high, prices go up; and they get that when demand is low and supply is high, prices go down.

But it isn't that clear cut.

It took me years to realize that a couple of pieces are missing from formulation.

What happens when:

1.) Supply is high and Demand is high?

2.) Supply is low and Demand is low?

I'd have to say, those two equations are the more likely, for the vast majority of product.

So it's a bit more complicated than people think.

First of all, the situation of supply being low and demand high never holds. Supply ALWAYS catches up to demand; unless, I suppose, you're dealing with precious metals or something. But if it can be produced, it will be produced -- and then over-produced.

So the situation I find myself in most often is enough supply; but also low demand.

Here is where I think most people lower prices, which I think is the wrong thing to do. You are only going to have so much interest in any product, but counter-intuitively, when there is little interest, you can usually get the customer to pay full price. Because even though there is a large supply, because of low sales most merchants won't be carrying the product any longer, which creates a de facto lower supply.

On the other hand, NO amount of low prices will increase demand if there is no demand.

So you might as well be rewarded for investing in, gambling on, a product that is in lower demand.

There is also the matter of buying lower quantities, thus usually paying higher prices. So what you want is full price, so you can replace the product; or, conversely, if it doesn't sell, you still have the product in stock.

This is a hard thing to explain. Higher prices creating lower demand on purpose. But it's a bit like having your cake and eating it too. The equation of selling a product 4 or 5 times to get the profit from selling once, but also having the product in stock, makes sense when there is sales volume. But when sales volume drops, you may get stuck with that last purchase without a profit or you may just stop carrying the product.

This is probably what most stores do -- liquidate the product, and get their money back.

But once you decide on having a long-tail sort of store -- or circumstances dictate that you must have a long-tail sort of store -- getting rid of product is counter productive. You want just a little left at the end, so that one person who walks in once a year can find it.

Because it's not all just about the individual sale -- it's about what you carry, and what people perceive you to be carrying, and how you can afford to carry it.

I figured out early on that it's better to have a product at a higher price, then to have lower price but not have the product.

So as demand starts to drop on a product, I'm much more likely to firm up the price -- and go on to the next thing.

Our culture is mostly too much supply, and not enough demand. Not sure how that works out in the long run, except that we'll have full landfills.

A universe beyond.

From my desk, I hear the boomhum of a didgeridoo.
Of my wife's construction.
Otherworldly, homely, pvc pipe and wax,
swirling purple and pink paint.

I work on my accounts, the floor vibrating.

I look up from my book to the sound of a chime,
a Buddhist chant, the smell of candles,
my wife's secret room, shared with
the water heater.

I read my mystery, and smile.

My wife's dream, told while I pour my
morning coffee, (hazelnut creme),
a wild adventure, saving kids and cats,
told with unswerving enthusiasm.

I try to shake the fog from my brain.

Over the sound of the T.V.
C-span politics, I hear the flute,
A familiar tune she wrote early,
practicing her scales.

The cat and I listen intently from the couch.

My wife knits a thick blanket,
soft and pink and blue pastels,
counting stitches, and lost in
her spinning work.

I browse the net in peace.

My wife is lost in her story,
staring at the laptop,
making up exotic names
and alternate worlds.

I putter around the kitchen making dinner.

I live two lives in this one
mine is what it is, hers a universe beyond.

Status report.

By the end of last week, I was feeling pretty good about business. I'd done the minimum average I was hoping for going into the year for about 7 weeks in a row. I'd fallen behind a couple of times, only to have a big day catch us back up.

By the middle of this week, I was feeling pretty discouraged. Some horribly slow days, so that by Thursday, I was thinking my minimum low was busted.

I went home muttering to myself and to Linda.

Woke up the next morning, and thought to myself: "Hey, it's late February! Don't be drawing no conclusions based on late February!" (Besides, I figured out later that Thursday sucked because the afternoon was taken up by families were were downtown for the free Winterfest street events -- either that, or Marty Stuart fans. Now, I like Marty Stuart, and I like country western, but it's the one kind of music that I actually have customers object too -- not even opera or jazz seems to faze them, but CW does...)

Yesterday was a huge day. Just had people marching in and spending money. A few of them mentioned "tax returns", so I'm back on my minimum schedule again. I think the fact that it's a holiday on Monday helps -- it seems like over the last few years, more and more people are turning these into 3 and 4 day weekends.

Overall, I think the economy in Bend is pretty bad. I'm impressed by the resiliency of downtown businesses -- I know that people hang on pretty tight to their dreams. I hope that continues...

Biodiversity is a bitch.

I know the politically correct thing to say about Border's bankruptcy and closing of 200 stores is: "gosh, anything that diminishes books diminishes all of us."

Bull. They're a corporation who had no problem putting as many independents as they could out of business. I may have sympathy for the employees, but I have none for Borders.

Or the publishers, who thought it was a good idea to put most of their business into three baskets -- Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Borders. Instead of the 8,000 or more independent bookstores that existed 20 years ago.

Biodiversity is a bitch.

And while the publishers are suffering, they might want to think about how assiduously Amazon is trying to screw them with Kindle, and B & N is trying to screw them with the Nook.

Didn't see it coming?

Of course not. The dinosaurs never see the asteroids coming. But they should have realized SOMETHING was coming, and instead of having 8,000 individual buyers to sell to, that maybe it wasn't particularly safe to have 3 buyers.

Snip, snaps.

I don't miss having Winterfest downtown. Sorry, I just don't.

Kind of interesting that all the downtown banners are advertising an Old Mill event. I'm for cooperation as much as the next guy, but I usually don't purposely send people away from my own shopping area.

I assume this is a city thing -- and that the Old Mill banners return the favor?

**********

Silly -- every time I see Bed, Bath, and Beyond, I hear an old timey announcer. "Bed, Bath....and BEYOOOONNND!!!"

************

This is not to make light of what happened to her, which was truly horrible.

But every time I hear the name Lara Logan, I think she should have a boyfriend named Clark.

Lana Lang

Lois Lane

Lara Logan.

Come on now, am I wrong?

**********

"...Cop Sold Guns To Other on Force."

Well, I guess we know where to start the spending cuts....

**********

Before everyone gets too upset over the closing of the Indoor Market, just remember there are reasons for zoning.

For instance, parking.

But don't I want business in Bend to succeed?

Sure.

But you know what would be even cheaper for a business ?-- operating permanently out of their house or lawn.

You wouldn't mind all those cars parked in front of your house or in your driveway, would you? For the sake of business?

I pay the rent I pay because of the surrounding infrastructure. I'm not sure I think that people should be able to avoid those costs -- for one thing, it's an unfair competitive advantage.

You have to pay your way, folks.

Couldn't help myself.

I just had to answer one of the guys who was complaining about comics stores on Savage Critics -- even though I know it won't do any good.

The guys comment, in part:

"I’m just a guy who travels a lot and I’ve found these clubhouse stores *everywhere*. In my experience, they far outnumber the amount of good stores to the point I honestly feel the good stores, like yours, are the statistical outliers."

My answer:

I feel like I have the perfect “test case” store; in a small metro area, been here for 31 years. (Pegasus Books of Bend, Oregon.)

Yesterday, I had a guy come in and ask for Adrian Tomine. We found in the store:

32 Stories.
Shortcomings
Scrapbook
Summer Blonde
Optic Nerve: 30 Postcards
Scenes from an Impending Marriage
and a couple issues of Optic Nerve.

I bring this up to give an indication of how much independent material I carry.

He was from Seattle, and bought 32 Stories…

So…I haven’t had a single local ask for Adrian Tomine, or sold one of his graphic novels — in years, ever?

I can only make this work because I get tourist business; and even then, it’s a hard sell.

I’m proud of my store and what I carry, and I’ve managed to bring this material in and make it work, BUT….I would never second guess smaller stores who say they can’t sell it.

It’s a hard sell, but I think worth trying for.

The Ideal Store.

The Ideal Store -- doesn't exist.

Retailer, Brian Hibbs, has a 'review' of four comic shops that were part of a bus tour at the Comic Pro conclave. His main point was how different each of the four store were from each other.

Over on The Beat, there are two long threads about the imminent(!) demise of comic shops to digital, where you can just feel the 'love' toward us. (Many comic readers seem convinced that most comic shops suck; but at least, that's a slight improvement from years ago when they were convinced that ALL comic shops suck.)

As I've commented before, I'm amazed by the variety of bookstores that Linda and I run into on our bookstore roadtrips.

I've decided the ideal store -- which would meet everyone's approval -- simply isn't possible.

Even if you could pick the perfect spot, buy exactly the fixtures you want, and fill it with exactly the inventory you desire, it would still be -- too much or too little -- of something or another.

But very few of us can start with a blank slate.

So why are stores so different? I've come up with several reasons.

1.) Location. Where you're located is going to dictate what product will sell, and how you display it, and even your pricing. Linda's store is located in a semi-industrial area between the old main drag and the railroad tracks. A large space, visible to drive by traffic. Filled with books and nothing but books. She depends on volume.

My store, on the other hand, is in an old downtown district, not very visible from the road but with lots of walk-by traffic. My space is expensive and limited, and I've been slowly but surely developing 'mainstream' product to attract the customer off the street. Diversified, fully retail priced.

A thousand reasons why the physical location may make one product possible, and another impossible.

2.) The physical layout of your store. Again, the size and shape of your space is going to dictate what you can carry, and how much you can carry. There are comic shops, for instance, that are more like my wife's store; larger space, cheaper rent, where they can displays boxes and boxes of back issues. Whereas my store space is limited and expensive, and I've been forced by those circumstances to store my back-issues in the basement and load up the shelves with graphic novel collections.

There will be complaints, too, that my store is too crowded. Yet, what do I do when I know from experience that the more product my store has, the better the sales? I'm perfectly capable of creating a less crowded store that might be more visually appealing to some customers, but my sales would be less and I can't afford that. I try my best to keep everything tidy -- and not push the boundaries into claustrophobia, but I simply can't create the wide corridors that my wife's store has.

There are many more examples of how space dictates the type of store you have.

3.) Your history. I could find a bigger, maybe even a more ideal location, but I've got 27 years of credit built up where I'm at. I don't believe that the grass is always greener -- like I said, whatever you gain by a move, you might lose somewhere else. I'm nearing the end of my career and don't need the stress or gamble of a move. If it ain't broke...

You also have the inventory you have -- what's left, what fads came and went leaving behind their refuse, what you've managed to create a client base for, and so on. It may not be the ideal mix, but it's the mix you got.

An ideal store would probably have to be recreated every time circumstances change, and that isn't economically feasible, obviously.

4.) The owners tastes and abilities. My store is a mix of pop culture product. I love books, new and old; but I also like unique toys, and I enjoy playing boardgames, and I love art books and comic books, I even kind of have a nostalgic glow toward sports cards (which has given me no end of grief).

I know there will be comic customers that will reject my store because I'm not pure. I don't have enough back issues, for instance. I've diluted my store with non-comic stuff -- even toys can be a turn off to some purists.

Since every store owner is different, every store will be different.

5.) Finally, (I think I could probably come up with reasons all day long as to why stores are different but I'll end with this...) the ideal store can't exist, because customers expectations are different, as different as the number of customers.

I know visiting bookstores that I'm attracted to the crowded with inventory, books piled high in the corridors, little nooks and crannies, type used bookstore. My wife likes the exact opposite kind of store -- wide and spacious, but with less inventory.

I personally don't care for mixing used and new books together (the Powell's example), but other people love it.

There are probably thousands of examples of differences in customer tastes -- and you simply can't please everyone.

A ideal store would immediately start straying from the ideal, the minute you opened. You'd buy exactly the right quantity of items, for instance, but sell out of some and be unable to replace them. You'd have the customer drop the last remaining copy of something else. You'd develop a greeting patter that would instantly turn off some people, while being exactly what you need to get most people to stay.

And so on.

I wonder sometimes if comic customers are just less understanding than other types of customers. O.K. I know that in the past, there have been lots of sucky comic shops -- but I know from experience that much of that had to do with the limited finances this hobby affords.
You can't carry more than you can sell, you know.

My feeling is that comic shops are improving, Darwinian-wise. But they'll never be perfect.

Enough already!

Nobody mulls things over more than me. Just ask my wonderful forbearing wife.

I chew and chew on something, spit it out, chew it some more, until I've gummed every morsel.

But even I am getting sick of the sheer volume of speculation about digital books and comics.

Every site I go to. Extrapolating from very limited evidence.

It's a bit like trying to figure out global warming from watching the local weather.

Frankly, I wasn't really worried about books until this started happening. I felt books and comics were going to be just fine, left alone.

But they aren't being left alone. They're being pushed off a cliff.

I'm already figuring that it's going to be much harder to ever sell an existing bookstore or comic store -- no matter how well it's doing, because of the perception that e-books are taking over.

So far -- 1% of comic sales are digital.

Arggghhh.

Oh, well. I'll just keep adjusting.

Sell on the news?

Buy on the rumor?

(ADDED later: I should probably mention, Borders declared Chapter 11 this morning. Hard to see how they can come back...)

It's been five weeks since I bought Barnes and Noble stock, and at one point this morning, it was 15% higher.

I wanted to see if I could pick a stock, when it seemed obvious that it was underpriced. Ironically, it was B & N, who isn't exactly a friend of independents -- but who made a whole lot of money at Christmas, but who's stock hadn't budged. As far as I could tell, their overall financials were solid.

I thought that when Borders declared bankruptcy, that people would realize that B & N was likely to pick up market share. It even seemed like a bit of a hedge bet, because either the Nook was successful, or the paper books were successful, or both -- and it didn't seem likely that both would fail in the short run.

So -- the worst thing that can happen to a gambler is to have a big win. It just encourages him.

One: I didn't bet so much that it makes much difference.

Two: I'm still really skeptical that it is possible to 'pick' stocks on a consistent basis.

I have been looking so closely at the book trade for so long, that I saw this as an opportunity.

Still, I think I might trust the next time I have this impulse.

For now, I'm hanging onto the stock. It'll probably drop (second thoughts) and then start straying upward for awhile. But long term, I don' think B & N is in a super strong position, so I'm going to want to sell at some point.

That was fun.

A little warning would've been nice.

Weatherman sucks.

That's a lot of snow.

I've never not opened my store because of weather, but I'm tempted. I have a couple of hours to hope the snowplow makes it to my street.

I hate to shovel snow, but I may just have to this time. Slow and easy.

NOTE: P.S. I am going to open today, because my UPS shipment is schedule to show up. So, even if the lights are off, I'm there!

**********

Winterfest may have more winter than fest this year. Then again, actually havng winter might make it more festive. Still time to get the snow out of the way, I guess.

**********

This is the third time I've tried to write this blog this morning. Saving after every sentence, now.

**********

I taped the Grammies the other night. Thank goodness, because I don't know if I've ever seen so many and so long of commercials.

Like everyone else, I swore I would never lose touch with current music. But I don't listen to the radio, so much of current music passes me by. I wouldn't know a Beiber or a Lady Gaga song if I heard one.

Not proud of this, by the way. I hate it when people come in my store and proclaim loudly that they are competely oblivious to pop culture: "I'm ignorant -- and proud of it!"

Still -- not impressed by most of the music (the performances, on the other hand, were impressively energetic and showy). Fast forwarded most of them after about the first third.

Mostly poppy fluff. When has it ever been different? Not quite so many diva's and boy bands s the last time I watched, which is an improvement.

Rap songs apparently consist of Rhianna singing a tourch song, while a young male circles her threateningly (sexily?). Eminem is impressively intense.

We got into the second half of the program, and I started to recognize some songs. Mumford and Sons; which one of my guys had on the CD mixes they bring to the store. Listened to Dylan croak out Maggie's Farm.

Jagger still has it. Striesand doesn't.

I had not heard of Lady Antibellum, was not impressed with their bland music. Sorry.

Then my tragically unhipness was finally redeemed.

Arcade Fire, a band I love, won Album of the Year!

Only to find over the course of the next day that most people apparently haven't heard of them.

Hah! Who unhip now!

Bookstore roadtrip, Pt. 3.

To continue our epic journey through southern Oregon's bookstores.

We left More Fun after a long talk with Scott. Next up, Shakespeare Books, and down the street from that Antiquarian Books. Both stores specialize in the kind of 'collector' books that Linda and I pay no attention to.

We have shelves behind the counter at the Bookmark where we place the "older" books; books that look kind of vintage and such. But we price most of them very modestly, and figure that it's mostly about the appearance and atmosphere.

The second store, I sort of said, "I see you don't have any mysteries or science fiction."

The clerk nearly curled her lip, but managed with great effort to say, "No, we let the other guys do that," and pointed us to a bookstore out the back door and down the alley.

(I appreciate the effort it took not to curl her lip in disdain -- I recognized it..._)

We found the Book Exchange a block away.

It seems like every town has one of these stores -- they often even have "Exchange" in the title.
They were the going model 20 years ago. But times have changed, and most of these stores haven't changed with them, and so they are slowly disappearing.

This store actually traded straight. She offered 20% in trade, which is slightly less than what we offer, but no money needed to be spent.

"There's nothing like FREE to get more customers..." she said.

I just shook my head. This is the second time I've heard that sentiment. On the coast I had an owner say, "I couldn't charge for trade. I'd lose all my customers!" To which I'd said, "You mean, all the ones who don't spend money?"

Still, they seem happy enough to do it. I will say though, none of these "exchanges" look prosperous to me. They seem like they're just scraping by....

I did ask her if she ever thought to charge a bit with every transaction. "Oh, no," she said. "It's way too complicated. The other exchange store does that, but my employees would never figure it out."

"Then you need a simpler formula or smarter employees," I said. At which point Linda herded me away from counter. (Really, it didn't come across as mean, or anything -- and the lady laughed at the "smarter employees" crack.)

That was pretty much it for Ashland. The Soundpeace Bookstore was all new age; and there were a few books in Paddington Station, a gift store, mostly Shakespeare. What was interesting to me, was they put most of their books on little book standups that were emblazoned "Quirky." As you know, I've used the word "Quirky" to describe my own selection. I wish I had asked them where they got those standups.

On our way out of town, we looked in the windows of Quality Books in Talent, which was another of those 'exchanges.'

We drove on down the Brookings, and checked in at a Beachfront motel; they had 'ocean' front units, and 'beachfront' units. The 'beachfront' units were 30.00 more, which we took. The next morning, we realized that there was only a few feet of beach and a slight angle difference...

In Brookings, we visited Words and Pictures, which we do every trip. Nice older woman who has great taste in books. For a small new bookstore, I think she has great inventory. I asked her if she worked from lists, or had a formula for picking books. "No, whatever looks good."

The back three fourths of the store was a gallery. Personally, I'd probably expand the bookstore section, but...obviously, the art was just as important to her.

Still, it was interesting to see how many really good books she could pack into a small space.

We also visited The Book Dock, which is right on the wharf. A small building, with a fairly small selection of books. A very pleasant woman who talked about her store and her life; which was refreshing after meeting so many closed mouthed owners.

The next day, on our way back to Bend, we checked out Earl B. books. This store had moved 3 times since we started these trips (4 if you count his move from La Grande). This incarnation was smaller, and stacked with books.

Again, the inventory was very good. He talked about he was going to quit taking in "fluff."

This is the kind of smaller store, packed with good titles but manageable for one person, that I can see myself doing in my dotage.

And that was it. Way more bookstores than we normally find. I wasn't taking notes, which if I'd known we'd be visiting so many bookstores, I probably would've done.

It's fun to have a goal on these trips. It seems to add structure and purpose to what might just be simple meandering. And visiting bookstores is extremely pleasant. I learn something every trip, some insight or trick or technique I've never thought of. The bookstores are all different, though they have similar features.

I think we'll keep doing these bookstore roadtrips.

Keepin' em' honest.

A couple of local media stories that raised my eyebrows.

First a "things are looking up" story from John Stearns in today's Bulletin, "Bank Back to Playing Offense."

Says Patricia Moss, CEO of Cascade Bancorp: "Now we're actively calling on businesses and saying, 'If you have a need for the dollars and ability to repay, we're here to do small business lending..."

On the other hand: Later in the story: "But many small businesses are struggling with the economy and won't qualify, Moss said."

O.K. Fair enough. Basically, they'll loan to any business that doesn't actually need a loan, and won't loan to any business that actually does need a loan.

Business as usual.

But it's the gray area in-between that really counts. The businesses where it might be a small risk to loan to, but which have potential. But business that could really spring to life with an infusion of cash.

I have no way of knowing if Bank of the Cascades is loaning to this middle zone: but I suspect not.

**********

The last Cascade Business News was a whopper.

Usually I leave this 'newspaper' alone. It does what it does -- promote local businesses with feel good stories, boosting the prospects, being your basic Babbitt.

Again, fair enough. I suppose someone has to do it.

But this last issue went a little beyond that.

The local business community brought in an outside speaker to a conclave and asked him for his honest opinion about the local economy.

Here's what Economist Bill Watkins said, "Three years after the beginning of the recession, and a year after the end of the recession, Central Oregon's economic prospects are distressingly dismal, characterized as they are by continued job losses, still-declining real estate prices, negative net migration and economic growth so weak as to be barely measurable."

"....distressingly dismal...."

The CBN's response was to line up 50 businesses and a bunch of local to contradict that statement.

To me, this is intellectually dubious.

Starting with Pamela Hulse Andrew's editorial: "Taking Issue with Gloomy Economic Predictions." (It's fair to point 0ut, the Ms. Andrew's recently declared personal bankruptcy.)

Most of the other "coaches and consultant" quoted in the paper were to my mind equally dubious.

I personally don't think the economy in Bend "is getting better" and I think that saying so, and especially doing everything you can to try to drown out a objective third party who you asked their honest opinion from, is just boosterism gone wild.

The cold from hell.

I have the cold from hell. I can barely concentrate on the words I'm typing here.

And why does the worst of the cold hit me on my days off?

I'll try to write something later in the day, but if it doesn't happen, at least I've made my once a day entry.

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I'm still adjusting to the addition of the Sunday N.Y. Time's to my life.

I'm finding that I have time to read it if nothing else is happening much. I'm enjoying the longer form stories (not quite ready yet for the even longer New Yorker or Atlantic Monthly stories).
It's a refreshing change for the short snaps of the internet sites, and the truncated reprints.

Then again, I'm addicted to those little bursts of info from Huffington Post, and it's ilk.

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Short bits, for short attention spans...

Despite all the rumors, Borders Books avoided bankruptcy last week.

But the rumors are starting up all over again for next week.

From conversing with my customers, this seems to be common knowledge. But what's amazing is how many people think it's Barnes and Noble that's going bust. The public apparently conflates the two stores.

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Marvel has a .1 program to make it "easy" to jump into the continuity of their ongoing titles, so for instance, the numbering Wolverine 5.1., between #5 and #6.

Of course, what immediately becomes obvious if you try to explain what they are doing, is that it just adds yet another layer of complexity to the continuity.

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Linda got interviewed by KTVZ about e-books. She says, "I think I babbled. I was just fine talking until he suddenly said, "Pay no attention to the camera."

I know what she means. It makes me so nervous, I refuse to be interviewed by T.V. or radio.

We tried finding the interview that night, but Linda wasn't even sure who she had been interviewed by -- so either it was only on the 5:00 airing, or it was a different channel.

Five people mentioned it to her yesterday, so apparently it happened.

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"Cheney backs Mubarak." The old guy has perfect totalitarian instincts.

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"Sarah and Bristol Trademarked." Says all you need to know. The trademarked presidential candidate. She could wear corporate logo's on her tailored suits.

And that she forgot to sign the application -- perfect.

I think I'll just call her "The Trademark" from now on.

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Anyone else having an upsurge in allergy over the last week? Is it just me?

I'm beginning to think it's a very light cold.

Later: Nope. It's a real cold, and a doozy, and the second cold in the last few months. That never happens.

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It was warmer and sunnier on the coast last weekend than some of our August visits.

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This was the first bookstore roadtrip (more on that later today or tomorrow) that I didn't find a book to buy. Kinda strange.

(I still need to finish my bookstore roadtrip entries...see above "short attention span...")

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Goliath and the Flea.

I had a fellow in yesterday who had had a hobby store in La Pine, and was contemplating a store in Bend.

He'd found a government site with demographics that gave raw numbers on what each 'hobby' was selling in the area. Apparently, if you write in an address, it will tell you how much sold within a certain distance.

So the numbers for some of the hobbies was pretty high; millions, or at least, hundreds of thousands.

Now I applaud him for doing research; but I tried to warn him that, in this case, it probably didn't have as much meaning as he thought.

"Dude," I said. "That isn't going to be your money. It isn't distributed evenly."

What I was trying to express is that the raw demographic numbers don't really reflect what Bend will give you. I believe because of the isolation, the lack of a college, the lack of interstate, the type of industry and the type of residents we get in Bend, that the national averages don't hold up.

But after he left, I realized that we hadn't gotten to the real problem with the raw numbers; the mass market.

I would advise anyone thinking of opening a small business to expect to access only 10% of the total sales in any product line. That 10% has to be divided among all the other independent stores. Actually, 10% is a really high number, 5% is probably more realistic.

For instance, independent bookstores accounted for 6% of book sales last year.

Yes, 6%.

I think the general public has the notion that there is some kind of battle between the small local stores and the national chains. They think in terms of some sort of David and Goliath fight.

Uh, uh. Not even close. That battle was lost long ago.

It's more like a battle between Goliath and a flea, where the flea just hopes the big stupid human won't notice him long enough to swat him down.