Tidings of comfort...

...if not quite joy.

Up through Christmas Eve, we were ahead of last year. I can't tell you how surprising this is. Summer was terrible, so I factored in similar drop. Instead....it's been pretty good.

I wanted to wait until the very end of the week/ month/year, to report results, because I know from experience that after-Christmas sales levels can be very different, and because I didn't want to jinx it, and --well-- because I thought it would be more fun to report an unambiguous increase from last year.

The Bulletin has an article on local sales, so I thought this might be time to say something. The downbeat tone of the article was exactly what I felt I was hearing from other retailers. I suppose, because I expected so little, that the season felt all right to me.

After Christmas week is almost a different season from pre-Christmas. I never know what will happen. It always seems to surprise me.

Sure enough, with a couple of days to go, I've fallen slightly behind, though one more big day (hint, hint -- I'll cut you a deal...) and I'll be right back on track.

The final totals will be within 1% of last year, in any case, so I suppose it's not that meaningful. But here's the thing: I fully expected a 20 to 30% drop.

I think boardgames kind of saved the season, which was pure luck. I did aggressively stock the games, so I'll pat myself on the back for that.

It means I'll be able to pay off not only the business related credit card bills and debts, but also the personal credit card bills. I'll have a completely fresh slate for next year.

I don't want to stop being careful however.

You know that scene in the action film where the hero is tumbling down a hill, and at the last second grabs a branch before he goes over the cliff?

He sighs a big sigh of relief, then....

CRACK!....

...the branch starts to splinter.....

CRACK!!!

I don't want to get too comfortable. I'm still going to be very, very careful next year. Just like the recent stock market increases, customer sentiment can go down just as quickly as it goes up.

But for now.....I'm sighing a big sigh of relief.

CRACK!!!

More flurries....

The city of Bend has hired a consultant who's job it is to hire a consultant -- who no doubt will hire a consultant -- about Mirror Pond.

I give up.

I'm not even going to try to write another satire about that.

********

Meanwhile, is it just me, or does the 911 system in Deschutes County constantly change? And the library system? Do we always need a new jail?

I mean, I understand improvements -- but sometimes it just seems more like change just to make change.

**********

People really did wait until the last moment for Christmas buying this year. Every Holiday Season I fear that what's currently happening back east with the blizzards -- something like that will happen here.

There's a headline on USA TODAY, that says, "Post-Christmas Winter Storms Delay 1B in Retail Spending."

Delay in spending? (Said in whiny Tom Hanks voice.) There's no delay in retail!

Anyway, that's my experience. A lost sale is a lost sale, and it's twice as hard to make up lost ground. (It's hard to make the regular sale today and also try to make the sale you didn't make last week.)

**********

I should've gone into the beer biz -- that, or candy.

Thanks to the Mythbuster's show on the spread of cold germs, I can't stand to be around myself. I'm toxic. Stay away! The infrared dye is everywhere!!!!!!

**********

Congratulations to Deschutes Brewery for their expansion. I always get the sense that they know what they're doing, that they expand in a measured way.

I thought there was an announcement not far back that that space was going to be used for something else, but this makes much more sense.

Good thing we have the parking garage!

**********

Seemed like everyone who walked in the door this Christmas had one of those distinctive Powell's candy bags.

I knew I went into the wrong business.

**********

Because Diamond is shipping to us from back east, I can no longer get regular reorders as quickly.

If you remember, I dropped the 2 day direct shipment of product a while back, because of shipping costs. But if I made orders on Mondays, I still got the product about 10 days later.

That is now expanding to something like 15 days later, and that's just too long.

So I'm going back to the 2 day ship, which I always liked better anyway and only dropped when I realized that I could save a couple hundred dollars a month.

*********

There is an interesting interview in John Gottberg's Blog with Gavin McMichael.
(Owner of The Blacksmith, and Bourbon St., and Marz Bistro.) (I'm sorry, I tried to do a link, but botched it somehow....)

First off, I should say I know nothing about the restaurant business, and have always thought they probably have a completely different set of problems from a retail store.

McMichael makes the case for having multiple restaurants in town:

“Three places are cheaper to run than one.

“This is one of the oldest strategies in the business. It’s so hard for the owner-operator to make any money on just one restaurant. It’s much easier to pull a little from several, and to spread the costs and demands of staff and inventory.”

I had pretty much the exact same reasoning when I opened stores in the Mountain View Mall, Sisters, and Redmond. Unfortunately, for me, it didn't work out that way. Each store took on it's own identity, had it's own needs and requirements -- and most damaging -- each wanted the same first rate material that the other stores needed and there wasn't enough quality resources to go around. (Materials, inventory, employees -- and ultimately, money.)

The thing that damaged me the most was that I was a horrible delegater, and didn't have the systems in place that could make up for that fact.

The quality control of my business -- my hands on making sure everything was working -- spiraled out of my hands. I found running four stores not just four times harder, but sixteen times harder.

My own feeling these days is to either stay small, get bigger in one location, or get really, really big.

I think medium sized chains -- in the three to eight range -- have all the requirements and costs of a bigger chain, but none of the advantages of a smaller store.

The second thing McMichael seems to imply is that Bendites just aren't willing to pay for quality. The high cost of good food.

I don't doubt this. But I also suspect it's pretty much true everywhere. He mentions trying Eugene, but then again Eugene is twice the size metro area, with a big four year university, an interstate, and other metro areas a short distance away.

But, yeah. Bend demands the big city offerings, without in some ways having the population or the demographic or the money to really reward that.

Everyone who opens a business in Bend should be told that "Poverty with a View" isn't just a funny saying. It's true.

Allyson's Kitchen closing.

Allyson's Kitchen is closing.

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the idea that they could "cut" 35,000.00 a month in "expenses". I mean, that's a huge number. I suppose they must be including "cost of goods" in that number, because I simply can 't believe their overhead was that high.

Also, very telling, is that they Expanded in 2008, taking on all kinds of debt.

O.K. I could understand expanding in 2006, maybe even 2007, but by 2008 the handwriting was on the wall to anyone who was paying any attention.

I think this is just one of those cases where a couple decided to have the "perfect" store, and it just wasn't viable.

It's probably time I write a blog I've been thinking about -- the "Perfect" is the enemy of the "Functional" when it comes to stores. Perfection is something you work toward, you don't try to start out as.....because no matter how much planning you've done, you aren't going to get it perfect at first, or ever.

And....no matter how much money you spend.



Meanwhile:

Oddly enough, this closing of a store right after the Christmas season is more unusual than not.

Contrary to what might be expected, stores tend to close during times you'd think they'd try to stay open.

Stores tend to cluster-close just before the beginning of a busy season for a very simple reason. Because that's when they signed the original lease contract. (If they had any brains.)

I think this barrier is breaking down a bit, though, because so many contracts are being loosened; there are probably a number of leases that are going month to month. So it's possible we'll see more closings.

Rent "deals" are mostly under the table, as far as I can tell -- the official rent stays higher than what the store actually pays. This allows the owner of the building to show higher rent to future tenants, while cutting a break for the current tenants, I suppose. And allows the building owner to change his mind at any time. This is all anecdotal, from talking to other store owners, and I can't be sure it's widespread, but it makes sense. (I negotiated for a 10% decrease, which is looking kind of wimpy right now....)

The six months of January through June, are slower in Bend because so much of our business comes from tourism, and July, August and December are by far the most important months.

I've been telling people that I don't actually believe rents have gone down enough -- despite the common perception. And even if they have moderated to some extent, most rent contracts include yearly ('inflation hedge') step increases which can quickly wipe any advantages. I suppose in comparison to what rents COULD BE, it's an improvement, but in comparison to what they USED TO BE, not really that much of an improvement.

As long as vacancy rates stay so low downtown, I don't suppose the owners have much incentive to lower rents -- though a 35% turnover in just two years ought to give them pause. (See the Downtown Comings and Goings list....)

Light flurries.

You know what would be the most perfect day for Christmas to fall on? For a retailer?

Sunday.

Next year, Christmas falls on a Sunday.

Saturday is pretty good, but the day after isn't as good as usual.

**********

"Here -- have a Green Lantern ring. But....you must wear it out the door, and for one hour afterwards....No? Really?"

**********

Woman wanted "The Night Before Christmas." I showed her, "It Ate Billy For Christmas." Why wouldn't she want that? Really.

**********

The customer is always right -- especially when they're wrong.

***********

Natalie Portman should change her last name to her husbands.

Natalie Millepied. Best movie star name ever.

**********

I love Star Wars. I really, really do.

But you know what, George Lucas and Company? Give it a freakin' rest. It ISN'T the modern ODYSSEY.

I wasted two hours last night watching a bunch of professors trying to connect all the mythological dots with Star Wars -- and the Bible, for god's sake, (I like that -- the Bible, for god's sake. heh,) and FAUST and GREEK MYTHOLOGY and so on.

All I could think was -- every story ever told has elements of the above. It's called -- story-telling.

And let Joseph Campbell rest easy in his grave. Have you ever actually tried to read A Hero With A Thousand Faces? Turgid as all get out and in my opinion of doubtful validity. Campbell may be talked about as a Jungian, but there was a bunch of fraudish Freud in there as well.

I loved the interviews Campbell did with Bill Moyer, but those were done years later and maybe he just came to his senses.

But, it really is getting kind of annoying to keep comparing Star Wars so seriously with world literature. If it's really valid -- and much of it probably is -- you don't have to try so hard.

(I suppose I could say the same about the Beatles and world music -- I love the Beatles. I really, really do.)

Juniper Ridge's trippy plans.

I'm going to try to step up my observations about the local scene, now that the Wandering Eye has wandered off, taken it's eye off the ball, so to speak. I'm in no way plugged in politically; I only know what I read in the local news sources, and compare that to my life-long experiences in Bend and my 30 year business experience in downtown Bend.

**********

I see that the city of Bend of still delusional about Juniper Ridge. While the recent zone change to "light industrial" is exactly what I think they should be pursuing at this time, they still couldn't help but add this little nugget of Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds...:

"Once completed, the development might resemble something like NorthWest Crossing on Bend's west side, but on a much larger scale. Mitchell has even described Juniper Ridge as sort of a "city within a city." The Bulletin.

It doesn't seem to me like NorthWest Crossing has proven it's commercial viability, yet. Much less the much larger Juniper Ridge plans.

On a much smaller scale, Northwest Crossing seems to be viable as a sub-division, (does Bend really need to encourage subsidized sub-divisions?) but I see way too much office and retail space empty over there.

The possibility of a university is so long term as to be non-existent. I mean, it could happen 20 or 30 years from now, and they could point out their plans in the year 2010 and say, "See? We planned ahead." But, really. Not much chance of that happening anytime soon.

Well, let's see how quickly new businesses come to town to scoop up the newly available industrial park, shall we? Hopefully, not taking away jobs from another local community, like Les Schwab, or simply moving from one part of town to the other because of tax breaks.

Losing my online friends.

First it was the bubble bloggers. As far as I can tell, they all left town, except Quimby, who was in the store the other day and asking me where everyone went. Ironic, I guess, if the downturn we were all warning about also managed to shut them down.

A couple of days ago, one of the three sites I visit every day to get my comic news, shut down. Journalistica guy was fired by the Comics Journal.

And then Bruce announced that he was shutting down The Wandering Eye. Since he is about the only mainstream, pragmatic liberal voice in the town, this will be a huge loss.

The Baker City connection is looking shaky, though I have no idea what's going on over there. I enjoyed Keeneye's observations about opening a new restaurant, but it sounds like she's got more important things to worry about.

My tiny blogroll on this site consists of my Pegasus Books connection, and Linda's two blogs -- which she has let die.

Over on the Pegasus Books site, I have a longer local blogroll, but by my count about 5 out of 12 are completely inactive. On the professional blogroll, about 4 of the sites are dead.

I'm kind of finicky about what I read online. I find my favorites, and then check them out constantly. It's rare that I actually add to my favorites, and even rarer that any of them become a habit.

I hope I can find some good reads to fill the sudden losses.

What's the Appeal?

I seem to be immune to the charms of video games. I mean, I must really be missing some gene that appreciates them.

I've checked out World of Warcraft, we have a new Wii, and...nothing. Not interested. Todd and Sarah played a couple of hours of Wii last night, and it seemed....I don't know, pointless. I'd much rather read a book.

I think the Quest games or the shooter games seem like a giant waste of time. I like the strategic games a bit better, but I like them crude. Hell, I like Solitaire.

It's the same shrug -- what's the appeal? -- feeling I get with "Reality" T.V. Totally boring to me -- I've tried The Great Race, Survivor, and so on, and again...all I see is a bunch of narcissistic people doing pointless things.

Same thing with situation comedies, though some of the very best I can watch if I have to. But I can't get over the artificiality of the situations. Most soap opera T.V. also bug me -- E.R. or NYPD Blue type shows.

I like genre T.V. Mysteries and S.F., just as I do in my reading.

I can watch hours of junk T.V. like Myth Busters and those lousy history channels programs on Rome and Egypt and all that Alexander the Great and Caesar crap. (Most of them really aren't all that well done or telling me anything I don't already know.)

And I can watch C-Span Book T.V. all day long.

I don't know. Maybe I just want my entertainment to have some content. Video games and reality T.V. seem contentless to me.

Christmas Cold.

I woke up this morning with a cold, the first one in a couple of years.

Weirdly, I knew it was coming. Linda thinks that I actually schedule illness for when I can afford the time to be sick.

My life had in place all the pre-requisites. Exhaustion after a long stressful stretch. A period of looming downtime (three days). And I no longer need to be quite at the top of my game.

I figured the first random bug that came along would get me.

***********

My son Todd and his girlfriend Sarah were home for the weekend, and cooked us a fabulous Christmas meal. Linda's brother Dave came, and my Dad. After opening gifts, we watched the extended AVATAR. Dad made it through about 1 hour and proclaimed he'd be dreaming about big blue people. Dave hadn't seen it before, and I enjoyed watching it without the 3-D. (And thankful that I went with the biggest screen I could buy). Linda saw it for about the umpteenth time -- she loves this movie.

It was great to have a family Christmas, in some ways our first after the passing of Mom and then Tina. I hope we can make some kind of tradition of it. When it's just Linda and I, we don't bother much with all the accoutrements.

**********

Business was good this Christmas season. I don't want to say anymore until the end of the month, because this last week is important and I don't want to jinx it. I shall give a full accounting -- but, well, it's looking good. (See, I can be positive when warranted!)

I'm going to bop to the store to vacuum, because it really got a bit too much at the end, mostly little pebbles all over the carpet that would roll under my feet, but I never seemed to have the free half hour to scoop them up.

Then on to doing the monthly orders -- as soon as Todd and Sarah take off. Once again, I'm thankful that this 8 or 10 hour job isn't that onerous to me. I can even do the first part while watching football.

***********


My subconscious is so subtle -- not!

I dreamed I was working in this vast warehouse, and the employees were throwing Christmas bulbs at each other, seeing how far we could throw them and try to catch them without breaking. The bulbs are exploding all over the place and we're having a grand time.

I see a little kid -- about five or six -- watching from the sidelines, and I gently underhand throw a small bulb at him.

It EXPLODES -- shattering water and glass all over the kid, who's now transformed into a little baby. He's completely drenched in water and crying loudly but otherwise unharmed.

It's the bosses baby. So now I'm afraid I'm going to be fired.

Scene Change.

We're in the foreman's office above the factory for the Christmas party. I go into the next room where there is a toilet, and when I flush it, it overflows and overflows, and fills the floor and the mattress on the floor and I'm thinking: "Do I say anything?"

Just then, we're called down to the floor of the factory. While we've been upstairs the factory has been completely emptied, except for some tables where the workers line up to get their LAST paycheck...


Thus concludes three nights of absolutely horrid dreams. All Christmas stress related.

And yet at the store, business has been much better than I expected. It's like the dreams are the exact opposite of what's actually happening.

I say this every year -- I can't wait for Christmas season to get here, and then -- I can't wait for it to be over....

Biz thots

And interesting thing about inflation.

Every time I replace a classic book, it seems like the cover price of the newest printing is at least 1.00 over the last time I ordered. I mean, this can be in a period of just months, usually not much more than a year.

I'm talking about trade paperbacks, mostly -- which are the oversized paperbacks. So they'll run 12.00 one day, 14.00 the next quarter. 16.00 the next year.

Mass market paperbacks are trending to 8.99 on the regular size, and 9.99 on the tall books (I hate the tall books -- so unnecessary.)

***********

With major comic shops folding all over the U.S.A. there is a lot of talk about 'Diversity.'

But, methinks they don't really understand diversity. Diversity in comic shops doesn't mean adding a couple of Dark Horse or Image titles to your Marvel/DC mix. It means carrying every type of comic you can possibly afford, in every format.

Diversity in game stores doesn't mean adding a couple of Settlers of Catan boardgames to your Magic and Warhammer inventory. It means carrying R.P.G.'s, and most of the major boardgames. (Games may not be the best example for me -- because of space and time concerns, I sort of limit my reach.)

Diversity to new book stores, doesn't mean adding another line of coffee, and another couch. It means going outside the best-sellers and looking for idiosyncratic books that no one else has.

But most of all, DIVERSITY means -- carrying all of the above, plus toys and anime and t-shirts and art books. You know, being me. Anyway, I find that it's working.

To me diversity means carrying all kinds of product that doesn't immediately sell. It's the mix that counts; sometimes the non-sellers are what makes the seller sell.

I see advice columns all the time telling small business owners to be ruthlessly efficient in their inventory.

Wrong. Doubly wrong for smaller stores. That may work for Target or Walmart, but it's not what people expect from you. Customers want to see the unusual, the strange, the new, the old, the offbeat, the best-sellers, and they want to browse around your store and not see exactly the same ten best-sellers they just saw at Fred Meyer.

But I know that I set out on this course a full 20 years ago, when sports cards collapsed and then comics collapsed. I swore I would never let one or two product lines dictate my very existence ever again.

**********

This may slightly contradict what I just said, but I've been thinking something this Christmas that seems to be more true than ever.

There is more material for sale in the world than ever before, but at the same time --- there is less ready availability.

Now, many of you internet buyers will dispute this, but to me, having to get on the internet and search for the product and order it and give them my credit card number and wait for the product to ship -- is NOT "ready availability."

Ready availability is being able to call a store, find that they have it in stock, and go get it.

Anyway, this is the very essence of the "Long Tail Theory" of merchandising. Just about everything your little heart desires is available somewhere. But most every thing your little heart desires isn't available most everywhere. If you get the distinction.

When the mass market started killing me with their prices, my response was to carry the same stuff, perhaps higher priced but as close as I could get, plus I'd order the stuff the big guys didn't have. In other words, I had to do both. The way I did this, was to carry small amounts of everything and depend on my ability to order more and get it in quickly.

My response to the internets vast ability to carry everything, is not to specialize even more, but to try to carry as many different kinds of things as possible.

I guess I'm trying to have something customers want, even if I don't have everything customers want.

Downtown Comings and Goings.

Tres Jolie. I've seen this advertised in the Source, and I believe it's a new business.

Meanwhile, since Marz Bistro has a new name -- Deco Bistro -- a new owner and it sounds like new decor and menu, I'm now listing them. NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(Fall, 2008 or so.)

Things are humming.

Amazing how often I make the same business mistakes over and over again.

The difference in longevity is that I make slightly less of them.

**********

Funny. I don't even bother to read the news reports about how Christmas sales are doing. Because of my experience, I just don't believe 1.) they know, and 2.) if anyone did know they'd be telling them the real scoop.

Maybe the quarterly earnings will say something, for those who know how to read between the lines.

But mostly, every store is different.

**********

As I mentioned yesterday, I'm a tad tuckered out. After getting the comics put away, Linda called and needed some VISA rolls for her store, so I left Cameron in charge and went over. Then I decided to drive home, fell onto my office futon, and slept for half an hour. Got up and went back to work.

Wish I could do that every day.

**********

I went crazy on boardgames, because I was afraid of running out. I'm probably going to end up with multiple copies of the big three: Ticket to Ride, Settlers of Catan, and Carcassonne, and most of their expansions.

Also went a little nuts with Small World and Dominion and Munckin and a bunch of others.

All good games it won't take me much of 2011 to sell.

Overall, I'm as stocked with the best selling product as I ever am, even after a busy week, because I made sure I immediately reordered. I'm not counting until the end of the year whether I overdid it, but I do know the store feels and looks good.

Bottom of the ninth inning.

O.K. I admit this is wimpy of me, and there is probably nothing more boring. But I've run into a bit of roadblock with this going to work an hour early and staying an hour late.

I'm tired.

It's not just the hours -- lots and lots of people, and I'm doing more selling pitches (because they work this time of year) and talking to everyone and -- about 4:00 yesterday I looked at a regular customer who I knew would forgive me and said, "I can't say another word. Go...."

Give me a choice between working everyday for days on end but for only a few hours, or working for only a few days but with long hours, I'll pick the former every time. Unlike my wife, who would much rather do the latter.

I think it's a matter of stamina. I've noticed before that I seem to run out steam on long trips, for instance, when other people are still raring to go. I came home last night and crashed.

Oh, well. Only three days to go. I'm going to moderate to half an hour early, and half an hour late --unless it seems busy.

I don't want to jinx things, so I'll just say that business is better than I expected so far -- and in talking to other merchants, that doesn't seem to be generally true.

I'm selling the hell out of boardgames, and I've gone out of my way NOT to run out of any important product, or if I run out to have it back in the store the next day. (Unlike that stupid USA Today headline that said stores are running out of product -- maybe the mass market is running out, but not THIS store!)

Onward and upward. I'll no doubt have all of January and February to recover....

In the moment....

I'm just giving it all over to the store. All my attention, my focus.

So what else is new, right?

Well, I mean, this is more like being in the batter's box -- trying to stay loose, staying in the moment, watching the ball. Trying to hit it out of the park.

I can be a pretty good salesman when I try, and when my mood is right. So I'm spending a whole lot of time trying to regulate my mood. Staying loose and relaxed and cheerful.

I made yet another game order, because I realized that if I sold more than 1 or 2 of each of the major games per day, I could be sold out by Christmas Eve. This will be the 4th game order this season, when I intended to do only one, possibly two.

My instincts are to keep pounding away at whatever is selling, and boardgames have been selling.

I'm trying very hard to keep expectations down, or -- more to the point -- not have any expectations, and just go with the flow.

One deal I made with myself. I would go to work an hour earlier, and stay an hour later for the last six days before Christmas. If I could make, say, 50.00 an hour, that would almost pay for the last couple of game shipments.

I could wish that not so much depended on a single week like this, but this is what Christmas has become and instead of fighting it, I'm trying to really make sure I'm ready to make the most of it.

Flurries....

I'm getting lots of new people in the door, not only from out of town, but locals.

And they express surprise at what Pegasus Books offers.

I would submit, any of you who read this blog and haven't been in yet. You might be surprised by what Pegasus Books offers.

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Sexual intercourse began/ In nineteen sixty-three/ (Which was rather late for me)/ Between the end of the Chatterley ban/ And the Beatles' first LP."

--Philip Larkin, "Annus Mirabilis" (Snagged from the Shelf Awareness blog) from High Windows.

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Watched Southland Tales the other day, and for the first half -- my reaction was pretty much -- WTF? WTF?

Then there was a nifty musical number, sexy girls in spandex and explosions, and I started digging it, man. Reminded me of New Wave S.F. from the 70's -- if anyone remembers that; Spinrad, Moorcock, Ballard.

A weird, ambitious mess which was kind of fun, in the end.

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Caught the last three hours of Cleopatra last night. Hard to imagine a Hollywood movie spending money so ridiculously nowadays, I could have done with less parades and more action. Glacial pacing. Over the top acting.

A chubby superstar. I kind of liked it. Also hard to imagine nowadays.

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Since you are all so patient listening to my bitching, I probably should mention that we have pulled even with last year in sales for Christmas. Which would be a most excellent result, indeed.

I don't expect that to hold to the end of the month, but it's a great 2/3rds point.

So much depends on the last five days before Christmas....however....

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Back when I first started writing this blog, I wondered if there would be a repeat of that time in the 80's when the rest of the country seems to be recovering from a recession, while Bend is still mired in the pits. It's a sucky feeling, let me tell you. Hard to explain to out of town friends that the local economy hasn't picked up, when places as close as Portland and Eugene seem to be booming.

I think we're about to re-enter that phase.

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So City of Bend, how's the "Hoping for No Snow" plan workin' out for ya?

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Took a leap of faith, and made three more reorders this morning, which should arrive around Wednesday. Mostly evergreen stuff that we can always sell, but beyond my original budget.

Been feeling good about this Christmas, probably because I went into it expected so very little.

The cat is out of the bag.

A consensus seems to be emerging about comics and comic shops; and it isn't pleasant.

Maybe I should say, "The cat has been let out of the bag."

Here's what usually happens. A retailer timidly pipes up and says, "Gosh. You know, I love comics and all, but sales have been a bit down, you know, and, ah, is anyone else feeling that?"

And sometimes there are a few equally timid agreements, "Yeah. We're feeling a bit of that."

And then, almost invariably, a couple retailers will barge in and say, "Why we're having our best year ever! Our sales are ever higher!" (Intimating, you know -- "what wrong with YOU.")

Which stops all discussion, instantly.

Never mind that often those guys proclaiming their greatness are most often newer stores who are still in a growth stage -- all consideration of the financial climate stops cold.


There has been a confluence of news lately that seems to have blown the lid off the kettle.

NUMBER ONE:

The announcement that DC was rolling prices on all comics to 2.99; and that Marvel was going to follow suit on "some" of their comics. Which seems to be an acknowledgment that the 3.99 price was a bridge too far.

This announcement was followed by a realization that this change would take place during the slowest part of the year for comics (January and February) and would mean a 25% drop in profit on each comic sold.

A prominent creator and former publisher, Josh Blaylock of Devil's Due, wrote a column that pointed out the dangers and cried, "Watch out below!' It was a bit self-serving and perhaps a tad bitter, but he has a point.

NUMBER TWO:

The news that several large and prominent comic shops were having trouble. I've mentioned Comic Relief, and how influential it was to my thinking at Pegasus.

NUMBER THREE:

The figures released that showed that for 3 out of the last 4 months, the best-selling comic in the country hadn't topped 100,000 copies. Which ten years ago, would have been inconceivable.

NUMBER FOUR:

The overall bad news in the book trade as a whole. There were many comic people who had placed great hope that the mass market would do a better job than the direct comic shop market in selling non-superhero comics, but with manga sales dropping like a rock, there is some reassessment going on.

NUMBER FIVE:

Digital projects announced. The indy creators are now turning to the hope of digital comics for the future. I think this is equally foolish as their hopes for the mass market, but I guess we'll see. Hard to see how the whole comic book structure survives without comic shops...

NUMBER SIX:

And probably the real game breaker, was a recent column from an extremely influential and well-known comic retailer, Brian Hibbs of Comic Experience in San Francisco, talking about his concerns for the future of comics. He focuses on the short-term tactics of Marvel and DC to focus on one-shots, mini-series, and especially Mega - Events. (Ironically, Marvel announced only a day or two later that they were through taking a 'breather' on Events, and were planning some big ones.)



I waited for the inevitable backlash to all this downbeat news-- and as far as I can see, it doesn't seem to be happening. There just seems to be an acknowledgment on the part of most in the industry that, yes, we live in 'challenging' times (to use a wimpy term.)

Hibbs admits that his sales have been down 17 out of the last 19 months. And no one seems to think that's unusual.

Anyway, I too have noticed that comic sales are struggling -- and it's nice to have some company. I'm more diversified than most comic shops, so I perhaps haven't been hurt quite as much. It's looking like I'll come out the end of the year with a profit in the bank, all bills paid, and the store fully inventoried -- which is my overall goal.

I, personally, believe the local and national economy are taking more of a toll on my business than comics themselves, but that could be an individual situation.

But I'm not going to be the killjoy who will point out that I'm doing fine, because all the above factors are in play and need to be talked about.

Potentials aren't realilty.

I was sitting in my office, drinking a glass of wine or two (a rare occurrence, these days...) and staring at my ceiling fan, and thinking about potentialities and actual use.

I can pull a little chain and that fan will start spinning. Sure, it's winter and why would I do that? But I don't do it through most of the summer, either. And yet, the potentiality is always there, even if I don't use it 99% of the time. It looks good, it could be useful, but really -- does it really replace the air-conditioner?

I'm sitting at my computer, and I use maybe 1% of of it's potentiality -- but that 1% uses an incredible amount of my time.

So -- the Kindle.

I can see myself buying it, but will I use it? Or will I fall back to reading books as usual? Will other people buy it, only to let it sit on the desk? Or will it take off, in a truly useful way?

I read that Amazon will have the actual ability to know how much or how little you actually read of a book you download. Never mind the slightly Big Brother aspects of that notion; but it points to how much we all want to have the capability of things, but don't always actually use them.
The technology for picture phones existed for decades, but no one really wanted them.

I was talking to a librarian yesterday, and I said, "Gosh, no one seems to talk about the impact of e-books on libraries."

"Well, we can loan out an e-book, too. E-books still cost money, you know. "

"And then, when the loan-out period is over, the book simply disappears," chimed in her husband.

"Wow. Is that a good thing? I mean, that means that anyone could do that -- Amazon, the government, ...."

I still swing back and forth on the potentialities of the e-book. Half the time, I think that we bookstores are bemoaning our fate a little too much. Other times, like when I look at what happened to anime and manga in my store (the little darlings are pirating these off the internet to an almost exclusive rate), I think we might be all underestimating it.

In a sense, I've positioned Pegasus Books to be something like a Gift Store. People wander into gift stores and see something they like -- and for that you need tourist traffic, walk-in traffic, and maybe a bit of inventory that draws regulars.

The more "destination" you are, the more I think you'll be hit by 1.) the mass market. 2.) the internet and 3.) e-books. I'd submit that Barnes and Noble and Borders meet these criteria more than your small independent bookstore.

I sold a bunch of books yesterday to people who didn't know the book they bought even existed. "Night of the Living Trekkies." "Dick and Jane and Vampires." "The Melancholy Death of Oyster Boy." That kind of thing.

I can keep that up all day, because there are no end of quirky books, and there is no substitute for stumbling across them and picking them up and reading a few paragraphs and declaring, "I must have this...."

A comic store's legacy.

I've had several inspirations for my store's layout over the years. One of my major influences was a fellow named Rory Root who had a store in Berkeley called, Comic Relief. Whenever I posted on the Comic Book Industry Alliance, he was always especially helpful and considerate. (Which isn't always true -- there can be a tad bit of group think and one-ups-man-ship over there, just like any established small group. It's a great resource, if you can cut through the egos. Including mine.)

Anyway, I struggled for a long time with the idea of bringing in independent comics. Think of a movie theater trying to show independent films. It's a big decision. Obviously, not as lucrative as the tentpole movies, but then again, no one else is doing it.

I finally decided to go for it, partly because of stories about Rory's store, and partly because of Scott's store down in Ashland, More Fun. (I figured if Scott could do it in a small tourist town, so could I.)

I'm glad I did it. It hasn't been easy, but I think it's been helpful to the longterm survival of the store.

I don't think I'm being egotistical, though, to believe that not many other people running my business could pull it off. It has taken years of experience, as well as the ongoing intention of carrying this kind of material. It isn't always obviously profitable in the short term.

I've built it up slowly, taking advantage of every opportunity. And I'm proud of it.

Rory passed away awhile back, and his family took over the store. Apparently, they ran it like a business -- straight into the ground.

I've known for a long time, that I could run this business very differently, and perhaps even make more money, but I wouldn't be happy doing it and being happy in my job seems just as important as the money -- more so, the longer you do it. (Ah, hem -- best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever had.....?)

But if you go for the money and you don't know what you're doing, you're likely to get the opposite reaction from your customers. If you draw the wrong conclusions, which I believe most people probably would, you'll accelerate the downward spiral by focusing on the best-sellers even more, until eventually, nothing is selling.

You can't always assign a direct dollar to dollar value on your inventory -- sometimes you carry material to, well, sell OTHER stuff. Hard to explain, but it's more an overall fabric that you can't pull too many threads from without it all falling apart.

Comic shops seems to be very connected to the personality of their owners, which makes it hard to reproduce success. It's a bit of an object lesson for me, and as I near the end of my career, I'm trying to make my store more inventory than personality based in it's focus -- my having employees is on purpose, because the store isn't really successful in some ways until it can sell stuff no matter who's running it. (As long as the keepers are doing a moderately good job...)

The article about Comic Relief's demise makes it sound like it's going down because Rory was too focused on non-selling product. My guess is that, in fact, the opposite happened. The new owners got too focused on what what they thought was best-selling product, and in some ways lost the whole point of Comic Relief and Rory's business philosophy. Which, while it was probably always challenging to survive, was it's very reason for being.