"Hello, Screwup, my old friend...

....I've come to talk with you again."

Came to work yesterday, and my internet service was offline. In removing the desk, and disconnecting the wires, the modem decided to give up the ghost. So I was without internet all day yesterday. I called my techie friend, Aaron, who came by that afternoon and decided that, indeed, the modem was the problem. We called Qwest, who is going to send us a new modem, free of charge, but not until Thursday or Friday.

So, thats.......Screwup #1.

When it came time to make the last bookcase, I took one look at the box and knew it would be broken. This has happened at least three times over the years with these bookcases, which are 6 ft. tall, and only flex so much. (When I hear that corporations are more efficient, this is one of those contradicting facts -- stupid wastage.)

Called Staples up, and they agreed to send another shelf, again by Thursday or Friday.

There it is.......Screwup #2.

Funny, when the screwups happened, I had the strangest reaction -- "Oh, THERE you are, Mr. Screwup. I KNEW you'd be coming along." I figure Screwups come in threes, so I'm expecting one more.. At least, I've taken the measure of them.

So as soon as the last bookcase shows up, and the modem is hooked up, I can finish the job.

I'll stock everything else between now and then. (Basically means I have to leave the bookcase that goes on top of the modem wires empty -- and of course, the bookcase yet to arrive.)

In the end, everything fit, and to my eyes, the store does looks cleaner and more streamlined -- as well as roomier. Weird how that happens. Subtraction by Addition.

There wasn't a centimeter to spare. Not one. But it all fit, which was extremely gratifying.

I've got a rough idea of how I'm going to stock the shelves -- the green shelves are going to look a little bare for awhile.

My usual strategy when I'm making significant structural changes is not to order any product while I'm doing it.

What does that mean?

I think it means that I don't just order product because it's stuff I think I can sell.

I order product to create a sense of "happening" as much as anything. To give the customers something new to look at. To make the case that I'm constantly evolving. That there will always be something surprising and new.

Makeovers do all of the above -- and also cost a bit of money. So, in a way, I'm just diverting the inventory budget into the infrastructure budget for a few weeks. I'm letting the structural changes make the case that I'm improving the store; that I'm committed to the store; that I'm a happenin' place.

I'll be out of touch for a few days, except in the morning and when I come home at night. It's already driving me nuts.

Squirrel!

Credit is due for the promotional efforts for the local production of Little Shop of Horrors, in that they actually caught my attention.

The 25.00 price of a ticket. That sort of leaped out at me.

Really? I'm really out of the loop these days, but I had no idea. I'm not complaining here -- prices are what prices are, and there is -- usually -- a good reason for them. I just had no idea that a local production could charge 25.00.

(Yeah, yeah, comics are 3.99. What of it?)

**********

I'm probably just chronicling my sad descent in Old Fogeyness, but I couldn't name you a Gaga tune, and I wouldn't know one if I heard it. Not proud of that. At least, unlike my wife, I'd heard of her.

**********

Walked out of the movie theater last night (Resident Evil) and both Linda and I stopped dead in our tracks. A solid sheet of water. A huge flash and a second later a boom. Ummmm

We looked to our right and saw the Hawaiian restaurant -- (Kona Plate? Like I said, we didn't wander off into the street to see the sign) -- and we ducked in there. "Want to have dinner?" So, one of those rare times when Linda and I actually ate out. Nice food.

The sunset looked like the end of the world.

**********

Squirrel!

***********

Ready to finish up the store, today. At least the physical part. The stocking of inventory is going to take longer.

I don't know why, but the whole process is kind of euphoric for me. I think it must be a bit like Shopping Addiction, or something. I just really like to dive in and move things around, and fix things up.

I have to restrain myself. This changeover has been two years in the making. I was planning to do it last September --but decided to hold pat. I wanted to sell off a few more manga and anime and toys and cards to make room.

It's good to delay. I have lots of ideas come to me the longer I dwell on it. Even taking more time to do the project -- though it hurts sales in the short run -- is a good thing to do. It's less stressful, and it also gives my subconcious time to work out creative solutions.

In fact, it's an awful lot like the creative high I get on the first draft of a fictional story. But also like writing, the actual process is always so much more difficult than the original ideas....

More Godzilla dustballs.

Halfway there.

Had the whole crew at the store to move the big fixtures downstairs. This part of the process always makes me nervous, because things rarely go according to plan, and if something goes awry, it's goes awry in a big way. Plus, I don't want any of my employees hurt.

I always make a big talk about going slow, not trying to lift too much. I tell the crew about my double hernia operation. But I know, once we get started, it will be almost impossible for red-blooded American males to admit they need a rest, or that it's too heavy, or that they are feeling a strain.

Went as smooth as could be, got it done in less than half an hour.

We went Egyptian style moving on the biggest rack -- using cardboard skids. (Egyptians had cardboard? asked Cameron.)

I was deep in thought, and thought I heard Jasper say something to me. I didn't answer but just stared blankly at him, and then heard him say, "he's gone...."

Well, I did warn them. I joked that if I don't like how it looks, we'd be hauling everything back. Worse than the proverbial New Yorker cartoon housewife, I am. "I want it there --- no, there -- no, put it back where it was...."

I had to make a couple of small changes to my plans, but nothing major. I never can quite situate inventory where it makes the most sense -- I have to situate inventory where it will fit.
Still in the jigsaw puzzle phase -- and won't really be able to complete the look until the other half is done.

Sometimes, there's a nice surprise. I consolidated all my Star Wars books into one of the bookcases; and I realized that the 18"s that I had left over were EXACTLY the same size as the Star Wars toys spin rack, and they fit snugly next to each other. BONUS!

I still have to construct the 5 larger bookcases (or rather, have Matt do it) and then I'll need to move all the manga to the back wall. Then I have to pull the green bookcases up to the front of the row, and move the toy spin racks and t-shirt rack to the back. I have to move the remaining card rack four inches to the right -- which will take most of a morning. (Four freakin' inches...)

I have to transplant the posters from the two racks, to the one new rack (or rather, I asked Jasper to do that today.)

Then I need to move all five of the big bookcases against the wall, transfer the designer toys to two of them. Move the two small bookcases to their pre-chosen spots, and so on.

Only then can I really begin to move the inventory around.

I'm hoping that a friend well come by to pick up my desk. I decided that with my laptop, the whole big desk isn't really necessary. I'll can just use the counter top.

Anyway, the whole process is kind of uplifting. It makes me feel rejuvenated. I just like doing this sort of thing -- I mean, I dread the actual process, and I'm not crazy about all the hard work, but I enjoy the planning and the results.

I don't know if it will help sales, but I know it was time to make a change. Stuff needed to be retired or moved; and in the process, a lot of cleaning and straightening goes on. Godzilla dustballs.

I need to withhold judgment until it's actually finished -- things can look pretty bad halfway through, and then miraculously come together at the end. (Which seems to be true of many creative endeavors.) It can look either like less of a change than I expected, or more of a change -- and sometimes, in some strange way, both. It needs to gain -- to earn -- a 'lived in' look. At first, the inventory will look out of place.

If it niggles at me long enough, I know I need to move things around until it stops niggling at me. (That isn't the N word, folks.)

So the next big moving day is Tuesday, and by the end of that day, I should have the basic framework in place. Then another week or so of situating the inventory -- and another month or so, of moving stuff around until I feel comfortable.

I should gain the equivalent of at least seven large bookcases, plus the two green shelves that are probably the equivalent of another 3 bookcases in linear feet. My guesstimate is about 140 more linear feet of shelves. About half of that new space is due to better organizing and consolidation, and about half is due to retiring dead product.

Strangely, despite the new shelves, it should free up some floor space and make everything look a little cleaner and streamlined. Subtraction by addition, I call it.

I'm going to try not to fill all the shelves at once, but use them to more properly display what I already have -- well, at least half that space. This is the real battle. I always want to order more stuff, but I'm not the sure the flooring will stand it much longer....

Sunday snips.

Who needs terrorists, when we have infrastructure bombs everywhere?

***********

So, according to Jason Evers, he did those things because he was afraid for his life.

Gosh. He wouldn't lie about that, would he?

**********

So one in seven Americans have fallen into poverty, and we're arguing over a tax 'increase' for people earning 250,000.00 a year? Whatever.

**********

Old Fogey alert: Kids should not be allowed to use spell check in school. The only way I learned how to spell was by systematically looking up words in a dictionary, and memorizing...

**********

Seems like there should be a juicy investigative report in sidewalk ramp fiasco; especially since it coincides with Juniper Ridge and BAT fiasco's. What happened?

**********

Spotted Mule is going out of business.....and out of business....and out of business...............

**********

I bet if Wimp Way had been named Chuck Norris Way, (Testosterone Avenue? Schwarzenagger Drive? He-Man Boulevard? Muscleman Street?) they wouldn't have closed it. They wouldn't have dared.

**********

Hurricane Igor? Oh, oh.

**********

Godzilla dustballs.

Buster was busting my chops over "spending money" and "having employees."

Well, I figure having three part-timers is more like paying myself -- with time.

Meanwhile, as far as changing the store around and spending money, I just feel it is time to make changes. I think the store will look and feel better. But I'm not sure it will result in more sales.
I was expressing those doubts to Linda, and she just sort of laughed.

"You say that every time," she said. "But it always ends up working out."

You just develop a sense of when it's time to stand pat and when it's time to make changes. I trust that impulse.

I don't want anyone thinking I'm spending huge amounts of money -- on either the makeover or the employees. I try to get as big a bang for the buck as possible. It's within my cash flow budget.

Set Matt to making the bookcases, and it wasn't until he was done making four of them that I realized I'd been dreading that. So I've told him to make the other two cases we'll need on Sunday; and to come back on Tuesday and finish off the other five cases. By the end of Tuesday, I should be done -- except for all the fine adjusting.

You want to know what's scary? How much dust can accumulates behind a fixture in a few years.

Godzilla dustballs.

I think the store will look more streamlined, cleaner and less cluttered, at the end.

************

Did you see the median housing prices in Bend last month? Wow. Scary.

Glad (!?) to see I wasn't the only one that had a horrible August.

I'm waiting to see how Sept. and Oct. go before I decide whether it's just one of those anomaly months -- like throwing out the highest and lowest scores in a test to grade for the curve.

***********

Back when I first started this blog, I used to toss out completely made up percentages as to what I thought was going to happen.

I haven't done that for awhile, so here goes.

I think there is, say, a 10 to 15% chance of a complete and utter collapse in the economy; Great Recession turns into Great Depression #2. If you are a great believer in Murphy's Law -- Watch Out!.

I think there is a 10 to 15% chance we'll pick up quickly, and get back to a truly growing economy. (Hard to say how this can happen, what with the debt load out there, but I don't underestimate American's ability to convince themselves -- )

Which leaves a 70 to 80% chance of, what? Muddling Through.

Of that, I'd split it 60/40% that we'll struggle for the next three or four years down, and then three or four more years along the bottom, which along with the two to three years we've already experience, means a Dead Decade.

The 40% chance is that we start bumping along the bottom soon, and have extremely slow growth thereafter, for a very Dull Decade.

Dead or Dull. Some choice.

"Let's change everything today!"

I haven't been doing customer counts. I wish I were. Maybe I should start doing them now.

But it's hard to be accurate, and the more employees I have, the harder it gets. Since I have three part-timers, right now, the counts would probably be all over the place. Ultimately, it probably really doesn't matter, except to satisfy my curiosity.

Anyway, it's hard to gauge whether I'm getting, say, 50 people a day, or 60 people a day, and that's a whomping 17% difference right there.

My sense is, that foot traffic was probably down, especially early in the summer, but that it didn't account for the fullness of the drop in sales.


Coming to work, today, another measure really leaped out at me. A cash register full of 1.00's, 5.00's and 10.00's.

Sure, that's great and all. But I'd much rather have a cash register full of 20.00's, 50.00's and 100's, you know?

It says to me that the heart is willing, but the flesh is weak. 5.00 sales are what people do when they want to 'shop' but they really don't want to 'spend.'

Sort of like my 'Empty Parking Spaces in Front of My Store' gauge, it's pretty hard to measure. It's easy to fool oneself, to confirm one's own biases. Still....sometimes, that's all you got.

Of course, the ultimate measure is money in the bank.


Meanwhile, going forward with the makeover. Went to Staples and bought the 3 more new bookcases I need, for a total of six 4' tall shelves, and five 6' tall shelves. Those, plus turning my manga shelves over to fiction, will make more of a bookstore statement. The more I look at the store, the more I realize that it is past time to retire old toys and cards that simply haven't been selling. I'm hoping that I can restrain my impulse to fill every inch so that some of the new bookshelves can display my books better.

It's hard to know until I do it, but I think this change will make the store look more streamlined and less cluttered. Sometimes I put everything in place and realize it doesn't work, and I have to make secondary changes. Giving myself time to ruminate helps avoid that.

I just sit on my stepstool and stare at the walls and try to visualize and stare some more and try to visualize alternative looks and then stare some more.

The best way to do a makeover is all at once. Stressful, but you get the business killing chaos out of the way. The worst way to do a makeover is slowly, which customers seem to instinctively recoil from.

So which am I doing? You got it. The latter; mostly because I just don't want that kind of stress level, and I'm just hoping that I can get away with doing it in stages. I don't really want to stay until midnight for a couple of days; but instead would like to do most of it during store hours.
My youthful -- "Let's change everything today!" days are over, I guess.

Of course, once I actually get going, I tend to accelerate. So, hopefully, I'll be done within a week or so. Just in time to order more books.

Maneuvering ourselves into a corner.

A big part of the argument for mass transit in Bend has been -- everyone else has one. Everyone bigger than us, and some towns smaller than us. Ordinarily, I probably would have just gone along with the program. I have voted for each of the tax measures that have come up.

But when the mass transit in Bend was first formed, my hackles were raised a bit by the tone the whole enterprise took. There was an assertion that, "no problem" it will be easy, "won't cost much at all!" which simply didn't ring true. If that was so, why hadn't it been done before?

I suspected there was more to it.

Anyway, like a bunch of rubes, we got taken for a whole lot of money by buying 'Brooklyn Bridge' buses that continually broke down. (the same rubeness that seemed to have infected the whole Juniper Ridge idea, and ... I have to wonder... how did we end up with sidewalk ramps that didn't fit code? How do these things keep happening? Is it because we grew so fast? We weren't ready to be a real live MetroArea, in some ways....)

And, because of the way mass transit came about, I started doing some adding up on costs, and it seemed a little crazy. It seemed more like we were doing it because it was expected of us, than because it was actually an effective system. For the riders who need the bus system, it's a great good. But is it a cost effective good for the town? It literally seemed as though we could pay for taxi rides for everyone who needed one and save money.

Turns out, not so cost effective after all. Turns out that it will have to be supported by public monies -- forever. It's something we do for the sake of the people in need, and -- though again, this seems sort of less than convincing -- for the environment

Fine. But that isn't the way it was sold to us.

"Get over it," I know some of you will say. It's a public good, and it needs to be done.

So...I'll lay aside my concerns about whether it truly is an effective way to spend public monies, and address it's current problems. Assuming it's a public good. Assuming that our public is willing to support the public good just as much as all the other towns and districts.

Why hasn't that happened?

I think it's because the public has a long memory. You can't just sweep the failures under the rug. And in a sense, that's what local officials are trying to do. They're trying to present us with a fait accompli.

"See?" They want to be able to say. It works now. It's worth supporting now.

I predicted that when they sloughed off the transit to a wider district, it was to obscure its troubled beginnings and to spread the blame and the risk. The city of Bend is still paying out a large chuck of it's general fund in support, though. They really need and want a tax district and are hoping that by supporting the system just a little longer, they can present the public with the dilemma of dismantling an already existing system, or biting the bullet, and paying for it with a tax measure.

I believe they may have outsmarted themselves, however. By spreading the risk into smaller outlying areas, they may have made it impossible for a measure to get passed. Check out the votes for any county wide measure -- there is that solid core of public minded voters at the center of Bend, but the further you move out, the more NO! votes you'll get.

Growing up in Bend, I swear every school measure would fall by about the Negative Vote total in the rural districts.

So they've diluted the most solid supporters of mass transit, and brought into play voters who will almost automatically vote down ANY tax measure.

Hard to believe that our town will dismantle an existing mass transit. I wonder if that has ever happened?

But also hard to see how they're ever going to fund it.

Black Bart Bank.

So Linda goes in to Bank of America and pays off the Home Equity Loan in full.

Actually, it turns out, she overpaid.

So there was a balance of about around 600.00 left, that they owed US. Despite her asking to pay off the entire loan, in full, everything.

So we get a statement, and they're charging us an 86.00 "finance charge" because we still have a balance.

You know, a POSITIVE BALANCE!! They owe us money, so they charge us for still having an account with them!! After asking them how much we owe them, IN FULL.

When we first went in to get our Home Equity Loan, we wanted about half of what we ended up getting. We wanted a fixed loan. And so on. We got talked into a loan limit twice what we really wanted --"Because we'll waive the fees--" the guy says.

And it turned into an Interest Only loan for five years.

O.K. My bad. I didn't walk out when I had the impulse. I just told myself that I would hold back the half we didn't need, and pay off the loan early. We also made hefty payments over the last four years, and had it about half paid off. The interest rate was really low.

But I remember specifically telling the loan officer -- Countrywide, before all the news came out about this mortgage company and before B of A took them over -- "We WILL be paying this off early, and we don't want any charges for that."

So it turns out, the over-600.00 they held was, in fact, early payment fees.

Linda challenged them on that, and they backed down, which I suspect means that in fact we weren't supposed to be charged early payment fees.

They still managed to screw us for 86.00.

Wow.

We'll see if we get the balance back. Or whether they'll continue to cause us grief. And whether they'll wait long enough to continue to charge us a finance fee:

For owing US money....

Incredible.

Books are arriving.

I got about six hundred new books last week -- nine large boxes worth. I was able to fit about 40% into existing shelves, the rest is being stored until I do my makeover. I have another couple of hundred yet to come, and I'll probably order another 200 after I'm done.

I've decided to do the makeover in stages -- the biggest stage is getting all three employees in at the same time to move the bigger fixtures. It's going to be a struggle to get them downstairs, but it has to be done.

Meanwhile, over the coming week, I've got to start storing the product I plan to retire in boxes, without being too disruptive.

Despite ordering more bookcases than I thought I needed, I'm coming up short a couple of cases. Staples hasn't had another sale, so I may be forced to buy them at full retail price -- Horrors Greeley!

I've been questioning myself about this new expenditure. Is it likely that my book sales will go up significantly? Am I just wasting money?

The answers are, probably not and probably not. No, there won't be an immediate payoff, but I think I'll get the money back over the course of year or so. Not much return on the investment. Will have to carry that debt for awhile.

But getting new inventory to spark sales was only half the reason I did it. The other reason is because I wanted to do it.

That's important. I keep making the case, and it seems stronger every year, that keeping interest and enthusiasm in my business, and avoiding burn-out, is at least as important as making money.

I've done the job with graphic novels. I'm carrying the best I can get, already.

So I'll enjoy having the best mystery and S.F. and paranormal romance and mainstream and classic fiction as I can assemble. I'll have fun thinking about it, ordering it, displaying it, talking about it.

I want to be sure I don't just immediately fill up the extra space. I want at least half of it to be available for better displaying.

I started moving toys around, and realized that I have lots of henchmen. I'm going to term this, "The Henchmen Problem." Out of every set of toys, there are the main characters, the secondary characters, and the henchmen. One of my strategies in avoiding losing money on toys is to sell them all sets: want the main characters(?) buy the henchmen too. Or I price the henchmen a little lower and the main characters a little higher.

But I still end up with the odd Road Warrior henchmen, or Matrix henchmen. Tons of Star Wars henchmen.

If I toss all the leftover henchmen in a box, I probably increase my available space by a significant percentage.

I was able to winnow down the sports and non-sports by about 25%. I need to winnow it down by 50%; so I'm simply taking dead brands and/or brands that only have a few packs left. Stick the rest in boxes.

A significant percentage of my back issues are now packaged as 'sets.' They don't sell all that much better than individual back issues, but they feel more complete, somehow. More like something that someone might actually want some day. But I often have multiple sets -- up to five or six. I really need only one or two each, so I'm going to play CONCENTRATION and try to winnow them down.

It wouldn't seem like have much space left in the store; but I have a pretty good idea how much I can squeeze together existing product without adding the overwhelming visuals.

It will probably be a month or two of moving stuff around until I'm finally satisfied. And that's all right. Gives me something creative to do.

I also figure, down the road, it might be easier to sell a 'bookstore' than a comic, game, toy or card store. Indubitably.

I was reassured by the quality of the new books. I ordered them more for price and availability than anything -- but of course, I was ordering the best books I could find within those perimeters. So the actual quality was a nice surprise.

I'm obviously never going to have enough room to be a full bookstore -- even a bookstore that can make headway on non-fiction. But I can have a very decent selection of fiction, handpicked, of all kinds, and maybe that will be enough.

Brother Mike.

My big brother, Mike, was home for four days. He's six years older than me, and went off to college when I was in the sixth grade and has lived back east ever since, so this was like the longest sustained time I've spent with him since.

Interesting to get his perspective on the family, which is both similar and completely different than me.

Took him out to the Badlands east of Bend, which coincidentally had just opened on Sept. 1, for foot traffic.

He's enamored of Sante Fe and plans to retire there, and I figure he got some of his love of the high desert from growing up on Bend.

No real news here, just that I've been in a contemplative mood about family and memory.

Or don't....

One of the responses to yesterday's "Stimulate Me" post, was what I would consider the standard conservative Republican answer:

"Only long term fixes that do not add to debt can change consumer sentiment which in turn stimulates the economy. Examples are permanent tax incentives and pro business legislation."

First of all, I question how "pro-business legislation" and "permanent tax incentives" would affect "consumer sentiment," and aren't instead just further giveaway corporate welfare.

But even more, it got me to thinking about how all these hard political positions -- frankly on both the right and the left -- seem to have little real world effect on my business.

I try to envision just what 'tax incentives and pro business legislation' would actually help or hinder my everyday business, and I'm damned if I can come with anything significant.

Admittedly, I'm a pretty small business, but I can scale up 5 or 10 times and still see little or no effect from legislation of any kind. Most of what I read about are Economy of Scale measures, that -- when you get right down to it -- benefit BIG, BIG corporate entities.

I'll tell you what, I'll feel sorry for corporations when they start paying the same rate of taxes that I do. But as far as I can see, while corporations have the legal rights of individuals they sure don't pay the same rate of taxes as individuals.

Sure, it would dramatically contain their growth. Maybe they'd have to charge the same prices as me. Maybe they'd have to try harder to get their workers, if the playing field was more level, and they'd have to offer higher wages and benefits.

I know, I know -- they'd send even more of their work overseas...but what kind of fucked up answer is that? Not that it seems to matter -- they have been doing that as fast as they possibly can already.... If that is their answer, then tax them out of existence.

But it seems to me that many of those "pro business legislation" and "tax incentives" helped enable corporations to move their workforce over the borders, instead. We're broke, and we can't buy the damn goods, and the conservative answer seems to be -- "let's do more of that, because it's worked so well for the average citizen...." Average citizen being someone who earns more than 100k a year.

I'm not just slamming just the Republicans here. Both parties are enabling big corporate interests above all else -- who have returned the favor by buying influence. I haven't seen much trickle down in the way of wages and benefits for the working class. They're completely arrogant about management bonuses and wages. But they've managed to frame the argument in a way that the little guy -- small business owners and blue collar voters -- have often chosen a side that if they would just think about it a little more -- has absolutely no benefit to them.

None.

Tax increases? 3% more for people who earn five times what I earn? As a small business owner, I'm supposed to be concerned about that?

The argument against the local and state measures that supposedly drive away 'business' don't really apply to the vast majority of businesses -- even businesses five or ten times my size. (Or if they do, those businesses are so shaky from other factors, that the legislation is the least of their problems.) Which is why they probably aren't crucial for a business staying or leaving, growing or shrinking.

I'm just saying, I wish that voters would take a step back, and instead of solidifying into hard political positions would ask themselves -- do these measures actually affect my position in any way? Or are they scaled at a much higher level of income and size? And why the hell am I voting for a position that -- if anything -- probably detracts from my own best interest?

I say this as a liberal -- but I think most voters on all sides of the political spectrum ought to try to look past dogma and look at what's actually happening on street level.

Stimulate me.

My liberal political inclination is to agree with Krugman that the original stimulus wasn't big enough, and we need another one.

My store based experience tells me something different.

I don't know how many parallels one can draw between a small Mom and Pop and the national economy. Maybe it's just not comparable.

But the principle seems the same to me, just much bigger in size.

So what happens when I have a downturn in the store?

Well, I could borrow money and spend it on inventory and infrastructure. There isn't much doubt that would spark higher sales -- maybe even to the point that I might increase employees hours, etc.

But, more often, the correct thing to do is to take my lumps, work my way through the problem, CUT spending and wait for a turn around.

By all accounts, such a response is largely responsible for Great Depressions, and may result in a continuation of the Great Recession.

Still --- Like I said, as a small business owner I'm leery of trying to spend my way out of trouble.

I will say this, though. IF I were to decide to got that route, to try to stimulate business -- I would go BIG. I wouldn't just double the size of my store, I'd quadruple it. I think I'd be much more likely to get the response I need from that, than from smaller, incremental increases. Even doubling in size probably wouldn't achieve the results I need.

So, while getting way BIGGER, and spending considerably more money to get there, would be a huge risk, it might very well work.

Whereas, I think increasing spending tentatively would just be a waste.

break-even summer.

I hate to be cliched about it, but it really does remind me of the Rolling Stones song:

"You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want,
But if you try sometimes you just might find
You get what you need"

Going into May, we'd beaten the previous year month by month for seven straight months. I thought a modest goal would be to match last year's total's through summer. Instead, we fell a full 10K below last year over those four months.

And, as a result, the store broke EXACTLY even. Which is kind of weird, even if it does happen a lot.

It felt like there were quite a few tourists, but it felt like they weren't spending as much money.

Hard to know. I don't have anyone else to compare it to.

Still, with the kind of slowdown we've had, I have to figure that getting through with all bills paid and no debt, is accomplishment enough -- after the initial disappointment.

I'm going to try to go about saving money in a different way. I've arranged to have an automatic withdrawal from my business checking account on the same day every month. It's a substantial number, an even number, and one that I'm pretty sure I can reach though it won't be easy.

We'll see how THAT works.

Emptiness multiplier.

O.K. Can we get something out of the way?

Complaining about not enough parking spaces and or biking racks is kind of strange.

Yogi Berra was once asked why he didn't go to a popular nightclub spot anymore. "No one goes there," he said. "It's too crowded."

Here's a thought experiment.

If we start with 10 parking places, and only 5 people using them, our goal would be to increase business until all 10 spaces are full. If we succeed in getting all ten spots filled, we can expand it to 15 parking spots.

But where does it end? At what point do we say, "Hey, we've succeeded. We've filled the available spots...."

How many times have you passed on going into a store or a restaurant because no one was there? How many times have you decided to go into a store or a restaurants because it looks busy?

When I worked in gas stations in high school and college, we often parked our own cars at the pumps just to draw people in.

I have a theory that there is a 'emptiness' multiplier. That is, 10% empty feels like twice that much. 25% empty feels like half empty. Just check out most downtown cores, which can often feel dead, even though if you count the shops more than half are full.

We shouldn't underestimate the importance of traffic -- car, bike, or feet. It's all part of the experience. God help downtown if the "mall" proponents ever get their way. These issues have popped up over and over again, over the years. You can't kill them. Newcomers are especially prone to thinking closing the streets would be a good idea.

If you take the same traffic that downtown Bend has, for instance, and transfer it to the downtown of Baker, which has streets that are twice as wide, it would look like half as many people. It will feel relatively empty.

If you take a 1000 sq. ft. store, and stock it with product that covers only 500 sq. ft., you will look empty. The same 500 sq. ft. of product will look full in a smaller store, or a store designed to block off the other half, or whatever.

Being busy and full and hopping is what we want.

But their very interest in downtown comes from the fact that they like it -- and yet they are willing to change the very downtown they say they like with very iffy and dangerous ideas.

Sometimes being busy is a good thing.

Mega-Bike Rack versus ....?

My reaction to the new bike rack in front of Thump Coffee.

1.) It's rather large and colorful.

2.) There are already bike racks every hundred feet or so on the downtown sidewalks. (They look like green n's and are permanently ensconced in the sidewalk). Or, in a pinch, you can use the trees. (Not enough! according to the comments on the Source. Strange....I kept track yesterday, which you got to figure is close to the height of biking season, and there was never more than half the racks filled.... Nor, is the rack in front of my store filled, oh, 95% of the time...).

3.) There is a good half the year in Bend when all but the truly crazy don't ride bikes. If nothing else, maybe they can move them out between mid-Oct. and mid-April.

4.) It cost over 3500.00? What? That's ridiculous.

5.) If they're sending a message, I have no problem; but I'm not sure we need the same type of bike rack on every block. Make sure there is a REAL need and that it isn't just.....

6.) P.C.

Downtown Comings and Goings,

You know how when you drive into a small town, sometimes the only mass market restaurant they'll have is a Subway Sandwiches? They must have a killer model; to be able to niche themselves next to gas stations and convenience marts.

So what does it say about downtown Bend that the Subway is leaving after only a year or two? Or that the owner would rather locate in Redmond?

This is a guy who owns 5 Subways, so one presumes he knows what he's doing.

Is this a reflection on the restaurant situation? (Too many? Too fancy? Not enough casual type dining business?) Or on downtown businesses as a whole?

I do believe that people WANT to be downtown, and that it doesn't always make sense for them to be there. Sure if rents had plunged to normal levels, say only 25% more than the rest of Bend. But I'm guessing most tenants are paying twice as much as they'd have to pay most places.

There is a certain -- shall we say? -- dedication one needs to be in downtown Bend. A willingness to wait a little longer, try a little harder, pay a little more to be there.


NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN

The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESSES LEAVING

Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Urban Minx, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Double Dipper

I was ready to write a long post about how Bend is falling into a double dip recession.

Turns out, I don't have to.

Bend was never in any danger of a double dip.

How could I have been so wrong?

According to Moody's Economy.com we never left the FIRST dip.

We're still in recession. Hmmmmmm.......

..................................

The next book comes out WHEN!!?

Spent the weekend reading after all.

Name of the Wind, Patrick Rothfuss, turned out to be completely addicting. Best fantasy I've read in years; the kind of book I'm always hoping to find but rarely do.

Of course, the next book isn't coming out until next year, which must mean he's a once every four year guy. Arrgghh. I was smart enough to wait on the Bujold, Sharing Knife series, until it was close to finishing; got caught by the frakken George Martin series.

This is more or less why I read more mysteries and S.F. So as not to get stuck in a series. Fantasies are just different than S.F. as far as reading series out of order. I have no problem reading mysteries out of order.

But waiting for years and years for the next fantasy book to come out has derailed many an author for me. Most of them aren't THAT good. There is an interesting similarity to comics in that. I can't tell you have many times I've said, "I read the first five issues and liked it."

So, I can see the customer thinking, if you liked it, why did you just read the first five issues?

Well, because by the time enough more issues have come out, I've gone to the NEXT thing, and so on.

When I save up long series, I find myself balking because it's TOO much.

Anyway, I'll read Martin when he finishes, but once again I'm learning that fantasy is dangerous. if you're looking for complete stories.

Monday musing.

Sub-conscious at work. We installed some Trex decking -- well, not trex but trex-like -- a couple of years ago, and have had a bit of trouble with staining. Not too much, but it seems unfortunate. We also have had a couple planks seemed to disintegrate on our front steps.

Woke up wide-awake at 6:00 this morning, with the knowledge -- the certainty -- that the metal and ceramic frogs we have lining the steps were the cause of the damage. That some chemical is leaching out of them onto the trex.

I'm moving the frogs to the garden, and we'll see if my sub-conscious was correct.

**********

The trouble with tailgaters is -- they drag you unwillingly into their moron universe.

You can avoid most morons.

If someones talking at a movie, you can get up and move, or get a refund, or whatever. If someone is talking loudly on a cell phone in your store, you can move to another part of the store or turn up the stereo, or something.

I mean. They're out there. But you can get around them.

Tailgaters? You can't avoid them. And if you have to stop suddenly, they'll crash into your backend, and you get dragged into their twittish mindset, dammit.

**********

If they ever carry out the death sentence on Randy Guzek, they'll need a wooden stake.

**********

Looks like the temperatures will get high enough and dry enough later in the week to do a little fall fertilizing on my new lawns. There are some bad patches, which is disheartening. I really don't think the landscaping guys did enough soil preparation. I've let the lawns be a little high all summer, hoping to retain moisture. Give them a nice solid start.

**********

Someone in England built a spiral staircase that is a bookshelf for an architectural contest that is absolutely awesome.

One of those things I would buy if I was a millionaire. (These days, I probably need to be a billionaire....)

But really, why couldn't someone build a bookstore from scratch that was based on that idea? Tower of London Books -- something like that. Have a few suits of armor in the corners, a Sword in a Stone. Come on, why not?

I'm pretty sure in some alternate universe, I've done that.

**********

I don't know if it's the drizzley weather, or what. But I've been thirsty for reading over the weekend. Read a book in one day (Cauldron, Jack McDevitt) and made a good start on a second book (Name of the Wind, Patrick Rothfuss). I want to dive into the book again today, but I'm going to try to get out of the house, somehow. Maybe go visit the other bookstores? That'll keep me in the mood, but get me out of my room.

I managed to mow the lawn, and broke off to watch True Blood and Rubicon. True Blood seems to be over before you know it, and Rubicon -- well, I don't think I've ever seen a show with more dialogue silences, and walking into rooms and sitting down business nothing happening but everything happening. I don't think Rubicon is long for this world, but I keep watching...

Waiting for the "new".

A young couple from Arizona comes in the store, and the girl asks, "What do people do for work around here?"

I laughed.

"What?"

"You asked the right question. It's the question that everyone asks. The answer is, pretty much tourism and retirement. But we had a few boom years in building around here, and you're seeing the results of that." I then proceeded to tell her that Bend has had the biggest decline in housing prices in 303 metro areas in the last two quarters.

"Must be a good time to buy, " she said.

I nearly slapped my forehead. "Um....yeah, if you think two quarters of decline are the end of it...."

Thing is, I've been getting the same response now for over 2 years! Prices have declined therefore it must be a good time to buy!

It's like seeing a sinking oceanliner and thinking, "Gee, I bet we could book a passage really cheap."

**********

Since when does not raising prices make you a hero?

Let's get real here. If Mt. Bachelor was charging 929.00 in '07, it's because they that's how much they thought the market would bear. And if they lowered prices to 799.00 in '08, it was because they found out to their bottomline that in fact the market wouldn't bear it.

Holding the line on prices is what everyone is doing.

**********

I tried to find the source for this information, but I can't. Still, I know the information was as presented, and it came from one of the major economic blogs.

There wasn't a single existing house in this here United States of America that sold for over 750k last month. Nor the month before.

Not one.

I don't know about you, but I find that extraordinary.

All the folks who thought that Bend would be insulated from a crash by 'rich' folk, I wonder what they're saying now?

**********

I think we've been lucky downtown with our vacancy rates. But I think that may be coming to an end. Let me preface my prediction by saying; while I wasn't one of those who thought downtown would empty out -- in fact, I sort of predicted that we'd get some people using this slowdown as an opportunity to move downtown; I admit I did expect there to be net loss.

Instead, as the Comings and Goings list documents, we've had more people move in than move out.

But I really think that won't continue.

I think we've sucked up the available talent. And the economy isn't really getting much better, in fact, I think it's a double dip recession in Bend by any real measure that matters. (More about that at the end of the month.)

A couple of articles in the Sunday Bulletin dovetail nicely with my thoughts.

One: the basic question that the Arizona couple asked, and which anyone with any common sense is going to ask, "What do people do for work around here?" still holds true. It was always the flaw in our growth.

While the Venture Conference would like to make the case that Bend is rife with high-tech, I wonder if that's true. Anymore than any many other towns. The basic isolation that Bend suffers in the industrial zone, holds true for high-tech, as well, though in a more subtle way.

I've taken to saying, that when one of these high-tech wizards first move to town, they'll ask me about something 'new' I've never heard of: "What's that?" I'll ask, and sure enough within a few weeks I'll come across something that refers to it.

Then six months after they get here, they walk in my store and ask for something 'new' and I'll say, "Why, yes! I just got it in!"

And after about a year, they'll come in and the 'new' thing will be on my counter and they'll ask, 'What's that?"

It seems inevitable and inexorable. Sure, they still have access to the internet and the media and they can still talk to their friends. But what seems to have happened was: when they moved here from San Fran, or Seattle or Portland, they were swimming in the milieu of the 'new', and they picked it up by osmosis.

After they've been wading the shallow cultural waters of Bend for awhile, it simply becomes impossible to stay cutting edge. I suppose if they travel every weekend, they might keep up, but then -- geez, why stay in a town that is at least 4 hours from anyplace they need to be on a regular basis? Wouldn't it be easier to Live There, and Play Here?

(Shallow cultural waters? I still use the examples of Zines and Art Toys, both well established trends in the metro areas, and both still pretty much a mystery in Bend. I see it, with my own eyes.)

So we come back to the real reason for Bend's existence -- tourism and retirement. Which, as I always say, are minimum wage jobs.

So when I look at the lay of the employment land, and the housing situation, and the business climate -- I don't see a whole lot of uptick in the near future...

I think we've had lots of people hanging on.

The Commercial Real Estate situation still hasn't set in: anything built in 2007 or 2008 won't become a problem until a couple more years -- assuming that there isn't a whole lot of "pretend and extending." Which I think there will be. Anything to hold off the consequences of building huge retail buildings with high rent.

Rents have come down, but maybe not enough. And with the astronomical cost of downtown real estate in the boom years, if they come down too far, the whole edifice becomes untenable. There is going to be a huge struggle between rents and vacancies for the foreseeable future.

The Compass Commercial guy in the paper is quoted as saying;

"It seemed like every time we take a step forward, there's a step back that matches it....I think we're hitting a point where we're not going to go any lower."

So I agree with the first part of that statement, but disagree with the second part. Especially downtown. I think we've been lucky to keep picking up willing retailers. I can't see how that is going to continue....

I could easily be wrong. Predictions are risky, and you can throw this back in my face in a couple of years. But I think we're going to see a net loss of retail downtown by the end of next year. Hopefully, not too drastically.